NATIONAL SUMMARY OF AERIAL CENSUS RESULTS FOR ELEPHANT …d2ouvy59p0dg6k.cloudfront.net/downloads/national_summary.pdf · Map 3. The survey region in the Sebungwe area of Zimbabwe.....21

NATIONAL SUMMARY OF AERIALCENSUS RESULTS FOR ELEPHANTIN ZIMBABWE: 2001

K.M. Dunham & C.S. Mackie

WWF - SARPO Occasional Paper Number 1

June 2002

This census was carried out jointly by the Department of National Parks and Wild Life Management andWWF-SARPO (WWF Project No: ZW 0025). This report has also been published by the Department of National Parksand Wild Life Management.

The 2001 aerial survey and this publication were made possible through support made available by the Office of USAID Harareunder the terms of project 613-0241 and grant 690-0251-4-9001-00.The opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the view of USAID.This material has been produced by the authority of, and for the use of CAMPFIRE in Zimbabwe, for information purposes only.

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SUMMARY

The principal populations of elephants in Zimbabwe were surveyed from the air during theperiod July to October 2001. These populations are located in north-west Matabeleland, theSebungwe region, the unflooded Middle Zambezi Valley and the south-east lowveld. Thetotal area surveyed was 66 651 km2. This was the first time since 1998 that all thesepopulations were studied during the same year. The surveys were sample counts and themethods followed those used during previous surveys. The Save Valley Conservancy wasincluded in the national elephant survey for the first time.

There were estimated to be 88 123 elephants (+/- 95 % confidence interval 8.0 %, or 7079elephants) in the regions surveyed from the air. This was the highest and most preciseestimate ever obtained for the total number of elephants in Zimbabwe’s principal populations.The lower and upper confidence limits of this mean estimate were 81 044 and 95 202elephants.

There are known to be several small sub-populations of elephants occurring outside thesesurvey areas, and estimates or ‘guesstimates’ of the numbers of animals in these sub-populations were obtained from people familiar with them. Elephants occurred at 12 locationsoutside the survey regions and the total number of elephants in these sub-populations wasprobably about 1000.

Thus, there were estimated to be, in total, 89 123 elephants in Zimbabwe during the 2001 dryseason. It is more practical to take account of the confidence limits for the estimate from theair surveys and state that there were between about 82 000 and 96 000 elephants in Zimbabweduring the 2001 dry season. Almost 90 % of these were in the Parks & Wild Life Estate andabout 50 % were in Hwange National Park.

In the regions surveyed from the air, there were, in total, an estimated 86 ‘fresh’ carcasses ofelephants, 186 ‘recent’ carcasses and 3209 ‘old’ carcasses. Overall, these carcasses formed3.8 % of all elephants (live and dead) estimated to be in these regions. The carcass “ratio”varied from 1.7 % in the Save Valley Conservancy to 5.8 % in the Sebungwe.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

SUMMARY................................................................................................................................1LIST OF TABLES......................................................................................................................3LIST OF MAPS..........................................................................................................................5INTRODUCTION......................................................................................................................6METHODS.................................................................................................................................6

Aerial Surveys .........................................................................................................................6Survey Areas........................................................................................................................6Transect Surveys..................................................................................................................6Block Counts........................................................................................................................9Data Analysis .......................................................................................................................9

Small Populations .................................................................................................................10RESULTS.................................................................................................................................10

Small Populations .................................................................................................................10Aerial Surveys .......................................................................................................................13North-west Matabeleland......................................................................................................13Zambezi Valley ......................................................................................................................13Sebungwe...............................................................................................................................13South-east Lowveld ...............................................................................................................13Zimbabwe ..............................................................................................................................16Elephant Carcasses ...............................................................................................................16

REFERENCES .........................................................................................................................17ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS......................................................................................................18APPENDIX. Tables of population estimates and statistics for elephants, elephant bulls,elephants in cow herds, and elephant carcasses in Zimbabwe during 2001. Populationestimates by region (Tables 5-10) and by administrative area (Tables 11-16). .......................24

Notes about Tables ................................................................................................................24

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LIST OF TABLES

Table 1. Summary of sampling statistics for the 2001 aerial surveys ........................................8Table 2. Definitions of categories used to record time since death for elephant carcasses........8Table 3. Status of small populations of elephants during the dry season of 2001 ...................11Table 4. Summary of the population estimates for elephants in Zimbabwe during 2001........14Table 5. Population estimates and statistics for elephants in the aerial survey regions ofZimbabwe during 2001.............................................................................................................25Table 6. Population estimates and statistics for elephant bulls in the aerial survey regions ofZimbabwe during 2001.............................................................................................................25Table 7. Population estimates and statistics for elephants in cow herds in the aerial surveyregions of Zimbabwe during 2001 ...........................................................................................25Table 8. Population estimates and statistics for fresh carcasses of elephants (age category 1) inthe aerial survey regions of Zimbabwe during 2001 ................................................................26Table 9. Population estimates and statistics for recent carcasses of elephants (age category 2)in the aerial survey regions of Zimbabwe during 2001............................................................26Table 10. Population estimates and statistics for old carcasses of elephants (age category 3)and carcass ratios (for all elephant carcasses) in the aerial survey regions of Zimbabwe during2001 ..........................................................................................................................................26Table 11. Population estimates and statistics for elephants, by administrative area, in regionssurveyed from the air................................................................................................................27

Save Valley Conservancy ......................................................................................................27Gonarezhou ...........................................................................................................................27North-west Matabeleland......................................................................................................27Zambezi Valley ......................................................................................................................28Sebungwe...............................................................................................................................28

Table 12. Population estimates and statistics for elephant bulls, by administrative area, inregions surveyed from the air ...................................................................................................29


Table 13. Population estimates and statistics for elephants in cow herds, by administrativearea, in regions surveyed from the air ......................................................................................31


Table 14. Population estimates and statistics for fresh carcasses of elephants (age category 1),by administrative area, in regions surveyed from the air .........................................................33


Table 15. Population estimates and statistics for recent carcasses of elephants (age category2), by administrative area, in regions surveyed from the air ....................................................35

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Table 16. Population estimates and statistics for old carcasses of elephants (age category 3)and carcass ratios (for all elephant carcasses), by administrative area, in regions surveyedfrom the air ...............................................................................................................................37


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LIST OF MAPS

Map 1. The survey region in north-west Matabeleland of Zimbabwe. ....................................19Map 2. The survey region in the unflooded Middle Zambezi Valley of northern Zimbabwe. 20Map 3. The survey region in the Sebungwe area of Zimbabwe. ..............................................21Map 4. The survey regions in the south-east lowveld of Zimbabwe........................................22Map 5. The density and distribution of elephants in Zimbabwe during the dry season of 2001,

in relation to land use. ......................................................................................................23

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INTRODUCTION

In order to assess the status of the elephant population in Zimbabwe, sample aerial surveys ofthe principal sub-populations were conducted during the 2001 dry season. This was the firsttime since 1998 that all principal sub-populations were surveyed during the same year. Themethods used closely followed those utilised during earlier surveys, so that the results of the2001 surveys are comparable with those from previous surveys. The Save ValleyConservancy was included in the national air survey programme for the first time.

There are known to be several sub-populations of elephant outside the regions surveyed fromthe air. But there are relatively few elephants in these sub-populations and so it would nothave been cost-effective to include them in the air survey programme. Nevertheless, anattempt is made here to consider these small sub-populations when deriving an estimate of thetotal number of elephants in Zimbabwe.

METHODS

Aerial Surveys

Survey Areas

Elephant populations were surveyed from the air in five regions of Zimbabwe, namely north-west Matabeleland, Gonarezhou National Park, Save Valley Conservancy, the Sebungwe, andthe unflooded Middle Zambezi Valley. The procedures used followed those well establishedfor aerial surveys of African large herbivores (Norton Griffiths 1978) and utilised duringearlier surveys of elephants in Zimbabwe. Detailed reports of the 2001 surveys are providedby Dunham (2002a,b,c) and Mackie (2002a,b). The entire survey area covered 66 651 km2

and was divided into 86 strata (subdivisions) (Table 1). Strata boundaries were drawn so thatelephant density within a stratum was spatially uniform, and the boundaries were the same asthose used during previous surveys.

Transect Surveys

Regularly-spaced, parallel transects (flight lines) were positioned across each stratum in areasof generally flattish ground. These areas included all of the north-west Matabeleland,Gonarezhou and Save Valley Conservancy, the Zambezi Valley floor and all of the Sebungweexcept for the hills of Matusadona NP and Kanyati. Transect surveys were undertaken duringthe period 14 August – 6 October 2001.

Transects were arranged at right angles to the principal environmental feature within astratum – for example, transects crossed major river systems. Within each stratum, transectorientation was the same as that used during previous surveys. Sampling intensity (i.e. thepercentage of the study area that was actually surveyed) varied between regions and, in eachregion, was similar to that used during previous surveys. The distance between adjacenttransects varied between strata, according to the planned sampling intensity in each stratum.The latter was determined by predicting that the elephant density in each stratum would besimilar to that observed during any surveys in 1997, 1998 and/or 1999 (see Gibson (1992) formethod). As a consequence, those strata expected to contain large numbers of elephants were

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sampled more intensively (i.e. transects were closer together) than strata expected to containfew elephants. Transect spacings generally varied from 1.5 km in strata expected to containmany elephants, to 10 km in strata expected to contain few.

The Save Valley Conservancy was expected to contain relatively few elephants. Nevertheless,sampling intensity was high, in part because this was the first time that this region had beenincluded in the national elephant census. Through this survey, it was hoped to provide goodbaseline data for the planning of future surveys. In addition, a high sampling intensity shouldincrease the precision of the population estimates for elephants (and other large herbivores).

Surveys were designed using software that was custom-written by WWF for this purpose.Given the latitude/longitude co-ordinates that describe a stratum boundary, the transectorientation, the transect spacing and a random number, this software generates transects(flight lines), with the first transect offset from the end of the stratum by a random distance.The start and end points for each transect were transferred as waypoints to a GPS receiver inthe aircraft (a Cessna 206) prior to flying each stratum. During surveys, the plane was flownat approximately 160 km per hour at about 300 feet above ground level (agl).

The aircraft crew consisted of four people, who could talk to one another through an intercomsystem. The crew were:

• the pilot, who was responsible for flying the plane and navigating along the transects, byreference to the GPS receiver.

• the recorder, who sat next to the pilot and was responsible for recording:• the actual height of the aircraft every 30 seconds while flying along transects

(from a radar altimeter);• the time taken to fly each transect (using a stopwatch);• the number of elephants seen by observers and, for each group, its GPS location

and the time since the start of the transect.

• two experienced observers, who sat behind the pilot and recorder. The observers wereresponsible for:

• looking for elephants and carcasses, and counting those seen within the countingstrips;

• calling all sightings of these to the recorder;• differentiating groups of elephant bulls from cow herds (although the latter may

have included some bulls);• classifying the age since death for elephant carcasses (see Table 2 for details).

On each side of the plane, a counting strip was defined by two fibreglass rods that wereattached to the wing strut, so that the rods pointed backwards and parallel to the groundduring level flight. The distance between the rods on each strut was arranged so that, whenthe aircraft was flying at 300 feet agl, the distance represented a strip about 150 m wide on theground. Each rod was marked with a small piece of tape to provide the observers with a“decision point” (at this point the observer decided whether an animal was in or out of thestrip). For each regional survey, the strip widths were calibrated by flying the aircraft at rightangles across an airstrip that had large-sized numbers arranged at 10 meter intervals along theside of the airstrip. Each observer noted the largest and smallest number within his strip andthe recorder noted the aircraft’s height. The nominal combined strip width at 300 feet agl wasdetermined by averaging the combined strip widths, after adjusting these to 300 feet agl. Thenominal strip widths for the regional surveys are given in Table 1.

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Table 1. Summary of sampling statistics for the 2001 aerial surveys

Number of strataRegion Area(km2)

Percentof area

sampled

Mean combinedstrip width at300 feet agl

(meters)

Datessampled

Transectsurveys

Blockcount

s

Total

Meansearch

intensity(minutes

km-2)

Save ValleyConservancy

3484 22.51 332 29 September– 6 October

4 0 4 1.01

Gonarezhou 5346 14.11 339 (for 2 strata)359 (for 6 strata)

25–29 August 8 0 8 0.96

North-westMatabeleland

25072 7.83 317 9 – 22September

23 0 23 1.01

ZambeziValley

17127 15.48 315 15 July – 14September

13 12 25 1.08

Sebungwe 15622 13.81 324 19 July – 30August

24 2 26 1.06

Totals 66651 km2 72 14 86 -

Table 2. Definitions of categories used to record time since death for elephant carcasses

Carcasscategory

Definition

1 Fresh: intact; white droppings of vultures visible;vegetation trampled; fluid stain on ground aroundcarcass visible (animal likely to have died within the last3 months).

2 Recent: pieces of hide still attached; skeleton still partlyarticulated; no vulture droppings; no trampledvegetation; no fluid stain evident (less than 1 year old,but generally since the last rainy season, i.e. 3 to 8months old).

3 Old: bones scattered and bleached (probably died duringor before the last rainy season, i.e. more than 8 monthsold but generally more than 1 year old and up to severalyears old).

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Block Counts

In hilly areas (the Chewore Hills and the hills south of the Zambezi escarpment, stretchingfrom Matusadona NP in the west to Mavuradonha Wilderness Area in the east), block countswere used to count elephants. Blocks of land were defined on 1:50 000 scale maps usingfeatures, such as drainage lines or watersheds, that would be recognisable from the air. Thearea of these blocks was usually 5-25 km2. Blocks to be counted were selected with aprobability proportional to their area (by using random numbers as map co-ordinates).Consequently, large blocks were more likely to be selected for counting than small blocks.

A pilot and one observer/recorder in a Piper Super Cub aircraft searched each block until itwas believed that all elephants within it were seen. The recorder noted the number ofelephants and elephant carcasses, and the time taken to search each block. Block counts wereundertaken during the period 19 July – 8 August 2001.

Data Analysis

For strata surveyed with transects, the estimated number of elephants (and carcasses) in astratum and the confidence intervals of the estimates were calculated with WWF’s customsoftware (using method 2 of Jolly (1969)). The software determined the actual combined stripwidth for each transect from the mean flying height for that transect and the nominalcombined strip width at 300 feet agl. Transect area was the product of the actual combinedstrip width and transect length. The mean density of elephants in a stratum was calculatedfrom the numbers of elephants seen within strips and the transect areas. The populationestimate was the product of the mean density and the stratum area. For strata surveyed withblock counts, population estimates and confidence intervals were calculated similarly (usingmethod 3 of Jolly (1969)).

Population estimates for the entire study area, the five survey regions within it and for variousadministrative units within those regions were calculated as the sum of the estimates for theindividual strata within each land unit. The 95 % confidence interval (CI) of the populationestimate for any land unit that comprised more than one stratum was calculated using themethod of Gasaway et al. (1986). From the confidence interval, lower and upper 95 %confidence limits to the population estimate were calculated. The 95 % confidence limits canbe interpreted to indicate that: there is a 95 % certainty that the true number of elephants liesbetween the lower and upper limits; or that there is just one chance in twenty that the truenumber of elephants lies outside the range defined by the lower and upper limits.

Strata boundaries did not always coincide with the boundaries of administrative areas andsome compromises have been made in this part of the analysis. For example, in the tables thataccompany this report, ‘Hwange National Park’ includes Deka Safari Area, and the Dandestratum includes Dande Safari Area and some communal land: in this analysis, it is includedwithin Guruve Communal Area, because safari hunting rights in Dande SA are leased toGuruve Rural District Council.

Search intensity (in minutes per square kilometre) for a stratum was calculated as the totaltime spent flying all transects (or blocks) within that stratum, divided by the total area ofthose transects (or blocks). The greater the search intensity, the less the probability thatobservers did not observe animals that were within the strips. No corrections have beenapplied to any of the estimates to compensate for any undercounting or missed animals.

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The carcass “ratio” (really a percentage) was calculated as the estimated number of allelephant carcasses as a percentage of the estimated number of all elephants, i.e. live elephantsplus dead ones (Douglas-Hamilton et al. 1992).

Small Populations

Biologists, managers, owners and/or safari operators working in areas occupied by the smallpopulations of elephants not surveyed from the air were asked to provide their assessment ofthe status of the elephant population during the 2001 dry season (ideally, during September).The assessment included: up to three estimates of the number of elephants (minimum number,probable number and maximum number); any information to support these estimates (forexample, sightings or survey data); the composition of the population (for example, bulls,cow herds, or both); and the elephants’ distributional range and/or seasonal movements.Captive elephants were excluded from this assessment.

RESULTS

Small Populations

Outside the regions surveyed from the air, there were estimated to be about 535 elephants atnine locations for which fairly precise estimates were available (Table 3). There were anotherthree locations (Limpopo River, Nyatana Area and Kavira Forest Land) for which reliableinformation was lacking and the stated elephant numbers were no more than guesses: theremight be another 450 elephants in these areas. Thus, there were, in total, about 1000 elephantsin the locations not covered by the air surveys.

The elephant bulls on Protea Farm moved there from, presumably, the Zambezi escarpmenthills, while the Shangani bulls are believed to have come from the Hwange area. The originsof the bulls near Plumtree are not known, but elephants on Sentinel and Nottingham Ranchesmoved there from Botswana during 1991-1992 (Selier 2001). Elephants were reintroduced tothe Bubiana, Bubi and Chiredzi River Conservancies within the last decade. MalilangweConservancy is adjacent to Gonarezhou NP and the elephants there form part of theGonarezhou population.

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Table 3. Status of small populations of elephants during the dry season of 2001

Number of elephants Composition Authority NotesSite(see Map 5 for locations) Minimum Probable MaximumShangani Ranch 45 60 80 Bulls C.M. Swanepoel 1. Group of 43 bulls seen by ranch staff during

August 2001.2. Number varies seasonally: fewer animals seen

during wet season.

Bubiana Conservancy 50-60 100 Bulls & cowherds

M. Jones 1. Approximately 100 elephants before landinvasion by squatters.

2. Unknown number of animals known to havemoved off since land invasions.

Malilangwe Conservancy& Hippo Valley EstatesGame Section

116 Bulls & cowherds

S. Clegg 116 and 105 elephants seen during two total-areasurveys by helicopter during September 2001.

Hartley Safari Area 100 120 Bulls & cowherds

A. Van Eeden 1. Saw a single herd (family unit) of about 100there during May 2001 and again during earlyNovember 2001.

2. Saw a herd of 8 bulls during May 2001 and agroup of 12 bulls was seen by another hunter.

Chiredzi RiverConservancy

28 28 Bulls & cows T. Ballance 1. 25 elephants released as calves during 1992drought.

2. Three calves born during 2001.3. One or two bulls wander through each year (from

Gonarezhou NP ?).

Protea Farm (30 km northof Karoi)

7 7 Bulls A. Van Leenhoff& C. Mackie

7 bulls seen by C.M. during July 2001

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Number of elephants Composition Authority NotesSite(see Map 5 for locations) Minimum Probable MaximumBubi River Conservancy 53 Bulls & cow

herdsK. Leathem 1. 37 are translocated animals and their offspring,

and some bulls that arrived naturally.2. Other 16 are bulls that moved from Sentinel

Ranch area during first quarter of 2001.

Shashe River, Tuli SafariArea, MaramaniCommunal Land, andSentinel & NottinghamRanches

92 Bulls & cowherds

J. Selier (2001) Total-area survey by plane during July 2001, with‘flight strips’ 1 km wide (narrower over thick riverinevegetation). Saw 4 bulls & 78 elephants in cow herdson Sentinel & Nottingham Ranches, 10 elephantsalong the Shashe River in Mambali Communal Land,and no elephants in Tuli Safari Area or MaramaniCommunal Land. Part of a population which, duringJuly 2001, numbered >1238 animals and was centredon the Botswana’s Northern Tuli Game Reserve.

Home Farm & GreystoneRanches (40 km south-south-east of Plumtree)

3 or 4 Bulls G. Robertson Fresh footprints of 3 or 4 young-adult bulls seen inbed of Ingwizi River during July 2001

Limpopo River,Chikwarakwara area,Sengwe Communal Land

200 ? Bulls ? A. Strauss Regular movement of elephants across LimpopoRiver, between this area and South Africa’s KrugerNP.

Nyatana WildlifeManagement Area

150 ? Bulls & cows R. Gwazani & F.Murindagomo(2001)

These authors believe that there are 75 males and 75females in this area, but, on the basis of all thesurveys conducted during 2001, a 1:1 sex ratio isvery unlikely. Thus, the figure of 150 is probablylittle more than a guess. But the authors did findelephant dung along transects in the area and so thepresence of elephants is confirmed.

Kavira Forest Land + ? Bulls &cow herds

E. Mufandaedza,D. Littleton

1. Elephants present, but no estimate of numbers.2. During dry season of 2000, bulls and cow herds

present, totalling about 100 animals.

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Aerial SurveysSummaries of the results of the aerial surveys are given in Tables 5-16, which provideestimates of the numbers of elephants, bulls, elephants in cow herds and elephant carcasses ineach region (Tables 5-10) and in each administrative area (Tables 11-16). Detailed results arecontained in the separate survey reports (Dunham 2002a,b,c, Mackie 2002a,b).

The major findings of the study are presented below and in Table 4.

North-west MatabelelandThe largest population of elephants in Zimbabwe was in north-west Matabeleland, where therewere an estimated 49 310 elephants (+/- CI 6088). Most (90 %) of these were in Hwange NP(Map 1). Hwange NP contained an estimated 44 492 (+/- CI 5838) elephants, which represented50 % of Zimbabwe’s elephant population. Not only was the number of elephants in the nationalpark very large, but the density of elephants, which averaged 2.9 elephants km-2, was greater herethan in any other national park or safari area in Zimbabwe. The elephants in north-westMatabeleland form part of a larger population that Zimbabwe shares with northern Botswana.

Zambezi ValleyThere were an estimated 19 297 elephants (+/- CI 2522) in the Zambezi Valley survey region,which stretched from Kariba dam eastwards to the Mavuradonha hills (Map 2). This totalincluded 3708 elephants (+/- CI 925) in Mana Pools NP and another 3174 (+/- CI 1518) in thecommunal areas (including Dande Safari Area). The elephants in the Zambezi Valley surveyregion form part of a larger population that Zimbabwe shares with the Lower Zambezi NP inZambia and the Magoe district of Mozambique.

SebungweThere were estimated to be 13 989 elephants (+/- CI 2124) in the Sebungwe region, south of LakeKariba (Map 3). This total included 4033 elephants (+/- CI 1110) in the Kariba, Binga and northGokwe communal areas and another 5011 (+/- CI 1219) in Chizarira NP. Elephant density in thisnational park averaged 2.4 elephants km-2. Only in Hwange NP was a greater density than thisrecorded during 2001. Unlike the other elephant populations in Zimbabwe, the Sebungwepopulation is largely closed, being isolated by Lake Kariba, human settlement, and areas ofcommunal and commercial agriculture.

South-east LowveldThere were estimated to be 4992 elephants (+/- CI 1637) in the Gonarezhou area and 535elephants (+/- CI 322) in the Save Valley Conservancy (Map 4). Together with 116 elephants inMalilangwe Conservancy and 28 in Chiredzi River Conservancy, these form the south-eastlowveld population. But most (88 %) of the elephants in this region were in Gonarezhou NP,where the population was estimated to be 4987 (+/- CI 1637) elephants. The eastern boundaryof this national park is the international border with Mozambique and elephants in GonarezhouNP are free to cross it. The elephants in the south-east lowveld formed just 6 % of Zimbabwe’stotal elephant population.

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Table 4. Summary of the population estimates for elephants in Zimbabwe during 2001

Population estimate for:

Area or Land Use CategoryNP / SA Land use

categoryRegion

Population estimate aspercentage of regional

population estimate

Population estimate aspercentage of national

population estimate

North-west MatabelelandHwange NP 44492 90.2 49.9Zambezi NP 656 1.3 0.7Matetsi/Kazuma/Panda Masuie 3545 7.2 4.0

Parks & Wild Life Estate 48692 98.7 54.6Communal Areas 64 0.1 0.1Forest Areas/Private Land 553 1.1 0.6

NW Matabeleland region 49310 100.0 55.3

Zambezi ValleyMana Pools NP 3708 19.2 4.2Safari Areas 12403 64.3 13.9

Parks & Wild Life Estate 16110 83.6 18.1Communal Areas / Mavuradonha WA 3187 16.5 3.6

Zambezi Valley region 19297 100.0 21.7

SebungweChizarira NP 5011 35.8 5.6Matusadona NP 1716 12.3 1.9Safari Areas 3196 22.8 3.6

Parks & Wild Life Estate 9923 70.9 11.1Communal Areas 4033 28.8 4.5Forest Area 33 0.2 0.04

Sebungwe region 13989 100.0 15.7

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Population estimate for:

Area or Land Use CategoryNP / SA Land use

categoryRegion

Population estimate aspercentage of regional

population estimate

Population estimate aspercentage of national

population estimate

South-east LowveldGonarezhou NP 4987 87.9 5.6Malapati SA 5 0.1 0.01

Parks & Wild Life Estate 4992 88.0 5.6Save Valley Conservancy 535 9.4 0.6Malilangwe & Chiredzi R. Conserv. 144 2.5 0.2Communal Area 0 0 0

South-east Lowveld region 5671 100.0 6.4

Other locationsHartley SA 120 14.0 0.1Tuli SA 0 0 0

Parks & Wild Life Estate 120 14.0 0.1Other 736 86.0 0.8

Other locations 856 100.0 1.0

Total for Parks & Wild Life Estate 79839 89.6 %

Total Population Estimate for Zimbabwe 89123

Note: There may be small errors in the totals in this table, due to rounding estimates to zero decimal places

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ZimbabweThere were estimated to be 88 123 (+/- CI 7079) elephants in the five aerial survey regions,plus approximately 1000 elephants outside these. Thus, during the 2001 dry season, therewere estimated to be between about 82 000 and 96 000 elephants in Zimbabwe. Almost 90 %of these were in the Parks & Wild Life Estate (Map 5).

The figure of 88 123 elephants in the air survey regions is the highest ever estimate. Themethods utilised were the same as those used during previous aerial surveys and so it is clearthat the number of elephants within the country is continuing to increase (see PriceWaterhouse Consultants (1996) for previous estimates).

Elephant CarcassesRelatively few fresh or recent carcasses were seen (Tables 8 & 9). Carcass “ratios” variedregionally, from 1.7 % in the Save Valley Conservancy, to 5.8 % in the Sebungwe and themean carcass “ratio” was 3.8 % (Table 10). This low ratio also suggests that the number ofelephants in Zimbabwe is increasing, because a “ratio” of 2-8 % usually indicates a stable orincreasing population number, while a ratio greater than 8 % is indicative of a decliningpopulation number (Douglas-Hamilton et al. 1992).

Carcass “ratios” greater than 8 % were recorded in Zambezi National Park, the southern partof Matetsi Safari Area, Chete Safari Area and the Binga communal lands (Table 16). In theother areas where the carcass “ratio” exceeded 8 % (Malapati SA, Sikumi Forest and thecommunal lands east of Hwange NP, and Mavuradonha Wilderness Area), few elephants –live or dead – were seen and hence the sample sizes may be too small to calculate reliable“ratios”.

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REFERENCES

Douglas-Hamilton, I., Michelmore, F. & Inamdar, A. (1992). African Elephant Database. UNEP,Nairobi.

Dunham, K.M. (2002a). Aerial census of elephants and other large herbivores in GonarezhouNational Park and some bordering lands, Zimbabwe: 2001. Project Paper no. 80, WWF-SARPO, Harare.

Dunham, K.M. (2002b). Aerial census of elephants and other large herbivores in north-westMatabeleland, Zimbabwe: 2001. Project Paper no. 81, WWF-SARPO, Harare.

Dunham, K.M. (2002c). Aerial census of elephants and other large herbivores in the Save ValleyConservancy, Zimbabwe: 2001. Project Paper no. 79, WWF-SARPO, Harare.

Gasaway, W.C., DuBois, S.D. Reed, D.J. & Harbo, S.J. (1986). Estimating moose populationparameters from aerial surveys. Biological Papers of the University of Alaska 22. 108 pp.

Gibson, D. (1992). Formulae for aerial survey analysis. In: Elephant management in Zimbabwe.Second edition. Eds Martin, R.B., Craig, G.C., Booth, V.R. & Conybeare, A.M.G. pp. 67-68. DNPWLM, Harare.

Gwazani, R. & Murindagomo, F. (2001). Nyatana Wildlife Management Area (NWMA) ResourceInventory. WWF-SARPO, Harare.

Jolly, G.M. (1969). Sampling methods for aerial censuses of wildlife populations. E. Afr. Agric.For. J. 34: 46-49.

Mackie, C. (2002a). Aerial census of elephants and other large herbivores in Zambezi Valley,Zimbabwe: 2001. Project Paper no. 77, WWF-SARPO, Harare.

Mackie, C. (2002b). Aerial census of elephants and other large herbivores in Sebungwe Region,Zimbabwe: 2001. Project Paper no. 78, WWF-SARPO, Harare.

Norton Griffiths, M. (1978). Counting Animals. Second edition. African Wildlife LeadershipFoundation, Nairobi.

Price Waterhouse Consultants. (1996). Elephant census in Zimbabwe: 1980 to 1995. An analysisand review. PWC, Harare.

Selier, J. (2001). Final Report on the Progress of the Central Limpopo Valley Elephant ResearchProject. Unpublished report. Centre for Wildlife Management, University of Pretoria,Pretoria.

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

• The following staff members of the DNPWLM served as observers or recorders duringthe aerial surveys: Mr Ngoni Cheweshe; Mr David Chipesi; Ms Tracy Couto; Mr BruceDavison; Mr Crispin Jakopo; Mr Norman Monks; and Mr Fungai Muroki.

• The survey planes were piloted by Mr Jon Cadd and Mr Charles Mackie.

• The following people provided information about small populations of elephants: Mr ToreBallance; Mrs Sarah Clegg; Mr Mike Jones; Mr Kevin Leathem; Mr Derek Littleton; MrEdward Mufandaedza; Mr Graham Robertson; Ms Jeanetta Selier; Mr Alec Strauss; DrClive Swanepoel; Mr Andre Van Eeden; and Mr Alex Van Leenhoff.

• Dr Ivan Bond of WWF SARPO managed the aerial survey programme, but still retainedhis sense of humour. He and Dr Russell Taylor reviewed drafts of this report and theregional survey reports.

• The survey programme was funded by USAID. Additional support for the Gonarezhousurvey was provided by the Malilangwe Conservation Trust, and for the Save ValleyConservancy survey by the International Finance Corporation (SME programme).

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Map 1. The survey region in north-west Matabeleland of Zimbabwe.Map shows (from north to south) Zambezi, Kazuma Pan and Hwange National Parks; thenorthern and southern sections of Matetsi Safari Area, and Deka Safari Area; and PandaMasuie, Kazuma, Sikumi and Ngamo Forest Areas. Elephant density during the 2001 dry

season is indicated for individual survey strata.

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Map 2. The survey region in the unflooded Middle Zambezi Valley of northern Zimbabwe.Map shows Mana Pools National Park, Mavuradonha Wilderness Area and (clockwise from south-west) Charara, Hurungwe, Sapi, Chewore, Dande

and Doma Safari Areas. Elephant density during the 2001 dry season is indicated for individual survey strata.

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Map 3. The survey region in the Sebungwe area of Zimbabwe.Map shows (from north to south) Matusadona and Chizarira National Parks, Chete and

Chirisa Safari Areas, and Sijarira Forest Area. Elephant density during the 2001 dry season isindicated for individual survey strata.

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Map 4. The survey regions in the south-east lowveld of Zimbabwe.Map shows Gonarezhou National Park, Malapati Safari Area and the Save Valley

Conservancy. Elephant density during the 2001 dry season is indicated for individual surveystrata.

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Map 5. The density and distribution of elephants in Zimbabwe during the dry season of 2001,in relation to land use.

Site 1, Protea Farm; site 2, Nyatana Wildlife Management Area; site 3, Hartley Safari Area;site 4, Kavira Forest Land; site 5, Shangani Ranch; site 6, Home Farm and GreystoneRanches; site 7, Mambali Communal Land; site 8, Tuli Safari Area; site 9, Maramani

Communal Land; site 10, Sentinel and Nottingham Ranches; site 11, Bubiana Conservancy;site 12, Bubi Valley Conservancy; site 13, Chiredzi River Conservancy; site 14, Malilangwe

Conservancy; site 15, Sengwe Communal Land

24

APPENDIX. Tables of population estimates and statistics for elephants, elephant bulls,elephants in cow herds, and elephant carcasses in Zimbabwe during 2001. Population

estimates by region (Tables 5-10) and by administrative area (Tables 11-16).

Notes about Tables1. Confidence intervals and confidence limits are 95 % confidence intervals and limits. “No.

seen” is the number seen in the strips during the surveys.

2. There may be small errors in the totals given in some tables. These are rounding errors:estimates, variances and sums were calculated with great precision in a spreadsheet,before being rounded to zero decimal places.

3. Abbreviations are as follows:

Abbreviation MeaningCA Communal AreaCI Confidence IntervalCL Confidence LimitFA Forest AreaNP National ParkNW Mat North-west MatabelelandPWE Parks & Wild Life EstateSA Safari AreaSVC Save Valley ConservancyWA Wilderness AreaZV Zambezi Valley

25

Table 5. Population estimates and statistics for elephants in the aerial survey regions ofZimbabwe during 2001

Region Estimate No. Seen Variance % CI LowerCL

UpperCL

Density(km-2)


535 120 26403 60.2 213 857 0.15

Gonarezhou 4992 728 647475 32.8 3355 6628 0.93NW Matabeleland 49310 4917 9458898 12.3 43222 55398 1.97Zambezi Valley 19297 3000 1617587 13.1 16776 21819 1.13Sebungwe 13989 2253 1146215 15.2 11865 16113 0.90

Totals 88123 11018 12896580 8.0 81044 95202 1.32

Table 6. Population estimates and statistics for elephant bulls in the aerial surveyregions of Zimbabwe during 2001


UpperCL

Density(km-2)


31 7 134 74.0 8 54 0.01


Totals 14011 1644 448047 9.4 12692 15330 0.21

Table 7. Population estimates and statistics for elephants in cow herds in the aerialsurvey regions of Zimbabwe during 2001


UpperCL

Density(km-2)


504 113 26269 63.8 182 825 0.15


Totals 74115 9374 12430522 9.4 67164 81065 1.11

26

Table 8. Population estimates and statistics for fresh carcasses of elephants (agecategory 1) in the aerial survey regions of Zimbabwe during 2001

Survey Region Estimate No. Seen Variance % CI LowerCL

UpperCL

Density(km-2)


0 0 0 0 0 0 0.000


Totals 86 9 1304 88.1 10 161 0.001

Table 9. Population estimates and statistics for recent carcasses of elephants (agecategory 2) in the aerial survey regions of Zimbabwe during 2001


UpperCL

Density(km-2)


0 0 0 0 0 0 0.000

Gonarezhou 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.000NW Matabeleland 58 4 759 98.0 1 114 0.002Zambezi Valley 30 4 273 113.4 0 63 0.002Sebungwe 99 15 911 61.2 38 160 0.006

Totals 186 23 1943 47.0 99 274 0.003

Table 10. Population estimates and statistics for old carcasses of elephants (age category3) and carcass ratios (for all elephant carcasses) in the aerial survey regions of

Zimbabwe during 2001


UpperCL

Density(km-2)

CarcassRatio


9 2 32 125.5 0 20 0.003 1.7

Gonarezhou 159 24 1235 44.1 89 229 0.03 3.3NW Matabeleland 1536 123 30421 22.7 1187 1884 0.06 3.2Zambezi Valley 749 89 9725 27.0 547 951 0.04 3.9Sebungwe 756 119 6115 20.5 601 911 0.05 5.8

Totals 3209 357 47528 13.5 2777 3640 0.05 3.8

27

Table 11. Population estimates and statistics for elephants, by administrative area, inregions surveyed from the air

Save Valley Conservancy

Area Estimate No. Seen Variance % CI LowerCL

UpperCL

Density(km-2)

SVC 535 120 26403 60.2 213 857 0.15

Gonarezhou

Area Estimate No. seen Variance

% CI LowerCL

UpperCL

Density(km-2)

National ParkGonarezhou NP 4987 727 647452 32.8 3350 6624 1.01

Safari AreaMalapati SA 5 1 23 197.6 0 15 0.03

Communal AreaMahenye Ward 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00

Totals 4992 728 647475 32.8 3355 6628 0.93

North-west Matabeleland

Area Estimate

No. Seen Variance % CI LowerCL

UpperCL

Density(km-2)

Matetsi SA / Kazuma Pan NP / Kazuma FA / Panda Masuie FAKazuma Pan NP/FA 482 30 75471 146.6 0 1188 0.86Matetsi SA north 2517 304 536646 60.7 989 4045 1.79Matetsi SA south 546 31 68898 113.7 0 1167 0.29

National ParksHwange NP 44492 4475 8667030 13.1 38654 50329 2.92Zambezi NP 656 52 45234 76.6 153 1159 1.21PWE subtotals 48692 4892 9393279 12.5 42625 54760 2.48

Communal AreasMaitengwe CA 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00Tsholotsho CA 64 2 1628 149.1 0 159 0.07CA subtotals 64 2 1628 149.1 0 159 0.02

Forest AreasNgamo Forest 149 6 6676 152.2 0 376 0.13Sikumi Forest 404 17 57315 140.0 0 971 0.35FA subtotals 553 23 63991 105.4 0 1137 0.24

NW Mat Totals 49310 4917 9458898 12.3 43222 55398 1.97

28

Zambezi Valley


UpperCL

Density(km-2)

National ParkMana Pools NP 3708 579 205847 24.9 2783 4632 1.70

Safari AreasHurungwe SA 3745 539 358941 32.7 2521 4968 1.23Sapi SA 1991 318 111229 34.6 1302 2679 1.80Chewore SA 5741 959 349714 20.7 4551 6932 1.69Charara SA 590 117 41046 75.6 144 1036 0.35Doma SA 336 54 38156 124.8 0 755 0.34PWE subtotals 16110 2566 1104934 12.9 14032 18189 1.30

Communal AreasGuruve CA 2946 375 489615 50.6 1455 4437 0.79Mukwichi CA 228 54 22860 156.5 0 586 0.68CA subtotals 3174 429 512475 47.8 1657 4692 0.78

Wilderness AreaMavuradonha WA 13 5 179 264.6 0 47 0.01

ZV Totals 19297 3000 1617587 13.1 16776 21819 1.13

Sebungwe

Area Estimate No.Seen

Variance % CI LowerCL

UpperCL

Density(km-2)

National ParksChizarira NP 5011 836 357171 24.3 3792 6230 2.40Matusadona NP 1716 337 94717 46.1 925 2507 1.21

Safari AreasChirisa SA 1977 320 309752 59.7 797 3157 1.29Chete SA 1219 165 76516 47.3 642 1796 0.97PWE subtotals 9923 1658 838156 18.5 8092 11754 1.58

Forest AreaSijarira Forest 33 2 382 253.4 0 117 0.12

Communal AreasNorth Gokwe CA 791 131 100443 86.5 106 1476 0.26Binga CA 869 93 39603 47.2 459 1279 0.31Kariba CA 2373 369 167631 35.1 1541 3205 0.74CA subtotals 4033 593 307677 27.5 2923 5143 0.44

Sebungwe Totals 13989 2253 1146215 15.2 11865 16113 0.90

29

Table 12. Population estimates and statistics for elephant bulls, by administrative area,in regions surveyed from the air



UpperCL

Density(km-2)

SVC 31 7 134 74.0 8 54 0.01

Gonarezhou

Area Estimate No. seen Variance % CI LowerCL

UpperCL

Density(km-2)




Totals 718 108 12829 31.8 490 946 0.13



UpperCL

Density(km-2)

Matetsi SA / Kazuma Pan NP / Kazuma FA / Panda Masuie FAKazuma PanNP/FA

112 7 16408 292.9 0 442 0.20

Matetsi SA north 389 43 14878 64.7 137 641 0.28Matetsi SA south 144 10 2961 89.1 16 273 0.08


Communal AreasMaitengwe CA 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00Tsholotsho CA 64 2 1628 149.1 0 159 0.07CA subtotals 64 2 1628 149.1 0 159 0.02


NW Mat Totals 8538 806 314205 13.0 7429 9647 0.34

30

Zambezi Valley


UpperCL

Density(km-2)





ZV Totals 2062 303 57077 23.4 1579 2546 0.12

Sebungwe



UpperCL

Density(km-2)





Sebungwe Totals 2661 420 63802 19.0 2156 3166 0.17

31

Table 13. Population estimates and statistics for elephants in cow herds, byadministrative area, in regions surveyed from the air



UpperCL

Density(km-2)

SVC 504 113 26269 63.8 182 825 0.15

Gonarezhou


UpperCL

Density(km-2)




Totals 4273 620 634647 38.0 2651 5896 0.80



UpperCL

Density(km-2)


369 23 59064 169.1 0 994 0.66



Communal AreasTsholotsho CA 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00Maitengwe CA 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00CA subtotals 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00


NW Mat Totals 40772 4111 9144693 14.7 34785 46759 1.63

32

Zambezi Valley


UpperCL

Density(km-2)





ZV Totals 17237 2697 1551404 14.3 14768 19706 1.01

Sebungwe



UpperCL

Density(km-2)





Sebungwe Totals 11329 1833 1073508 18.1 9273 13385 0.73

33

Table 14. Population estimates and statistics for fresh carcasses of elephants (agecategory 1), by administrative area, in regions surveyed from the air



UpperCL

Density(km-2)

SVC 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00

Gonarezhou


UpperCL

Density(km-2)


Safari AreaMalapati 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00


Totals 14 2 77 126.8 0 32 0.002



UpperCL

Density(km-2)


0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00


National ParkHwange NP 46 3 1019 149.8 0 116 0.003Zambezi NP 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00PWE subtotals 46 3 1019 149.8 0 116 0.002



NW Mat Totals 46 3 1019 149.8 0 116 0.002

34

Zambezi Valley


UpperCL

Density(km-2)





ZV Totals 14 2 95 140.3 0 34 0.001

Sebungwe



UpperCL

Density(km-2)



Forest LandSijarira Forest 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00


Sebungwe Totals 12 2 113 187.8 0 35 0.001

35

Table 15. Population estimates and statistics for recent carcasses of elephants (agecategory 2), by administrative area, in regions surveyed from the air



UpperCL

Density(km-2)

SVC 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00

Gonarezhou


UpperCL

Density(km-2)




Totals 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00



UpperCL

Density(km-2)


0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00





36


UpperCL

Density(km-2)

NW Mat Totals 58 4 759 98.0 1 114 0.002Zambezi Valley


UpperCL

Density(km-2)





ZV Totals 30 4 273 113.4 0 63 0.002

Sebungwe



UpperCL

Density(km-2)



Forest LandSijarira Forest 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00


Sebungwe Totals 99 15 911 61.2 38 160 0.01

37

Table 16. Population estimates and statistics for old carcasses of elephants (age category3) and carcass ratios (for all elephant carcasses), by administrative area, in regions

surveyed from the air



UpperCL

Density(km-2)

CarcassRatio

SVC 9 2 32 125.5 0 20 0.003 1.7

Gonarezhou


UpperCL

Density(km-2)

CarcassRatio

National ParkGonarezhou NP 154 23 1211 45.2 84 224 0.03 3.3

Safari AreaMalapati SA 5 1 24 200.3 0 16 0.03 50.0

Communal AreaMahenye Ward 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 - a

Totals 159 24 1235 44.1 89 229 0.03 3.3a no dead or live elephants seen in this area



UpperCL

Density(km-2)

Carcassratio

Matetsi SA / Kazuma Pan NP / Kazuma FA / Panda Masuie FAKazuma Pan NP/FA 32 2 1062 260.8 0 116 0.06 6.3Matetsi SA north 170 17 941 37.5 106 233 0.12 6.3Matetsi SA south 199 11 6315 102.8 0 403 0.11 26.7

National ParksHwange NP 739 72 12074 29.9 518 960 0.05 1.8Zambezi NP 151 12 2802 82.7 26 277 0.28 20.0PWE subtotals 1291 114 23195 23.8 984 1598 0.07 2.8

Communal AreasTsholotsho CA 117 4 2484 94.9 6 228 0.06 64.6Maitengwe CA 57 2 2305 217.3 0 180 0.05 100 b

CA subtotals 174 6 4789 86.0 24 323 0.06 73.1

Forest AreasNgamo Forest 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 0Sikumi Forest 71 3 2438 163.6 0 188 0.06 15.0FA subtotals 71 3 2438 163.6 0 188 0.03 11.4

NW Mat Totals 1536 123 30421 22.7 1187 1884 0.06 3.2b no live elephants seen in this area, hence carcass ratio = 100

38

Zambezi Valley


UpperCL

Density(km-2)

Carcassratio

National ParkMana Pools NP 160 22 1597 52.8 75 244 0.07 4.1

Safari AreasHurungwe SA 230 31 1532 34.5 150 309 0.08 6.6Sapi SA 48 7 310 76.5 11 85 0.04 2.4Chewore SA 66 10 452 67.2 22 110 0.02 1.2Charara SA 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 0Doma SA 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 0PWE subtotals 503 70 3890 24.7 379 628 0.04 3.3

Communal AreasGuruve CA 240 18 5809 70.7 70 410 0.06 7.5Mukwichi CA 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 0CA subtotals 240 18 5809 70.7 70 410 0.06 7.0

Wilderness AreaMavuradonha WA 5 1 26 262.2 0 18 0.01 27.8

ZV Totals 749 89 9725 27.0 547 951 0.04 3.9

Sebungwe



UpperCL

Density(km-2)

Carcassratio

National ParkChizarira NP 219 37 2026 43.4 124 314 0.11 4.7Matusadona NP 34 7 158 76.9 8 60 0.02 1.9

Safari AreasChirisa SA 100 16 640 52.3 48 152 0.07 5.4Chete SA 146 21 773 39.0 89 203 0.12 10.7PWE subtotals 499 81 3597 24.2 378 620 0.08 5.2

Forest AreaSijarira Forest 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.00 0

Communal AreasNorth Gokwe CA 29 5 118 80.9 6 52 0.01 4.9Binga CA 72 7 1332 105.7 0 148 0.03 10.3Kariba CA 156 26 1068 42.0 91 221 0.05 7.2CA subtotals 257 38 2518 39.1 157 357 0.03 7.5

Sebungwe Totals 756 119 6115 20.5 601 911 0.05 5.8

Documents

NATIONAL SUMMARY OF AERIAL CENSUS RESULTS FOR ELEPHANT …d2ouvy59p0dg6k.cloudfront.net/downloads/national_summary.pdf · Map 3. The survey region in the Sebungwe area of Zimbabwe.....21