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Natural catastrophes andman-made disasters in 2016Lucia Bevere, Senior Catastrophe Data Analyst
Key points
2
Losses highest for four years
Highest losses from floods in 2016
Earthquake risk is still largely uncovered
2
1
3
Wildfire losses are increasing4
Losses totalled USD 175 billion in 2016,with 70% uninsured
Source: Cat Perils and Swiss Re Institute
Insured lossesUSD 54bn
Uninsured lossesUSD 121bn
2016
Catastrophe losses highest for four years …
4Source: Cat Perils and Swiss Re Institute
175
430
192
… but still on average
5Source: Cat Perils and Swiss Re Institute
175 175
430
192
Hurricane Matthew
6Source: Cat Perils and Swiss Re InstituteSources: National Hurricane Center, Nasa
Landfall in South Carolina as Cat1
Landfall in Haiti and Cuba as Cat4Victims734, mostly in Haiti
Total lossesUSD 12bn
Insured lossesUSD 4bn
Low number of victims in 2016 …
7
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Source: Cat Perils and Swiss Re Institute
4thlowest
thou
sand
s
8
up to 411 millionpeople affected*
>2 million buildingsdestroyed or damaged
* EM-DAT
… but many millions suffered hardship from the disasterevents
9Source: Cat Perils and Swiss Re Institute
10
A year of many damaging earthquakes
EcuadorTot loss: USD 4bnIns loss: USD 0.5bn
Italy (2 events)Tot loss: USD 6bnIns loss: USD 0.2bn
NZTot loss: USD 3.9bnIns loss: USD 1.7 to 2.4bn
JapanTot loss: USD 25 to 30bnIns loss: USD 4.9bn
Source: Cat Perils and Swiss Re Institute
11
12
Louisiana floodsAugust 2016
• 100 000 displaced
• 13 victims
• damaged
50 000 houses
20 000 vehicles
20 000 businesses
• 10bn economic loss
• 3.1bn insured loss
• Flood events generate the highest economiclosses in 2016
• Highest number of multi-billion flood eventsin the US ever recorded (economic losses),all freshwater floods
• High component of water damage inHurricane Matthew and other storms
A year of severe flooding events
13
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Earthquakes Floods Storms Others
Insured vs uninsured losses from floodevents vs other Nat Cat in 2016, USDbn
Source: Cat Perils and Swiss Re Institute
Insured Uninsured
• Increasing number of pluvial flood events
• Increasing damage from flash floods in urban areas
Trends in flood losses
14
XXXX
• XXXXX
• 590 000 ha of forest burnt
• 88 000 people evacuated
• 19 oil facilities evacuated
• Insured loss: USD 2.8bn (CAD 3.7bn)
• Costliest Nat Cat in Canada ever
• 2nd costliest wildfire loss ever
Fort McMurray wildfires, CanadaMay 2016
15
Costliest wildfires, 1970-2016
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Insured losses from costliest wildfires, in USDbn
Wildfires – a burning issue for insurers?
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0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1980-1989 1990-1999 2000-2009 2010-2016
Insured losses from wildfires, 1980-2016 (USDbn), Australia, Canada, US
3%
Source: Cat Perils and Swiss Re Institute
Making the world more resilient – Fort McMurray wildfires
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With Swiss Re’s CAD300m loss estimatemore than 2200 homesdestroyed in the FortMcMurray wildfire canbe repaired / rebuilt andmore than 400businesses areprotected.
Source: Swiss Re Key Case Management
2200homes
Making the world more resilient
19
Swiss Re’s payment made toCaribbean clients within 12 weeksafter Hurricane Matthew. Withthis money approximately 800properties damaged in the stormcan be repaired / rebuilt.
Swiss Re’s payment of USD 293mon workers compensation claimsprovides wage replacement andmedical benefits to over 19 500people injured at work, globally.(Assuming an average work comp loss of USD15k).
Over 200 000 individualmotor liability claims werepaid by Swiss Re in 2016.(Assuming an average motor liabilityloss of USD 6k).
With Swiss Re’s CAD 300m lossestimate more than 2200 homesdestroyed in the Fort McMurraywildfire can be repaired / rebuiltand more than 400 businessesare protected.
The return period of the 2016 FrenchAgro losses, affecting more than 55kinsured farmers. Swiss Re as theleading reinsurer in this segmentparticipates on this loss with a shareof USD 130m. Subsequent claimsreviews increased the level of comfortwith our clients processes. As a resultSwiss Re will pay the claimed amountand continue to provide capacity,helping to close the protection gap inthe French agriculture segment.
Source: Swiss Re Key Case Management
USD23m
19 500people
200 000claims
2 200homes
1 in 50years
Earthquakes in central Italy
20Source: Cat Perils and Swiss Re Institute
August EQ
October EQs
1915 EQ
High
High
Significant
Moderate
Low
Amatrice Earthquake:24 August, magnitude 6.2
Norcia Earthquakes:October, magnitudes 5.5, 6.1 and 6.6
299 victims
Economic losses: USD 6bn
Insured losses: USD 0.2bn
Seismic Hazard 0.3s PSA(475yr Return Period)
Long history of costly quakes, 1968-2016, in USDbn
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15
1
3
6
8
34
317
1976 Friuli
1976 Friuli2012 EmiliaRomagna
1997 Assisi
2016 Amatrice & Norcia
42009 L’Aquila
2002 Molise
1980 Irpinia
1968 Belice
Source: Cat Perils and Swiss Re Institute
22Amatrice
Amatrice
24Amatrice
High vulnerability of the building stock in Italy
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60% of residential buildingspredate 1974
industrial pre-fabricated buildings,many in seismic areas
700 000
1570First projectof an anti-seismicbuilding
1909First anti-seismicbuilding codein the world
2003Seismic mappingof the entirecountry
1974Anti-seismicconstructionlaw
Insured vs uninsured losses in USD billion
26Source: Cat Perils and Swiss Re Institute* at 2016 pricesEconomic losses = insured + uninsured losses
USD 121billion
sigmaNo 2/2017Natural catastrophes and man-made disasters in 2016:a year of widespread damages
www.institute/swissre.com/sigma
27
Property; -2'649m
Motor; -2'128m
Liability; -1'576m
Non-Life Accident; -385m
Engineering; -343m
Marine; -293m
> USD 300m
USD 150m – 300m
USD 50m – 150m
< USD 50m
P&C RE Claims Payments = World ResilienceUpdate 2016
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7’751m
Impact of 2016 claims payments:
Distribution by cedent country
2’700+ clients in 120 countries
Source: Swiss Re Key Case Management
29
Legal notice
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