NAVIGATING THE PERFECT STORMA New Playbook for the A.I.-Big Data Era

Gary DickersonPresident and CEO, Applied Materials

EXTERNAL USE

PC + Internet

Mobile + Social Media

A.I. Big Data

A Brief History of Computing…

1998 2008 20181988

Mainframe Computing100,000s of units

100 Millions of units

Billions of units

Trillions of units

“Data is to this century what oil was to the last one: a driver of growth and change”– The Economist

“In the future, every business

will be in the technology business”

AGRICULTURE TRANSPORTATION HEALTHCARE EDUCATION

High bandwidth, high speed connectivityto move data between edge and cloud

1 Trillion

edge devices

added in next

15 years

Explosion of

data generation

Shift from

general purpose

to workload

specific

computing

SOURCES: Arm, Applied Materials

5x

90%

increase in next 5 years

generated by machines(source: Arm)

New Computing Approaches are Needed to

Take Advantage of All the Data

GENERAL PURPOSE COMPUTING(GOOD AT MANY THINGS)

A.I. COMPUTING (CUSTOMIZED FOR SPECIALIZED TASKS)

Deep instruction pipeline,

out-of-order execution, branch

prediction, pre-fetching, …

Extreme ParallelismSimple operations on multiple

chunks of data in parallel

Multi-level on-die cache architectureHigh Speed MemoriesTo improve memory latency

and memory to logic bandwidth

64 bit or higher precision data pathsLower PrecisionTraining and inference at lower floating point

(16 bit) and integer (8 bit) precision

1 Billion

IP CAMERAS

Today’s U.S.

DATACENTERS

Average

POWER PLANT

25TWh 90TWh 10TWhSOURCES: Reolink, EIA

10 to15% of global electricity supply could be used by A.I.-Big Data by 2025

TR

AIN

ING

INF

ER

EN

CE

CLOUD EDGE

NEEDED VS. CURRENT SOLUTION (GPU)

75xthroughput and

1,000xperformance per watt

Limited impact on roadmap

NEEDED VS. CURRENT SOLUTION (CPU)

50x better latency and

75x throughput

NEEDED VS. CURRENT SOLUTION (CPU)

50x better latency and

500x throughput

Major advances

at edge and in

cloud needed to realize potential

of A.I. without

impacting world’s

energy equation

IMPROVEMENTS IN…

For 40 Years…

105

104

103

102

10

1

COMPONENT PER IC

RE

LA

TIV

E C

OS

T/C

OM

PO

NE

NT

1 10 102 103 104 105

1962

1965

1970 PPAC

POWER

PERFORMANCE

AREA-COST

14

me

ters 600kW

$110M

MOORE’S LAW If built in 1980…

PERFORMANCE IMPROVEMENTS OVER TIME (VS. VAX-11/780)

100,000

10,000

1,000

100

10

19

78

19

86

20

03

20

11

20

15

20

18

25%per year

52%per year

23%per year

12%per year

3.5%per year

End of Dennard Scaling

Limits of parallelism of Amdahl’s Law

End of Moore’s Law

VAX-11/780

TIME BETWEEN LOGICNODES IN YEARS

>5

2.5

2

1.8

SOURCE: Computer Architecture: A Quantitative Approach, Sixth Edition, John Hennessy and David Patterson, December 2017 SOURCE: Bernstein

Performance Improvements are Slowing

A New Playbook for Semiconductor

Design and Manufacturing is Needed

ENABLED BY

Advanced packaging

New structures / 3D

New ways to shrink

New architectures

New materialsPPAC

POWER

PERFORMANCE

AREA-COST

Renaissance of Hardware Innovation

INITIAL DEPLOYMENT ADDRESSES

AcceleratorsGPU, TPU, ASICS, FPGAs

NowCloud training and inference

Automotive inference

Near MemoryDDR, SRAM, HBM, NAND, X-point

Now to 2 yearsCloud and edge

Training and inference

New MemoryMRAM, ReRAM / CeRAM, PRAM, FeRAM

2 to 5 yearsInitially edge

May migrate to cloud over time

In-Memory ComputeAnalog, ReRAM, PCM

2 to 5 yearsInitially edge

May migrate to cloud over time

Novel HPCQuantum, Synaptic

5 to 10 years Cloud + TBD

Eco-system Collaboration is Key

TODAY: Serial / compartmentalized interaction between key parts of eco-system

“Von Neumann” mindset “Neuromorphic” mindsetD

ES

IGN

INT

EG

RA

TIO

N

ED

A

MA

NU

FA

CT

UR

ING

EQ

UIP

ME

NT

MA

TE

RIA

LS

OPPORTUNITY: Parallel development to get powerful tools to designers faster

DESIGN

INTEGRATION

MANUFACTURINGEDA

EQUIPMENT

MATERIALS

vs.

Tainan Display Lab

State-of-the-art R&D capability

for advanced displays

OPENED JUNE 2019

APPLIED’S INVESTMENTS TO ACCELERATE INNOVATION

Maydan Technology Center

Advanced 300mm R&D lab

Advanced Packaging

Development Center

Fully-integrated 300mm advanced

wafer level packaging lab

META Center

Expanded R&D capabilities

focused on ‘lab-to-fab’ acceleration

SCHEDULED TO OPEN IN FALL 2019

R&D Investment

~15% of revenues annually

($2.1B in 2019)

Applied Ventures

>$250M assets

under management

of collaboration between LETI and Applied Materials

EXTERNAL USE