New CSI Climate – The Hit of the . . . . Season! · 2016. 10. 24. · CSI Climate – The Hit of the . . . . Season! Dr. Mark C. Trexler, [email protected] Director, Climate

CSI Climate – The Hit of the . . . . Season!Dr. Mark C. Trexler, [email protected], Climate Strategies and Markets Det Norske Veritas North America

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Black Swan Events


The CSI Climate End Game


A Changing Atmosphere Predicted Level of Business-as-Usual Scenario in 2100

Current Level

Pre-Industrial Level

Current Temperature


Rongbuk glacier in 1968 (top) and 2007. The largest glacier on Mount Everest’s northern slopes feeds Rongbuk River.

Where We Are: Glaciers


Where We Are: Sea Ice


Where Are We Headed?

Last time T was 2ºC above 1900 level was 130,000 yr BP, with sea level 4-6 m higher than today.

Last time T was 3ºC above 1900 level was ~30 million yr BP, with sea level 20-30 m higher than today.

EU target ∆T ≤ 2ºC


Number of Days Over 100ºFRecent Past, 1961-1979

Higher Emissions Scenario, 2080-2099

Lower Emissions Scenario, 2080-2099

Where We’re Headed: Heat


Projected Change in Precipitation by 2080-90s

Where We’re Headed: Precipitation


Change in sea surface pH caused by anthropogenic CO2 between 1700s and the 1990s.

Where We’re Headed: Ocean Chemistry


Where We’re Headed - Sectoral Impacts


Climate Change Is a Game Changer


Surely We’ve Heard Enough?


What’s Different? It Became an Economics Debate

Near Term Mitigation Cost impacts (NTM) – the costs (or benefits) of acting aggressively in short term

Long Term Mitigation Cost impacts (LTM) – the costs (or benefits) of waiting to be forced to act later

Near Term Climate Change impacts (NTCC)– the costs (or benefits) of near-term climate impacts

Long Term Climate Change impacts (LTCC) – the costs (or benefits) of future climate change:

++=f

+++=

LTCC+NTCC+LTM+NTM=f cost

The Economics of Climate Change:


What’s Different? GHGs Aren’t Typical Pollutants


What’s Different? Carbon = Energy, and A Lot of It

Coal

UnConventional Oil

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

Atmospheric CO2 PPM

CO

2 PP

M

Current Levels

Pre‐Industrial CO2

IPCC 2‐3C range Conventional Oil 50/50 catastrophic CC


What’s Different? The Math

Then: 278 ppm Now: almost 400 ppm

Where do we stabilize? 350, 450, 550, 650?

Stabilizing today requires a 70% reduction in global emissions

That’s almost 20 Gigatons per year

What is a Gigaton?


A Gigaton Is:

CO2


A Gigaton Is:


What’s Different? When You Can Declare Victory

0The Number of Currently In Power Governments

That Will Still Be in Power When the Political Price Has to be Paid for Inaction on Climate

After Pursuing Potentially Costly Climate Change Mitigation Measures, The Number of Currently In Power Governments That Will Still be in Power to

Reap the Political Benefits


So Tackling Climate Change is Different!


The Reality?

We Simply Don’t Know How to Get From Here to There When it Comes to Mitigating Climate

Change

This Isn’t a Technology Problem!

It’s the Most Complicated Economic, Policy, Ecological, and Technical Risk

Management Problem We’ve Ever Seen


Is It an Impossible Problem?


Again and again, the impossible problem is solved when we see that the problem is only a tough decision waiting to be made.

Robert Shuller


For Better or Worse, Decisions Are Inevitable


Real Problem + Failure to Act =




Climate Change Is a Game Changer, and so (Will Be) Climate Change Policy!


A Complex Business Risk Landscape


y-axis: Probability (0 to 1)

-10% -3% -1 %

Do Companies Perceive Risk?

x-axis: % Impact on Corporate Welfare (Stock price or other measure)

NPV Wait to Act

NPV Act Now

For Company


Do Companies Understand the Risks?


The Policy Reality

© Rube Goldberg Inc.


Carbon Management Drivers (as of 2008-2009)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Year

Car

bon

Man

agem

ent D

river

s

Brand, Supply Chain, GreenMarkets, Cost Reduction

Climate Change Impacts

Strategic Positioning forUncertainty, Mandates

Disclosure, Reporting,Litigation

Targeted Policies &Measures

National Cap and Trade

An Unstable Foundation


Carbon Management Drivers (as of today)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Year

Car

bon

Man

agem

ent D

river

s

Brand, Supply Chain, GreenMarkets, Cost Reduction

Climate Change Impacts

Strategic Positioning forUncertainty, Mandates

Disclosure, Reporting,Litigation

Targeted Policies &Measures

National Cap and Trade

An Unstable Foundation


Barrie Pittoc, Australian Climate Scientist

Documents

New CSI Climate – The Hit of the . . . . Season! · 2016. 10. 24. · CSI Climate – The Hit of the . . . . Season! Dr. Mark C. Trexler, [email protected] Director, Climate