National Hurricane Center The Road Ahead Bill Read, Director
National Hurricane Center
Slide 2
Drivers Decision support concept of operations Storm Surge Road
Map Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project AWIPS 2 transition
Communication landscape Coastal development (land use policy)
Hurricane resistant building (or not) Evacuation philosophy(ies)
2
Slide 3
HLT FEMA NRCC National Hurricane Center @ the Tropical
Prediction Center HLT Decision Support: Hurricane Liaison Team
Communication Flowchart FEMA RRCC State EOCs Local EOCs Local
NWSFOs Hurricane Hotline DHS NOC
Slide 4
Provide an avenue for the rapid exchange of communication with
the National Hurricane Center Provide information as a key decision
tool for evacuation decision making to save lives Aid in providing
information for response resource allocations Decision Support:
Hurricane Liaison Team Looking forward: review, revise, improve
Video Teleconfernece during Hurricane Rita. President Bush,
Governor Blanco and Mayor Nagin are being briefed by DHS, FEMA and
the NHC.
Slide 5
Decision Support: Collaboration WFO-NHC Philosophy for
collaboration (Ours rather than mine or yours) Tools for
collaboration AWIPS 2 or ??? Service goal improved decision support
Forecaster exchange program increase mutual understanding Course
for WFOs 5
Slide 6
Keys to advances in the next decade Funded operationally
oriented research Continued improvement in computing power
Operational models deliver on results of research Funded
operationally oriented research Continued improvement in computing
power Operational models deliver on results of research 6
Slide 7
Frank Marks NOAA HFIP Lead Director, NOAA/AOML Hurricane
Research Division 22 September 2009 Frank Marks NOAA HFIP Lead
Director, NOAA/AOML Hurricane Research Division 22 September 2009
NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project
Slide 8
National Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project Meeting the
Nations Needs 8 National Hurricane Forecast System - 2020 Goals
Improve Forecast Accuracy Hurricane impact areas (track) 50% in 10
years Severity (intensity) 50% in 10 years Storm surge impact
locations and severity Extend forecast reliability out to 7 days
Quantify, bound and reduce forecast uncertainty to enable risk
management decisions
Slide 9
Track improvement trend and HFIP Goals Limit to predictability
?
Slide 10
Ike example with current and future cone (HFIP Goal) Red dot is
landfall - Same relative error to cone note much smaller threat
area...
Slide 11
Intensity Goals for HFIP much more of a challenge than
Track
Slide 12
Rapid intensity change Current models have little or no
skill
Slide 13
Experimental Rapid Intensification
Slide 14
AWIPS 2 short term drag on improvements A long time coming Hard
to change
Slide 15
Communications Landscape Expanding media (how to keep up with)
Graphical/text mix Serious media social media - how best to use
Content 15
Slide 16
Products. 16 Plus one more page Plus 8 more pages
Slide 17
or information? 17
Slide 18
Land Use Policy 100 year flood plain We will rebuild and better
Chamber of Commerce mentality toward mitigation Growth into risk
areas along the coast unabated
Slide 19
The 100 Year Flood Plain 10 year 25 year 50 year 100 year 500 1
yr 10%4%2% 1%.2% 1065341810 2088563318 30 967145 26 6
5099876439
Slide 20
I was told I wasnt in a flood plain Atlanta, 2009
Slide 21
Tropical Storm Allison Most flooded property outside the 100
year buyouts Most of 100,000 cars were parked streets are floodways
Medical center flooded 1976 and most hospitals mitigated to the 100
year event 2.5B in damage due to Allison Deaths - all either drove
or walked into flood water well after warnings issued
Slide 22
Storm Surge we will be back But should we???
Slide 23
What we must do this next decade Require Flood Insurance for
all in identified surge risk area recruit the mortgage industry
(Like they do for Fire) Advocate a land use policy prohibiting
critical care institutions like nursing homes from being built in
surge zones
Slide 24
We will rebuild and build better Biloxi New Orleans Galveston
--- every time a hurricane disaster occurred the city leaders have
stated their city would rise from the debris. However the rebuilds
havent been that much better maybe even worse today as much more
expensive stuff going up right on the waters edge (or in NOLA case,
below) Building codes in most states only minimally increases
resilience of homes and businesses (if followed)
Slide 25
Chamber of Commerce we dont want to scare away potential
residents or businesses people will not pay the higher price for
code built homes Biloxi example (casino set back, innovative pole
markers) Galveston County example (flood stakes at low water
crossing, surge markers)
Slide 26
What we must do this next decade Make allies of the Chambers of
Commerce!
Slide 27
Evacuation challenges Post Katrina 120 hour timelines FEMA
Administrator, some state directors pushing to re think with goal
of shortening timelines Factors other than safety of life come into
play ($$$, perception of lost tourism) Decisions are made on
uncertainty, regardless of whether or not the decider knows it
27
Slide 28
Evacuation philosophy??? Everyone leaves even if they dont
really have to
Slide 29
Evacuation Philosophy? Less than 10% evacuate even when told
to!
Slide 30
The Road ahead.
Slide 31
If you do not change your direction, you will end up exactly
where you are headed Ancient Chinese proverb