Lesson 1 Natural and man-made disasters assessment

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Prof. R. Nagarajan, CSRE , IIT Bombay

GNR 639 : Natural Disaster And Management

Lesson 1

Natural and man-made disasters assessment

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Lesson 1.1

Natural and man-made disasters

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An quantitative and qualitative difference between routine accidents and disasters should be made. It is granted that a disaster is not simply a bigger accident than usual.

Accidents are always unintentional, and they usually result in some damage or injury.

Disaster is defined as a sudden calamitous event bringing great damage, loss, or destruction; a sudden or great misfortune or failure. A disaster may come on quickly and without warning.

In disasters event, organizations have to• Massive convergence with more and unfamiliar groups • Adjust to losing part of their autonomy and freedom of action • Apply different performance standards • Operate within a closer than usual public and private sector interfaces

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Emergency is defined as an unforeseen combination of circumstances or the resulting state that calls for immediate action; an urgent need for assistance or relief. It is a situation which may be an impending crisis, and is always something that requires quick or immediate attention

Catastrophe• Most or all of the community built structure is heavily impacted• Local officials are unable to undertake their usual work roles• Everyday community functions are sharply and simultaneously

interrupted.• Help from nearby communities cannot be provided.

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Natural disasters Any catastrophic event that is caused by nature or the naturalprocesses of the earth. The severity of a disaster is measured inlives lost, economic loss, and the ability of the population torebuild.

Events that occur in unpopulated areas are not considereddisasters.

Man-made disaster is a disastrous event caused directly andprincipally by one or more identifiable deliberate or negligenthuman actions.

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Land - Geological Volcanic eruptionsEarthquakeTsunami

Landslide / Avalanches

Water - HydrologyFloodsDrought / Famine Limnic eruptionsTsunami

Fire - Wildfires

SpaceAstroid, Meteorite Impact events Solar flare

Natural disastersAtmosphere - Meteorology disastersBlizzardsCyclonic stormsDroughtsThunder stormsHailstormsHeat wavesTornadoes

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Natural Hazards (origin)

Terrestrial hazards originate inside the earth or its atmosphere are called terrestrial hazards.Endo-genic Hazards- originate inside the surface of the earth are termed as endogenic hazards - Volcanic, EarthquakeExo-genic Hazards originate above the surface of the earth in the atmosphere.

Atmospheric Hazards originate in the atmosphere of the earth. These include cyclones, tornadoes, droughts, thunderstorms etc. Drought, Rainfall, Snowfall, Winds, HailstormHydrospheric Hazards are related to water in the atmosphere- Wave Currents, Tsunamis, FloodsLithospheric Hazards occur near to the surface of the earth - Landslides, weathering, erosion, shifting, avalanches, sink Holes

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Biotic Hazards originate through plants, animals or humans.

Floral Hazards (Plants) - originate from plant life.

Faunal hazards (Animals)

Anthropogenic Hazards (Man Induced)Physical - Earthquake, Landslide, ErosionChemical - Release of Toxic Chemical, Nuclear ExplosionBiological- Eutrophication, Population Explosion

Extra-Terrestrial hazards originate outside the earth and its atmosphere are called extra-terrestrial hazards- meteorites, astroid

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Contents1 Societal hazards

1.1 Criminality1.2 Civil disorder1.3 Terrorism1.4 War1.5 Industrial hazards1.6 Engineering hazards1.7 Waste disposal1.8 Power outage1.9 Fire

2 Hazardous materials

2.1 Organohalogens2.2 Toxic metals2.3 Radioactive materials2.4 CBRNs2.5 Transportation

2.5.1 Aviation2.5.2 Rail2.5.3 Road2.5.4 Space2.5.5 Sea travel

3 Environmental hazard

Man-made disaster is a disastrous event caused directly and principally by one or more identifiable deliberate or negligent human actions.

Nuclear disaster

Biological

Chemical

Transportation – surface, air, water

Terrorism

Epidemic

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Technical and man-made •Wars and Civil Strife •Industrial disasters •Large scale accidents, fires, explosions •Environmental contamination •Structural failures (dams, mines)

Origins of Disasters Natural 1.Meteorological−Hurricanes, cyclones, tornadoes, typhoons −Heavy rains, thunderstorms, floods, snow-storms −Drought and famine −Heat waves, cold waves 2.Topographical−Landslides and avalanches

3.Tectonics and tellurics−Earthquakes −Volcanic eruptions 4.Epidemics−Yellow fever −Cholera −Meningitis 5.Infestations−Locust invasions−Mealy bug infestation

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Physical occurrenceProbabilityFrequencyTransience (duration)Physical magnitudeEnergy expenditurePhysical effects: direct, indirect and secondaryArea effected: directly and indirectlyDegree of spatial concentration or ubiquity Volume of products (lava, floodwaters)

PredictabilityShort-term (for avoiding action)Long-term (for structural and non-structural adjustment)

Controllabilitycan physical processes be modified?Can physical energy expenditure be reduced?Can effects be mitigated?Can effects be modified?

Socio-cultural factorsBelief systems inherent in societiesDegree of knowledge of riskComplexity of social system and its constituent groups

Ecological factorsEnvironmental damage propensity.Environment compatibility of mitigation measures.

Characterisation of disasters

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Disaster management cycleDisaster phase - The phase during which the event of the disaster takes place. This phase is characterized by profound damage to the human society.

Response phase - This is the period that immediately follows the occurrence of the disaster. The needs of the population during this phase are immediate medical help, food, clothing and shelter.

Recovery/ Rehabilitation phase - realize the impact of disaster & perceive the meaning of the loss. intensive mental support so as to facilitate recovery.

Risk Reduction/ Mitigation phase - certain measures which may be needed to reduce the extent or impact of damage during the next similar disaster. making the impact less severe is called Mitigation.

Preparedness phase - education on warning signs of disasters, methods of safe and successful evacuation and first aid measures.

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HurricaneIt is an intense, rotating oceanic weather system that possesses maximum sustained winds exceeding 119 km/hr, forms and intensifies over tropical oceanic regions. 500 km in diameter. The air spirals inward in a counterclockwise direction at the ocean’s surface. Eventually turning into clockwise (anti cyclonic) outflow near the top of the storm, this cyclonic circulation becomes weaker with height.

Winter Storms and Extreme ColdHeavy snowfall and extreme cold can immobilize an entire region. Even areas that normally experience mild winters can be hit with extreme cold or a major snowstorm. Winter storms can result in closed highways, flooding, downed power lines, blocked roads, storm surge and hypothermia.

Lightning / ThunderstormAll thunderstorms are dangerous. Every thunderstorm produces lightning. In the United States, an

average of three hundred people are injured and eighty people are killed each year by lightning. People struck by lightning often report a variety of long-term, debilitating symptoms, although most lightning victims do survive. Other associated dangers of thunderstorms include tornadoes, strong winds, hail, and flash flooding. Flash flooding is responsible for more fatalities — more than one hundred and forty yearly — than any other thunderstorm associated hazard.

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Heat wave

Heat kills by pushing the human body beyond its limits. Evaporation is slowedand the body must work extra hard to maintain a normal temperature inconditions of extreme heat and high humidity. Most heat disorders happenbecause the victim has been overexposed to heat or has over-exercised for hisor her age and physical condition. Older adults, young children, and those whoare sick or overweight are more likely to succumb to extreme heat.

Cold wave

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Sociological Hazards

Arson is the criminal intent of setting a fire with intent to cause damage to bridges, vehicles, and private property. Arson is the greatest cause of fires.

Civil Disorder is used by law enforcement to describe forms of disturbance. The event escalate into general chaos. Rioting has many causes.

Terrorism - threatened use of violence for the purpose of creating fear in order to achieve a political, religious, or ideological goal. It has been considered as a constant threat to all people of the world.

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Terrorism

There have been many threats to the security of nations throughouthuman history. These threats have brought about large scale losses of life,widespread illness and injury, the destruction of property, thedisplacement of large numbers of people, and devastating economic loss.Some components of the increased risk to national security are recenttechnological advances and ongoing international political

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Technological Hazards

Industrial Hazards - occur in a commercial context, such as mining disasters. They oftenhave an environmental impact.

Structural Collapse - are often caused by engineering failures. Bridge failures may becaused in several ways, such as under-design (as in the Delhi Metro), by corrosion attackand by aerodynamic flutter of the deck . Failure of dams was not infrequent during theVictorian period. Other failures include balcony failures in foot ball stadium.

Power Outage - is an interruption of normal sources of electrical power. Short-termpower outages (up to a few hours) are common and have minor adverse effect, since mostbusinesses and health facilities are prepared to deal with them. Extended power outages,however, can disrupt personal and business activities as well as medical and rescueservices, leading to business losses and medical emergencies. Extended loss of power canlead to civil disorder , as in the New York city disorder 1977.

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Fire

Forest fire - Bush fires, forest fires and mine fires are generally started bylightning, but also by human negligence or arson. They can burn thousands ofsquare kilometers. If a fire intensifies enough to produce its own winds andweather, it will form into afire storm.

Casualties resulting from fires, regardless of their source or initial cause, can beaggravated by inadequate emergency preparedness. Such hazards as a lack ofaccessible emergency exits, poorly marked escape routes, or improperlymaintained fire extinguisher or sprinkler system may result in many more deathsand injuries than might occur with such protections

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Hazardous Materials

Radiation Contamination - When nuclear weapons are detonated or nuclear containmentsystems are otherwise compromised, airborne radioactive particles (nuclear fallout) canscatter and irradiate large areas. Not only is it deadly, but it also has a long-term effect on thenext generation for those who are contaminated. Ionizing radiation is hazardous to livingthings, and in such a case much of the affected area could be unsafe for human habitation.Atomic bombs dropped during World War II, contaminated the cities' water supplies, foodsources, and half of the populations of each city were stricken with disease.

Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant suffered a meltdown in 1986. Several small towns andChernobyl city remain abandoned and uninhabitable due to fallout. A failure at the Three MileIsland Nuclear Power Plant created panic amidst people and the area retained littlecontamination.

CBRN - Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear - describe a non-conventional terror

threat that, if used by a nation, would be considered use of a weapon of mass destruction.

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Space Disasters - either during operations or training, have killed around 20 astronautsand cosmonauts, and a much larger number of ground crew and civilians.

These disasters include either malfunctions on the ground, during launch, or in orbit withtechnology, or of natural forces. Not all space disasters result in human fatalities, forexample, unmanned orbiting satellites that drop to the Earth can incinerate and senddebris spewing across the sky.

One of the worst manned space disasters, the Space Shuttle disaster explosion of 1986,cost all of the lives on board. The shuttle exploded several seconds after taking off fromthe launch pad in Cape Canaveral, Florida. Another example is the Space Shuttle Columbiawhich disintegrated during a landing attempt over Texas in 2003, with a loss of all 7astronauts on board.

Space disaster killing nearby residents occurred on February 15, 1996, in Sichuan Province,China, when a Long March 3B rocket crashed during takeoff. Then in 1960 also killed 126when an R-BM ICBM exploded on the launch pad.

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Transportation

Aviation - incident is an occurrence associated with the operation of an aircraft,which affects or could affect the safety of operations, passengers, or pilots. Thecategory of the vehicle can range from a helicopter, and airliner , or a spaceshuttle. One of the more devastating events occurred in 1977 on the island ofTenerife of the Canary Islands, when miscommunications between and amongstair traffic control and an aircrew caused two fully loaded jets to collide on therunway, killing over 500 passengers.

Railroad- is an occurrence associated with the operation of a passenger trainwhich results in substantial loss of life. Usually accidents with freight (goods) trainsare not considered disasters, unless they cause substantial loss of life or property.One of the more devastating rail disasters occurred in 2004 in Sri Lanka when1,700 people died in the Queen of the Sea train accident. In 1989 Ufa accident inRussia which killed 574, and 1917 Modane train accident in France which killed540.

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Lesson 1.2

Hazard, Vulnerability

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Hazard: a threat (natural or human) that has the potential to cause loss of life, injury, property damage, socio-economic disruption or environmental degradation.

Hazard event: the occurrence of a hazard eg. an earthquake

Disaster: a major hazard event that causes widespread disruption to a community or region, with significant demographic, economic and/or environmental losses, and which the affected community is unable to deal with adequately without outside help.

Vulnerability: the geographical conditions that increases the susceptibility of a community to a hazard or to the impact of a hazard event.

Risk: the probability of a hazard event causing harmful consequences (loss of life, injuries damage)

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Hazards can be dealt by:

Preparation - educate and prepare the populations for a disaster, so that theyknow what to do in a hazardous event. Place laws and building codes to governwhat can be built and to what standard, so that hazard impacts can bereduced.

Prediction - mechanism to forecast when and where a hazard will occur.Warning signs are clearer because of the amount of response time to eachhazard.

Prevention - as human beings we could either prevent the hazard entirely orprevent some of the negative impacts of a hazard. Some hazards such as forestfires can be prevented, by using fire breaks and other hazards cannot beprevented. We can prevent some of the flooding during hurricanes by havingcorrect drainage systems and coastal defences.

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Source courtesy:Ready.gov

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Responses to a Hazard

Short-term response: A response in the days and weeks immediatelyafter a disaster has happened. Short-term responses mainly involvesearch and rescue and helping the injured.

Mid-term response: Responses in the weeks and months following adisaster. Mid-term responses involve re-opening transport links andgetting electricity and water supplies operational again. It might alsoinvolve establishing longer-term refugee camps where there has beenlarge-scale destruction.

Long-term response: Responses that go on for months and years after adisaster. It involves rebuilding destroyed houses, schools, hospitals, etc.It also involves kick-starting the local economy.

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Lesson 1.3

Warning and Preparedness

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Source courtesy: Searchsecurity.techtarget.com

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Source courtesy: Searchsecurity.techtarget.com

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Source courtesy:ready.alaska.gov

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Short-term

Countries search and rescue teams

Countries providing helicopters and

boats in search effort

Countries and NGOs donating food,

tents and water (water purification)

Countries and NGOs sending medical

teams

Providing aid money

Burying the dead to stop spread of

diseases (recovery of bodies)

Mid-Term

Re-connection of water and

electricity supplies

Ongoing medical rehabilitation and

possible counselling

Rebuilding of homes or creation of

more permanent temporary

structures

Re-connection of communication

links (internet, phone masts)

Rebuilding of transport links (roads,

railways, airports, ports)

Clearing away damaged buildings

Re-open schools and hospitals

Cancelling of debt (also long-term

Long-term

Countries providing long-term aid

(donations) to a region or country

Countries creating enterprise zones to

encourage investment

Improvement in warning systems

(tsunami warning system)

Countries investing in effected areas

(FDI)

Improved education of hazard risks

Create new shelters and evacuation

routes. Build new defences.

Help return of refugees and homing

of orphanages

Rescue Rehabilitation Reconstruction

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Challenge in disaster management

• Baseline information, such as prevalence of health conditions, may be absent; especially when the

population affected is displaced to a shelter and therefore no information is available before the disaster

occurred..

• The population under surveillance might change frequently and be unpredictable, residents might have

evacuated or might have been displaced, traditional census or population data might not adequately

reflect the at-risk population, and persons might not be affected uniformly.

• Facilities might be damaged and only able to provide limited services or healthcare systems might be

completely destroyed and non functional. Therefore, outside medical assistance in the form of

temporary hospitals run by response workers, Red Cross temporary shelters for basic medical care, or

mobile health units run by nongovernmental organizations or volunteer medical groups.

• Competing priorities often involve multiple sectors and affect what data to collect and the timing of that

data collection. In addition, coordination of efforts can be difficult. Standardization of data elements

across the different collection agencies and streamlined reporting mechanisms and sharing of

information are often difficult to obtain.

• Logistical constraints such as electricity (power)and telephone outages affect communication networks

and transportation systems, leading to interruption of usual reporting mechanisms and underreporting of

health events

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Emergency Response Plan is a plan of action for the efficient deployment and

coordination of services, agencies and personnel to provide the earliest possible

response to an emergency.

Emergency management plan is a course of action developed to mitigate the

damage of potential events that could endanger an organization's ability to function.

Such a plan should include measures that provide for the safety of personnel and, if

possible, property and facilities.

Emergency management is the managerial function charged with creating the

framework within which communities reduce vulnerability to hazards and cope with

disasters. Vision. Emergency management seeks to promote safer, less vulnerable

communities with the capacity to cope with hazards and disasters.

Disaster mitigation measures are those that eliminate or reduce the impacts and

risks of hazards through proactive measures taken before an emergency or disaster

occurs.

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Source courtesy: sgo.sagepub.com

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Source courtesy:public.wmo.it

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Disaster type Direct health effect Indirect health effects

Hurricane/cyclone Drowning

Injuries from flying debris (e.g., head and chest trauma)

Injuries from submerged debris or structures (e.g.,

puncture wounds)

Worsening of chronic disease

•Carbon monoxide poisoning

•Waterborne disease

•Vector-borne disease

•Disease outbreak

•Mental health concerns

Tornado Injuries from flying debris or

structural collapse





•Disease outbreak


Flood Drowning

•Injuries from submerged debris

or structures





•Disease outbreak


Earthquake Injuries from rock slides or

collapsed buildings

•Drowning from ensuing tsunami





•Disease outbreak


Volcanic eruption Suffocation by ash or toxic gases

•Injuries, including burn injuries,

from mud or lava flows

•Drowning from ensuing tsunami





•Disease outbreak


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Thank you

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Documents

Lesson 1 Natural and man-made disasters assessment