NATS 101

Lecture 34

Climate Change (cont’d)

The 6th Mass Species Extinction?

• Holocene Extinction: A 1998 survey by the American Museum of Natural History found that 70% of biologists view the present era as part of a mass extinction event, the fastest to have ever occurred.

• Higher temperatures are moving rapidly toward the poles

• Can species adapt/move quickly enough to avoid extinction?

• Study of 1,700 species found poleward migration of 6 km/decade and vertical migration in alpine regions of 6 m/decade in past 50 years

• These are within a factor of 2 of the surface isotherm migration in the Figure

Hansen et al., 2006

Trenberth

CO2 emissions in different regions in 2000 in terms of emissions per capita (height of each block); population (width of each block); and total emissions (product of population and emissions per capita = area of block).

Source: M. Grubb, http://www.eia.doe.gov/iea/Trenberth

What Might We Do?• Common sense precautionary measures suggest that

we begin to reduce emissions before enormous changes to the climate and ecosystems could occur.

• Greenhouse warming is internationally recognized as a serious problem.

• Kyoto Protocol is a start, but the Congress and Executive branches have refused to ratify it or to support attempts to curb greenhouse emissions.

• Support leaders and organizations who provide vision and can make tough decisions.

CO2 Emission-related News

• China is now building about 2 power stations every week, BBC

• Carbon Monitoring for Action CARMA– Database on international power plant emissions

• In 2006, Supreme Court ruled (5 to 4) that CO2 is a pollutant covered by under the clean air act STORY– So EPA now has to regulate CO2 emissions!

• Coal plant application denial in Kansas– SEN. Sam Brownback (R) response

• Finally, new US Fuel efficiency standards? STORY

What is the Kyoto protocolWhat is the Kyoto protocol?• The Kyoto protocol is an international and

legally binding agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions worldwide. It came into force in February 2005 after being agreed at a 1997 UN conference in Kyoto, Japan. A total of 174 nations (but not the US) ratified the pact to reduce the greenhouse gases emitted by developed countries to at least 5% below 1990 levels by 2008-12.

• Bali Conference (12/2007): a new international climate change deal is being negotiated to replace the Kyoto protocol that expires in 2012.

Energy usage and the COEnergy usage and the CO22 problem problem

The vast emissions of CO2 from energy use result from three factors:

1. The amount of carbon in the fuels we use,

2. Our inefficient use of energy,

3. Our choices about when and how to use energy

US Energy Usage

Inefficiency of Electricity Generation

31% efficient

Trenberth

Source of the problem• Beginning in the late 1950’s, our enormous energy addiction has

pushed beyond the U.S. domestic production of fossil fuels• This addition has caused the US to become increasingly involved in the

Middle East over time

See: tonto.eia.doe.gov/FTPROOT/other/perspectives05.pdf

Present Financial Realities• How much do we spend a day buying crude oil?

We presently import ~10 million barrels of oil per dayAt ~$100/barrel, $1B leaves the U.S. each day

• How much do we spend each day on the Iraq War?Presently $10B/month = $330M/day in direct militaryOthers estimate $720M/day in long term costs with no end in sight

• Iraq funding is sufficient to fund a major new climate observing system or a new mission to Mars

EVERY DAY

Petroleum Imports• We are spending at least $1.3B/day to gain access to fossil

fuel which is causing CO2 concentrations to increase and our climate to change

• Clearly $ are available for alternative fuel development if we decide to set our priorities to do so

What Might We Do?• The climate is warming. The general scientific

consensus is most of this is human induced• The CO2 problem will get worse: Within 15 years,

China will surpass the U.S. as the world leader in carbon emissions

• Concern about shifting from fossil fuels will adversely affect our economy has been used to justify a “wait and see” attitude

• However, the early warning/warming signs are becoming commonplace and the potential damage from global warming and real damage from financial and political costs of our fossil fuel addiction argue that changes are needed and the sooner the better

What Might We Do?

Four (?) coupled issues:1. The threat of anthropogenic global change, warming

etc.2. The international economics of the world’s fossil fuel

dependence 3. The international politics of our fossil fuel

dependence 4. The economics of breaking our dependence on fossil

fuel

Is there a Common solution?• Clearly we need to develop alternate fuel sources to

get us off of our Fossil Fuel addiction (as Jimmy Carter suggested 30 years ago)

SuggestionSuggestionThe U.S. should become the world leader in

developing alternative energy sources.– Reduce our greenhouse gas emissions– Develop new jobs in the U.S.– Reduce (or eliminate) our reliance on the

Middle East– Export the alternative energy technology to

other parts of the world for profit and to reduce their CO2 emissions

Alternative Energy SolutionsAlternative Energy Solutions• Bioenergy• Fuel Cells and Alternative Fuel

Vehicles• Geothermal Energy• Solar Energy• Water Power or Hydropower• Wave, Tidal, or Ocean Energy• Wind Energy

– Roscoe Texas wind farm NPR storySee: http://www.aresearchguide.com/energy.html

BiofuelsBiofuels• Ethanol and biodiesel both used presentlyEthanol and biodiesel both used presently

– 3/28/2005 -- Ethanol generates 35% more 3/28/2005 -- Ethanol generates 35% more energy than it takes to produce (Michael Wang energy than it takes to produce (Michael Wang at US Department of Energy's Argonne at US Department of Energy's Argonne National Laboratory).National Laboratory).

– http://journeytoforever.org/ethanol_energy.html– PROBLEMPROBLEM: Crutzen et al. (2007): biodiesel

from rapeseed and bioethanol from corn (maize), can contribute as much or more to global warming by N2O emissions than cooling by fossil fuel savings

– Also driving up the cost of corn

Biofuels: Algae?Biofuels: Algae?Algae may be the long term biofuel of the future.Algae may be the long term biofuel of the future.

–Still some significant technical problems to overcome

–Some BIG Advantages motivate research:•Yields of oil from algae are orders of magnitude higher than those for traditional oilseeds

•Algae can grow in places away from the farmlands & forests, minimizing damage to the eco- and food chain systems.

•Algae can be grown in sewages and next to power-plant smokestacks where they digest the pollutants and give us oil!

See for example: http://www.oilgae.com/

Solar EnergySolar EnergyIn 1931, Thomas Edison said: “I’d put my money on

the sun and solar energy. What a source of power! I hope we don’t have to wait until oil and coal run out before we tackle that.”

• Ultimately the sun is the source of all power• Globally averaged solar power is 240 watts per square

meter (higher at equator, lower at poles)• ~2000 W per person is needed for residential electricity• At 10% efficiency, ~80 sq. meters (30 ft x 30 ft) of solar

energy collection is required per person • (at 6B humans, surface area per human is 1000x1000 ft)

Solar Power in SouthwestSolar Power in Southwest

http://rredc.nrel.gov/solar/old_data/nsrdb/redbook/atlas/

Solar Collectors…Solar Collectors…

• Lots of sunlight in the WestLots of sunlight in the West• Collectors concentrate the solar energy to Collectors concentrate the solar energy to

generate steam to run turbinesgenerate steam to run turbines

• No CONo CO22 emission emission

• ProblemProblem for Southwest is they use water for Southwest is they use water

QuickTime™ and aTIFF (LZW) decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

Solar Power: Solar cellsSolar Power: Solar cells• Use in central power grids and individual buildings Use in central power grids and individual buildings • Centralized grid does work because DC-Centralized grid does work because DC-AC AC inverters are 96inverters are 96% efficient% efficient• Tucson ElectTucson Electric Power (TEP) experimental grid in ric Power (TEP) experimental grid in Springerville

• A stA storage capability must be developed to smooth through diurnal and orage capability must be developed to smooth through diurnal and cloud-caused power variationscloud-caused power variations

Solar Cells cont’dSolar Cells cont’d• Payback time of energy used in fabricationPayback time of energy used in fabrication

– from about from about 1 year 1 year for roof integrated built-infor roof integrated built-in installationsinstallations in in PhoenixPhoenix made from high efficiency amorphous Silicon made from high efficiency amorphous Silicon

• Over 30-year lifetime, Si based solar cells will produce 6 to Over 30-year lifetime, Si based solar cells will produce 6 to 31 times the amount of energy used to produce them31 times the amount of energy used to produce them

• No GHG emissions during power generationNo GHG emissions during power generation • Energy generation cost is ~0.Energy generation cost is ~0.1818 $/kWh in Arizona (TEP) $/kWh in Arizona (TEP)• Monthly use of 500 kWh per house: $Monthly use of 500 kWh per house: $9090 (TEP cost ~$ (TEP cost ~$440)0)• TEP anticipates solar cells become cost effective ~2015TEP anticipates solar cells become cost effective ~2015• SSolar celolar cellsls on the bui on the buildldings in Tucson wings in Tucson would provide the ould provide the

power needed for Tucson transportation via electric carspower needed for Tucson transportation via electric cars

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cell#Energy_conversion_efficiency

What Can YOU Do?• Use energy-efficient light bulbsUse energy-efficient light bulbs

– Initially more $, longer lasting, lower electricity $Initially more $, longer lasting, lower electricity $

• Purchase Energy Efficient Purchase Energy Efficient Appliances/MerchandizeAppliances/Merchandize

• Limit Heating and Air ConditioningLimit Heating and Air Conditioning 76°F in summer, 66°F in winter76°F in summer, 66°F in winter

• Think Alternative TransportationThink Alternative TransportationBicycles, Walking, Public TransportationBicycles, Walking, Public Transportation

• Practice Smart Use of Personal AutomobilesPractice Smart Use of Personal AutomobilesCarpool, Combine Errands, Lighter Loads, Slow DownCarpool, Combine Errands, Lighter Loads, Slow DownUse Fuel Efficient or Hybrid VehiclesUse Fuel Efficient or Hybrid Vehicles

Use solar power:Use solar power:• Dry your clothes on the clothes line

• Some HOAs ban clothes lines: but clothes lines are environmentally beautiful

• Solar water heaters on house• Solar electricity generation

• Dry your clothes on the clothes line

• Some HOAs ban clothes lines: but clothes lines are environmentally beautiful

• Solar water heaters on house• Solar electricity generation

Many things you can do:

Many things you can do:

• Insulate your house etc:• Use renewable energy• Reduce coal fired power (unless carbon capture and storage employed)

• Insulate your house etc:• Use renewable energy• Reduce coal fired power (unless carbon capture and storage employed)

Many things you can do:

Many things you can do:

• VOTE!• Vote for responsible candidates

•Most important!

• VOTE!• Vote for responsible candidates

•Most important!

Conclusions

• Global warming (etc.) is very real

• Humans are causing a lot of the problem

• More climate change is a sure bet - we must develop adaptation strategies

Arizona population projectedto double by 2030

Photo: J. Overpeck

The Challenge: Sustainable Management of an Ever-Changing Planet