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11NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM)
IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON MALAYSIA WATER RESOURCES
byby
Ir. Salmah Zakaria, PhDIr. Salmah Zakaria, PhDIr. Hj. Ahmad Jamalluddin ShaabanIr. Hj. Ahmad Jamalluddin Shaaban
21-22 June 200721-22 June 2007
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
198
4
1985
198
6
1987
198
8
1989
1990
199
1
1992
199
3
2041
204
2
2043
204
4
2045
2046
204
7
2048
204
9
2050
Year
Ann
ual P
reci
pita
tion
(m
m)
West Coarst Klang Selangor TerengganuKelantan Pahang Perack Kedah
Johor Southern Peninsula N.East Coast
Simulated Historical Period Simulated Future Period
22NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM)
THE NEED THE NEED GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL (GCM) GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL (GCM)
USEDUSED REGIONAL HYDROCLIMATE MODELREGIONAL HYDROCLIMATE MODEL ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE
OVER PENINSULAR MALAYSIAOVER PENINSULAR MALAYSIA CONCLUSIONCONCLUSION
OUTLINEOUTLINE
33NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM)
THE NEED THE NEED GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL (GCM) GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL (GCM)
USEDUSED REGIONAL HYDROCLIMATE MODELREGIONAL HYDROCLIMATE MODEL ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE
OVER PENINSULAR MALAYSIAOVER PENINSULAR MALAYSIA CONCLUSIONCONCLUSION
44NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM)
THE NEEDTHE NEED National Water Resources Study National Water Resources Study
(Peninsular Malaysia) Mac 2000(Peninsular Malaysia) Mac 2000
- - Master Plan for the Development of Water Master Plan for the Development of Water Resources in Peninsular Malaysia 2000-2050Resources in Peninsular Malaysia 2000-2050
- - Did not take into account potential change ofDid not take into account potential change of hydrologic regime and water resources due hydrologic regime and water resources due
to to climate changeclimate change Initial National Communication (2000)/ Initial National Communication (2000)/
National Communication 2 (2007-2009)National Communication 2 (2007-2009)
55NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM)
National Communication 2 (NC2)National Communication 2 (NC2)[2007-2009][2007-2009]
Preparation of NC2 - to further integrate climate Preparation of NC2 - to further integrate climate change issues and impacts into the national change issues and impacts into the national and local strategic and development plans. and local strategic and development plans.
3 Working Groups (WG) under NC2: 3 Working Groups (WG) under NC2: • WG 1 - Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) InventoryWG 1 - Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) Inventory• WG 2 - Vulnerability Assessment & Adaptation (V&A) WG 2 - Vulnerability Assessment & Adaptation (V&A) • WG 3 - MitigationWG 3 - Mitigation
66NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM)
WG2 V&A - chaired by NAHRIMWG2 V&A - chaired by NAHRIM• to undertake an assessment of potential impacts to undertake an assessment of potential impacts
of climate change on several vulnerable sectors of climate change on several vulnerable sectors • to formulate corresponding adaptation measuresto formulate corresponding adaptation measures
7 vulnerable sectors (and sub-committees):7 vulnerable sectors (and sub-committees):• Agriculture (MARDI)Agriculture (MARDI)• Forestry (FDPM)Forestry (FDPM)• Biodiversity (FRIM)Biodiversity (FRIM)• Water resources (NAHRIM)Water resources (NAHRIM)• Coastal and marine resources (DID)Coastal and marine resources (DID)• Public health (MOH)Public health (MOH)• Energy (PTM)Energy (PTM)
77NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM)
2 support groups under WG2:2 support groups under WG2:
• Climate Projections (NAHRIM) - looks at climate Climate Projections (NAHRIM) - looks at climate projections studies carried out in Malaysia, projections studies carried out in Malaysia, based on available climate models and data. based on available climate models and data.
• Socio-Economic Impacts and Responses Socio-Economic Impacts and Responses (LESTARI, UKM) - looks at socio-economic (LESTARI, UKM) - looks at socio-economic impact and responses from global warming impact and responses from global warming and climate changes as well as adaptation and climate changes as well as adaptation measures.measures.
88NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM)
Malaysia climate projections in the coming Malaysia climate projections in the coming years required in assessing vulnerability and years required in assessing vulnerability and adaptation for various sub sectors:adaptation for various sub sectors:
• NAHRIM, Malaysian Meteorological Department NAHRIM, Malaysian Meteorological Department (MMD) and UKM actively looking at climate change (MMD) and UKM actively looking at climate change projections in Malaysia. projections in Malaysia.
• RegHCM-PMRegHCM-PM - NAHRIM’s - NAHRIM’s Regional Hydro-climate Regional Hydro-climate Model of Peninsular MalaysiaModel of Peninsular Malaysia (completed in 2006) (completed in 2006) will be the current basis for identifying the will be the current basis for identifying the vulnerability and adaptation measures. vulnerability and adaptation measures.
• Similar study planned for East Malaysia (Sabah and Similar study planned for East Malaysia (Sabah and Sarawak) - begin at the end of June 2007. Sarawak) - begin at the end of June 2007.
99NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM)
1. To develop a regional hydrologic-atmospheric model of Peninsular Malaysia and validate the model by historic hydrologic-atmospheric data
2. To evaluate the impact of climate change on the hydrologic regime and water resources of Peninsular Malaysia by means of the developed regional hydrologic-atmospheric model
(RegHCM-PM)
Objective of Study
Phase 1 (Peninsular Malaysia)• Aug 2002 – Dec 2006Phase 2 (Sabah and Sarawak)• Jun 2007 –Dec 2009
Work Program
1010NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM)
THE NEEDTHE NEED GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL (GCM) GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL (GCM)
USEDUSED REGIONAL HYDROCLIMATE MODELREGIONAL HYDROCLIMATE MODEL ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE
OVER PENINSULAR MALAYSIAOVER PENINSULAR MALAYSIA CONCLUSIONCONCLUSION
1111NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM)
Summary of transient coupled GCM experiment results for climate change assessment
GCM Reference Flux Scenario Warming EquilibriumName Adjusted? At Doubling Warming CGCM1(CANADA) Boer et al. 2000 Yes IS92a 1.7o 3.5o
CSIRO(AUSTRALIA) Gordon & O’Farrell,1996 Yes 1%/year 2.0o 4.3o
GFDL(USA) Manabe et al. 1992 Yes 1%/year 2.2o 3.7o
GIS(USA) Russell et al. 1995 No 1%/year 1.4o __
MPI(Germany) Hasselmann et al. 1995 Yes IS92a __ 2.6o
MRI(JAPAN) Tokioka et al. 1995 Yes 1%/year 1.6o __ NCAR/CCSM(USA) Washington & Meehl,1996 No 1%/year 3.8o 4.6o
HadCM2(UK) Johns et al. 1997 Yes IS92a __ 2.5o
GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL USED
1212NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM)
CGCM1 simulated monthly precipitation over the region that encompasses Peninsular Malaysia during 2049. Letters indicate the locations of the CGCM1 grids.
1313NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM)
THE NEED THE NEED GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL (GCM) GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL (GCM)
USEDUSED REGIONAL HYDROCLIMATE MODELREGIONAL HYDROCLIMATE MODEL ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE
OVER PENINSULAR MALAYSIAOVER PENINSULAR MALAYSIA CONCLUSIONCONCLUSION
1414NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM)
A regional hydrologic-atmospheric model of Peninsular Malaysia called as ‘Regional Hydroclimate Model of Peninsular Malaysia (RegHCM-PM)’ was developed
To downscale the global climate change simulation data (Canadian GCM1 current and future climate data) that are at very coarse resolution (~ 410km), to Peninsular Malaysia at fine spatial resolution (~9km).
To be able to quantify the impact of the complex topographical and land surface features of Peninsular Malaysia on its climate conditions.
REGIONAL HYDROCLIMATE REGIONAL HYDROCLIMATE MODELMODEL
1515NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM)
Global Scale Atmospheric
& Ocean Data
CGCM, NCEP
Topography &
Landcover (USGS)
Soil ( FAO)
Boundary Condition
s I nitial Fields
MM5 Model Outer
Domain
Boundary Conditions
Initial Fields
MM5 Model
2nd Domain
Boundary Conditions
Initial Fields
MM5 Model Inner
Domain
Watershed Scale Hydro-climate
Output
IRSHAM Model
Domain
Topography, Landcover
& Soil
(NAHRIM)
Model Nesting
Regional Scale Model ConfigurationRegional Scale Model ConfigurationCGCM1 MESOSCALE MODEL (MM5)
Regional HCM-PM
1616NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM)
Data grid of CGCM1 that were used in the RegHCM-PM. Data grid of CGCM1 that were used in the RegHCM-PM. The ocean grids which are used in the RegHCM-PM are The ocean grids which are used in the RegHCM-PM are
shown as blue. The land grids which are used in the shown as blue. The land grids which are used in the RegHCM-PM are shown as green.RegHCM-PM are shown as green.
1717NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM)
The grid layout for the outer domain (1The grid layout for the outer domain (1stst Domain, 26x28 Domain, 26x28 grids, 81 km resolution) of the RegHCM-PM under grids, 81 km resolution) of the RegHCM-PM under
Mercator projection. Mercator projection.
1818NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM)
1919NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM)
Selected subregions in Peninsular Malaysia for Selected subregions in Peninsular Malaysia for hydroclimate comparisons between the RegHCM-hydroclimate comparisons between the RegHCM-
PM modeled values and observationsPM modeled values and observations
2020NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM)
The Map in the left shows the rain gages that were used in the The Map in the left shows the rain gages that were used in the validation, and the map on the right shown the locations of validation, and the map on the right shown the locations of
weather station at which the temperature data were used for weather station at which the temperature data were used for validationvalidation
2121NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM)
Locations of the selected stream Locations of the selected stream gauging stations and watershedsgauging stations and watersheds
2222NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM)
Validation of Simulated Precipitation with Observed Precipitation
2323NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM)
Validation of Simulated Streamflow with Observed Streamflow
2424NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM)
Validation of Simulated Streamflow with Observed Streamflow
2525NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM)
THE NEED THE NEED GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL (GCM) GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL (GCM)
USEDUSED REGIONAL HYDROCLIMATE MODELREGIONAL HYDROCLIMATE MODEL ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE
OVER PENINSULAR MALAYSIAOVER PENINSULAR MALAYSIA CONCLUSIONCONCLUSION
2626NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM)
RainfallRainfall
In annual rainfall:In annual rainfall:• dry years (1993, and 2044) dry years (1993, and 2044) • wet years (1989, 2043, and 2049)wet years (1989, 2043, and 2049)
A substantial A substantial increaseincrease in mean monthly in mean monthly rainfall over therainfall over the North East Coastal region North East Coastal region and overand over Kelantan Kelantan..
A A decreasedecrease in mean monthly rainfall over in mean monthly rainfall over Selangor and JohorSelangor and Johor..
2727NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM)
Higher maximum and lower Higher maximum and lower minimum rainfall are observed in the minimum rainfall are observed in the future in many sub regionsfuture in many sub regions
More extreme hydrological conditions More extreme hydrological conditions may be expected.may be expected.
2828NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM)
Simulated annual rainfall (historical and future period) at sub regions of Peninsular Malaysia
2929NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM)
Simulated annual rainfall (historical and future period) at sub regions of Peninsular Malaysia
3030NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM)
Region NameRegion Name Maximum monthly Maximum monthly precipitation (mm)precipitation (mm)
Mean monthly Mean monthly precipitation (mm)precipitation (mm)
Minimum monthly Minimum monthly precipitation (mm)precipitation (mm)
HistoricalHistorical FutureFuture HistoricalHistorical FutureFuture HistoricalHistorical FutureFuture
West CoastWest Coast 600600 560560 179179 176176 12.412.4 7.97.9
KlangKlang 436436 601601 190190 182182 12.812.8 5.95.9
SelangorSelangor 564564 526526 190190 181181 12.212.2 8.38.3
TerengganuTerengganu 12711271 19141914 289289 299299 33.633.6 14.014.0
KelantanKelantan 930930 11291129 222222 240240 15.415.4 10.910.9
PahangPahang 634634 685685 199199 208208 24.524.5 16.616.6
PerakPerak 723723 768768 193193 199199 9.09.0 4.14.1
KedahKedah 627627 705705 174174 177177 2.12.1 1.11.1
JohorJohor 592592 538538 187187 180180 13.313.3 5.25.2
Southern PeninsulaSouthern Peninsula 544544 609609 194194 196196 18.918.9 14.414.4
N. East CoastN. East Coast 14411441 15731573 260260 282282 19.519.5 9.99.9
Summary of simulated monthly rainfall during the historical and future Summary of simulated monthly rainfall during the historical and future periods at the selected watersheds of Peninsular Malaysiaperiods at the selected watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia
3131NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM)
Wet Year1989 2043
3232NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM)
Dry Year1993 2044
3333NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM)
River FlowRiver Flow
Mean monthly flows - stay about the same Mean monthly flows - stay about the same in most watersheds except in in most watersheds except in Kelantan Kelantan and Pahang where it increasesand Pahang where it increases and and Selangor and Johor where it decreasesSelangor and Johor where it decreases. .
Hydrological extremes will be magnified Hydrological extremes will be magnified significantly in Kelantan, Terengganu and significantly in Kelantan, Terengganu and Pahang watersheds.Pahang watersheds.
3434NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM)
Future monthly flows - lower and the Future monthly flows - lower and the maximum monthly flows will be maximum monthly flows will be significantly higher than their historical significantly higher than their historical counterparts in these watersheds. counterparts in these watersheds.
An increase in inter-annual and intra-An increase in inter-annual and intra-seasonal variability with seasonal variability with increased increased hydrologic extremeshydrologic extremes (higher high flows, (higher high flows, and lower low flows) in and lower low flows) in Kelantan, Pahang, Kelantan, Pahang, Terengganu and KedahTerengganu and Kedah watersheds. watersheds.
3535NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM)
Periodic means and standard deviations of simulated monthly flows during thehistorical (1984-1993) and future (2025-2034 and 2041-2050) periods at
Jambatan. Jerangau, Dungun, Terengganu (region no. 4)
3636NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM)
Periodic means and standard deviations of simulated monthly flows during the historical (1984-1993) and future (2025-2034 and 2041-2050) periods at
Temerloh, Pahang (region no. 6).
3737NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM)
Periodic means and standard deviations of simulated monthly flows during thehistorical (1984-1993) and future (2025-2034 and 2041-2050) periods at Rantau
Panjang, Johor (region no. 9).
3838NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM)
Periodic means and standard deviations of simulated monthly flows during thehistorical (1984-1993) and future (2025-2034 and 2041-2050) periods at Rantau
Panjang, Selangor (region no. 3).
3939NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM)
Periodic means and standard deviations of simulated monthly flows during the historical (1984-1993) and future (2025-2034 and 2041-2050) periods at
Jambatan. Syed Omar, Muda, Kedah (region no. 8)
4040NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM)
Periodic means and standard deviations of simulated monthly flows during the historical (1984-1993) and future (2025-2034 and 2041-2050) periods at
Jambatan. Iskandar, Perak (region no. 7)
4141NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM)
Region NameRegion Name Maximum Monthly Maximum Monthly Flow (cms)Flow (cms)
Mean Monthly Flows Mean Monthly Flows (cms)(cms)
Minimum Monthly Flow Minimum Monthly Flow (cms)(cms)
HistoricalHistorical FutureFuture HistoricalHistorical FutureFuture HistoricalHistorical FutureFuture
KlangKlang 31.231.2 45.845.8 14.414.4 13.313.3 2.62.6 3.53.5
Selangor Selangor 108108 109109 40.740.7 37.537.5 7.17.1 0.50.5
TerengganuTerengganu 398398 570570 93.493.4 98.398.3 13.113.1 10.810.8
KelantanKelantan 15351535 19511951 536536 602602 158158 126126
PahangPahang 16971697 21772177 667667 718718 156156 123123
PerakPerak 524524 578578 286286 300300 184184 139139
KedahKedah 307307 340340 106106 104104 25.325.3 5.35.3
JohorJohor 82.782.7 94.094.0 32.732.7 31.831.8 9.89.8 6.86.8
Summary of simulated flows during the historical and future Summary of simulated flows during the historical and future periods at the selected watersheds of Peninsular Malaysiaperiods at the selected watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia
4242NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM)
THE NEED THE NEED GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL (GCM) GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL (GCM)
USEDUSED REGIONAL HYDROCLIMATE MODELREGIONAL HYDROCLIMATE MODEL ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE
OVER PENINSULAR MALAYSIAOVER PENINSULAR MALAYSIA CONCLUSIONCONCLUSION
4343NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM)
Climate Change projection have to be studied Climate Change projection have to be studied further and translated into how it will impact the further and translated into how it will impact the social and economic sectors (agriculture, forestry, social and economic sectors (agriculture, forestry, bio-diversity, coastal resources, water resources, bio-diversity, coastal resources, water resources, public health & energy) of Malaysiapublic health & energy) of Malaysia
Expected changes in water availability by year Expected changes in water availability by year 2050 require a review of current water resources 2050 require a review of current water resources plans in the various sub-sectors and states of plans in the various sub-sectors and states of Peninsular MalaysiaPeninsular Malaysia
Studies at selected river basins on performance Studies at selected river basins on performance of water supply systems and irrigation systems of water supply systems and irrigation systems under future water demands and hydrologic under future water demands and hydrologic regimeregime
ConclusionsConclusions
4444NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM)
Further downscaling studies using other Further downscaling studies using other GCM’s (ECHAM5- MPI Germany, MRI-GCM’s (ECHAM5- MPI Germany, MRI-CGCM2.3.2- MRI Japan, CM2.1-GFDL USA, CGCM2.3.2- MRI Japan, CM2.1-GFDL USA, CGCM3.1- Canada)CGCM3.1- Canada)
Further research on the future hydrologic Further research on the future hydrologic regime (rainfall/streamflow characteristics regime (rainfall/streamflow characteristics at finer temporal and spatial timescales)at finer temporal and spatial timescales)