Naveed Iqbal Akhter Solar Ltd Photovoltaic Technology. How PV help in energy crisis

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Naveed Iqbal Akhter Solar Ltd Photovoltaic Technology. How PV help in energy crisis Slide 2 ENERGY USE Worldwide Energy Consumption 1980-2030 Slide 3 Where does our energy come from? Share of total Primary Energy Supply in 2010 10,376 Mtoe IEA Energy Statistics Slide 4 ELECTRICITY - Energy used for Electricity Generation by Fuel Type, 2003, 2015, 2030 Slide 5 35.6% 41.6% Increasing percentage of Total World Energy used for Electricity Generation Quadrillion BTU Electricity is becoming more important Slide 6 Focus on Electricity World Electricity Generation by Fuel Slide 7 Focus on Electricity Sources of Electricity in Pakistan Slide 8 Sector wise distribution of Electricity Focus on Electricity Slide 9 ENERGY PRODUCTION Fossil fuels Electricity consumption increase +100% between 2003 2030 Main fuel type : Natural gas and Oil Reserves are running out + Demand outstripping supply Prices are rising Oil, 400 Gas, 250 Coal, 100 Coal, 35% Gas, 20% RE, 18% Nuclear, 17% Oil, 10% Coal Gas Oil 260 yrs 70 yrs 50 yrs Emission of CO2 Million metric tones equivalent Increase of temperature causing climate change 14/02/20149 Need sources of data Slide 10 Supply and Demand of Electricity in Pakistan Supply and Demand Position: 2008-2020 (MW) 2008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020 Existing Generation 15,903 Proposal / Committed Generation 5304,2357,22610,11510,55613,30713,52014,60716,13418,448 Total Existing/Commi tted Generation 16,48420,13823,12926,01826,45929,21029,42330,51032,03734,351 Expected Available Generation 13,14616,11018,50320,81421,16723,36823,53824,40825,63027,481 Demand (Summer Peak) 16,48417,86819,35220,87422,46024,12625,91928,02930,22335,50434,91837,90741,132 Surplus/Deficit Generation -3,338-1,758-849-60-1,293-758-2,381-3,621-4,593-8,023-7,437-10,426-13,651 Source: Private Power and Infrastructure Board - Govt. of Pakistan Electricity Deficiency chart Supply and Demand of Electricity in Pakistan Slide 11 Core Issues of Electricity in Pakistan 45% Population without Electricity Demand and Supply Gap Expensive Sources of Electricity Slide 12 Expensive Installation Expensive Distribution Ultimate Solution Standalone Solar Home System Slide 13 PV Power Plants Generate enough electricity to provide 15000 Homes Revenue stream commences from 7 th month of start of project Commercially Feasible at tariff of 18cent/KWh or 15 cent/KWh at an increment of 2% per annum for 20 years Required Loan at soft interest rate of 2% Land Cost should be very nominal Capital investment required:- 35 M US $ for 10 MW capacity Slide 14 PV Power Plants Generate enough electricity to provide 15000 Homes Revenue stream commences from 7 th month of start of project Commercially Feasible at tariff of 18cent/KWh or 15 cent/KWh at an increment of 2% per annum for 20 years Required Loan at soft interest rate of 2% Land Cost should be very nominal Capital investment required:- 35 M US $ for 10 MW capacity Slide 15 Net Metering Incentive for consumer investment in PV generation system Low Cost easy administered Required arrangement with local electricity provider instead of state Feed in tariff required to announce. Net metering is connection of small renewable energy generating system to Grid Slide 16 Slide 17 Slide 18 Population Without Electricity More than 45% population without Electricity. Slide 19 19 Current 2010 Revised Plan 2030 Primary Energy Mix Slide 20 The Future Is Bright Example of cost recovery on an installation amortised over 25 years. Assumes an increase in fossil fuel costs of 5% pa. PV generated per kwh Fossil generated per kwh Slide 21 Solar Energy How much is available? The suns rays provide enough energy to supply 10,000 times the TOTAL energy requirement of mankind. So, how do we harness it? Solar Thermal Photovoltaic The ULTIMATE source. Slide 22 Photovoltaic Possible materials to make PV cells CiGs Copper Indium Gallium Diselenide Polymers CdTe Cadmium Telluride Silicon Amorphous Thin Film Mono crystalline Multi crystalline Solar power market share by technology Slide 23 The Chain Metallurgical Grade Silicon Electronic Grade Chunks Ingot Bars Wafers Modules Sand Strings Cells Slide 24 Market Size By 2010, there is realistic potential for $30bn in solar power system sales Slide 25 Production Cost Improvements Thinner wafers mean greater efficiency in price AND performance Slide 26 Cost Breakdown Produced in Low labour cost area 10.5 % 2.6 % 8.9 % 78 % (Labour cost $2/hour) Slide 27 Cost Breakdown Produced in High labour cost area 9%9% 12 % 10 % 71 % (Labour cost $10/hour) Slide 28 Price Trend Estimate of global average solar module prices US$/watt Slide 29 Viability Over 2 billion people in the developing world have no access to electricity. For these people, PV is probably the most economical power source today. It is anticipated that within the next 5 to 10 years, PV will become cost competitive with traditional power sources in countries with extensive electrical infrastructure (like the US and Europe). Slide 30 Rising Oil Prices Slide 31 Future Developments Improved crystallisation processes for high quality, low-cost silicon wafers Advanced silicon solar cell device structures and manufacturing processes Technology transfer of high efficiency solar cell processes from the laboratory to high volume production Reduction of the silicon wafer thickness to reduce the consumption of silicon Stable, high efficiency thin-film cells to reduce semiconductor materials costs Novel organic and polymer solar cells with potentially low manufacturing cost Solar concentrator systems using lenses or mirrors to focus the sunlight onto small-area, high-efficiency solar cells R&D is focused on increasing conversion efficiency and reducing cell manufacturing cost, to reduce electricity generation cost. Slide 32 Naveed Iqbal Akhter Solar Ltd Thank you