MyHome.ie Property Barometer Q4 2011

PropertyBarometerQ4 2011

Measuring the Property Market

Analysis by Annette Hughes, DKM Ecomomic Consultants

Contents

3 Introduction + Highlights

4 Market analysis

8 County by County Analysis: Market Index

11 Urban Spotlight

15 Indices + Methodology

MyHome.ie Property Barometer: Q4 2011 | 2

Introduction

W elcome to the final edition of the MyHome.ie Property Barometer 2011.The last 12 months have been very challenging for the property market. Poor economic conditions both at home and abroad, household income being reduced as a result of a difficult budget and shortage of credit has had an impact on the overall level of transactions in the market.The recent interest relief changes for those planning to purchase in 2012, as announced in the Budget, are welcomed and, together w ith the improved outlook in interest rates, may serve to encourage more buyers into the market in 2012.

“The last 12 months have been very challenging for the property market...”

Key Highlights

1. In Q4 2011 mix adjusted asking prices fell by 2.4% compared w ith 3 .2% in the previous quarter, resulting in the slowest rate of quarterly decline since Q2 2009.

2. Asking prices nationally are dow n by 43 .1% compared w ith the peak Q3 2006

w hile asking prices in Dublin are dow n 50% over the same period.

3. The average mix-adjusted asking price for a property in Dublin now stands at

€267,865 as against €235,642 nationally.

4. The annual rate of decline now stands at 13% nationally, w hich is the lowest rate of decline since Q1 2010 and 14.7% in Dublin.

5. The lowest prices were recorded for new properties, w hich declined by just 1% in the quarter. The annual rate of decline has been in single digits for three quarters, having moderated to just 6 .6% in Q4 2011 from 9% in Q3.

6. A significant number of positive measures were introduced to stimulate property transactions, including mortgage interest relief increased to 25% for first time buyers in 2012 and 15% for non-first time buyers.

7. Asking prices for 2-bed apartments were unchanged in the quarter in nine counties, albeit median prices range from €90,000 in Clare to €210,000 in W icklow. In Dublin the average asking price was €200,000, dow n 4.8% on the previous quarter.

8. Prices for three bed semis appear to be stabilising in a lot of counties w ith Donegal (€150,000) and Mayo (€165,000) unchanged for the last three quarters of 2011 w hile Monaghan, Roscommon and W exford (each €150,000) were unchanged for the last two quarters.

9. W hile access to credit has been a stumbling block throughout 2011, there are some positive indicators that credit may be more accessible throughout 2012.

10. Interest rates are expected to remain low, w hich may also encourage new buyers into the market.

Angela Keegan, MyHome.ie MD


The composition of GDP was such that investment plummeted in Q3 by 22.2% on the same quarter in 2010, w hile the annual rate of decline in consumer and government spending each increased to 3 .9% , resulting in a total decline in domestic spending of 3 .1% in the first nine months of 2011 on the same period in 2010.

Exports continue to be the main driver of grow th, albeit grow th slowed in Q3 to 0.8% from 1.1% in Q2 and 3 .1% in Q1. Exports were up by only 2.4% in the year compared w ith 10.6% in Q3 2010.

W hile one should not read much into quarterly movements,the prospects now for the full year are for a GDP grow thrate of close to 1% at best. However, much attention is nowfocused on the prospects for 2012.

The ongoing debt crisis in Europe combined w ith less than encouraging new s on the international economic front, as well as the fiscal consolidation programme underway at home, point towards many dow nside risks to the likelihood of economic grow th gathering pace in 2012.

At this point in time the range of GDP forecasts for Ireland in 2012 extends from 0.8% (ESRI, Nov 2011) to 1.8% (Central Bank, Oct 2011).

Market Analysis

Many downside risks to the 2012 GDP performance

Indications that Irish economic grow th was moving in the right direction at the time of our last Barometer (Q3 2011), received a setback in December w ith the publication of estimates for the performance of the economy in the July-September quarter of 2011.

The most recent figures show that economic activity, measured in terms of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), declined by 1.9% in Q3 2011, follow ing increases w hich had been better than expected in the first two quarters of 1.8% and 1.4% respectively.

The figures suggest that the economy remains in a fragile position, w ith the annual rate of grow th marginally back in negative territory (-0.1% ), the first annual rate of decline since Q4 2010 (-0.2% ). The annual rate of decline was more pronounced in GNP terms (-4.2% ).

Annette Hughes Director DKM Economic Consultants

“...The economy remains in a fragile position...”

“Exports continue to be the main driver of grow th”

“Attention is now focused on the prospects for 2012.”


Fragile economy turns dow n again

Mix-adjusted property prices nationally fell by 2.4% in Q4 2011 compared w ith 3 .2% in the previous quarter, resulting in the slowest quarterly rate of decline since Q2 2009.

The annual rate of decline now stands at 13% nationally, w hich is the lowest annual rate of decline since Q1 2010. The average mix-adjusted

asking price fell to €235,642 by the end of the year, 43 .1% below the peak in Q4 2006.

Assuming an estimated 15% differential between asking and transactions prices for property, this would imply an average mix-adjusted transactions price of around €200,000, around 5 .5 times annual average earnings.

The strong pick-up in consumer sentiment in October was short-lived as the overall KBC/ESRI Consumer Sentiment Index fell somew hat in November. A reaction to the December Budget may cause a further decline in the index by the year-end.

Not surprisingly, the sharpest percentage drop between 2010 and 2011, based on the average levels for January to November each year, was

recorded by the Index of Current Economic Conditions, indicating that consumers are most concerned about their current financial circumstances and their capacity to spend on large household purchases.

It is interesting that this index had been improving since 2008, using the average values for January to November each year.

Quarterly rate of decline in house prices at its lowest since Q2 2009

Consumer sentiment reverses somewhat in November

Summary of mix-adjusted asking price changes Q4 2011

€235,642

€267,865

€229,809

€237,474

Average price Q4 2011

% Change Q4 2011

Annual % change

% Change since peak

National

Dublin

New

SecondHand

- 2.4%

- 2.8%

- 0.9%

- 2.5%

- 13 .0%

- 14.7%

- 6 .6%

- 13 .5%

- 43 .1%

- 49 .9%

- 37 .8%

- 43 .9%


Sharpest drop recorded by Index of Current Economic Conditions

There is a risk, as consumers continue to practice caution in favour of increased savings, that the prospects for any near-term economic and jobs recovery w ill be dashed.

Market Analysis

The rate of price decline moderated in the Dublinmarket to 2.8% in Q4 2011 from 3.8% in the previousquarter. Asking prices in Dublin were dow n by almost50% compared w ith the peak in Q3 2006 and reached€267,865 in Q4.

The lowest price was recorded for new properties, w hich declined by just under 1% in the quarter to just below €230,000. The annual rate of decline has been in single digits for three quarters, having moderated to 6 .6% in Q4 2011 from 9% in Q3.

Like the other categories, the rate of decline in the mix-adjusted price for second-hand properties moderated for the second quarter in a row to 2.5% in Q4 from 3.3% in Q3. The annual rate of decline, at 13 .5% by the year-end, was over tw ice the corresponding rate of decline for new properties. In absolute terms the mix-adjusted price of €237,474 was marginally above the mix-adjusted price across the State as a w hole (€235,642).

Mix-adjusted asking prices: Annual rate of price declines moderated for second quarter in a row in Q4 2011

“Based on asking prices for Q4 2011, we estimate that transactions prices are back to 2002 levels nationally and to 2000 levels in Dublin.”


“New house prices declined by less than 1% in the quarter”

• Asking prices for 2-bed apartments were unchanged in the quarter in 9 counties, albeit median prices range from €90,000 in Clare to €210,000 in W icklow.

• In five counties, asking prices declined by more than 5% in the quarter: Kerry, Longford, Mayo, Roscommon and Leitrim.

• The median asking price of a 2-bed apartment in Dublin was €200,000, 4.8% below prices in the previous quarter and 16.7% dow n year-on-year.

The Budget contained a range of measures w hich w ill have serious consequences for household finances. W hile income tax rates, bands and credits were unchanged, many households w ill face lower disposable incomes in 2012, follow ing the introduction of the higher VAT rate of 23% , the €100 household charge, higher motor and carbon taxes.

However, a significant number of positive measures were introduced in an effort to help the residential property market and stimulate property transactions. These included:

• Confirmation that the current stamp duty arrangements for residential property, of 1% on transactions up to and including €1 million and 2% thereafter, w ill continue to apply in 2012.

• A 5 percentage point increase to 30% in the rate of mortgage interest relief (MIR ) for first time buyers w ho bought between 2004 and 2008. Based on the maximum amount of interest w hich qualifies for relief of €20,000 per annum for a married couple (€10,000 for a single person), the new rate corresponds to a maximum relief of €6,000 (€3,000 for a single person).

• A 5 percentage point increase to 15% in the rate of MIR for non-first time buyers purchasing a home in 2012. Based on the maximum amount of interest w hich qualifies for relief of €6,000 per annum for a married couple (€3,000 for a single person), the new rate corresponds to a maximum relief of €900 per annum for a married couple (€450 for a single person).

• MIR is to be abolished after 2012 for people buying a home and is to be fully abolished by 2018.

• A new Capital Gains Tax incentive has been introduced for property purchased between midnight December 6th and December 31st 2013. W here a property is bought during this period and held for at least seven years, the gain attributable to that seven year holding period w ill be relieved from Capital Gains Tax.

• The Government is to make a formal announcement shortly on the necessary actions and approaches for dealing w ith mortgage arrears.

Although many households are likely to be worse off in 2012, there was good news for first-time buyers in the December Budget

Asking price trends for 2-bed apartments showing a wide range of price declines across the country


If the above measures are to stimulate transactions in the property market, the market will require 1) a considerable improvement in the supply of mortgage credit for potential buyers during 2012, and 2) evidence of some stability in house prices over a sustained period.

County Analysis

Market index prepared by Graham Neary, Technical Analyst

Median Price Q4 2011 % Change Q4 2011

4 Bed Semi

Annual % Change

-2.56%

1.29%

-1.61%

1.34%

-2.78%

-0.03%

-4.70%

0.00%

-0.92%

-2.26%

0.00%

-2.97%

€360,000

€235,000

€245,000

€339,500

€175,000

€169,950

€166, 725

€175,000

€220,000

€195,000

€220,000

€179,500

-13.25%

-7 .84%

-9 .26%

-4.37%

-2.78%

-27 .68%

-14.49%

-10.26%

-16.98%

-9 .30%

-10.20%

-7 .95%

Leinster

Munster

Connaught & Ulster

€235,000

€175,000

€170,000

€175,000

€165,000

€160,000

€190,000

€215,000

-2.08%

-2.78%

0.00%

-2.23%

-8 .33%

0.00%

2.70%

-2.27%

Dublin

Meath

Kildare

W icklow

Longford

O ffaly

W estmeath

Laois

Louth

Carlow

Kilkenny

W exford

W aterford

Kerry

Cork

Clare

Limerick

Tipperary

Galway

Mayo

Roscommon

Sligo

Leitrim

Donegal

Cavan

Monaghan

-6 .00%

-10.26%

-9 .09%

-8 .21%

-10.81%

-5 .33%

-2.56%

16.22%

€225,000

€200,000

€245,000

€175,000

€208,000

€175,000

-0.66%

-7 .83%

-2.00%

0.00%

-3 .26%

0.00%

-5 .46%

-19.68%

-9 .26%

-13 .15%

-4.15%

- 7 .76%


% change in asking prices Q4 2011

Our county by county analysis of 3 bedroom semi detached properties show s the median changes in asking prices in each county. The median is the “middle” price. It can be thought of as the price of the house w hich is more expensive than exactly half of the other houses. W e find that it is superior to the average in estimating the price of a typical house.


3 Bed Semi Index

Asking prices for 3 and 4-bed semi-detached properties in some counties begin to level out


• Donegal (€150,000) and Mayo (€165,000) unchanged for last three quarters of 2011.

• Monaghan, Roscommon and W exford (each €150,000) unchanged for last two quarters.

• W aterford (€189,500) and Tipperary (€168,000) marginally dow n in Q4 2011.

• Elsew here median prices still declining by 1%

to 3% in the quarter in ten counties.

• Lowest asking prices for a 3 -bed semi in Leitrim (€115,000) and W estmeath (€132,000).

• Excluding Dublin (€255,000) and W icklow (€245,000), the highest median asking prices for 3 -bed semis were in Kildare, Galway and Cork, each at €195,000.

• Prices unchanged in last two quarters in Kilkenny (€220,000), Clare, Laois and Tipperary (€175,000 each), Roscommon and O ffaly (€170,000 each).

• Median asking price for 4-bed semis below €200,000 in 14 counties.

• Excluding Dublin (€360,000) and W icklow (€339,500), median prices in the remaining 10 counties ranged between €200,000 and €245,000.

• Price falls in the quarter of 7 -8% in Kerry and Leitrim.

Average prices for three bed and four bed semi-detached properties nationw ide

Median asking price for 3-bed semis across the country is €169,000

Median asking price for 4-bed semis across the country is €192,500, almost 14% above the price for 3 bed semis

Median asking prices in Dublin South are tw ice those in the North City of Dublin, w here prices are 62.2% off the peak

€300,000

€245,000

€217,500

€149,475

€199,975

€225,000

€225,000

€180,000

€185,000

€259,950

€225,000

€245,000

€195,000

Annual % change

Dublin South

Dublin North

Dublin South City

Dublin North City

Dublin W est

Galway City

Cork City

Limerick City

W aterford City

Dublin (All)

Cork (All)

Galway (All)

Limerick (All)

W aterford (All)

-6 .25%

0.00%

-3 .33%

-6 .58%

-6 .99%

-1.10%

0.00%

2.70%

-2.63%

-1.91%

-2.17%

0.00%

-1.52%

0.00%

-14.29%

-11.47%

-7 .45%

-19.20%

-13.05%

-9 .64%

-10.00%

-10.00%

-7 .04%

-11.88%

-10.00%

-7 .55%

-10.14%

-4.35%

Quarterly % change

Median price €

% change since peak

-48.28%

-46.15%

-48.82%

-62.16%

-45.81%

-50.00%

-40.79%

-36.84%

-42.81%

-45.27%

-38.36%

-31.47%

-33.90%

-37.14%

Trends in median asking prices in the main urban areas, Q4 2011

MyHome.ie Property Barometer: Q4 2011 |111

Dublin spotlight

Urban spotlightDespite the much improved position w ith regard to interest rates and housing affordability, the market continues to be one characterised by falling prices, limited transactions and financing constraints as well as an oversupply situation and little or no new home construction. As a result, the market is a buyer’s market w ith more homes for sale than buyers want to purchase at current prices.

We continue to believe that the restoration of employment and economic growth w ill be key factors responsible for restoring balance to the property market. The expectation is that it w ill be the

main urban areas which recover firstly, as jobs and economic activity return, resulting in more mobility in the jobs market and thus more property transactions.

Current trends in house prices in the main urban areas are mixed: prices appear to have stabilised, at least in Q4, in North Dublin and Cork City, while in other locations, such as Dublin North City, Dublin South and Dublin West, prices fell by 6% to 7% in the same quarter. However, the market may require some evidence of price stability before the conditions are in place to generate housing turnover. Such evidence is likely to emerge firstly in the main urban areas.

Dublin: Second hand residential stock available for sale is 6,500


North County DublinQ4 2011 is the first time since Q2 2009 in w hich asking prices in Dublin North have remained unchanged on the previous quarter. W ith prices now at €245,000, the annual rate of decline eased slightly to 11.5% .

Dublin North CityDespite asking prices in Dublin North as a w hole staying flat this quarter, the same cannot be said for the North City centre, w here asking prices declined by 6 .6% . The annual rate of decline is the largest of our urban locations at 19 .2% , w ith the median asking price below €150,000 for the first time.

Dublin W estDublin W est recorded the largest decline across all the urban areas in the quarter at 7% , bringing asking prices dow n to just below €200,000. The corresponding annual rate of decline was 13.1% .

South County DublinDublin South recorded its largest quarterly decline since Q3 2009, w ith asking prices dow n by 6 .3% in Q4. The fall takes the median asking price to €300,000, dow n 14.3% in the year and 48.3% from the peak.

Dublin South CityAsking prices in the South City centre fell by half the amount in the North City centre, at just 3 .3% , generating a median price of €217,500 in Q4. The decrease over the full year is just 7 .5% , a much lower level compared to other Dublin locations.

Average T ime to Sale AgreedThe average time to Sale Agreed for properties in Dublin is five months.

€259,950

€245,000

€300,000

€199,975

€149,475

€217,500

Median Price Q4 2011

% Change Q4 2011

Annual % change

% Change since peak

Dublin (All)

North

South

W est

City North

City South

- 1.90%

- 0.00%

- 6 .25%

- 6 .99%

- 6 .58%

- 3 .33%

- 11.90%

- 11.47%

- 14.29%

- 13 .05%

- 19 .20%

- 7 .45%

- 45 .30%

- 46 .15%

- 48 .28%

- 45 .81%

- 62.16%

- 48 .82%

Dublin median asking price changes Q4 2011

Around the Country


Galway CityAsking prices in this location declined by €7,000 in the previous report. The fall in this quarter is more modest, at just €2,500, bringing the median asking price to €225,000. It is the smallest percentage decline for this locality since mid-2008. The figures now suggest that asking prices have fallen by 50% from peak levels.

Average time to go Sale Agreed in Connaught & Ulster is now at

six months

Average time to go Sale Agreed in Munster is now at

seven months

Median Price Q4 2011 €225 ,000% Change Q4 2011 - 1 . 1 0 %Annual % Change Q4 2011 - 9 . 6 4 %% Change since peak - 5 0 . 0 0 %

Limerick CityO f our city locations, Limerick City has generally showed a more moderate pace of decline. After staying flat in Q3 2011, however, asking prices declined again, by €5,000 this quarter, to €180,000. The annual rate of decline in Limerick, at 10% , is now the same as in Cork.

Median Price Q4 2011 €18 0 ,000% Change Q4 2011 - 2 . 7 0 %Annual % Change Q4 2011 - 1 0 . 0 0 %% Change since peak - 3 6 . 8 4 %

Cork CityCork City saw the largest decline of all our urban spotlight locations in the previous quarter, but has now stabilised. The median asking price this quarter was flat at €225,000. This leaves the annual decline at 10% , dow n from €250,000 in Q4 2010.

Median Price Q4 2011 €225 ,000% Change Q4 2011 0 . 0 0 %Annual % Change Q4 2011 - 1 0 . 0 0 %% Change since peak - 4 0 . 7 9 %

W hat’s happening in your area?

About the Report


Mix-adjusted asking price index: Dublin vs National

INDICES

National

Dublin

New

2nd Hand

% Change

National

Dublin

New

2nd Hand

Standard Price

National

Dublin

New

2nd Hand

Q1 2006

124.99

132.28

121.19

125.75

Q1 2006

7.04%

9.34%

5.19%

7.04%

Q1 2006

373743

506046

324615

382034

Q3 2006

136.82

139.62

133.92

137.28

Q3 2006

2.96%

1.08%

5.42%

2.52%

Q3 2006

409124

534124

358721

417065

Q4 2006

138.57

139.24

134.67

139.23

Q1 2007

138.16

138.89

135.91

138.60

Q4 2006

1.28%

-0.28%

0.56%

1.42%

Q4 2006

414374

532642

360714

422990

Q1 2007

-0.30%

-0.25%

0.92%

-0.46%

Q1 2007

413133

531320

364039

421055

Q2 2007

137.57

138.80

137.85

137.59

Q2 2007

-0.43%

-0.06%

1.43%

-0.73%

Q2 2007

411373

530979

369248

418002

Q3 2007

136.58

136.50

137.37

136.59

Q3 2007

-0.72%

-1.66%

-0.35%

-0.73%

Q3 2007

408420

522157

367959

414966

Q4 2007

136.30

134.64

136.16

136.43

Q4 2007

-0.21%

-1.36%

-0.88%

-0.12%

Q4 2007

407565

515053

364713

414468

Q1 2008

134.35

132.90

134.13

134.50

Q1 2008

-1.43%

-1.29%

-1.49%

-1.42%

Q1 2008

401739

508397

359268

408598

Q3 2008

125.80

123.81

128.00

125.60

Q3 2008

-4.91%

-4.93%

-2.79%

-5.21%

Q3 2008

376180

473612

342850

381578

Q4 2008

122.08

118.40

124.59

121.84

Q4 2008

-2.96%

-4.37%

-2.66%

-3.00%

Q4 2008

365057

452921

333730

370139

Q2 2008

132.29

130.23

131.68

132.50

Q2 2008

-1.53%

-2.01%

-1.83%

-1.48%

Q2 2008

395597

498194

352707

402545

Q1 2009

114.59

109.58

114.83

114.50

Q1 2009

-6.13%

-7.44%

-7.83%

-6.02%

Q1 2009

342666

419205

307590

347857

MyHome.ie Property Barometer: The Method

The trends presented in this report are based on actual asking prices of properties advertised on MyHome.ie w ith comparisons by quarter over the last seven years. This represents the majority of properties for sale in Ireland from leading estate agents nationw ide.

The series in this report have been produced using a combination of statistical techniques. Our data is collected from quarterly snapshots of active, available properties on MyHome.ie.

Our main indices have been constructed w ith a

w idely-used regression technique w hich adjusts for change in the mixture of properties for sale in each quarter. Since the supply of property in each quarter has a different combination of types, sizes and locations, the real trends in property prices are easily obscured.

Our method is designed to reflect price change independent of this variation in mix.

For detailed statistics at the local level, we also provide a w ide selection of median asking prices broken dow n by county or by urban location.

Next MyHome.ie Property Barometer: Q1 2012

Q2 2009

112.90

107.03

114.14

112.69

Q2 2009

-1.48%

-2.33%

-0.61%

-1.59%

Q2 2009

337603

409448

305716

342343

Q3 2009

108.08

100.90

110.07

107.74

Q3 2009

-4.27%

-5.73%

-3.56%

-4.39%

Q3 2009

323180

3859a93

294835

327321

Q4 2009

104.25

96.76

105.95

104.02

Q4 2009

-3.54%

-4.11%

-3.74%

-3.45%

Q4 2009

311727

370137

283795

316019

Q1 2010

100.81

92.97

101.34

100.65

Q1 2010

-3.30%

-3.91%

-4.35%

-3.24%

Q1 2010

301449

355657

271437

305767

Q2 2010

97.41

88.77

97.01

97.32

Q2 2010

-3.37%

-4.52%

-4.27%

-3.31%

Q2 2010

291278

339598

259845

295657

INDICES

National

Dublin

New

2nd Hand

% Change

National

Dublin

New

2nd Hand

Standard Price

National

Dublin

New

2nd Hand

Q3 2010

93.63

84.95

95.15

93.28

Q3 2010

-3.88%

-4.30%

-1.91%

-4.15%

Q3 2010

279970

324985

254871

283395

Q4 2010

90.59

82.07

91.88

90.33

Q4 2010

-3.24%

-3.39%

-3.44%

-3.16%

Q4 2010

270886

313965

246108

274429

Q1 2011

86.86

78.94

88.40

86.61

Q1 2011

-4.11%

-3.82%

-3.79%

-4.12%

Q1 2011

259745

301984

236780

263127

Q2 2011

83.40

74.82

87.88

82.91

Q2 2011

-3.99%

-5.22%

-0.58%

-4.27%

Q2 2011

249385

286227

235400

251893

Q3 2011

80.71

72.01

86.59

80.15

Q3 2011

-3.23%

-3.76%

-1.48%

-3.34%

Q3 2011

241334

275478

231923

243483

Q4 2011

78.80

70.02

85.80

78.17

Q4 2011

-2.36%

-2.76%

-0.91%

-2.47%

Q4 2011

235642

267865

229809

237474


Asking pricesversusTransactionsprices

During the boom period when prices (and incomes) were rising and the number of buyers

exceeded the number of sellers, transactions prices would have been significantly higher than

asking prices, whereas now in recessionary times, asking prices are typically what vendors as-

pire to. As the market has adjusted downwards over the past four years and transactions have

plummeted, asking prices have also had to adjust downwards. In today’s market characterised

by oversupply in some locations and a lack of mortgage finance, transactions prices tend to

be below asking prices as what buyers are willing to pay or can afford is much lower now than

during the boom years. The gap should narrow, however, as sellers become more realistic and

as the demand/supply balance is addressed.

Market AnalysisAnnette [email protected]

Data AnalysisGraham [email protected]

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MyHome.ie Property Barometer Q4 2011