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New Consciousnessin TransformationalNeo-Growth Society

Prof Sirkka Heinonen

Finland Futures Research Centre FFRC/UTU”Futures Studies Tackling Wicked Problems”

Keynote 12th June 2015 Turku

My BackgroundProfessor of Futures Research since 2007, Research Director

at Finland Futures Research Centre (FFRC), University of Turku

WFSF Conference Chaos and Complexity Turku 1993 (FSFS, Secretary General))

PhD Helsinki University 1999 – Life Beyond Information Society Turku 1999

Chief Research Scientist at VTTtechnology foresight, future of citiessustainable knowledge society,digital world, social media, innovation

President of the Finnish Society forFutures Studies (FSFS) 2011 –

Chair of Helsinki Node ofthe Millennium Project 2001 –

Member of the Club of Rome 2005 –

Guest Professor at USTC (10/2013-10/2016)

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1. Futures Consciousness as Sensor of Change

2. Transformation and Rhizomatic KnowledgeCreation

3. Neo-Growth with No Limits to Learning

4. New Consciousness – Transformative Scenario of aNeo-Growth World

Structure of My Keynote

1. Futures Consciousnessas Sensor of Change

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Cogito, ergo sum (René Descartes)

----> Cogito futurum,ergo homo futurus/futura sum

The concept of futures consciousnessis pivotal in creatingthe futures mindset,capable of tackling wicked problems.

It originates from futures thinking, futures planning,futures studies, creating futures literacy – the capacity to“read” signals, but also to “feel/experience” futures(immersive futuring)

Futures Mindset

FUTURES CONSCIOUSNESSFutures Mindset?

Futures thinking

Futures literacy

Futures intelligence

Futures consciousness

time

leve

lofo

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atio

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© Sirkka Heinonen

Futures wisdom

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Futures research is not just exploring alternativefutures, but also proactively making the preferredfutures happen.

This means awareness of continuous change!

How can we anticipate & understand change andcreate foresight knowledge?

2. Transformation andRhizomatic Knowledge Creation

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Future is about Change: it can be incremental, systematic,radical, fundamental or transformational.

The “Grand Theory of Futures” is concerned with thetheories of change and transformation processes.

If traditional social sciences see change caused by economyand culture, futures studies relies on systems theory –change occurs from a complex interplay of a multitude ofdifferent factors.

Futures studies sees change not as incremental butincreasingly as transformational.

Transformation means systemic, fundamental, radical andprofound change, affecting the total system, not just itsparts.

It is also a quantum leap – transition – to another level ofthinking and consciousness, in our society, on our planet,but essentially in our intertwined relation betweenhumans, nature and technology.

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One of the challenges for futures studies is tosuggest novel approaches to create, gather andanalyze future-oriented information.

The philosophical concept of rhizome by Frenchphilosophers Gilles Deleuze and Félix Guattari canbe used to outline a rhizomatic model of knowledgecreation as a framework to observe the alternativefutures – even transformational ones.

In rhizomatic model of knowledge sharing and creation,the knowledge is not disseminated systematically orlogically based on a hierarchic binary tree-model, butrather following the organic way of rhizomes to grow in alldirections, or water to run in all cavities around it.

Tree as a system fixes an order, and its logic is “tracing and reproduction”, whereas arhizome can be seen as a map with multiple entryways.

(Deleuze and Guattari: A Thousand Plateaus 1987)

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The rhizome model offers explanations forunexpected outside forces and unorthodox couplings(Thanem, 2005)

The concept of rhizome as an analogueto e.g. describe the current evolution of Internet as acatalyst for meanings society (Heinonen, 2015)

andthe ways an individual is connected to the worldthrough a rhizomatic communication weave(Heinonen & Ruotsalainen, 2014: 9)

Futures knowledge inherently is rhizomatic

- it is a map that, at least to some extent, remains beyond tracingat the present moment, because of the present moment.

The prevailing ways to create futures knowledge are inclined towardssystematic thinking in tree-like ways ---> applying rhizomatic modelof knowledge creation could answer the need to depict complexitybetter.

If the world is a rhizomatic system, how can it be observed as one?Are the methods we are using more tree-like than rhizome-like?

What could the rhizomatic model of knowledge creation be inpractice when researching the alternative futures?

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3. Neo-Growthwith No Limits to Learning

Does change always imply growth?

In our growth-orientated thinking growth is oftensynonymous to economic and technological growth –“More is Merrier”.

However, the growth that wastes energy and resources,also endangers species on earth, including us humans.

Growth is much broader a concept than mere economicgrowth – it encompasses all things human, even beyond

that – all living forms on earth.

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Unsustainable growth is not a preferred future - progressshould be adjusted to the Limits to Growth and seen ascovering all spheres of life.

On the other hand, there are No Limits to Learning,increasing futures consciousness.

The growing change in our values and lifestyles towardsimmaterial renewal and wealth is a desirable future.

This kind of societal Neo-Growth model à la Pentti Malaskamay also yield new techno-economic innovations, whilebasing its foundation in deep cultural and ethical pursuits.

unlike degrowth, neo-growth does not rejectgrowth but emphasises its positiveconnotations

1) environmentally sustainable, and2) merges economic growth with cultural, socialand ”spiritual” growth

Neo-Growth = attempt to re-establisha holistic vision of growth

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4. New Consciousness – TransformativeScenario of a Neo-Growth World

We sketched four scenarios, all transformational in anongoing Tekes Project “Neo-Carbon Energy”.

“New Consciousness”

The most extreme scenario probes the boundaries andpotentials of our futures consciousness and willingness toadopt a profound change of thinking and lifestyles, and torenew ourselves, not just our energy system towardsrenewables.

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§ 2050: zero emission energysystem has to be in place if globalwarming is limited to +2°C.

§ 2030: only emission freetechnologies can be taken in use.

§ 2015: solar and wind become theleast cost options in large part ofthe World.

WHY?

/ A COMPLETELYNEW RENEWABLEENERGY SYSTEM

WHERE ENERGY ISEMISSION-FREE,COST-EFFECTIVE

AND INDEPENDENT.

NEO-CARBON ENERGY is one of the Tekes strategicresearch openings and the project is carried out incooperation with Technical Research Centre of FinlandVTT Ltd, Lappeenranta University of Technology LUTand University of Turku, Finland Futures ResearchCentre FFRC.

Neo-Carbon Energy Project studiesa) a 100 % renewable energy

system of solar, wind andstorage, and

b) societal implication of the newenergy system

©Jim Dator

Discipline

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Neo-Carbon Energy Project

Transformative Energy Futures 2050(all transformative!

all based on renewable energy!)

Neo-Carbon EnablingNeo-Growth Society

Neo-Growth -> What kind of growth we want?Neo-Carbon -> How carbon emissions can be reducesdand used as a resource?Third Industrial RevolutionProsumerismPeer-to-peer society

© Sirkka Heinonen

• The main objective of the foresight part is to studypossible socio-economic futures related to neo-carbonenergy system.

• What kinds of societal – economic, cultural, political andlifestyles-related – changes does the neo-carbon energysystem promote and enable?

• Emphasis on citizen-perspectives andpreferred transformational futures

• To be linked with quantified energy data

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1) Radical Startups

2) Value-Driven “Techemoths”

3) Green DIY Engineers

4) New Consciousness

Neo-Carbon Scenarios

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New Consciousness =the Most Radical of the Four Scenarios

• The ecological crisis:warming climate + species extinctions

• “World War III”:escalated numerous small conflicts of “hybrid warfare”

• Ubiquitous ICTs: people are connected to the internetpractically all their waking hours.

Virtual and physical have become inseparable.

• It was understood that environmental and social problems were sohuge that partial, practical and technological solutions werenowhere enough to solve them.

• Humans’ relationship to nature, to each other and to themselveshad to be completely rethought (-> values of deep ecology as the norm)

• People conceive themselves no more as separate individuals, butdeeply intertwined with other humans and as parts of nature.

• The change was facilitated by all-encompassing digital networks.

New Consciousness Scenario

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Does this kind of transformation require a precedingmassive catastrophe to be a possible and preferable future,instead of remaining a ubiquitous utopia?

Future bears an existential risk(risk of extinction of animal species and humanity).

In order to solve these practical problems, we need toconsider certain difficult theoretical questions:e.g. ‘Would it be good or bad if less people (or animals)existed in the future?’ and‘Can an increase in population size compensate for adecrease individual well-being?’ (IFTF)

• FS can experiment with applying methods that are not frequentlyused.

• Various combinations of different methods, both qualitative andquantitative, can be tested.

• Experimental futuring is a niche in FS that is increasingly gainingattention.

• Experiencing the future(s) can also be achieved through seriousgaming. Serious gaming in FS means playing a game that has asocietally important goal – challenge to be tackled from thefutures orientated point of view. (IFTF)

TRANSFORMATION IN METHODOLOGICAL APPROACHES?

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Experimentation with a CLA (Causal Layered Analysis)

game to elaborate Four Transformative EnergyScenarios of NEO-CARBON Energy Project 11th June 2015

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The business-as-usual is the most dangerous thing

Perhaps the most wicked global problem is us humans?

Deep futures consciousness is needed to maketransformation happen

TO CONCLUDE

You never change things by fighting theexisting reality. To change something,build a new model that makes the existingmodel obsolete.

Buckminster Fuller(1895-1983)

New Consciousness Scenario in Transformational Neo-Growth Society

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Thank YouAnd Have A Flourishing Future!

Sirkka Heinonen (at) utu.fi

REFERENCES

Dator, Jim (2012). Dream Society? Ubiquitous Society? No Society? Futures for Finlandand the world as seen from a small Pacific Island. Conference of the Finnish Society forFutures Studies. 16th August, 2012, Mikkeli.

Glenn, Jerome, Gordon, Theodore & Florescu, Elizabeth. 2012. State of the Future.Millennium Project. Washington. http://www.millennium-project.org/millennium/2012SOF.html

Glenn, Jerome & Gordon, Theodore (2009). Futures Research Methodology V 3.0.Millennium Project. Washington. http://www.millennium-project.org/millennium/FRM-V3.html

Hall, Peter (1998). Cities in Civilization. Culture, Innovation, and Urban Order. London,1169 p.

Heinonen, S. (2015). Future of the Internet as a rhizomatc revolution towards digitalmeanings society. Forthcoming. Springer.

Heinonen, Sirkka (2014). What is Futures Reseach and Scenario Thinking? Lecture atUniversity of Buenos Aires (UBA), Departamento de Computación 18th November 2014.During the Secondment at FLACSO and CIECTI, Buenos Aires (November 2014). 50 pptslides. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cY4NGAfdhJU

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Heinonen, Sirkka (2000). Prometheus Revisited. Human Interaction with nature throughTechnology in Seneca. Doctoral dissertation. Helsinki University. CommentationesHumanarum Litterarum Vol 115. The Finnish Society of Sciences and Letters. Helsinki.

Heinonen, S. & Ruotsalainen, J. (2014). Sirpaleinen symbioosi: MEDEIA-hankkeenTulevaisuusklinikka I “Media ja journalism 2030. Heikkoja signaaleja ja uusia alkuja”4.4.2014. Tulevaisuuden tutkimuskeskus. Tutu e-julkaisuja 8/2014.http://www.utu.fi/fi/yksikot/ffrc/julkaisut/e-tutu/Documents/eTutu_8-2014.pdf(Accessed 5 June 2015)

Heinonen, Sirkka & Ruotsalainen, Juho (2014). Toward Ubiquitous Learning 2050. 2050visions of the futures of education, work and technology. 48 p. AEL, Helsinki.https://www.ael.fi/sites/default/files/files/ael_futuriikki_eng_10-2014_final_net.pdf

Malaska, Pentti (2010). A More Innovative Direction Has Been Ignored. In:Understanding Neogrowth - An Invitation to Sustainable Productivity. TeliaSonera FinlandPlc. Helsinki, p. 200-210.http://www.sonera.fi/media/13069ab55806de22e8955bc2a3f1afeab17b28bd/Understanding_Neogrowth.pdf

Meadows, Dennis (2012). Policy Implications of Limits to Growth in the 21st Century.Club of Rome Conference, Bucharest.