Upload
scott-deaton
View
219
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
8/8/2019 NAR Market Facts September 2010
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/nar-market-facts-september-2010 1/13
Market Facts
in Uncertain Times
NAR Research
September 2010
8/8/2019 NAR Market Facts September 2010
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/nar-market-facts-september-2010 2/13
Economic and Market Facts
• Informed consumers make smarter decisions.
• The economy is soft and consumer confidence remains low.• Housing affordability is at a generational high.
• Home values in many markets have returned to historically justifiabl
• Most economists expect home values to rise in upcoming years, thofast pace.
• Bad loans are nearly always made in good times. But recently originperforming very well.
• Patient homeowners over the long-term do much better than renter wealth.
8/8/2019 NAR Market Facts September 2010
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/nar-market-facts-september-2010 3/13
Fact 1: The Economy is Growing, though S
GDP annualized % growth rate
8/8/2019 NAR Market Facts September 2010
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/nar-market-facts-september-2010 4/13
Fact 2: The Private Sector is Finally Crea
Some Jobs(Government jobs were not included since many could be temporary from stimulus
Monthly Net Private Payroll Job Changes in Thousands
8/8/2019 NAR Market Facts September 2010
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/nar-market-facts-september-2010 5/13
Fact 3: Consumer Confidence Remains
though Clearly Off Bottom
Index by The Conference Board
8/8/2019 NAR Market Facts September 2010
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/nar-market-facts-september-2010 6/13
Fact 4: The 30-year Mortgage Rate
is at Generational Lows(A very accommodative Federal Reserve monetary policy helping, but for how l
8/8/2019 NAR Market Facts September 2010
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/nar-market-facts-september-2010 7/13
Fact 5: National Median Home Price Stab(Combination of price change and type of homes that are selling)
8/8/2019 NAR Market Facts September 2010
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/nar-market-facts-september-2010 8/13
Fact 6: Other Home Price Measuremen
Also Showing Price Stabilization
8/8/2019 NAR Market Facts September 2010
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/nar-market-facts-september-2010 9/13
Fact 7: Home Price-to-Income Ratio
Have Returned to Fundamentally Justifiable
Source: NAR
2.02.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
8/8/2019 NAR Market Facts September 2010
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/nar-market-facts-september-2010 10/13
Fact 8: Economists Expect Price Increas
Upcoming Years
• Macromarkets, a firm associated with Professor Robert Shiller, suabout 100 economists on their outlook on home prices.
• The consensus forecast as of August 2010 (which can be found aMacromarkets or via news media stories such as the Wall Street Jas follows:
• 0.78% price increase in 2011
• 2.43% price increase in 2012
• 3.20% price increase in 2013
• 3.69% price increase in 2014
• No forecast for 2015 and beyond
8/8/2019 NAR Market Facts September 2010
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/nar-market-facts-september-2010 11/13
Fact 9: Delinquencies Are High but Recent
Originations Performing Well
• Due to Past Lending Mistakes the Bad Loans are still working through th
• Banker’s Afterthought is nearly always that “Bad Loans are made in Bub Times.”
• However, the Mortgage Delinquency Rate may have peaked. AccordingMortgage Bankers Association, mortgage delinquencies fell to 9.85 percesecond quarter 2010 from 10.1 percent in the first quarter.
• Various reports suggest good loan performance on recently originated m
(see government reports on loan performance of government backed mo
• One-third of homeowners own their homes free-and-clear. They are noin mortgage delinquency statistics.
• Loan approval is more difficult, which explains better recent loan perform There is a better approval chance if the borrower stays well within
their budget.
8/8/2019 NAR Market Facts September 2010
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/nar-market-facts-september-2010 12/13
Source:: Federal Reserve
Median Family Net
Worth
Fact 10: Long-Term Path to Self Reliance may
from Long-Term Housing Wealth Gain(2010 data to be published in 2012 by the Federal Reserve)
Renters Homeowners
8/8/2019 NAR Market Facts September 2010
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/nar-market-facts-september-2010 13/13
Reprint Guidelines
•NAR members are permitted to reprint this presentation — in hard copy or ona Web site or other electronic communication.
•Content must be reproduced in full. Please include the following attribution:
“Copyright National Association of REALTORS®. Reprinted with
Permission.”
•If you choose to link from your Web site or blog to items on REALTOR.org,
you do not need permission, provided you are not reprinting material. Pleasenote for your visitors that the link goes to the Web site of the National
Association of REALTORS®. You also may want to have the link open in a
new browser window so visitors don’t navigate away from your site.
•For additional information, visit realtor.org/home/reprint_guidelines or
contact Kelly Killian, manager of editorial development for REALTOR.org, at
312/329-8572, or send an e-mail to [email protected]