09/06/2011

1

ISO 9001 certified

www.joanneum.atElisabethstrasse 5, A-8010 Graz, Austria

Carbon Accounting Options for BioenergyDescriptions, Evaluations and

Implications

Bioenergy, Sustainability and Trade-offs:Can We Avoid Deforestation while Promoting Bioenergy?

Bonn Climate Change Talks – June 2011Side Event, June 8th 20:00 – 21:30

Metro

Neil Bird, Naomi Pena, Giuliana Zanchi and Dorian FriedenEmail: neil.bird@joanneum.at

ISO 9001 certified

www.joanneum.atElisabethstrasse 5, A-8010 Graz, Austria

What is the focus of our research?• Activity 2.2: Review of existing methods for

carbon accounting for bioenergy– Use Tier 2 or Tier 3 accounting methods;– Include dead wood, litter and soil organic carbon pools– Linearization period over the first rotation and not fixed at

some specific length of time, if one is using a linear approximation to the forest carbon stock dynamics.

• Activity 2.3: Alternative accounting systems for bioenergy

• Activity 2.1: Improved analysis of the potential of sustainable forest-based bioenergy for climate change mitigation

09/06/2011

2

ISO 9001 certified

Outline

• Introduction

• Alternative accounting systems

• Evaluation scheme

• Implications

• Conclusions

3

ISO 9001 certified

Introduction• Existing accounting system

– Bioenergy emissions = 0 in the energy sector– If there are carbon stock losses then they will be accounted for in

the land use sector– Reasoning

• Simple• If sustainably managed, then no life cycle carbon stock losses• Bioenergy information less certain that fossil energy consumption

– Imperfect in an imperfect world• Partial participation• Timing of emissions

• Re-evaluation of accounting systems– US – EPA

• Prevention of Significant Deterioration (PSD) and Title V permitting requirements to biogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from bioenergy and other biogenic stationary sources.

– EU Renewable Energy Directive• Implications of indirect land use change

4

09/06/2011

3

ISO 9001 certified

Accounting systems

• Three basic approaches1. CO2 emissions are not counted at the point of

combustion (0-combustion factor)• the current system;

2. CO2 emissions are counted at the point of combustion (1-combustion factor)• biomass combusted is counted in the same way as CO2

released upon combustion of fossil fuels; and3. CO2 emissions along the biomass-energy value

chain are the responsibility of end users.• Value-chain approaches are used to determine whether

bioenergy meets a regulatory requirement or to derive multiplier other than ‘0’ or ‘1’ for combustion emissions.

5

ISO 9001 certified

Physical greenhouse gas emissions and flows of carbon in a bioenergy system

6

Atmosphere

BioenergyCO2

Consumer

Fossil-CO2Non-CO2

Producer

GrowthOxidation

Bio-CO2 Fossil-CO2Non-CO2

Transferred C

09/06/2011

4

ISO 9001 certified

Theoretical accounting of flowsCurrent approach (0-combustion factor)

7

Atmosphere

BioenergyCO2

Consumer

Fossil-CO2Non-CO2

Producer

GrowthOxidation

Bio-CO2 Fossil-CO2Non-CO2

ISO 9001 certified

Theoretical accounting of flows“Tailpipe” approach (1-combustion factor)

8

Atmosphere

BioenergyCO2

Consumer

Fossil-CO2Non-CO2

Producer

Fossil-CO2Non-CO2

09/06/2011

5

ISO 9001 certified

Theoretical accounting of flows“POUR” approach (1-combustion factor)

9

Atmosphere

C embodied in products

BioenergyCO2

Consumer

Fossil-CO2Non-CO2

Producer

GrowthOxidation

Bio-CO2 Fossil-CO2Non-CO2

Flows can be estimatedfrom changes in stocks + traded products

ISO 9001 certified

Theoretical accounting of flowsValue-chain approach

10

Atmosphere

BioenergyCO2

ConsumerProducer

Fossil-CO2Non-CO2

Fossil-CO2Non-CO2

GrowthOxidation

Bio-CO2

09/06/2011

6

ISO 9001 certified

Variants to the basic approaches

• 0-combustion factor– Corrections

• Emission correction factor• Carbon tax

– Policy overlays• Limited biomass types and sources• Limited countries

• 1-combustion factor– Tailpipe– Point of uptake and release (POUR)

• Value chain– EU Renewable Energy Directive– US RFS2– DeCicco approach

• Reduces the double counting in value chain approaches if part of the chain is the responsibility of another entity

11

ISO 9001 certified

Evaluation of alternative accounting systems• Subjective evaluation

• General criteria– Comprehensiveness over space and time– Simplicity– Scale independence

12

09/06/2011

7

ISO 9001 certified

Evaluation by general criteria

13

Accountingsystem

Comprehensiveness* Simplicity Scale

independence

Rankeven

weights

Rankcomprehensive

double

Combustion factor = 0 approaches

Unmodified Low (6) High (1) Yes with drawbacks (1) 3 4

Existing + emissions correction Acceptable (4) Low (5) Yes (1) 4 5

Existing + policy overlay

Depends on policy details (5)

Depends: medium to low (4) Yes (1) 4 6

Combustion factor = 1 approachesTailpipe Medium (3) High (1) Yes (1) 1 1Point of uptake and release (POUR) High (2) Medium (3) Yes (1) 2 1

Value-chain approaches

All Very high (1) Low (5) In some versions (6) 6 3

*Assumes partial participation by countries post-2012Overestimation of emissions improved the environmental integrity if there is partial participationThe values in parentheses are the rank of each approach for each criterion.

ISO 9001 certified

Evaluation of alternative accounting systems• Stakeholder problems

– Energy security and energy price increases;– Food security and higher food prices;– Loss of environmental services through the depletion of

natural resources (i.e. deforestation);– Vulnerability to climate change– The need to reduce GHG emissions.– Rural economies

• low forest and agricultural commodity prices; and• limited employment and income opportunities.

• Impacts on stakeholder goals– Stimulate rural economies– Protect food security– Reduce greenhouse gas emissions– Preserve forests

14

09/06/2011

8

ISO 9001 certified

Accountingsystem

Stimulate rural economies

Protect food security

Reduce GHG emissions Preserve forests Rank

even weights

Rankstimulation

doubleCombustion factor = 0 approachesUnmodified High (1) Low (8) Low (9) Low (8) 9 7Existing + emissions correction

Lower than unmodified (4)

Higher than unmodified

(7)

Depends on mandates (7)

Depends on mandates (6) 8 8

Existing + acceptable lands Selective (5) Uncertain (3)

Depends on programme details (7)

Depends on programme details (6)

7 6

Existing + acceptable trading partners

High (1) High (1) High (1) High (1) 1 1

Combustion factor = 1 approachesTailpipe Low (9) High (1) High (1) Low (8) 6 8

POUR* High (1) Low (8) High (1) Low in the short term (5) 4 3

Value-chain approaches

EU Renewable Energy Directive

Depends on mandates (5)

Depends on mandates (3) Medium (6) Medium (4) 5 5

US RFS2 Depends on mandates (5)

Depends on mandates (3) High (1) High (1) 2 2

DeCicco-typeDepends on

structure of cap-and-trade (5)

Depends on structure of

cap-and-trade (3)

High (1) Likely high (3) 3 4

Evaluation by impacts on stakeholder goals

15*Assumes a a market mechanism to transfer credits for uptake to debits for emissions

ISO 9001 certified

Evaluation of alternative accounting systems

16

Accountingsystem

Rankcomprehensive double weight

Rankstimulation

double weight

Combinedrank

0-combustion factor approachesUnmodified 4 7 7Existing + emissions correction 5 8 9Existing + acceptable biomass types and sources

6 6 8

Existing + acceptable trading partners

6 1 3

1-combustion factor approachesTailpipe 1 8 6POUR 1 3 1Value-chain and consumer-based approachesEU Renewable Energy Directive 3 5 5US RFS2 3 2 2DeCicco type 3 4 3

09/06/2011

9

ISO 9001 certified

Implications

• Timing of emissions• Location of emissions• Full land use change model

– Direct and indirect land use change– GLOBIOM (Havlík, P et al, 2011)– Global biofuel demand to 2030

• 60% 1st generation• 40% 2nd generation

– Short-rotation forestry on agricultural land

– Include dead wood, litter and soil organic carbon– Pessimistic model

17

ISO 9001 certified

LUC model comparisons

18

‐200

‐150

‐100

‐50

0

50

100

150

200

EPA 20

17 

EPA 20

22CA

RBIFPR

I BAU

 202

0IFPR

I Trade

 lib. 202

0He

rtel et al

Searchinger e

t al

Lywoo

dTipp

er et al

EPA 20

17EPA 20

22CA

RBIFPR

I BAU

 202

0IFPR

I Trade

 lib. 202

0Lywoo

dTipp

er et al

IFPR

I BAU

 202

0IFPR

I Trade

 lib. 202

0Lywoo

dTipp

er et al

EPA 20

17 

EPA 20

22CA

RBIFPR

I BAU

 202

0IFPR

I Trade

 lib. 202

0Lywoo

d

Corn ethanol Sugarcane ethanol Rapeseed biodiesel

Soybean biodiesel

LUC GHG emissions(g CO2eq/MJ)

From: Berndes G., Bird N., and Cowie A. 2010. Bioenergy, Land Use Change and Climate Change Mitigation. IEA Bioenergy Strategic Paper. IEA Bioenergy:ExCo:2010:03. Available at: http://www.ieabioenergy.com/LibItem.aspx?id=6770

GLOBIOM60% 1st

40% 2nd

09/06/2011

10

ISO 9001 certified

ImplicationsTiming of emissions

19

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

2000 2010 2020 2030

Cum

ulat

ive

Emis

sion

s (M

tCO

2eq)

Emissions from Fossil Fuels and BiofuelsAgriLand Option

Living biomass DWLSOC Non-LUC Fossil fuels 60% 1st & 40% 2nd

ISO 9001 certified

ImplicationsLocation of emissions

20

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

AFR CPA EEU FSU LAM MEA NAM PAO PAS SAS WEU

Cum

ulat

ive

Emis

sion

s (M

tCO

2eq)

Emissions by Region under Different Accounting SystemsLow Default Values, Baseline Scenario, AgriLand Option

Fossil fuels IPCC POUR Value-chain

Abbreviations: AFR = sub-Saharan Africa, CPA = centrally planned Asia, EEU = Central and Eastern Europe, FSU = Former Soviet Union, LAM = Latin America, MEA = Middle East and North Africa, NAM = North America, PAO = Pacific OECD, PAS = Other Pacific Asia, SAS = South Asia, WEU = Western Europe.

09/06/2011

11

ISO 9001 certified

Conclusions• Alternatives to the current accounting system for bioenergy are being

contemplated• Bioenergy accounting systems fall into three types:

– Bioenergy has no emission in the energy sector (0-combustion factor)– Bioenergy has an emission in the energy sector

(1-combustion factor)– Bioenergy emissions follow the value chain

• There are advantages and disadvantages of all three and the choice depends on evaluation criteria

– 0-combustion factor• Simple,• Comprehensive (if all parties are involved), • Promotes bioenergy

– 1-combustion factor• More complicated• Comprehensive (or environmentally conservative) • Does not promote bioenergy (may stimulate rural economy directly)

– Value-chain• Most complicated, • Most comprehensive• Tends not promote bioenergy

21

ISO 9001 certified

Conclusions (continued)

• Implications– Timing of emissions

• Biofuels may not reduce emissions when timing is considered

– Location of emissions• Changing the accounting system alters the mitigation

responsibility by nations

– Partial participation• Reality ?

22

09/06/2011

12

ISO 9001 certified

23

Future Publications• Improved analysis of the potential of sustainable forest-

based bioenergy for climate change mitigation– Include emissions from dead wood, litter and soil organic carbon– Include sensitivity analysis of assumptions– Impacts of alternative accounting approaches – Include time series of emissions

• Overview of existing liquid biofuels for transportation technologies

• Emission balances of first and second generation biofuels: case studies for Africa, Mexico and Indonesia– Life Cycle Assessment using BioGrace

• local factors for non-LUC emissions• Global LUC emissions

ISO 9001 certified

Thank you for your attention

To download publications:

http://www.cifor.cgiar.org/bioenergy/_ref/research/output/published-document.htm