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The quality of Norwegian data for analysis of return and circular migration. Kåre Vassenden, Statistics Norway ECE Work Session on Migration Statistics Geneva, 17-19 October 2012. Background. Increasing demand for higher quality statistics on international migration. -return migration - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Kåre Vassenden, Statistics Norway
ECE Work Session on Migration Statistics
Geneva, 17-19 October 2012
The quality of Norwegian data for The quality of Norwegian data for
analysis of return and circular analysis of return and circular
migrationmigration
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Background
Increasing demand for higher quality statistics on international migration
In short: ’more advanced statistics on international migration’
- return migration - circular migration - intra-EU mobility- measuring emigration using data collected by the receiving
country- the EU regulation on migration statistics
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Motivations
• Study and elaborate the relevant conceptual framework
• Find out more about the quality of – the Norwegian migration statistics
– the Nordic migration statistics. The effect of Nordic cooperation
• Strike a blow for the variables ’country of last/next residence’
• Express a wish for better dissemination of statistics on Internet
• Draw the attention to the superior level: the population balance
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Outline of the presentation
1. A general, theoretical discussion
2. Information on the situation in Norway
1. Including comparisons with other countries, in particular the Nordic
countries and the Netherlands.
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Indicators of quality
• Measuring quality – a real challenge
• Both qualitative and quantitative data
• Dates of migration (length of stay)
• Coverage of country of previous/next residence
• (The consistency between migration figures from different countries may indicate something about the quality)
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Non-Norwegian statistics used
• Data available on web sites– national databanks– the Nordic databank– Eurostat’s databank– direct request to some few NSIs
• Stored in spreadsheets, further processed in SAS
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Different perspectives observed on the treatment of international migration in statistics
• 1. National perspective The main interest is the dichotomy between the country of interest and the
outside world. ’Country of last/next residence’ is unimportant ’Citizenship’ goes a long way to describing the migration flows However, comparison with other countries is interesting and useful
• 2. International perspective• ’Country of last/next residence’ is fundamental
• Simplified version Seen from one country. International comparability does not have highest
priority
• True version With an birds eye perspective. International comparability is essential
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One country or more in the model
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Different return concepts
AB
C
Out-returnIn-return
‘False return’
True return
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The case of Norway
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Important frame conditions
• A well-functioning PIN
• A population registry with administrative authority
• Nordic agreement on population registration
• Long data history
• Broad scope of relevant registers and variables
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The correction factor
Growth_P = Population 31.12. – Population 1.1.
Growth_C = Births – Deaths + Immigration – Emigration
The correction factor as percentage =
Growth_P – Growth-C / (the highest of G-P and G-C) *100
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Size of correction factor – an indicator?
Year Nor-way
Swe-den
Den-mark
Fin-land
Ice-land
Green-land
Faroe Is-
lands Nether-
lands Belg-
ium Slo-
venia Austria
1996 -0.6 -2.4 1.5 7.9 -4.5 -20.6 0.0 6.1 12.5 -50.9 0.0 1997 -3.9 -9.4 1.4 7.3 5.2 -49.3 0.0 2.9 17.9 18.7 0.0 1998 -1.2 1.0 -0.2 8.8 2.8 81.8 0.0 0.9 0.3 50.1 0.0 1999 0.1 -6.3 3.1 5.6 0.5 -77.7 0.0 3.3 -2.9 89.6 0.0 2000 0.1 -0.8 3.2 -1.7 2.6 -53.1 0.0 2.6 1.2 5.6 0.0 2001 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 2.5 -3.6 15.2 0.0 4.4 0.9 50.1 21.2 2002 0.2 -0.7 2.6 0.3 -2.9 -38.2 0.0 3.7 5.7 34.0 2.9 2003 -0.2 -0.2 5.8 0.4 -3.9 22.5 0.0 11.3 6.9 8.4 6.4 2004 -0.2 -0.3 0.9 0.3 2.2 -36.8 -5.4 13.2 4.9 -13.7 5.6 2005 -0.3 -1.1 0.9 0.9 0.2 60.3 7.8 16.1 7.5 0.0 10.6 2006 -0.2 -0.1 0.8 1.2 0.2 4.3 0.0 22.8 5.2 0.0 3.4 2007 -0.2 -0.1 -9.1 1.2 0.5 11.8 -55.4 10.2 4.3 -99.3 -2.1 2008 -0.1 -0.4 -10.2 -0.2 -2.1 13.1 -0.3 6.4 12.4 0.0 -1.2 2009 -0.1 -0.5 -23.0 0.1 -4.0 -1.5 25.4 4.5 10.4 0.0 2.4 2010 -0.3 -0.3 -17.7 0.1 8.4 -20.1 47.2 -0.7 2011 -0.4 0.2 -31.6 -0.8 1.4 0.0 0.6
Sources: National statistical databases and the Nordic statistical database.
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An uneven distribution of length of stay indicates low accuracy
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40
Length of stay in Norway (months)
15
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Norway
Netherlands
Sweden
Finland
Denmark
Percentage unknown country of next residence
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0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Norway – not Nordic
Norway – all
Sweden – not Nordic
Sweden – all
Percentage unknown country of next residence – emigration to Nordic countries excluded
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Recent developments and discoveries
• A separate variable distinguishes between – ‘notified emigration‘ and– ‘emigration by administrative decision’
• Turned out that country of next residence had been imputed in some cases
– > The real percentage unknown is even higher
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Percentage of emigration events registered by administrative decision, by citizenship
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
NorwayNetherland
GermanyUK
FrancePoland
LithuaniaSpain
CanadaUSA
AustraliaIndiaBrazil
ThailandRussia
RomaniaChina
PakistanPhilippines
Somalia
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Summary and conclusions (1)
• Norway has good preconditions for producing statistics on
return and circular migration
• The basic administrative system provides the necessary
data and the possibilities to exploit them
• However, the administrative definition of migration events
does fully comply with the statistical wishes
– Strict criteria for being registered as emigrated
• Emigration to other Nordic countries is handled by a system
that provides for full coverage of country of next residence
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Summary and conclusions (2)
• Emigration events to countries outside the Nordic ones have
substantial coverage problems at the variable country of
next residence
• The biggest problems relates to countries that are natural to
include in circular migration studies
• Totally dependant on the administrative system for
improvements. Possibilities within Statistics Norway are
depleted
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Further work on the problem of unknown country of next residence
• Obtain some qualitative information on the issue from other countries
• Collect more statistics for comparison purposes
• Develop the internal quality statistics
• Inform the Population registry about the findings, and follow up with further contact
• Learn more about the projects for exchange of national insurance data between EEA countries
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Thank you!Thank you!
Kåre VassendenStatistics NorwayDivision for Population [email protected]+47 62 88 52 94