Volcanic and Earthquake

Hazards: Living Safely with

Nature’s Perils and the Role of

the Real Estate Sector

CREBA 4th Monthly Business Meeting

27 April 2017

Renato U. Solidum, Jr.

Department of Science and Technology

Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology

BEAUTIFUL PHILIPPINES

www.expedia.com.ph

www.synotrip.com

outoftownblog.com

The Philippines is prone to

natural hazards. We need to

live safely with these hazards.

COMMON NATURAL HAZARDS

IN THE PHILIPPINES

Earthquake Tsunami Volcanic eruption

Typhoon Storm surge Flood Landslide

ONSET OF HAZARDOUS EVENTS

Earthquake –

RAPIDTsunami –

RAPID

Volcanic eruption –

SLOW TO RAPID

Typhoon –

SLOW

Flood –

SLOW TO RAPID

Landslide –

SLOW TO RAPID

Volcanoes in the Philippines(~300 volcanoes: 24 active, 26 potentially active)

Mayon 2009

Pinatubo 1991

Pinatubo lahar, 1995Pinatubo, 1991

1991 Pinatubo Eruption and Subsequent Lahars

(~90 destructive earthquakes, ~ 40 tsunamis for past 400 years)

Earthquake Activity in the Philippines

Recent Large Earthquakes

M7.8 Luzon Earthquake July 16, 1990 M7.2 Bohol Earthquake October 2013

M6.9 Negros Earthquake February 2012 M7.9 Moro Gulf Earthquake and

Tsunami August 1976

FEBRUARY 10, 2017 M6.7 SURIGAO DEL

NORTE EARTHQUAKE

Disaster Losses

• Life loss or Injury

• Damage to buildings, infrastructures, properties,

equipment

• Loss of lifelines – water, energy/electricity,

communication, transport systems (roads,

bridges, rail, seaport, airport)

• Damage to or interruption of food supply

• Loss of public and other critical services

• Loss of business or revenues from business

interruption

• Disruption of economic development

The Goal

• Reduce losses and ensure effective and

efficient performance of critical processes

and delivery of core services with minimal

and acceptable disruption

• Know Hazards and Risks

<- Hazard and Risk Assessment

Influenced by natural and built-environment

• Monitor

<- Monitoring

• Warn and Disseminate Information

<- Communication

• Respond Properly and Timely

<- Mitigation, Preparedness, Response, Recovery

KEY ACTIONS FOR DISASTER

RISK REDUCTION

Photo: Richel Umel /

Reuters

Orchid Subdivision, Iligan City affected

by TC Sendong flood in 2011

Cateel, Davao Oriental affected by TC

Pablo strong winds in 2012

LocationDesign and Construction

Poor Land Use and Building Code Implementation

Land surface modification

• Road construction

• Construction of Settlement

Cherry Hills Subd., Antipolo City, 1999)

Volcanic Hazards

Pinatubo, 1995

PinatuboMayon

Mayon

•Lahar

Ashfall•Lava flow

•Pyroclastic flow

Taal Volcanic Activity Scenario

• Can exhibit various scale

of eruptions from small

steam-driven explosion to

large very explosive

eruption (like the 1754

eruption

• Major hazards: base surge,

ash fall, ballistic projectile

• Duration of eruption: a few

days to months (~6 months

for 1754 eruption)

Taal base surge, 1965

Base Surge

-mass of volcanic materials (ash

and rocks), mixed with hot gases

that flow horizontally away from

the crater at very high speeds (>60

kph); can cross the lake

Taal Base Surge Hazard Map

At risk: ~5000 people on Volcano Island

>>100,000 people around Taal Lake

Earthquake Hazards

TsunamiFire

Ground Shaking Liquefaction

Landslide

Faulting (Ground)

Rupture

Fault

EARTHQUAKE-RELATED HAZARDS

Strike Slip

Normal

Thrust or Reverse

• fractures where rock

movement has taken

place and

earthquakes have

been produced

• active faults are

those that moved in

the last 10,000 years

FAULTS

GROUND RUPTURE

• No construction on

top of an active fault

• House or building

should be at least 5

meters away from

the trace of the fault

2008 M 7.9 Sichuan, China

1994 M 7.1 Mindoro

PHIVOLCS FaultFinder

Hazard and risk information through web applications

• The PHIVOLCS FaultFinder, is a web-based online application to locate the

nearest active fault from a specified location or the named barangay. This

application facilitates easy access to quality data for disaster preparedness, land

use, risk assessment and in real-estate.

URL: http://faultfinder.phivolcs.dost.gov.ph

GROUND SHAKING

• Up and down;

- first felt by people

near the epicenter

- not felt by people far

from epicenter

• Sideways;

- felt after up and down

by people near epicenter

- first felt by people far

from epicenter

GROUND SHAKING EFFECTS

Building Collapse Falling Objects

Scenario: Magnitude 7.2 Along West Valley FaultNUEVA ECIJA

ZA

MB

AL

ES

NCR

BULACAN

RIZAL

CAVITE

LAGUNA

BATANGAS

PAMPANGA

TARLAC

BATAAN

Ground Shaking Intensity

1995 Kobe Earthquake

Building Damage & Casualty EstimatesFOR METRO MANILA FROM A M7.2 WEST VALLEY FAULT EARTHQUAKE

Residential Building (1,325,896)

Damage Heavy -168,300 (12.7%) Partly - 339,800 (25.6%)

Public Buildings

Damage Heavy - 8-10% Partly - 20-25%

10-30 Storey Building

Damage Heavy - 11% Partly - 27%

30-60 Storey

Damage Heavy - 2% Partly - 12%

Population (9,932,560)

Casualty Dead 33,500 (0.3%)

Injured 113,600 (1.1%)

Additional Deaths by Fire 18,000

Metro Manila Earthquake Impact Reduction Study, 2004 – JICA, PHIVOLCS, MMDA

Casualty EstimatesFOR METRO MANILA AND SURROUNDING PROVINCES

FROM A WEST VALLEY FAULT M7.2 EARTHQUAKE

PHIVOLCS Estimate - 2016

LOCATION FATALITIES VERY SERIOUS INJURY

Metro Manila 34,714 17,782

Bulacan 2,848 1,137

Rizal 3,266 1,640

Cavite 4,128 1,961

Laguna 3,094 1,462

Pampanga 187 50

TOTAL 48,237 24,232

CEBU FAULT SYSTEM

(CFS):

Central Cebu Fault

Magnitude 7.0

earthquake

PEIS VIII Cebu City

and Central Cebu

• Loose, water-rich

sediments behave like

liquid during strong

ground shaking.

• Sediments are

rearranged into a

more compact state.

LIQUEFACTION

Subsidence of building, roads

Dagupan 1990

Fissuring of roads

Mindoro 1994

(READY for GMMA

Project, 2013)

Liquefaction PotentialM7.2 West Valley Fault Earthquake

• Areas underlain

by loose and

water-saturated

sediments prone

to liquefaction.

High

Moderate

LEGEND

LANDSLIDE• Down slope movement of rocks, soil and other debris commonly

triggered by heavy rain and strong earthquakes

Effects:

• erosion

• burial

• blockageRoad, Luzon, Philippines1990

Luzon, Philippines1990 Highway, Kumamoto Japan 2016

Sea waves, small to large, resulting from disturbance of

seawater by undersea earthquakes, landslides, and

volcanic eruptions, and meteor impact

March 11,2011 Japan TsunamiFrom Kyodo News

TSUNAMI

PHIVOLCS Geo-PortalHazard and risk information through web application

• The PHIVOLCS Geo-Portal, a web-GIS based portal, enables the

public to view and collate hazard and risk maps.

URL: http://geomatics.phivolcs.dost.gov.ph:8080/geoportal/

SUMMARY• The Philippines is exposed to various natural hazards

that can cause loss of lives, properties, and severely

impact the economy.

• Real estate sector plays an important role in disaster

risk reduction.

• Critical to the safety of houses and buildings would

be their location (hazards) and construction

(resistance to the effects of hazards).

• The hazards and potential impacts can be

exacerbated by man’s modification of the natural

environment or the design and integrity of man’s built

environment.

/PHIVOLCS

@phivolcs_dost

www.phivolcs.dost.gov.ph

Earthquake & Tsunami (24/7):

Tel. Numbers

+632 929-9254

+632 426-1468 loc 124 / 125

Fax number

+632 927-1087

Volcano (24/7):

Tel. Numbers

+632 426-1468 loc 127

Telefax number

+632 927-1095

IEC materials:

+632 426-1468 loc 128

+632 927-4524

PHIVOLCS CONTACT