29 March 2018

National Climate and

Water Briefing

Photo: James Walker, Longreach, Qld

Welcome

Peter GoodayABARES

Photo: James Walker, Longreach, Qld

Welcome

Peter GoodayABARES

Photo: James Walker, Longreach, Qld

Climate and water

conditions and outlook

Joel LisonbeeBureau of Meteorology, Agriculture Program

Photo: James Walker, Longreach, Qld

Recent conditions

• Recent conditions

• Evolution of climate drivers

• Seasonal outlook

March temperatures

Maximum

temperature

Minimum

temperature

As at 28 March 2018

Rainfall

January February March

Lowest

on

record

Very

much

below

average

Below

Average

Average Above

Average

Very

much

above

average

Highest

on

record

As at 28 March 2018

Rainfall: March 2018

Effective rainfallRainfall deciles

As at 28 March 2018

March rainfall: Queensland and Northern Territory

Lowest on

record

Very much

below

average

Below

Average

Average Above

Average

Very much

above

average

Highest on

record

As at 27 March 2018

• Queensland rainfall 1–8 March

• Northern Territory rainfall 8–10 March

• Tropical cyclone Marcus 15–22 March

• Tropical cyclone Nora 19–26 March

• 593 mm in 24 hours at Port Douglas 26 March

• Queensland, highest March rainfall since 2012

Rainfall

Wind analysis, 27 March 2018

Tropical

cyclone

NoraTropical

cyclone

Marcus

March rainfall: Queensland and Northern Territory

0

mm

1

mm

5

mm

10

mm

25

mm

50

mm

100

mm

200

mm

300

mm

400

mm

600

mm

800

mm

Rainfall data as at 27 March 2018; water storage data as at 22 March

Ross River Dam

93% full (28 March 2018)

www.townsville.qld.gov.au/water-waste-and-environment/

Total rainfall

Feb APR Jun Aug Oct Dec

%

2016

2017

2018100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Fires and rapid drying

Lowest

on

record

Very

much

below

average

Below

Average

Average Above

Average

Very

much

above

average

Highest

on

record

As at 28 March 2018

Rainfall Rainfall totals 1–28 March % of

monthly

mean

Hay, NSW 1.6 mm 5 %

Mildura, Vic 2.2 mm 11 %

Dubbo, NSW 4 mm 7 %

Deniliquin, NSW 4.1 mm 13%

Canberra Airport 7.2 mm 11 %

Forbes, NSW 7.6 mm 14 %

At least 2 major late-season fires

• Tathra, New South Wales

• Southwestern Victoria

Fires and rapid drying

Lowest

on

record

Very

much

below

average

Below

Average

Average Above

Average

Very

much

above

average

Highest

on

record

Rainfall data as at 28 March 2018 Storage data as at 22 March 2018

Rainfall

Lower-layer soil moisture (10–100cm)

1-month change:

February–March 2018

1–28 March: lower-layer soil moisture

3-month change:

December 2017 – March 2018

Water storage levels

As at 22 March 2018

Diversity in water supply

Urban water supply (ML) by source, 2012–2017

• Recently released:

• National Water Account 2016–17

urban regions

• National performance report

2016–17: urban water utilities

• In Perth, desalinated water provided

more than half of the urban water

supply

• Water Corporation WA 'banked' some

water in surface water storages in Perth

region to meet future demand

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

Pe

rth

an

nu

al ra

infa

ll (m

m)

Annual Linear (Annual)

This demonstrates the value of water

information in planning

Critical water supply situation in Cape Town

Critical water supply situation in Cape Town

Source: NASA

earthobservatory.nasa.gov

Water level (% capacity)

Evolution of

climate drivers

• Recent conditions

• Evolution of climate drivers

• Seasonal outlook

El Niño–Southern Oscillation

La Niña (Australian Criteria)

• Any three of the following:

• Sea surface

temperature < –0.8 ºC

• Stronger trade winds

• SOI is +7 or higher

• A majority of climate

models show below

average temperatures

in NINO3 or NINO3.4

regions

NINO3.4

NINO3

–0.8 ºC or cooler in the

NINO3 or NINO3.4 region

of the Pacific Ocean

Trade winds have

been stronger than

average for any three

of the last four months

L H

The three-month average

SOI is +7 or higher

El Niño–Southern Oscillation

La Niña (Australian Criteria)

• Any three of the following:

• Sea surface

temperature < –0.8 ºC

• Stronger trade winds

• SOI is +7 or higher

• A majority of climate

models show below

average temperatures

in NINO3 or NINO3.4

regions -1.2

-1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

8-Oct-17 8-Nov-17 8-Dec-17 8-Jan-18 8-Feb-18 8-Mar-18

Deg C

Pacific Ocean temperature anomalies

NINO3.4 NINO3

El Niño–Southern Oscillation

La Niña (Australian Criteria)

• Any three of the following:

• Sea surface

temperature < –0.8 ºC

• Stronger trade winds

• SOI is +7 or higher

• A majority of climate

models show below

average temperatures

in NINO3 or NINO3.4

regions

Stronger trade winds Weaker trade winds

El Niño–Southern Oscillation

La Niña (Australian Criteria)

• Any three of the following:

• Sea surface

temperature < –0.8 ºC

• Stronger trade winds

• SOI is +7 or higher

• A majority of climate

models show below

average temperatures

in NINO3 or NINO3.4

regions

La Niña (Australian Criteria)

• Any three of the following:

• Sea surface

temperature < –0.8 ºC

• Stronger trade winds

• SOI is +7 or higher

• A majority of climate

models show below

average temperatures

in NINO3 or NINO3.4

regions-2

-1.6

-1.2

-0.8

-0.4

0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2

observed BOM Canada ECMWF Japan

Meteofrance NASA NOAA UKMO

El Niño–Southern Oscillation outlook: March 2018

OISSTv2 (1981-2010)

NINO3.4 outlook

NIN

O3

.4 (

°C)

La Niña

El NiñoNow

Seasonal outlook

• Recent conditions

• Evolution of climate drivers

• Seasonal outlook

Rainfall outlook: April–June 2018

Chance of exceeding median rainfall

May

AprilPast accuracy

Past accuracy Past accuracy

Maximum temperature outlook: April–June 2018

Chance of exceeding median maximum

temperature

Past accuracy

Past accuracy

Past accuracy

April

May

Minimum temperature outlook: April–June 2018

Chance of exceeding median minimum

temperature

AprilPast accuracy

Past accuracy Past accuracy

May

Observed streamflow: February 2018

TasmaniaSouth East Coast

(Vic)

South East Coast

(NSW)

Murray–Darling

Basin

North East Coast

South West Coast

Australia

Seasonal streamflow outlook: March–May 2018

South West Coast

South East Coast

(NSW)

Murray–Darling

Basin

Australia

TasmaniaSouth East Coast

(Vic)

North East Coast

Summary

• Climate drivers are neutral

• March rainfall

– Above average for Queensland and Tasmania

– Average to below average elsewhere

– Rapid drying in southeast

• Outlook favours cooler temperatures in the northeast

• Low and near-median streamflows likely for March to May

Introduction to Meteorology

Course

Meteorology Trainer and Course Manager

Philip Perkins

i2m@bom.gov.au

• Learn about weather and climate• 23 two-day courses around Australia

in 2018

• Canberra courses at the Bureau's

office (Treasury Building, Parkes)• 10-11 April

• 25-26 September

• Courses for agencies can be arranged

• Introduction to Climate course

coming

Thank you

Questions?Joel Lisonbee, Bureau of Meteorology

Tropical cyclone Marcus, March 21, 2018

Image: NASA

Agricultural commodity update /climate variability and forecasting

Andrew CameronAgricultural commodities section

Australian Bureau of Agriculturaland Resource Economics and Sciences

6 - 7 March 2018

Research by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences

March 2018

Snapshot

Context of Australian agricultureWe manage highly variable climate, with low producer support

Source: The World Bank Group – Climate Change Knowledge Portal

Note: Departure from mean rainfall measured as a probability density function, which shows the spread of possible values around the mean.

Rainfall variability index Departure from mean rainfall (%), 1970-2015

Climate variability and change is projected to accelerate and intensify, presenting threats and opportunities

Climate adjusted productivity for cropping farms(Index, where average of 1977 to 1982 = 100)Source: ABARES

Variability of world production

Mt

Source: Agricultural Commodity Statistics

Australian wheat yields

s ABARES estimate.

2006-072002-03

2016-17

2017-18s

2006-07

2002-03

2016-

17

Variability of Australian wheat yields

Climate variability makes production forecasting hard

Western Australia’s south central rainfall zone, cropping season rainfall

Outlook for Agricultural commodities

Value of agricultural production to increase a little

+$1.7b

$1.7b

…driven by a return to ‘average’ crop production

$bn

Chickpea prices linked to India’s import demand

$1.1b

Export growth to follow production

$bn

Crops

Source: agriculturewire.com

f ABARES forecast. z ABARES projection

World grain prices

World climate conditions have been mixed

Source: Agricultural Market Information System (March 2018)

Summer crop production limited

Lowest on record

10 to 20%

30 to 40%

50 to 60%

70 to 80%

90 to 100%

Forecast median shire yield

ranked relative to all years

Livestock

(and products)

Source: ABC

$1.1b

Value of livestock production

$mOther

livestoc

k and

product

s

$780m

%

5

10

15

20

25

<16.5 18.6-19.5 21.6-22.5

24.6-26.5 30.6+

Australia’s shifting wool production

1991–92

1996–97

2001 –02

2006–07

2011–12

2016–17

finer microns coarser

Beef prices expected to fall

agriculture.gov.au/abares/research-topics/agricultural-commodities

Source: Bureau of Meteorology

Next briefing

Thursday, 26 April 2018