Ca Perfect Storm

Perfect Storm To Hit Job Markets!Perfect Storm To Hit Job Markets!Whole-Community Career & Workforce Development StrategyWhole-Community Career & Workforce Development Strategy

PERFECT STORMPERFECT STORMTo Hit Job Markets!To Hit Job Markets!


22 Aging Aging PopulationPopulation

33 Upskilling Upskillingof Jobsof Jobs

44 Unprepared UnpreparedWorkforceWorkforce

Storm WarningsStorm Warnings4 Converging Megatrends4 Converging Megatrends

11 Great Great RecessionRecession


• The global economy is recovering fromThe global economy is recovering from

the worst economic storm in a centurythe worst economic storm in a century• Mass layoffs, many jobs in jeopardyMass layoffs, many jobs in jeopardy• Despite massive stimulus, recovery isDespite massive stimulus, recovery is

slow and falteringslow and faltering• The economy is vulnerableThe economy is vulnerable

• The global economy is recovering fromThe global economy is recovering from

the worst economic storm in a centurythe worst economic storm in a century• Mass layoffs, many jobs in jeopardyMass layoffs, many jobs in jeopardy• Despite massive stimulus, recovery isDespite massive stimulus, recovery is

slow and falteringslow and faltering• The economy is vulnerableThe economy is vulnerable

Megatrend 1:

The Great RecessionMegatrend 1:

The Great Recession


Megatrend 2:

Aging PopulationPredictable Demographics

Megatrend 2:

Aging PopulationPredictable Demographics

• Birth rate declining since 1967• Marriage & childbirth later, fewer children• Boomers who can are retiring (1947-64) • Labour force participation rate declining• Immigration can’t offset natural decline

• Birth rate declining since 1967• Marriage & childbirth later, fewer children• Boomers who can are retiring (1947-64) • Labour force participation rate declining• Immigration can’t offset natural decline


Percent of Canadian Population15-64 Years of Age

Percent of Canadian Population15-64 Years of Age


2011 421,0002016 947,0002021 1,552,0002026 2,079,0002031 2,763,000

2011 421,0002016 947,0002021 1,552,0002026 2,079,0002031 2,763,000

Projected Worker ShortfallProjected Worker Shortfall

Rick Miner, February 2010, People Without Jobs, Jobs Without People[Figures projected nationally from Miner’s Ontario (38%) medium growth estimates]

Rick Miner, February 2010, People Without Jobs, Jobs Without People[Figures projected nationally from Miner’s Ontario (38%) medium growth estimates]

• Vast majority of 2031 work force has already been born• Immigration 2010 – 280,000 (family, credentials, competition)• Under-represented - poor, aboriginals, women, disabled

• Vast majority of 2031 work force has already been born• Immigration 2010 – 280,000 (family, credentials, competition)• Under-represented - poor, aboriginals, women, disabled


Megatrend 3:

Upskilling of JobsAccelerating Knowledge Economy

Megatrend 3:

Upskilling of JobsAccelerating Knowledge Economy

Rick Miner, February 2010, People Without Jobs, Jobs Without PeopleRick Miner, February 2010, People Without Jobs, Jobs Without People


New & Changing JobsNew & Changing JobsThere’s never been a better time to imagine career prospects!There’s never been a better time to imagine career prospects!

New & Changing JobsNew & Changing JobsThere’s never been a better time to imagine career prospects!There’s never been a better time to imagine career prospects!

• Nano-mechanicNano-mechanic• Old age wellness managerOld age wellness manager• Memory augmentation surgeonMemory augmentation surgeon• Weather modification policeWeather modification police• Waste data handlerWaste data handler• Social networking workerSocial networking worker• Personal brander/communications Personal brander/communications advisoradvisor• Stem cell bank managerStem cell bank manager

Adam Gordon, August 2009, Jobs of the Future, Science and Adam Gordon, August 2009, Jobs of the Future, Science and Technology Enabled Employment 2020-2030Technology Enabled Employment 2020-2030

• Nano-mechanicNano-mechanic• Old age wellness managerOld age wellness manager• Memory augmentation surgeonMemory augmentation surgeon• Weather modification policeWeather modification police• Waste data handlerWaste data handler• Social networking workerSocial networking worker• Personal brander/communications Personal brander/communications advisoradvisor• Stem cell bank managerStem cell bank manager

Adam Gordon, August 2009, Jobs of the Future, Science and Adam Gordon, August 2009, Jobs of the Future, Science and Technology Enabled Employment 2020-2030Technology Enabled Employment 2020-2030


Megatrend 4:

Unprepared WorkforceEducation System and Employers

Megatrend 4:

Unprepared WorkforceEducation System and Employers

The Talent PipelineThe Talent Pipeline


National HS graduation rate 80% (69% on time last year in Ontario – 77% one year later - Miner 2010)


The Pipeline LeaksThe Pipeline Leaks



60% of HS grads (48%) register immediately for post-secondary programs (King, 2009, Who Doesn’t Go To Post-Secondary Education?)







25% of post-secondary students dropout by the end of the first year. A similar percent change programs or majors (Miner, 2010, People Without Jobs, Jobs Without People)









60% of those who register in post-sec programs eventually graduate (Parkin, Baldwin, 2009, Research Note #8, Persistence in Post-Secondary Education in Canada: The Latest Research, Millenium Scholarships)




60% of those who register in post-sec programs eventually graduate (Parkin, Baldwin, 2009, Research Note #8, Persistence in Post-Secondary Education in Canada: The Latest Research, Millenium Scholarships)



Of 100 students in the educational pipeline in grade 9 each year …Of 100 students in the educational pipeline in grade 9 each year …

End of the PipelineEnd of the Pipeline


Of 100 students in the educational pipeline in grade 9 each year …

29 will graduate on schedule with a post-secondary degree, diploma or certificate







50% will not be in jobs directly related to their majors 2 years after graduation









70% of adults would seek more career information if they could start over




70% of adults would seek more career information if they could start over



More Demanding Labour MarketMore Demanding Labour Market(Upskilling)(Upskilling)


““Over the past third of a century Over the past third of a century allall net job growth in net job growth inAmerica has been generated by positions that requireAmerica has been generated by positions that require

at least some post-secondary education.”at least some post-secondary education.”Pathways to Prosperity, February 2011, Harvard Graduate School of EducationPathways to Prosperity, February 2011, Harvard Graduate School of Education




““Over the past third of a century Over the past third of a century allall net job growth in net job growth inAmerica has been generated by positions that requireAmerica has been generated by positions that require

at least some post-secondary education.”at least some post-secondary education.”Pathways to Prosperity, February 2011, Harvard Graduate School of EducationPathways to Prosperity, February 2011, Harvard Graduate School of Education

““Only 14% of all undergraduate students enroll in STEM Only 14% of all undergraduate students enroll in STEM subjects. 1/3 will switch out of those fields, and only 2 in 5 subjects. 1/3 will switch out of those fields, and only 2 in 5 will graduate with a STEM degree or certification within six will graduate with a STEM degree or certification within six

years. We must do better than that.”years. We must do better than that.”President Obama, June 2011President Obama, June 2011


Student EngagementStudent Engagement

““The United States now has the highest college dropoutThe United States now has the highest college dropoutrate in the industrialized world.”rate in the industrialized world.”

Why?Why?


Student EngagementStudent Engagement

““The United States now has the highest college dropoutThe United States now has the highest college dropoutrate in the industrialized world.”rate in the industrialized world.”

Why?Why?

““Too many students can’t see a clear connection between Too many students can’t see a clear connection between their program of study and labor market opportunities.”their program of study and labor market opportunities.”

Pathways to ProsperityPathways to Prosperity, February 2011, Harvard Graduate School of Education, February 2011, Harvard Graduate School of Education


ConclusionConclusionConclusionConclusion

To avoid being victims of the perfect storm, To avoid being victims of the perfect storm,

communities must equip citizens with the knowledge, communities must equip citizens with the knowledge,

skills, attitudes, and tools to prosper in family-skills, attitudes, and tools to prosper in family-

sustaining 21sustaining 21stst century careers. century careers.

A A “whole-community” “whole-community” commitment to commitment to

career navigation and workforce career navigation and workforce

development is required. development is required.

To avoid being victims of the perfect storm, To avoid being victims of the perfect storm,

communities must equip citizens with the knowledge, communities must equip citizens with the knowledge,

skills, attitudes, and tools to prosper in family-skills, attitudes, and tools to prosper in family-

sustaining 21sustaining 21stst century careers. century careers.

A A “whole-community” “whole-community” commitment to commitment to

career navigation and workforce career navigation and workforce

development is required. development is required.


ChoosingOccupationWorkInformationLists

ChoosingOccupationWorkInformationLists

Career and WorkforceDevelopment

Paradigm Shift

Career and WorkforceDevelopment

Paradigm Shift

LearningSkills

LifeImagination

Introductions

LearningSkills

LifeImagination

Introductions


SolutionSolutionSolutionSolutionImplement in all education and training sites Implement in all education and training sites the best available:the best available:

1.1. experiential career navigation learning experiential career navigation learning programs for programs for allall primary, middle, secondary primary, middle, secondary and post-secondary studentsand post-secondary students




2.2. career exploration and planning systemcareer exploration and planning system




2.2. career exploration and planning systemcareer exploration and planning system3.3. electronic portfolio system electronic portfolio system (all levels plus (all levels plus

adults)adults)





adults)adults)4.4. course planning system course planning system (ILP for every student)(ILP for every student)





adults)adults)4.4. course planning system course planning system (ILP for every student)(ILP for every student)5.5. online networking system to connect online networking system to connect

students with informed dreams to employers students with informed dreams to employers seeking talentseeking talent





adults)adults)4.4. course planning system course planning system (ILP for every student)(ILP for every student)5.5. online networking system to connect online networking system to connect

students with informed dreams to employers students with informed dreams to employers seeking talentseeking talent

Then mobilize the entire community toThen mobilize the entire community tooptimize utilization of all of the above.optimize utilization of all of the above.


Helping students imagine the future they want to Helping students imagine the future they want to createcreate

““Your imagination is a preview of life’s coming attractions.” Your imagination is a preview of life’s coming attractions.” Albert Einstein Albert Einstein

““I wish The Real Game was MANDATORY for all students. The information I wish The Real Game was MANDATORY for all students. The information and life experience it provides are more valuable than some required and life experience it provides are more valuable than some required

coursework. Giving our students the tools they need to be successful in “the coursework. Giving our students the tools they need to be successful in “the real world” should be our first priority.” real world” should be our first priority.” Tanya McKay, First Northern Bank, Tanya McKay, First Northern Bank,

Woodland, CA, April 2011Woodland, CA, April 2011


Career CruisingCareer CruisingCareer CruisingCareer Cruising

Career InformationCareer Informatione-Portfolio (ILP)e-Portfolio (ILP)Course PlannerCourse Planner

Career Cruising NetworkCareer Cruising Network

Career InformationCareer Informatione-Portfolio (ILP)e-Portfolio (ILP)Course PlannerCourse Planner

Career Cruising NetworkCareer Cruising Network


Case StudyCase Study• 99thth grade NC student - bright, but hated school grade NC student - bright, but hated school• Couldn’t wait for school day to end to dropCouldn’t wait for school day to end to drop another transmissionanother transmission• Exposed to F4K, Career Cruising, Real GameExposed to F4K, Career Cruising, Real Game• Passion and talents for things mechanicalPassion and talents for things mechanical becomes evidentbecomes evident• Receives invitation from companiesReceives invitation from companies• John Deere relationship evolves (mentorship,John Deere relationship evolves (mentorship, job shadowing, summer jobs)job shadowing, summer jobs)


Case StudyCase Study• 99thth grade NC student - bright, but hated school grade NC student - bright, but hated school• Couldn’t wait for school day to end to dropCouldn’t wait for school day to end to drop another transmissionanother transmission• Exposed to F4K, Career Cruising, Real GameExposed to F4K, Career Cruising, Real Game• Passion and talents for things mechanicalPassion and talents for things mechanical becomes evidentbecomes evident• Receives invitation from companiesReceives invitation from companies• John Deere relationship evolves (mentorship,John Deere relationship evolves (mentorship, job shadowing, summer jobs)job shadowing, summer jobs)

Happy EndingHappy EndingJohn Deere paid tuition for 2-year Small Engine Repair course John Deere paid tuition for 2-year Small Engine Repair course at Community College then hired student at $50K, loan free.at Community College then hired student at $50K, loan free.


Expected ResultsExpected ResultsTo be measuredTo be measured

Expected ResultsExpected ResultsTo be measuredTo be measured

• More informed, purposeful, engaged, and higherMore informed, purposeful, engaged, and higher achieving students, thus happier teachers andachieving students, thus happier teachers and parentsparents• Reduced truancy and bullyingReduced truancy and bullying• Higher productivity with reduced recruiting andHigher productivity with reduced recruiting and retention costs for employersretention costs for employers• Reduced costs for support programs (alternativeReduced costs for support programs (alternative education, drug and substance abuse, socialeducation, drug and substance abuse, social assistance, welfare, corrections)assistance, welfare, corrections)• More engaged, self-reliant, resilient citizensMore engaged, self-reliant, resilient citizens• Pride of accomplishment shared by communityPride of accomplishment shared by community


ConsequencesConsequencesof staying the courseof staying the course

ConsequencesConsequencesof staying the courseof staying the course

• Ongoing unacceptable levels of studentOngoing unacceptable levels of student underachievement and disengagementunderachievement and disengagement• Continued faltering in school to work transitionsContinued faltering in school to work transitions• Continued out-migration of talentContinued out-migration of talent• Increasing recruitment challenges for employersIncreasing recruitment challenges for employers• Increasing number of storm victims of all ages inIncreasing number of storm victims of all ages in the job marketthe job market• Reduced community prosperity (ripples)Reduced community prosperity (ripples)

Provincial Budget Impact: Government revenues (personal income andProvincial Budget Impact: Government revenues (personal income andBusiness taxes, HST), education, social assistance, corrections, health Business taxes, HST), education, social assistance, corrections, health


Career Cruising SolutionCareer Cruising SolutionAll education/training institutions, employers & community agenciesAll education/training institutions, employers & community agencies

Career Cruising SolutionCareer Cruising SolutionAll education/training institutions, employers & community agenciesAll education/training institutions, employers & community agencies

• Network Software and ImplementationNetwork Software and Implementation• Career Cruising and Portfolio SystemCareer Cruising and Portfolio System• Real Game Series (all levels)Real Game Series (all levels)• Career Cruising PrimaryCareer Cruising Primary• Course PlannerCourse Planner

Harmonized, whole-community, collaborationHarmonized, whole-community, collaboration


PERFECT STORMPERFECT STORM

Together, let’s implement a whole-Together, let’s implement a whole-community career navigation and community career navigation and

workforce development strategy to workforce development strategy to weather the … weather the …