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National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)Drought Early Warning for the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin
12 February 2019
National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)Drought Early Warning for the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin
12 February 2019
If you are new to the webinar:• Join from PC, Mac, Linux, iOS, or Android:https://auburn.zoom.us/j/3348441163
• Join by telephone:1. Dial – 1 646 876 9923 OR
1 669 900 68332. Enter Meeting Code – 334 844 1163
*Please put your phone/microphone on mute to avoid audio interference
*We welcome comments, questions, and discussion at the end of the webinar
What’s Ahead
Welcome• Rachel McGuire - Auburn University Water Resources Center
Speakers
» David Zierden - Florida Climate Center; FSU» Paul Ankcorn - USGS» Todd Hamill - SERFC
» Cynthia Donald - USACE
Discussion
Current Drought Status, Seasonal Forecasts and
Outlooks
David Zierden
Winter (Dec. – Feb. 11) Precipitation
Rankings Amounts
CPC Winter Forecast
Rainfall – Last 90 days
Comparing Winter Outlooks2018 2015
Stronger El Nino does not necessarily mean more rain, just greater confidence in the forecast.
Current Drought Status
7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Current Sea Surface Temperatures
• Nino 3.4 below 0.5C for the last several weeks
Is El Nino Dying?
Nino 3.4 Forecast
NOAA Seasonal Outlook (Feb. – Apr.)
Typical El Nino Rainfall
March May
Take Home Messages• 2018 was an exceptionally wet year, particularly for the Eastern U.S.
• Most stations in the ACF basin ranking in the top 5 or top 10 for the winter-to-date
• Entire ACF basin is currently drought-free
• Rainfall above normal at all time scales
• 7-day forecast indicates more widespread rain over the Mississippi/Ohio river valleys, lesser amounts in the middle and lower ACF
• Weak El Nino conditions persist, 75% chance they continue through March
• CPC seasonal forecast (Jan. – Mar.) favors equal chances for temperature, higher chances for above normal rainfall
• Weaker El Nino does not necessarily mean less rain, just less confidence in the forecast
Streamflows and Groundwater
Paul Ankcorn
Real-time Stream Flow Compared with Historical Monthly Averages
Current:»
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov
Previous Brief:
Below Normal 7-day Average Streamflows
Below normal 7-day average streamflow as compared with
historical streamflow for day shown
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov
Current:
Previous Brief:
Lake Lanier Inflows
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov
Chattahoochee River near Cornelia (02331600)
Chestatee River near Dahlonega (02333500)
28-day Average Streamflow
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov
Chattahoochee at Atlanta (02336000)
Chattahoochee near Whitesburg (02338000)
28-day Average Streamflow
Chattahoochee at West Point (02339500)
Chattahoochee at Columbus (02341460)
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov
28-day Average Streamflow
Flint River near Griffin (02344500)
Flint River near Carsonville (02347500)
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov
28-day Average Streamflow
Flint River at Albany (02352500)
Flint River at Bainbridge (02356000)
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov
28-day Average Streamflow
» Apalachicola River at Chattahoochee (02358000)
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov
Real-time Groundwater Conditions
http://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov
Previous Brief Current Brief
Groundwater Status – Miller County 08G001
(Upper Floridan Aquifer)
Groundwater Status – Dougherty County 11K003
(Upper Floridan Aquifer)
Summary
• Real-time streamflows in the ACF basin are currently in the much below normal to high range.
• 28-day average streamflow at Chattahoochee River at Cornelia, and Chestatee River at Dahlonega are currently in the above normal range.
• 28-day average streamflow for the Chattahoochee River below Lake Lanier are currently in above normal to much above normal range.
• 28-day average streamflow for the Flint River are currently in above normal range.
• Groundwater levels range from much below normal to high across the ACF Basin.
Streamflow Forecasts
Todd Hamill
Summary
• 1 Month Streamflow forecast - Above Normal
• 3 Month Streamflow forecast – Above Normal
• Pie Charts do not directly include any adjustments to the ESP forecast based on ENSO, CPC or other. Based on soil conditions relative to normal in concert with historical precipitation.
USACE – ACF Reservoir Conditions
Cynthia Donald
BUILDING STRONG®
BUILDING STRONG®
BUILDING STRONG®
BUILDING STRONG®
BUILDING STRONG®
BUILDING STRONG®
Summary
• All projects are currently above guide curve.
• Evacuating the flood pool at each project to prepare for the next event.
• The ACF system conservation storage is in Zone 1 and expected to remain in Zone 1 over the next few weeks.
Questions or Comments?
Acknowledgements
Speakers» David Zierden, FSU» Paul Ankcorn, USGS» Todd Hamill, SERFC» Cynthia Donald, USACE
Moderator» Rachel McGuire, AUWRC
Additional Information» General Drought Information
• www.drought.gov• www.drought.unl.edu
» General Climate and El Nino Information• www.agroclimate.org/climate/
» Streamflow Monitoring and Forecasting• www.waterwatch.usgs.gov• www.srh.noaa.gov/serfc/
» Groundwater Monitoring• www.groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov
Thank YouRachel McGuire334 844 [email protected]/wrc
Next Briefing:
Tuesday, March 12, 2019 at 1:00 pm ET
Slides from this briefing will be posted at:
aaes.auburn.edu/wrc/extensionprograms/drought