National Statistics Status and Results

National Statistics Status and Results

Alex HasbachDaniel Karp

Heather Tallis

OutlineMethods• Acquired data and limitations

Results• Global trajectories• Temporal tradeoffs between services• Spatial tradeoffs between services• Imports vs. In-Country Production

Acquired Data- Broad Categories

• Crop production

• Livestock production

• Timber production

• Water production

Valuation

• SLC (Standard Local Currency)– Producer prices in local currency

• PIN– Use international commodity prices so that

exchange rates are not needed. – “International dollars.” Same price, regardless of

the country it was produced. 1999-2001 prices.– Geary Khamis formula

Broad Category Sub Category Variable ObtainedCrops Total Production

Value

Export: Production

Export: Value

Import: Production

Import: Value

Forage Production

Value

Export: Production

Export: Value

Import: Production

Import: Value

13 Primary Crops Production

Value

Export: Production

Export: Value

Import: Production

Import: Value

Livestock Live Animals Heads/Stocks

Value

Export: Production

Export: Value

Import: Production

Import: Value

Primary Products Heads/Stocks

Value

Export: Production

Export: Value

Import: Production

Import: Value

Processed Products Production

Value

Obtained: Missing:

Roundwood Production Total Quantity

Value

Export: Production

Export: Value

Import: Production

Import: Value

Water Total Quantity

Value

Municipal Withdrawal Quantity

Value

Industrial Withdrawal Quantity

Value

Agricultural Withdrawal Quantity

Value

Obtained: Missing:

Water Values?

Global water tariffs database assigned by public utility.

Done by organization for economic co-operation and development (OECD) and Global Water Intelligence (GWI)

Need to subscribe to database.

261 cities worldwide

15m3/d water, include fixed and variable charges, then divide by 15

Uncertainty• FAO Categories:– M: Missing data– R: Estimated data (using trading partners database)– F: FAO estimate (used for quantities, like tonnes)– Fc: Calculated data (used for functions, like yield)– L: Modeled data– A: Aggregate (official, semi-official, or estimated data)– *: Unofficial Figure

• Data may be 0 or blank• For: (1) total crops, (2) 13 crops, (3) primary livestock

products, (4) processed livestock products, (5) live animals values are summed

• Therefore, we are analyzing reported not actual production

Preliminary Results

• All focus on:– Total Timber Production– Total Livestock Production– Total Crop Production

Raw Data- Exports of 13 Crops in 1995

Global Trajectories

• Countries are included if– Nonzero values of production are reported for all

years– At least 7 unique values are given

Crops

Livestock

Timber

Temporal Tradeoffs Between Services

• Only included a country, if for each service:– At least 6 unique values of production are given

over the 14-year span

Livestock and Crops

Timber and Crops

Livestock and Timber

Tradeoffs in Services Over Space

• Only included a country if for both services….– A non-zero value of production was reported for the

year in question• Production is reported per total country area

(1000ha)

Water- 2000

P=.06

Tradeoffs in Trade

• Only included a country if:– At 7 least, unique, non-zero years of data were reported– No blanks occurred in the dataset

Timber: Production vs. Imports

Livestock: Production vs. Imports

Next steps? Directions?

• Are these analyses useful? • Aggregation and summing over missing values?• Trend in increasing correlation coefficients?• Is water data worthwhile?• Should we add water price? • Multiply livestock by masses?• How do we combine this with modeling results?

Extra Slides

Net Total Crops (no feed/seed)

Quantity (tonnes)Value (SLC)

13 Primary Crops

Quantity (tonnes)Value (PIN)

Crops for ForageQuantity (tonnes)Value (SLC)

Import Crops Export CropsQuantity (tonnes)Value (PIN)






Ag Value- Livestock Value(counts processed products.

Wine, e.g)

Total Livestock

Heads/stocks Value

Live Animals

QuantityValue

Primary Products (eggs, milk, etc.)


Processed Products(butter etc.)Quantity (tonnes)Value

Red indicatesmissing information

ImportExportQuantity (tonnes)Value (PIN)


ImportExportQuantityValue (PIN)

Quantity Value (PIN)

Total Roundwood Production

VolumePIN value

Import Roundwood

Quantity (volume)Value

Export RoundwoodVolumePIN value


Roundwood: “Wood in natural state as felled. All wood from trees inside and outside forest including from natural, felling, or logging losses. Commodities include: sawlogs, pulpwood, fuelwood, etc. ”

Total Water Withdrawal


Municipalwithdrawal


Industrial withdrawal


AgriculturalwithdrawalQuantity (volume)Value


NOTE: Data is very spotty. Max 3 data points per country (usually less)

Documents

National Statistics Status and Results