CO-RIN

1

“NAVAL DESIGN GOES GREEN”

EUROPEAN MARITIME DAY ----------------------

Contribution by PAOLO LOTTI

Head of Industry’s International Relations

FINCANTIERI SpA

Gijon, 20 March 2010

CO-RIN

2

SHIPBUILDING INDUSTRY - SAILING IN ROUGH WATERS

CO-RIN

3

DEMAND TREND – LONG PERIOD

16 17

12

18

12 11 11 10 9

14 15

12 8 11

2319 19

23 2218

3027

22

45 46

38

56

86

44

16

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

NEWBUILDING DEMAND 1980 – 2009 (Mil Cgt)

263 156 18Billion US$)

“Great Depression”

CO-RIN

4

Total Ordersby building area

Total Ordersby segment

2007 – 1st quarter 2010

(*) = since 2007 “EU + N” includes also Bulgaria and Romania

S.Korea

EU 27 + N

Mil. CGT

8.629.132,4

85.9

10.15.7

R.of W

Totale

Japan

China

2007

1.26.53.4

15.9

4.30.5

(% CGT)

Mil.CGT

74%

73%

24%

26%

1%

2%

43.7

85.9

2007 2008

Cruise ships

High-Tech ships

Standard ships

2008 Jan – Mar 2010

5.014.015.0

43.7

7,62.1

R.of.W.

2009

78%

22%

Jan – Mar 2010

15.9

3,2

7% 5% 3% 4%

12% 17%27%

5%

38% 34% 21%

40%

34% 32% 41%

34%

9% 12% 8%17%

2007 2008 2009 Jan - Mar 2010

78%22%

0.5

1.3

3.2

0.20.1

Compared to 2007

- 49%

(*)

1.1

DEMAND TREND – SHORT PERIOD

- 64%Compared

to 2008

2009

CO-RIN

5

IMPACT ON THE EMPLOYMENT

+ 1st tier suppliers + full supply chain

8,950 44,00030,000

Direct

130.000 > 580.000~ 400.000

+ 1st tier suppliers + full supply chainEuropeDirect

26.000 > 80.000 ~ 110.000

75.000 ~ 200.000 ~ 290.000

ALREADY AFFECTED IN EUROPE

TOTAL AT RISK

CO-RIN

6

DEMAND & SUPPLY FORECAST

NEWBUILDING DEMAND 1980 – 2009 (Mil Cgt)

16 17

12

18

12 11 11 10 9

14 15

12 8 11

2319 19

23 2218

30 27

22

45 46

38

56

86

44

16

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Supply 2012

> 50 Mil. Cgt

Expected Demand 2012-2020

25 – 30 Mil.Cgt

GAP~ 50 %

CO-RIN

7

1. No demand upturn can be expected in the short – medium period

2. No direct aid from national state to shipbuilding industry is allowed by European

rules (only limited contribution to research and innovation)

POSSIBLE WAYS OUT

…but

Two initiatives are supported by the European Union and some National Authorities to

stimulate demand :

promotion of “short sea shipping” (only schemes / ships targeting emissions

reductions)

“greening” the EU fleet.

Goal :

to enhance the safety and environmental characteristics of the ferry fleet (to

begin with), largely over-aged,

To support the fleet renewal without creating oversupply.

CO-RIN

8

ROLE OF PRELIMINARY DESIGN

CO-RIN

9

Hydrodynamics

Mechanical & thermodynamics

Heating, cooling,

ventilation

Hull service systems

Electrical systems

Electronic Control

Systems……….

INTEGRATION OF DESIGN TOOLS – SIMULATION TOOLS – ITC

ROLE OF DESIGN TOOLS

CO-RIN

10

Main current research directions

• Effort toward the improvement of simulation codes (CFD) to deliver a complete

toolset for marine hydrodynamics (e.g. Integrated Project VIRTUE “Virtual Tank

Utility in Europe”, 2005-2008(6th FP), BESST “Breakthrough in European Ship and

Shipbuilding Technologies” and other ongoing projects)

• Large, coordinated effort to collect experimental accurate dataset for model scale

validation of numerical simulations (Blind workshops: SIMMAN 2008,

Gothenburg 2005,2010 ). Validated CFD tools can then be used for full scale

prediction

• Increasing effort to develop Simulation Based Design frameworks for the

numerical optimization of the design. The ultimate goal is to help shipyards in

designing better ships.

• SBD is where R&D meets industrial innovation

MARITIME RESEARCH IN HYDRODYNAMICS :

THE BALANCE BETWEEN SIMULATIONS AND EXPERIMENTS

CO-RIN

11

Variable Fidelity & Metamodels

MPI Parallel processing

OptimizationAlgorithms

Accurate CFD tools

EFD validationAutomatic mesh

SIMULATION BASED ENVIRONMENT

CO-RIN

12

CO-RIN

13

• It covers the whole spectrum of flow

studies, from sophisticated flow

physics to applied industrial

computations

• Computational power: CFD is able to

saturate immediately any High

Performance Computing Center

• Its development is fully controlled by

the availability of large computational

resources

• CFD results should be regularly

confronted to experimental data to

avoid any devious evolution towards

Colorful Fluid Dynamics!

WHAT “EXACTLY” IS CFD?

CO-RIN

14

Compared to the aeronautic industry ships are built in very short series studies

devoted to hydrodynamics do not represent a large portion of the budget :

• CFD should be fast, flexible and cheap

Experimental tests are performed at model scale scale effects may be large and mostly unknown!

• CFD should provide a cheap, unique answer to study scale effects

Ship hulls are usually very complex. Propulsors are located in regions characterised by complex flow physics and the influence of appendages should be accounted for!

• CFD should be able to provide reliable simulations of full scale flows around fully appended hulls

CFD AND HYDRODYNAMICS : OPEN ISSUES