Nahar Spinning Mills Ltd · Nahar Spinning Mills Ltd’s (Nahar’s) Q1FY12 earnings were significantly lower than CRISIL Research’s expectations. However, revenues were in line

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Enhancing investment decisions

Q1FY12 Result Update

Nahar Spinning Mills Ltd


Explanation of CRISIL Fundamental and Valuation (CFV) matrix

The CFV Matrix (CRISIL Fundamental and Valuation Matrix) addresses the two important analysis of an investment making process –

Analysis of Fundamentals (addressed through Fundamental Grade) and Analysis of Returns (Valuation Grade) The fundamental

grade is assigned on a five-point scale from grade 5 (indicating Excellent fundamentals) to grade 1 (Poor fundamentals) The

valuation grade is assigned on a five-point scale from grade 5 (indicating strong upside from the current market price (CMP)) to

grade 1 (strong downside from the CMP).

CRISIL Fundamental Grade

Assessment CRISIL Valuation Grade

Assessment

5/5 Excellent fundamentals 5/5 Strong upside (>25% from CMP)

4/5 Superior fundamentals 4/5 Upside (10-25% from CMP)

3/5 Good fundamentals 3/5 Align (+-10% from CMP)

2/5 Moderate fundamentals 2/5 Downside (- 10-25% from CMP)

1/5 Poor fundamentals 1/5 Strong downside (<-25% from CMP)

Analyst Disclosure

Each member of the team involved in the preparation of the grading report, hereby affirms that there exists no conflict of interest

that can bias the grading recommendation of the company. Additional Disclosure

This report has been sponsored by NSE - Investor Protection Fund Trust (NSEIPFT). Disclaimer:

This Exchange-commissioned Report (Report) is based on data publicly available or from sources considered reliable by CRISIL

(Data). However, CRISIL does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of the Data / Report and is not responsible for

any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of Data / Report. The Data / Report are subject to change without

any prior notice. Opinions expressed herein are our current opinions as on the date of this Report. Nothing in this Report constitutes

investment, legal, accounting or tax advice or any solicitation, whatsoever. The Report is not a recommendation to buy / sell or hold

any securities of the Company. CRISIL especially states that it has no financial liability, whatsoever, to the subscribers / users of this

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© CRISIL Limited. All Rights Reserved. CRISIL RESEARCH | 1

Nahar Spinning Mills Ltd Inventory losses hit operating profitability

Fundamental Grade 3/5 (Good fundamentals)

Valuation Grade 5/5 (CMP has strong upside) Industry Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods

Fair Value Rs 100 CMP Rs 59

August 23, 2011

Nahar Spinning Mills Ltd’s (Nahar’s) Q1FY12 earnings were significantly lower than CRISIL Research’s expectations. However, revenues were in line with our estimates. The company reported a huge inventory loss on cotton procured in the previous two quarters, as cotton prices fell significantly thereafter. Cotton yarn prices have also followed similar trajectory. Nahar, being the second largest manufacturer of cotton yarn, is expected to benefit from the demand growth for cotton yarn in the domestic market. Further, it is also a leading exporter of cotton yarn, primarily to non-US and Euro regions such as Brazil, Bangladesh and Korea. Hence, we maintain our fundamental grade of 3/5. Q1FY12 result analysis

• Q1FY12 revenues grew 30% y-o-y to Rs 3,874 mn. The 7% y-o-y de-

growth in the garment segment was more than offset by the 36% growth

in the yarn segment.

• In Q1FY12, the company incurred huge inventory losses as the price of

cotton procured in the previous two quarters declined significantly in the

past four months. Raw material cost as percentage of sales rose to 96% in

Q1FY12 from 60% in Q1FY11.

• The cotton yarn segment’s EBIT margin turned negative (-10%) from 12%

in Q1FY11. The garment segment’s EBIT margin contracted by 250 bps y-

o-y to 4.1% in Q1FY12.

• The company incurred an EBITDA loss of Rs 827 mn as against positive

EBITDA of Rs 538 mn in Q1FY11 and net loss of Rs 901 mn as against net

profit of Rs 152 mn in Q1FY11. Earnings estimates revised downwards for FY12 and FY13

We have reduced our earnings estimates for FY12 on account of significant inventory losses in Q1FY12 and expectations of weak profitability in the next quarter. However, we maintain our revenue estimates for FY12. We have reduced our revenue estimates for FY13 on account of lower expectation of demand from export market, and lower price realisation of yarn. Valuations: Current market price has strong upside

We continue to use the discounted cash flow method to value Nahar. We have revised our fair value to Rs 100 per share on account of downward revision in FY12 and FY13 earnings estimates. The implied P/B multiples at this price are 0.6x FY12E BV and 0.5x FY13E BV. At the current market price, our valuation grade is 5/5.

KEY FORECAST

(Rs mn) FY09 FY10 FY11# FY12E FY13E

Operating income 10,008 11,093 14,036 16,968 18,747

EBITDA 1,346 1,928 3,039 667 2,606

Adj PAT (165) 539 1,303 (543) 886

Adj EPS-Rs (4.6) 14.9 36.1 (15.0) 24.6

EPS growth (%) (238.3) (421.6) 123.8 (145.3) NM

Dividend yield (%) 2.5 2.3 2.0 - 2.7

RoCE (%) 4.7 9.6 13.6 (0.7) 9.8

RoE (%) (3.2) 10.1 21.0 (8.3) 13.2

PE (x) (5.0) 5.1 2.7 (6.0) 3.7

P/BV (x) 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

EV/EBITDA (x) 5.2 5.7 5.2 21.4 5.1

#FY11 numbers are based on abridged financials

NM: Not meaningful; CMP: Current market price

Source: Company, CRISIL Research estimate

CFV MATRIX

KEY STOCK STATISTICS NIFTY 4949

NSE NAHARSPING

Face value (Rs per share) 5

Shares outstanding (mn) 36

Market cap (Rs mn)/(US$ mn) 2,137/47

Enterprise value (Rs mn) /(US$ mn) 15,381/337

52-week range (Rs) (H/L) 160/54

Beta 1.2

Free float (%) 36.0%

Avg daily volumes (30-days) 35,730

Avg daily value (30-days) (Rs mn) 2.4

SHAREHOLDING PATTERN

PERFORMANCE VIS-À-VIS MARKET

Returns

1-m 3-m 6-m 12-m

Nahar -28% -31% -40% -49%

NIFTY -12% -8% -9% -11%

ANALYTICAL CONTACT Sudhir Nair (Head) [email protected]

Arun Vasu [email protected]

Vinay Chhawchharia [email protected]

Client servicing desk

+91 22 3342 3561 [email protected]

1 2 3 4 5

1

2

3

4

5

Valuation Grade

Fu

nd

am

en

tal G

rad

e

Poor Fundamentals

ExcellentFundamentals

Str

on

gD

ow

nsid

e

Str

on

gU

psi

de

64.0% 64.0% 64.0% 64.0%

0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%1.6% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7%

33.7% 34.0% 34.1% 34.1%

0%

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100%

Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11

Promoter FII DII Others



Q1FY12 Result Summary (Rs mn) Q1FY12 Q4FY11 Q1FY11 q-o-q (%) y-o-y (%)

Net sales 3,874 3,599 2,985 7.7 29.8

Raw materials cost 3,705 1,915 1,785 93.5 107.5

Raw materials cost (% of net sales) 95.6% 53.2% 59.8% 4241bps 3580bps

Employees cost 228 222 200 2.6 13.8

Other expenses 769 761 461 1.1 66.9

EBITDA (827) 701 538 (217.9) (253.6)

EBITDA margin -21.3% 19.5% 18.0% -4083bps -3939bps

Depreciation 201 184 166 9.3 21.1

EBIT (1,027.7) 517.7 372.8 (298.5) (375.7)

Interest and finance charges 308 165 127 86.5 142.2

Operating PBT (1,336) 353 246 (270.6) (644.0)

Other Income - 3 2 (100.0) (100.0)

PBT (1,336) 355 248 (475.8) (639.6)

Tax (435) 106 95 (509.3) (557.4)

PAT (901) 249 152 (461.5) (690.9)

Adj PAT (901) 249 152 (461.5) (690.9)

Adj PAT margin -23.2% 6.9% 5.1% -3016bps -2835bps

No of equity shares (mn) 36.1 36.1 36.1 - (0.0)

Adj EPS (Rs) (25.0) 6.9 4.2 (461.5) (691.0)

Source: Company, CRISIL Research

Inventory losses led to negative EBIDTA... ... as well as negative PAT in Q1FY12

Source: Company, CRISIL Research Source: Company, CRISIL Research

Reversal of cotton and yarn prices Yarn & garment revenue break-up

Source: CRISIL Research Source: Company, CRISIL Research

3,113 2,9853,486

3,9673,599 3,874

19.4% 18.0%22.6%

25.5%

19.5%

-21.3%-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

Q4FY10 Q1FY11 Q2FY11 Q3FY11 Q4FY11 Q1FY12

(Rs mn)

Revenue EBITDA Margin ( RHS)

193 152 376 526 249

-901

6.2% 5.1%

10.8%

13.3%

6.9%

-23.2% -30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

-1000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

Q4FY10 Q1FY11 Q2FY11 Q3FY11 Q4FY11 Q1FY12

(Rs mn)

PAT PAT Margin ( RHS)

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200

250

300

350

400

450

Apr-

10

May-1

0

Jun-

10

Jul-

10

Aug-1

0

Sep

-10

Oct

-10

Nov-1

0

Dec-

10

Jan-1

1

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr-

11

May-1

1

Jun-

11

Jul-

11

Cotton Cotton Yarn

Reduction in delta in Q1FY12

2,8643,004 3,560 3,325 3,709

400702 553 450 371

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Q1FY11 Q2FY11 Q3FY11 Q4FY11 Q1FY12

Yarn Garments

Inventory losses hit

operating profitability



Share price movement Fair value movement since initiation

-indexed to 100

Source: NSE, CRISIL Research Source: NSE, CRISIL Research

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

Nahar Spinning is in the process of adding ~90,000 spindles (30,000 spindles in

each of its three manufacturing units). The expanded capacity is expected to

become operational by Q2FY12. The company will fund the capex through mix

of debt (under TUF scheme) and equity. Post expansion, Nahar Spinning will

have a total capacity of ~443,000 spindles and 720 rotors. We believe that the

expanded capacity will help Nahar Spinning better capitalise on the healthy

demand prospects in the cotton yarn segment over the medium term.

Capacity data

Source: Company, CRISIL Research

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Jan-0

8

Apr-

08

Jul-

08

Oct

-08

Jan-0

9

Apr-

09

Jul-

09

Oct

-09

Jan-1

0

Apr-

10

Jul-

10

Oct

-10

Feb-

11

May-1

1

Aug-1

1

Nahar NIFTY

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50

100

150

200

250

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400

450

500

20

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100

120

140

160

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14-M

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28-M

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11-

Apr-

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28-

Apr-

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07-J

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21-J

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04-A

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19-A

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('000)(Rs)

Total Traded Quantity (RHS) CRISIL Fair Value Nahar

345,952 345,952 346,096 356,096

440,176

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E

Spindles



EARNINGS ESTIMATES REVISED DOWNWARDS

FY12E FY13E

Particulars Unit Old New % change Old New % change

Revenues (Rs mn) 17,022 16,968 -0.3% 20,461 18,747 -8.4%

EBITDA (Rs mn) 3,325 667 -79.9% 3,734 2,606 -30.2%

EBITDA margin % 19.5 3.9 -1560 bps 18.2 13.9 -434 bps

PAT (Rs mn) 1,078 -543 -150% 1,300 890 -31.5%

PAT margin % 6.3 -3.2 -953 bps 6.4 4.7 -160 bps

EPS Rs 29.9 -15.0 -150.3% 36.0 24.7 -31.5%

Source: CRISIL Research

We have reduced our earnings estimates for FY12 by 150% on account of

significant inventory losses reported by the company in Q1FY12 and expectation

of weak profitability in Q2FY12, in anticipation of further expected inventory

losses. However, we maintain our revenue estimates for FY12.

We have reduced our revenue estimates for FY13 by 8.4% on account of lower

expectation of demand from the export market and lower price realisation of

cotton yarn; which will adversely impact the profitability of the company in

FY13.



VALUATION

We continue to use the discounted cash flow method to value Nahar. We revise

our fair value to Rs 100 from Rs 136 per share owing to the downward revision

in earnings estimates. We also increase the cost of equity by 100 bps for the

valuation to factor in the increased risk perception in an uncertain economic

environment. At this value, the implied P/B multiples are 0.6x FY12 BV estimate

and 0.5x FY13 BV estimate.

One-year forward P/BV band One-year forward EV/EBITDA band

Source: NSE, CRISIL Research Source: NSE, CRISIL Research

CRISIL IER reports released on Nahar Spinning Mills Ltd

Date Nature of report

Fundamental

grade Fair value

Valuation

grade

CMP

(on the date of report)

25-Feb-11 Initiating coverage* 3/5 Rs 136 5/5 Rs 95

06-Jun-11 Q4FY11 result update 3/5 Rs 136 5/5 Rs 90

23-Aug-11 Q1FY12 result update 3/5 Rs 100 5/5 Rs 59

* For detailed initiating coverage report please visit: www.ier.co.in

CRISIL Independent Equity Research reports are also available on Bloomberg (CRI <go>) and Thomson Reuters.

0

50

100

150

200

250

Jul-

08

Sep

-08

Nov-0

8

Jan-0

9

Mar-

09

May-

09

Jul-

09

Sep

-09

Nov-0

9

Jan-1

0

Mar-

10

May-

10

Jul-

10

Oct

-10

Dec-

10

Feb-

11

Apr-

11

Jun-

11

Aug-

11

(Rs)

Nahar Spinning Ltd 0.25x 0.5x 0.75x 1x

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

Jul-

08

Sep-

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-08

Jan-

09

Mar-

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-09

Jul-

09

Sep-

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-09

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-10

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-10

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-11

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Jun-1

1

Aug

-11

(Rs mn)

EV 3x 4x 5x 6x



FINANCIALS

Note: All ratios are computed on Adj PAT

Source: Company, CRISIL Research estimate

Income statement Balance Sheet(Rs mn) FY09 FY10 FY11# FY12E FY13E (Rs mn) FY09 FY10 FY11# FY12E FY13E

Operating income 10,008 11,093 14,036 16,968 18,747 LiabilitiesEBITDA 1,346 1,928 3,039 667 2,606 Equity share capital 181 181 181 181 181 EBITDA margin 13.5% 17.4% 21.6% 3.9% 13.9% Reserves 4,894 5,366 6,663 6,120 6,918 Depreciation 761 699 698 795 813 Minorities - - - - - EBIT 585 1,230 2,341 (129) 1,793 Net worth 5,074 5,546 6,843 6,301 7,098 Interest 867 486 482 769 581 Convertible debt - - - - - Operating PBT (282) 744 1,859 (898) 1,212 Other debt 6,408 8,559 13,377 12,251 11,006 Other income 39 65 26 88 111 Total debt 6,408 8,559 13,377 12,251 11,006 Exceptional inc/(exp) (2) (4) (106) - - Deferred tax liability (net) 454 556 568 835 835 PBT (245) 805 1,779 (810) 1,323 Total liabilities 11,936 14,661 20,788 19,387 18,940 Tax provision (79) 270 582 (267) 437 AssetsMinority interest - - - - - Net fixed assets 6,486 6,470 6,192 7,447 6,984 PAT (Reported) (166) 535 1,197 (543) 886 Capital WIP 239 413 1,413 413 363 Less: Exceptionals (2) (4) (106) - - Total fixed assets 6,725 6,883 7,605 7,860 7,347 Adjusted PAT (165) 539 1,303 (543) 886 Investments 60 44 44 44 44

Current assets

Ratios Inventory 2,016 4,885 8,053 6,508 6,163

FY09 FY10 FY11# FY12E FY13E Sundry debtors 2,462 2,454 3,724 3,719 4,109 Growth Loans and advances 1,014 1,172 2,069 1,866 2,062

Operating income (%) 9.0 10.8 26.5 20.9 10.5 Cash & bank balance 94 183 1,094 1,112 930

EBITDA (%) 10.9 43.2 57.6 (78.1) 290.9 Marketable securities 145 65 95 95 95 Adj PAT (%) (244.1) (427.1) 141.9 (141.6) NM Total current assets 5,732 8,758 15,035 13,300 13,360 Adj EPS (%) (244.1) (427.1) 141.9 (141.6) NM Total current liabilities 582 1,026 1,898 1,819 1,813

Net current assets 5,150 7,733 13,138 11,482 11,547 Profitability Intangibles/Misc. expenditure 1 1 1 1 1 EBITDA margin (%) 13.5 17.4 21.6 3.9 13.9 Total assets 11,936 14,661 20,788 19,387 18,940 Adj PAT Margin (%) (1.6) 4.9 9.3 (3.2) 4.7 RoE (%) (3.2) 10.1 21.0 (8.3) 13.2 Cash flow

RoCE (%) 4.7 9.6 13.6 (0.7) 9.8 (Rs mn) FY09 FY10 FY11# FY12E FY13E

RoIC (%) 6.0 8.6 11.0 1.7 9.1 Pre-tax profit (243) 809 1,885 (810) 1,323 Total tax paid (4) (169) (570) 535 (437)

Valuations Depreciation 761 699 698 795 813 Price-earnings (x) (5.0) 5.1 2.7 (6.0) 3.7 Working capital changes 1,797 (2,574) (4,463) 1,673 (247) Price-book (x) 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Net cash from operations 2,310 (1,235) (2,450) 2,193 1,453 EV/EBITDA (x) 5.2 5.7 5.2 21.4 5.1 Cash from investments

EV/Sales (x) 0.8 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.7 Capital expenditure (354) (856) (1,420) (1,050) (300) Dividend payout ratio (%) (12.7) 11.8 6.0 - 10.0 Investments and others (87) 95 (30) - - Dividend yield (%) 2.5 2.3 2.0 - 2.7 Net cash from investments (441) (761) (1,450) (1,050) (300)

Cash from financing

B/S ratios Equity raised/(repaid) - 0 - - - Inventory days 94 212 267 162 153 Debt raised/(repaid) (1,864) 2,152 4,818 (1,126) (1,245) C reditors days 23 38 42 38 38 Dividend (incl. tax) (21) (63) (72) - (89) Debtor days 101 92 97 81 81 Others (incl extraordinaries) 6 (4) 66 - - Working capital days 212 204 253 239 202 Net cash from financing (1,879) 2,085 4,812 (1,126) (1,334) Gross asset turnover (x) 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.1 Change in cash position (10) 89 912 17 (181) Net asset turnover (x) 1.5 1.7 2.2 2.5 2.6 Closing cash 94 183 1,094 1,112 930

Sales/operating assets (x) 1.4 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.5 Current ratio (x) 9.9 8.5 7.9 7.3 7.4 Quarterly financials

Debt-equity (x) 1.3 1.5 2.0 1.9 1.6 (Rs mn) Q1FY11 Q2FY11 Q3FY11 Q4FY11 Q1FY12

Net debt/equity (x) 1.2 1.5 1.8 1.8 1.4 Net Sales 2,985 3,486 3,967 3,599 3,874 Interest coverage 0.7 2.5 4.9 (0.2) 3.1 Change (q-o-q) -4% 17% 14% -9% 8%

EBITDA 538 787 1,013 701 (827) Per share Change (q-o-q) -11% 46% 29% -31% -218%

FY09 FY10 FY11# FY12E FY13E EBITDA margin 18.0% 22.6% 25.5% 19.5% -21.3%Adj EPS (Rs) (4.6) 14.9 36.1 (15.0) 24.6 PAT 152 376 526 249 (901) CEPS 16.5 34.3 55.4 7.0 47.1 Adj PAT 152 376 526 249 (901) Book value 140.5 153.6 189.5 174.5 196.6 Change (q-o-q) -21% 147% 40% -53% -462%Dividend (Rs) 0.6 1.7 2.0 - 2.5 Adj PAT margin 5.1% 10.8% 13.3% 6.9% -23.2%Actual o/s shares (mn) 36.1 36.1 36.1 36.1 36.1 Adj EPS 4.2 10.4 14.6 6.9 (25)


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