New challenges for Social statistics, EurostatLuxemburg, 23 September 2008 New approach to migration statistics in Lithuania NEW APPROACH TO MIGRATION

New challenges for Social statistics, Eurostat Luxemburg, 23 September 2008

New approach to migration statistics in Lithuania

NEW APPROACH TO MIGRATION STATISTICSIN LITHUANIA

DALIA AMBROZAITIENĖ

STATISTICS LITHUANIA



OVERVIEW

MIGRATION STATISTICS IN LITHUANIA

MEASURING UNDECLARED MIGRATION

RETURN MIGRATION SURVEY

STATISTICS ON REMITTANCES

FUTURE WORK



CHALLANGES FOR STATISTICS LITHUANIA

Persons leaving the country difficult to count due to their absence, significant share of emigrants do not declare emigration (free movement of persons within the enlarged EU, mobility of population, abolition of border control in the Shengen area)

Problems of statistical observation of outflows; undeclared status of movements, short–term migrant became emigrant (change of place of the residence for more then 12 months)

Combination of administrative data sources does not ensure sufficient quality of emigration statistics



INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION STATISTICS

ADMINISTRATIVE DATA

HOUSEHOLDSSURVEYS

POPULATION REGISTER DATABASE

UNDECLARED

EMIGRATION

SURVEY

STATE SOCIAL INSURANCE DATABASE

DECLARED MIGRATION FLOWS UNDECLARED MIGRATION FLOWS

EVALUATION OF TOTAL MIGRATION FLOWS

UNDECLARED

IMMIGRATION

SURVEY



NEW DEVELOPMENTS IN MIGRATION STATISTICS

UNDECLARED EMIGRATION SURVEY

UNDECLARED EMIGRANT

IS A PERSON WHO HAS NOT DECLARED HIS/HER DEPARTURE FROM THE COUNTRY AND HIS/HER USUAL PLACE OF

RESIDENCE IS IN AN OTHER COUNTRY OR S/HE IS INTENDING TO STAY IN ANOTHER COUNTRY FOR A

PERIOD 12 MONTHS OR LONGER




Data on emigrants who not declared their departure are in population register database with any changes

Auxiliary information

(population number by municipality, breakdown of population by sex, age group and urban/rural area)

USUAL RESIDENTS OF LITHUANIA =

EMPLOYED POPULATION +

UNEMPLOYED POPULATION +

INACTIVE POPULATION +

EMIGRANTS WHO HAVE NO DECLARED THEIR DEPARTURE




Annual household survey, I quarter (2006, 2007, 2008)

Framework - LFS by supplementing module on undeclared migration

One-stage simple random size, sampling frame – Population register



UNDERCLARED EMIGRATION SURVEY

QUESTIONNAIRE

Questions about PERSON WHO EMIGRATED

New country of residence;

How many years /months ago s/he left Lithuania

MAIN DEMOGRAPHICS AND SOCIO-ECONOMICCHARACTERISTICS

Age, sex

Educational attainment

Occupation before leaving

Current status (worker, student, other)

REASON FOR EMIGRATION

FAMILY - whether all family left, where and with whom are children, who (relatives, grandparents, etc.) take care about children if both parents emigrated




Data obtained compared (at personal level,

according to confidentiality rules) with databases of Population Register and the State Social Insurance Fund Board

Accuracy: coefficient of variation for the number of emigrants who had not declared their departure ranged about 15 percent



UNDECLARED MIGRATION SURVEY

RESULTS – FOR EVALUATION

OF UNDECLARED AND TOTAL EMIGRATION FLOWS

EACH SECOND –THIRD EMIGRANT DECLARES HIS/HER DEPARTURE

FROM LITHUANIA



EMIGRATION FLOWS FROM LITHUANIA 2001–2007, thousand

Evaluation based on the Undeclared emigration survey and the data of declaration of place of residence.

7,3 7,111,0

15,2 15,6 12,6 13,8

15,87,4

11,7

17,3

32,5

15,2 12,7

0

10

20

30

40

50

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Persons , who declare their departure Persons , who not declare their departure

23,1

14,5

22,7

48,1

27,8 32,5

26,5



IMMIGRATION SURVEY 2008

Focusing on assessment of undeclared return migration

To estimate number and main characteristics on return migrants

Reasons for return to Lithuania

Module in LFS

Field work -2008, final results -2009

Pilot results- II q 2008, coefficient of variation ranged about 17 percent



STATISTICS ON REMITTANCES

Bank of Lithuania starts publishing remittances of private individuals (migrants)

Collaboration between the National bank and Statistics Lithuania

Balance of payments and Household survey (ICT)

The cash received from the family members residing abroad or cash remittances to those living in foreign countries or residing there on the temporary basis

COMPENSATION OF EMPLOYEES AND WORKERS REMITTANCES, TRANFERED – 3,6 million LTL (3.7 percent, compared with GDP)



CHALLENGES FOR STATISTICS LITHUANIA

Great need to develop specific studies

HOW TO INTEGRATE statistical estimates of undeclared international migration to migration and demographic statistics

Estimated figure is used ADITIONALLY

to register-based migration statistics



FUTURE WORK

Find the best solution aimed at further development of migration and demographic statistics

Collaboration with scientific community, international experts, Eurostat and NSI’s on methodological issues

Full implementation of European Regulation on Community migration statistics

Exchange of data on migrants between EU member states

Population Census 2011

THANK YOU !

www.stat.gov.lt

[email protected]

Documents

New challenges for Social statistics, EurostatLuxemburg, 23 September 2008 New approach to migration statistics in Lithuania NEW APPROACH TO MIGRATION