National Opinion Poll: April 2018 · 5 -15 2014 % Jul 18 ... 18th 2014 Jan 29th-Feb 9th 2015 Mar 24th-Apr 2nd 2015 19th-26th Jun 2015 19th-30th Jul 2015 28th Oct-6th Nov 2015

1

National Opinion Poll: April 2018- for Publication on 6th May

41111511/PM

2

Introduction

A National Public Opinion Poll was conducted on behalf of The Sunday Independent to be published on Sunday 6th

May 2018.

The topics covered included party political support, satisfaction with Government and party leaders, the confidence

and supply agreement, attitudes towards the upcoming Referendum on the 8th Amendment, including voting

intentions and strength of convictions.

Interviews were conducted face-to-face, in-home, with those aged 18+.

Quota controls were set on gender, age, social class and region to mirror the 18+ population profile.

1,003 interviews were conducted at 64 sampling points nationwide.

Interviews were carried out between 18th – 30th April 2018.

Data was weighted to reflect the adult population aged 18+.

The margin of error for this opinion poll is +/- 3.1%.

3

Introduction

The survey results presented here are derived from The Independent Newspaper Group/ Kantar

Millward Brown Poll. The poll was conducted among a sample of 1,003 adults representative of

the approximate 3.57 million adults aged 18 and over - interviewed on a face-to-face basis in-

home at 64 sampling points throughout the Republic of Ireland. The margin of error for this

opinion poll is +/- 3.1%

The 1,003 interviews in the poll were carried out between 18th – 30th April 2018.

The poll was conducted in accordance with the guidelines set by ESOMAR and AIMRO

(European and Irish Market and Opinion Research governing bodies). Extracts from the report

may be quoted or published on condition that due acknowledgement is given to Kantar Millward

Brown and The Sunday Independent.

© Kantar Millward Brown & The Sunday Independent 2018.

POLL

The Results

5

Nothing can be taken for granted as Referendum Poll shows Narrow Gap

This latest Sunday Independent / Kantar Millward Brown opinion poll, conducted over 12 days up to and including last Monday, will certainly focus the

minds on both sides of the 8th debate. It will serve as a clarion call to all, as it illustrates that with three more weeks to go, there is still plenty of hard

graft to be done, and nothing can be taken for granted.

The Repeal side, for so long in the ascendency, may be somewhat alarmed to see that the gap between both sides is relatively narrow.

Traditionally polls on plebiscites are reported on by those decided in their intentions – excluding the don’t knows. By this measure, the Yes side leads

by 57:43. However, for this referendum, this is at best simplistic, and arguably quite dangerous.

Looking at the overall electorate, 45pc are in favour of repeal versus 34pc against. That leaves a hardly insignificant 22pc of the pot left to play for

(18pc undecided and 4pc refusing to say).

The undecided, and the turnout, will dictate the final score of this referendum, although at this juncture, it still looks certain that the amendment will be

carried.

Focussing first on these floating voters, there is a school of thought that in referenda, those that are unsure tend to opt for the status quo. This well

may be the case in terms of more complex, legislative votes (think Lisbon or Nice before it), but this time it is different. It would seem that many are

genuinely unsure of what the best action should be (this also is evident among those that have made their decision).

In addition, we have to assume that there is a “Shy Tory” effect for some – they may well have made up their mind, but for their own reasons, are not

prepared to disclose it. For these reasons alone, there is still plenty of fire left in this campaign.

One of the more pressing issues seems to be the proposal of unrestricted access to abortion to up 12 weeks. There have been some shifts in opinion

since we last asked the question in February. Combined, those stating that the proposal is about right/does not go far enough, has risen to 53pc

(previously being 48pc). But this still leaves a combined 47pc either having reservations or undecided – From a statistical point of view, this is classic

margin of error territory.

6

Nothing can be taken for granted as Referendum Poll shows Narrow Gap (cont’d)

Those most likely to feel that this proposal goes too far tend to be older (55+), more rural, and supporters of Fianna Fail. In contrast, those aged 25-34

and Dubliners are most in favour. A slim majority of females of traditional child bearing age (18-44) feel that the proposal is about right (51pc).

Looking at the headline figure in more detail, there are some striking, if not altogether unsurprising, trends. There is a stark generational divide in

terms of those who are in favour of repeal. Over half (56pc) of those under 35 are in favour of the amendment, versus just one in three of those aged

55+. Of course, the implication here is not so much in terms of voting intent, but rather propensity to vote.

Traditionally turnout on the day is higher among certain cohorts, namely older, more affluent and rural voters. Turnout will be critical. We saw in the

Same Sex Marriage referendum, held nearly three years to the day from this referendum, that the youth vote was galvanised to vote on the day. One

suspects it will be no different this time out.

A more interesting finding is the stark East/West divide. Dublin and the Eastern seaboard has traditionally been considered more liberal, and this poll

reinforces that view. 51pc of Dubliners, and 46pc of Leinster residents are in favour of repeal, versus 41pc and 37pc of Munster and Conn/Ulster

residents respectively. In some respects this East/West divide is symptomatic of rural depopulation.

Among supporters of the various parties, the standout figure is that of Fianna Fail supporters. They mirror the flux that is so apparent within their

parliamentary party. While supporters of all other main parties tow the party line, and are in favour of repeal, Fianna Fail supporters are divided. 39pc

are in favour, versus 41pc against.

On the face of it, all things point to a Yes vote. However, the final three weeks will still be critical. It is by no means certain that even those who have

made up their minds are steadfast in their view – one in six overall (17pc) have the potential to waver. 14pc either have some reservations/doubts

(16pc of Yes voters vs 11pc of No voters) and a further 3pc are not certain at all (2pc vs 4pc respectively).

Effective communications over the next three weeks will be key for both sides, in order to attract the endorsement of a somewhat dubious electorate.

National Opinion Poll:Party Support Trended Questions

8

Party Support – First Preference – Including Don’t Knows

Q. If a General Election were to take place tomorrow, to which Party or independent candidate

would you give your first preference vote?

Opinion PollApril 2018Including

Don’t Knows%

Opinion PollApril 2018Excluding

Don’t Knows%

26

7

24

3

18

243

14

Independents/others

GeneralElection Result

2016%

Fianna Fáil

Fine Gael

Labour

Sinn Féin

Green Party

Renua IrelandAAA-PBP

Social Democrats

28

4

22

2

18

7

20

34

5

27

3

22

8Others

Fianna Fáil

Fine Gael

Labour

Sinn Féin

Green Party

Base: All Aged 18+ (1,003)

Others

Fianna Fáil

Fine Gael

Labour

Sinn Féin

Don’t know

Green Party

9

Party Support First Preference (excluding don’t knows)



Base: All giving a first preference

26 29 27 28 27 27 30 27 29 25 25 22 22 25 25 2924

29 27 26 30 29 2530

36 34

2928

25 27 27 2426

2122

20 2120 18

19 19

2323

2422 24

26 27 3329

2827

19 1921 19 19 21

1622 20

24 22 2621

26 24

2121

2121

14

20 20 20 2020 22

8 88 10 9 9 12

8 6 7 9 7

5

6 86

7

76

7

7 8 6 74 5

1 12

1 1 11

2 2 1 1 1

2

1 3 11

11

3

3 2 2 2 2 318 15 18 14 17 18 15

20 21 23 23 2332

23 20 20 2419

22 27

14 15 14 13 11 8

Independents/others*

Green Party

Labour

Sinn Féin

Fianna Fáil

Fine Gael

* Includes all other parties

Independents/Others:October

2016February

2017July2017

February2018

April2018

AAA-PBP 2% 3% 1% 1% 1%

Social Democrats 1% 2% * 1% *

Independent Candidates/ Other

Parties6% 4% 7% 6% 2%

Independent Alliance 5% 5% 5% 3% 5%

June20th–28th

2013%

Aug3rd-12th

2013%

Aug17th-27th

2013%

Sep13th–25th

2013%

Sep 30th -

Oct 9th

%

Nov 3rd-13th

%

Jan15th-24th

2014 %

Feb19th-28th

2014 %

Apr5th-15th

2014 %

Jul18th–30th

2014 %

Sep9th-18th

2014 %

Oct 21st–31st

2014%

Dec8th-18th

2014%

Jan 30th-Feb 9th

2015%

Mar 24th - Apr 2nd

2015%

19th-26th

June 2015

%

19th-30th

July 2015

%

28th Oct-6th Nov

2015%

25th Jan-4th Feb2016

%

GeneralElection

2016%

18th -30th

June2016

%

8th-20th

Oct2016

%

6th-16th

Feb2017

%

9th-21st July2017

%

6th-14th

Feb2018

%

18th-30th

April2018

%

10Q. If a General Election were to take place tomorrow, to which Party or independent candidate would

you give your first preference vote?

Party Support First Preference (excluding don’t knows)

26

2927 28 27 27

30

2729

25 25

22 22

25 25

29

24

2927 26

30 29

25

30

3634

29 28

2527 27

2426

21 2220 21 20

18 19 19

23 23 2422

2426 27

33

29 28 27

19 1921

19 1921

16

2220

2422

26

21

2624

21 21 21 21

14

20 20 20 20 2022

8 8 810 9 9

12

86 7

97

5 68

6 7 7 6 7 7 86 7

4 5

1 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 2 13

1 1 1 13 3 2 2 2 2 3

18

15

18

14

17 18

15

20 2123 23 23

32

23

20 20

24

19

22

27

14 15 14 1311

8

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Jun 20th-28th 2013

Aug 3rd-12th 2013

Aug 17th-27th 2013

Sep 13th-25th 2013

Sep 30th-Oct 9th

Nov 3rd-13th

Jan 15th-24th 2014

Feb 19th-24th 2014

Apr 5th-15th 2014

Jul 18th-30th 2014

Sep 9th-18th 2014

Oct 21st-31st 2014

Dec 8th-18th 2014

Jan 29th-Feb 9th

2015

Mar 24th-Apr 2nd

2015

19th-26thJun 2015

19th-30thJul 2015

28th Oct-6th Nov

2015

25th Jan -4th Feb

2016

GeneralElection

2016

18th-30thJune 2016

8th-20thOct 2016

6th-16thFeb 2017

9th-21stJuly 2017

6th-14thFeb 2018

18th-30thApril 2018

Fine Gael Fianna Fail Sinn Fein Labour Green Party Independents/Others*


Independents/Others:October

2016February

2017July 2017

February2018

April2018

Solidarity-PBP 2% 3% 1% 1% 1

Social Democrats 1% 2% * 1% *

Independent Candidates/ Other

Parties6% 4% 7% 6% 2

Independent Alliance 5% 5% 5% 3% 5


11

Trended Party Support First Preference (excluding don’t knows)



28272730

27292525

22222525

2924

2927263029

2530

3634

27272426

21222021201819192323242224262627

33292827

19192116

22202422

2621

262421212121

14202020202022

10 9 912

8 6 7 9 7 5 6 8 6 7 7 6 7 7 8 6 74 5

141718

152021232323

32

232020

2419

2227

141716151311

INDEPENDENTSOTHERS*

*Includes all others (including Greens)


12Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country?

Satisfaction with the Government has stabilised. Nearly half are happy with its performance

46%48%

7%

Don’t know(7%)

Dissatisfied(45%)

Satisfied(49%)

One in Two are happy

( ) = February 2018 Results

HIGHER AMONG %

Fine Gael Supporters 84

Dublin Residents 65

Farming Community* 60

ABs 54

Males 52

55+ 51


HIGHER AMONG %

Sinn Féin Supporters 80

Labour Supporters* 58

Conn/Ulster residents 58

Rural Residents 55

DEs 55

Munster Residents 55

Uncommitted Voters 52

Independents/Others Supporters 51

*Caution small base

13

Satisfaction with Government Over Time – Opinion is somewhat polarised on the performance of the

Government more recently

75 73 72 71 73 7468 71

66 6962

73 71 68 6963 67

60 62 60 62 64

5045 46

17 19 19 2021 19

23 2024

2327

2119 23

2629 25

32 2928

31 27

40 49 48

7 7 10 9 6 7 10 9 9 8 116

9 9 5 8 8 8 9 118 9 10

7 7

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

Don’t know

2013Results

2014Results

2015Results

2016Results

2017Results

June20th–28th

2013%

Aug3rd-12th

2013%

Aug17th-27th

2013%

Sep13th–25th

2013%

Sep 30th -

Oct 9th

2013%

Nov 3rd-13th

2013%

Jan15th-24th

2014 %

Feb19th-28th

2014 %

Apr5th-15th

2014 %

Jul18th–30th

2014 %

Sep9th-18th

2014 %

Oct 21st–31st

2014%

Dec8th-18th

2014%

Jan 30th-Feb 9th

2015%

Mar 24th - Apr 2nd

2015%

19th-26th

June 2015

%

19th-30th

July 2015

%

28th Oct-6th Nov 2015

%

25th Jan-4th Feb2016

%

18th -30th

June2016

%

8th-20th

Oct2016

%

6th-16th

Feb2017

%

9th-21st

July2017

%

6th-14th

Feb2018

%

18th-30th

April2018

%


2018Results

14

Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Leo Varadkar as Taoiseach?

Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Brendan Howlin is doing his job as leader of Labour?

Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Michéal Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fáil?

Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mary Lou McDonald is doing her job as leader of Sinn

Féin?

Satisfaction with Party Leaders


24 27 3225 31 27 27 29 27

4958 56

23 25 26 20 24 22 27 25 26 28 22 26 29 30 36 32 32 27

43 43 44 45 48 4429 32 30 30 27 27 31 29 30 35 39

46

64 6759

66 60 62 63 59 62

28 29 34

61 6557

65 62 62

43 47 48 43 48 50 4957

45 49 49 4838 40 40 36 36 39

50 56 52 51 55 51 51 51 5444

37 37

Joan Burton Michéal Martin Gerry AdamsBrendan Howlin

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

Don’t know

Feb’15%

Mar/Apr’15%

Jun’15%

Jul’15%

Oct/Nov’15%

Feb’16%

Jun’16%

Oct’16%

Feb‘17%

Jul‘17%

Feb‘18%

Apr‘18%

Enda Kenny Leo Varadkar Mary Lou McDonald

(12) (7) (9) (9) (9) (11) (11) (12) (11) (24) (13) (10) (16) (11) (16) (14) (14) (16) (30) (27) (26) (29) (30) (25) (22) (13) (19) (19) (20) (25) (18) (18) (16) (19) (16) (17) (21) (12) (18) (19) (18) (21) (18) (19) (16) (22) (24) (17)

Feb’15%

Mar/Apr’15%

Jun’15%

Jul’15%

Oct/Nov’15%

Feb’16%

Jun’16%

Oct’16%

Feb‘17%

Jul‘17%

Feb‘18%

Apr‘18%

Feb’15%

Mar/Apr’15%

Jun’15%

Jul’15%

Oct/Nov’15%

Feb’16%

Jun’16%

Oct’16%

Feb‘17%

Jul‘17%

Feb‘18%

Apr‘18%

Feb’15%

Mar/Apr’15%

Jun’15%

Jul’15%

Oct/Nov’15%

Feb’16%

Jun’16%

Oct’16%

Feb‘17%

Jul‘17%

Feb‘18%

Apr‘18%

15Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Leo Varadkar as Taoiseach?

Satisfaction with An Taoiseach Leo Varadkar

34%

56%

10%

Don’t know(13%)

Dissatisfied(29%)

Satisfied(58%)


HIGHER AMONG %


Satisfied with Gov't 88

Dublin Residents 71


35-44 65

ABs 63

C2s 62

Urban Residents 59


HIGHER AMONG %


Dissatisfied with Gov't 65

DEs 48

Conn/Ulster Residents 46

45-54 42


Fianna Fáil Supporters 39

Rural Residents 37


*Caution – small base size

16Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Brendan Howlin is doing his job as leader of Labour?

Satisfaction with Brendan Howlin

50%26%

25% Don’t know(30%)

Dissatisfied(48%) Satisfied

(22%)


HIGHER AMONG %




C2s 37

Dublin Residents 34

25-44 30

Males 29

HIGHER AMONG %


45-54 62


55-64 57

Dublin Residents 56

DEs 55

ABs 54

Urban Residents 54

65+ 54




17Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Michéal Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fáil?

Satisfaction with Michéal Martin

HIGHER AMONG %




C1s 47

65+ 53


39%

44%

17%

Don’t know(16%)


(48%)

HIGHER AMONG %


Dublin Residents 49

Independents/Others

Supporters46



35-54 43




18Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mary Lou McDonald is doing her job as leader of Sinn

Féin?

Satisfaction with Mary Lou McDonald

HIGHER AMONG %


C2s 53

25-34 52

Rural Residents 52

55-64 50

Leinster Residents 49

37% 46%

17%

Don’t know(24%)


(39%)

HIGHER AMONG %

Independents/Others

Supporters51


Dublin Residents 46


ABs 46

45-54 45



Urban Community 43

65+ 43

C1s 43


*Caution – small base size( ) = February 2018 Results

19

Satisfaction with Party Leaders X Party Support

Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Leo Varadkar as Taoiseach?Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Brendan Howlin is doing his job as leader of Labour?Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Michéal Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fáil?Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mary Lou McDonald is doing her job as leader of Sinn Féin?

56%

26%

44%

46%

Total

34%

50%

39%

37%

8 35 39 69 36

43 13 53 79 53

45 38 14 63 46

49 46 44 10 51

Supporters%

Supporters*%

Supporters%

Supporters%

Independent/ Other PartySupporters*

%

89 59 56 27 51

40 79 25 9 21

43 55 81 26 40

38 43 45 86 36


Dissatisfied

Satisfied

# Previously Gerry Adams



Leo Varadkar (49) (58)

Brendan Howlin (28) (22)

Michéal Martin (45) (48)

Mary Lou McDonald (35)# (39)

Leo Varadkar (28) (29)

Brendan Howlin (43) (48)

Michéal Martin (36) (36)

Mary Lou

McDonald(44)# (37)

July

2017

Feb

2018

Apr

2018

20

Which Parties are most toxic to whom? Fianna Fáil remain the least toxic of the main parties

Q. Which of the following parties or political groupings would you NOT consider voting for in any

upcoming election?

()=previous results

WOULD NOT

CONSIDER



27%

26%

21%

34%

24%

24%

21%

Feb

2016

June

2016

Oct

2016

Feb

2017

July

2017

Feb

2018

Fine Gael (34) (35) (32) (32) (25) (22)

Labour (31) (28) (22) (24) (25) (24)

Fianna Fáil (24) (25) (21) (21) (18) (17)

Sinn Féin (37) (40) (38) (36) (34) (36)

Solidarity/People Before

Profit(16) (17) (18) (22) (24) (21)

Green Party (n/a) (18) (17) (20) (24) (22)

Social Democrats (9) (8) (10) (14) (19) (18)

Apr

2018Supporters

%Supporters*

%Supporters

%Supporters

%

Independent/ Other partySupporters

%

- 32 32 67 40

16 - 40 41 25

21 26 - 51 30

49 41 50 - 39

30 16 35 17 13

21 18 37 27 21

27 13 27 14 12


21Q. The current government is held together by a “Confidence and Supply” agreement between Fine Gael

and Fianna Fáil for three budgets. The third budget is this October. Do you think these parties should

renew their deal after the budget, or should there be a general election?

One in three want to have the Confidence and Supply Agreement renewed.

40%

32%

10%19%

HIGHER AMONG %


Ind/Others 51

C2s 46

Dublin Residents 46



35-54 45


Don’t know

It depends

Should be aGeneral Election

Should renew Agreement

HIGHER AMONG %

Leinster 46


65+ 45

Satisfied with Gov't 44

55-64 42

ABs 42

Rural Residents 37


HIGHER AMONG %

Conn/Ulster 34


25-34 26

Undecided 26

Dublin Residents 25


• Additional Issues for

publication:

The 8th Amendment

23

Q. The Oireachtas Committee on the Eighth Amendment, which currently gives equal right to life to the

mother and the foetus, has recommended that Abortion should be available without restriction up to

12 weeks of pregnancy. Do you think that this recommendation goes too far, not far enough, or is

about right?

Opinions on the 12 week Abortion Proposal. One in three have reservations, and there still is a

substantial minority undecided

32%

11%

15%42%

HIGHER AMONG %


65+ 48


55-64 45

Rural Residents 43


DEs 38

Leinster Residents 35


Too far(33%)

OPINIONS ON THE 12 WEEK ABORTION

PROPOSAL

Don’t know/Refusal(19%)About right

(40%)

Not far enough(8%)

*Caution – small base size( ) = February 2018 Results

HIGHER AMONG %

25-34 54

C2s 53

Females 18-44 51

Dublin 51

Ind/Others 49

35-44 48

18-24 47


24Q. A referendum will be held in May to amend the constitution to repeal the 8th amendment of the

constitution. Will you vote in favour or against this amendment?

There is a clear majority in favour of Repeal of the 8th , although over one in five are keeping

their cards close to their chests

34%

45%

18%

4%


Including undecideds

Don’t know

43%

57%

Excluding undecideds

Will voteagainst

Base: All who have made up their minds (n=787)

Will votein favour

Refused

Will voteagainst

Will votein favour

25

Nearly one in five of those who have made a decision are still uncertain of their choice

Q. How certain are you about your decision to vote the way you intend to?

R. A referendum will be held in May to amend the constitution to Repeal the 8th amendment of

the constitution. Will you vote in favour or against this referendum?

Base: All who have decided how to vote (787)

82%

52%

30%

17%

14%

3%

1%

Apr

2018

Voting infavour(453)

%

VotingAgainst

(334)%

81 84

49 56

32 28

18 15

16 11

2 4

1 1

All certain (Combined)

Absolutely certain

Pretty certain

All uncertain (Combined)

Some reservations/doubts

Not at all certain

Don't know

26

Voting intentions x Demographics: The Yes side is heavily skewed toward younger voters

Q. A referendum will be held in May to amend the constitution to Repeal the 8th amendment of



45%

34%

18%

4%

Apr

2018 Male%

Female%

18-24%

25-34%

35-44%

45-54%

55-64%

65+%

Females18-44

%

42 47 58 54 48 44 35 32 54

33 35 21 27 27 31 43 51 27

21 15 18 15 21 19 18 15 15

4 4 3 4 3 6 5 2 4

Will vote in favour

Will vote against

Don't know

Refused

Sex Age

Voting intentions by Demographics

27Q. A referendum will be held in May to amend the constitution to Repeal the 8th amendment of



45%

34%

18%

4%

Apr

2018 AB%

C1%

C2%

DE%

F*%

Dublin%

Rest ofLeinster

%Munster

%

Conn/Ulster

%

44 51 47 42 18 51 46 41 37

32 30 30 35 62 29 33 37 38

16 15 19 19 20 12 19 20 22

8 3 4 4 - 8 2 2 2

Will vote in favour

Will vote against

Don't know

Refused

Social Class Region

Voting intentions by Demographics


Voting intentions x Demographics: Dublin is driving the Yes side, but there is a distinct

East/West divide

28Q. A referendum will be held in May to amend the constitution to Repeal the 8th amendment of



45%

34%

18%

4%

Apr

2018 Fianna Fáil%

Fine Gael%

Labour*%

Sinn Féin%

Ind/Other%

39 44 29 52 45

41 33 46 35 26

18 18 13 11 28

2 5 12 2 1

Will vote in favour

Will vote against

Don't know

Refused

Voting intentions by Party Support


Voting intentions x Party Support: Of the main parties, Fianna Fáil supporters are most

polarised

2941111511/PM

For more information, please contact: Paul Moran [email protected] 087 286 0773

6 Ely Place Dublin 2

t. +353 (1) 297 4500 | www.millwardbrown.com/ie

Documents

National Opinion Poll: April 2018 · 5 -15 2014 % Jul 18 ... 18th 2014 Jan 29th-Feb 9th 2015 Mar 24th-Apr 2nd 2015 19th-26th Jun 2015 19th-30th Jul 2015 28th Oct-6th Nov 2015