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Than Shwe's Post-election Plans

Than Shwe salutes from a podium as he reviews troops during a military parade marking the country's 65th ArmedForces Day at a parade ground in Naypyidaw on March 27. (Photo: Getty Images)

Burmese military chief Snr-Gen Than Shwe has a number of plans under his sleeve to ensure hiscontinued hold on power following the planned election this year, according to a former seniorintelligence officer in Burmas Ministry of Defense.

Reclusive Than Shwe is totally unprepared to give up his military leadership role at least within thenext three or four years, said Aung Lynn Htut, a former intelligence officer for the Burmese army whois now living in the United States.

Based on his military sources in Naypidaw, Burma's capital, he has outlined three possible plans thatThan Shwe could pursue.

He said Than Shwe's Plan A is to to become a leader like China's late premier Deng Xiaoping or Iran'sformer Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khomeini in the event of a landslide victory by the regime-backedUnion Solidarity and Development Party (USDP).

Plan B is if the regime-backed party does not win an outright victory. Than Shwe will form a specialmilitary commission like in China or North Korea, holding the reins from behind the scenes as the topleader of the commission, he said. I think both Gen Than Shwe and No.2 Gen Maung Aye willcontinue to hold their military posts after the election.According to Burma's 2008 Constitution, the army commander-in-chief will be the most powerfulfigure in the country, able to appoint key ministers and assume power "in times of emergency." It alsogives the military a quarter of the seats in parliament and hence a veto over decisions made bylegislators.

Than Shwe has ordered his subordinates to study the role of military commission in China, Iran,North Korea and also the function of border guard forces in Bangladesh, Aung Lynn Htut said.

He said that two unexpected events came as surprises to Than Shwe this year: the NLD boycott againstthe elections, which has damaged the credibility of the election; and the strong opposition of ethnicarmed cease-fire groups against joining the government's border guard force plan.

Since April 2009, Naypyidaw has tried to coerce all ethnic armed groups to transform their armies intoa border guard force under the regime's command. So far, only the New Democratic ArmyKachin andone Kareni group have indicated they would comply with the order.

Other groups including the large United Wa State Army (UWSA) and the Kachin Independence Army(KIA) have said they would not comply, or are in negotiations with the regime.

Because of these surprises, I heard Than Shwe is in a bit of confusion over the election, said the ex-officer said. But election or not, I would say that Aung San Suu Kyi who is going to be freed inNovember remains Than Shwe's greatest headache.

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Than Shwe and former intelligence chief Gen Khin Nyunt, who Aung Lynn Htut once reported to, werethe two key players in deciding against the army's transfer of power to Suu Kyi's political party, whichwon a landslide victory in Burma's last election in 1990.

Not unwillingly, Than Shwe seized power from the then army chief Saw Maung in 1992 and decidednot to transfer power to Suu Kyi. Not that he was just obliged to play that role. He seized theopportunity, Aung Lynn Htut said.

Than Shwe will not take any chances that the 2010 election will produce the results of the 1990elections, but if something goes wrong, he would order the army to launch another coup d'etataccording to his Plan C and be assured of his status quo, Aung Lynn Htut said.

Source:http://irrawaddy.org/highlight.php?art_id=18974

Third Attempt to Register KSPP LaunchedLeaders of the Kachin State Progressive Party (KSPP) traveled to Naypyidaw, Burma's new capital, onTuesday, to launch a third appeal to the Union Election Commission (EC) to allow the party to registerand contest the election in Burma.

Speaking with The Irrawaddy, Lapai Naw Din, an editor with the Thailand-based Kachin News Groupsaid, Three leaders including Dr.Tu Ja, the head of the party, went to Napyyidaw for what seems to bea final appeal.

Tu Ja, the former vice chairman of the KIO formed the KSPP in March 2009 and officially launched thparty in July. Although the KSPP registered with the EC in Naypyidaw in early April, the EC has yet toapprove its registration because the Burmese authorities accuse the KSPP of having ties with KachinIndependence Organization (KIO).

Section 12(a)(3) of the Political Parties Registration Law (PPRL) denies registration to any party that isinvolved with groups launching armed rebellions or involved with associations declared to be "unlawfuassociations."

James Lun Dau, a KIO central committee member and the deputy official responsible for the party'sforeign affair's, said, They [the EC] are not allowing the KSPP to register because they know the partyhas majority support in Kachin State.

They don't wish to repeat the experience in the 1990 election when they lost to the National League foDemocracy (NLD), so they won't allow any party to contest that could beat them, he said.

To date, the EC already have approved registration of more than 20 ethnic political parties toparticipate in the election, but not the KSPP.

Tu Ja told The Irrawaddy in an interview on July 2: I think the authorities will equally consider theapplications of different ethnic groups and that we won't be left out alone. That's why we are stillwaiting to hear from the EC with our utmost hope.

Having opened an office in Myitkyina, the capital of Kachin State, and launched a widespread electioncampaign in the state, the KSPP had to suspend its campaign after the party failed to register atNaypyidaw.

At present the only political party running an election campaign in Kachin State is the Unity andDemocracy Party for Kachin State, a pro-junta ethnic party allied with the state-sponsored mass civicorganization, the Union Solidarity and Development Association (USDA).

The Unity and Democracy Party for Kachin State represents the United Solidarity and DevelopmentParty (USDP) in the campaign in Kachin State.

The USDP is the main political party representing the USDA and is composed of former high-rankingarmy officers who are senior officials in the military government.

Two USDP leaders, Brig-Gen Thein Zaw, minister of Post, Communication and Telegraphs, and AungThaung, minister of Industry-1, reportedly told USDP members on a trip to Kachin State in June thatthe EC will not register the KSPP as it has ties with the KIO.

The junta-supported Unity and Democracy Party for Kachin State is led by Duwa Mading Zung Ting,

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opening libraries across the country, he said.

Diplomats and international observers, including US Senator Jim Webb, had previously predictedOctober 10 as the election day. But a rumor circulated earlier this month predicting that junta chiefSnr-Gen Than Shwe and his top generals had decided to shift the election date from October to anundisclosed date.

Than Shwe and his top generals reportedly held a meeting about the election with militarycommanders on July 10, said an official source from Napyidaw, citing a military telegraph to regionalmilitary commands instructing commanders to arrive in the capital by July 9.

Meanwhile, the Rangoon Division Election Commission held a meeting with new political parties onWednesday, calling on the parties to attend the Martyr Day event on July 19 and pay respects toindependence heroes, including Aung San, father of pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi, who wasassassinated 63 years ago.

At the meeting, officials from the Division Election Commission said they invited 21 political partiesbased in Rangoon to attend the Martyr Day event. But representatives from only 14 parties showed upat the meeting yesterday, said a source.

He added that division-level leaders of the the USDP and representatives of the National DemocraticForce, a splinter group of the main opposition National League for Democracy, attended the meeting.

On July 19, political parties will have three minutes to pay their respects to martyrs, followinggovernment officials led by Rangoon Mayor U Aung Thein Lynn, family members of martyrs anddiplomats, he said.

Source:http://irrawaddy.org/article.php?art_id=18975

Former Suu Kyi Assistant Win Htein FreedWin Htein, a former personal assistant of pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi, was released onThursday from Katha Prison, Sagaing Division, after 14 years imprisonment, according to a Burmese

rights group based in Thailand.U Win Htein was freed this morning from the prison, said Tate Naing, joint secretary of the Thailandbased Assistance Association for Political Prisoners (Burma).

Win Htein

His family in Rangoon said that Win Htein hadnt arrived at home yet. He is 69 years old.Win Htein joined the National League for Democracy (NLD) when Suu Kyi formed the party in 1988.

In the late 1970s, Win Htein was dismissed from his post as captain in the Burmese armed forces andarrested for his alleged involvement in a plot led by Captain Ohn Kyaw Myint, who was hanged for high

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treason.

He was detained at least three times after the 1988 pro-democracy demonstrations. He was held inRangoon's Insein Prison from 1989 until 1995, and in 1996 he was sentenced to 14 years imprisonmenon charges of providing misinformation to foreign journalists.

In late 2008, Win Htein was released from Katha Prison but he was immediately rearrested andreimprisoned, without his family receiving any reason.

Source:http://irrawaddy.org/article.php?art_id=18970

Truth and official lies about dengue in Burmas hot spotsChiang Mai (Mizzima) The spread of dengue fever is posing a serious health risk to people in Burmaespecially as it spreads through the epidemic hot spots of Irrawaddy and Pegu divisions and Karen andMon states.

Since Tuesday, Mizzimas Kyaw Kha has been speaking with residents and healthauthorities in these worst-hit regions to see how they are coping with the often fatalmosquito-borne disease.

Irrawaddy Division

The total number of dengue cases reported in the division from January to the middle of this year was1,221 and the death toll was 18, according to combined figures from the divisional health department,the state-run run Pathein Peoples Hospital, and Mawlamyeinkyun Township Hospital and PeoplesClinic.

The fever had a particular impact on Pathein Township and nearby villages. The number of victimstreated at Pathein Peoples Hospital until July 3 was 561, nine of whom were children between the agesof six and 14 who died, according to the divisional health department. Dengue has spread through 27townships, affecting victims from villages in Pathein, Mawlamyinekyun, Laputta, Kangyihtount,Thapaung, Kyaungkone, Einmae and Phyarpon, a senior departmental official said.

In the dengue affected area of Mawlamyeinkyun, local authorities were preparing to use anti-mosquitospray and educate residents about the fever, but in unaffected areas, such preventative measures hadbeen neglected until now, a township health department spokesman said.

A doctor from a Peoples Clinic said, The most obvious symptoms are high body temperature, jointpain and swelling of the blood vessels. Some patients were able to recover simply by taking medicinesregularly for about three days but some required injections [for the pain]. We give injections to patientfree of charge.

In the dengue season, health departments should spray anti-mosquito chemicals in the potential areasof dengue transmission and the public should be educated about the fever, the doctor said. He advisedthe public to eliminate standing water, the main place mosquitoes breed, and to take care ofenvironmental hygiene.

Mon State

The total number of cases reported in the states 10 townships from January to July 3 was 1,236 and thdeath toll was 11, according to the state health department.

The most seriously affected areas were villages in Moulmein Township, in which 222 people sufferedbut none died of the fever. In Thanphyuzayat Township, 211 people contracted dengue and one died. InMudon and Paung townships, respectively 179 and 145 people contracted the disease.

One of 124 patients who contracted the fever in Chaungsone died, four of 99 in Thaton, three of 93 inBeling Township, one of 66 in Yay Township and one of the five in Kyaikhto Township died after

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contracting dengue. In Kyaikmayaw, 91 people contracted the disease. Most of the fatalities werechildren between the ages of four and 12, according to the state health department.

A doctor at the infectious diseases department of Thaton Hospital told Mizzima: In our region,patients have been presenting at the hospital for treatment since April and most are from rural areasThe children who died were also from the villages.

They [parents and sufferers] thought that it was just a normal fever and presented after suffering forthree days, with severe joint pain. I think more people were infected this month and more still willcontract the fever next month, the doctor said.

A Thaton health authority staff member said it was implementing protection measures such as sprayinrepellant in mosquito-breeding areas, pruning bushes and educating people about dengue, butresidents said the protection measures had been either ineffective or non-existent.

They never came to us even to speak or educate people so we cant hope that they will carry out labouintensive work such as pruning bushes, a Nankhae villager said.

They did come few days ago to spray mosquito repellant for a little while but it was all just for showand they never came again. I think that they came to take photos to publish in newspapers to show thewere taking action, the villager said.

Thaton General Hospital staff said there were dengue victims at Chaungsone Hospital in the state, butMizzima was unable to contact the hospital.

Pegu Division

The total number of cases reported in the divisions 11 townships from March to July was 188 and twodied in that period, according to the divisional health department.

The most severely affected area was Pegu Township, in which 67 people suffered the fever, but therewere no fatalities. One of 45 patients in Nyaunglaypin and one of the 27 victims in Dike Oo died of thefever. Ten people from Thanappin, 10 in Waw, seven in Shwekyin, seven in Taungoo, four in

Kyaukdaga, four in Htandapin, four in Kawa and three in Kyaukkyi contracted the fever.

The contagious disease has been present in the division since March and case numbers rose sharply inJune. Division- and township-level health teams said they were implementing protection measuressuch as repellant spraying and educating the people about the fever, but again local residents rejectedthe claims.

A high-school teacher from Minnyi Quarter in Taungoo told Mizzima: I have lived in this quarter for10 years. Whatever the season, dengue or malaria, they have never come to educate the public orspread mosquito-repellent spray.

Because Pegu health teams had failed to educate the public about this infectious disease, transmissionwas out of control, a doctor at Pegu General Hospital said.

During the monsoons heavy rains, mosquitoes breed in stagnant water that collects, so people shouldtake care of environmental hygiene at ponds and water tanks around the home, the doctor said.

Health departments of these regions know dengue fever is very common during the rainy season.So, if they are dutiful to control the transmission of the disease, the transmission rate will be low.Otherwise, the rate will double, he told Mizzima.

Karen State

As many as 516 people from six townships in the state contracted dengue fever in the first half of this

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year, and of those two from Hlaingbwe Township died. State health officials said cases have increasedsince last year.

The worst-hit township was Pa-an, with 208 patient admissions. There were 137 such cases inKawkereik, 85 in Myawaddy, 12 in Kyainseikyi and two in Papon.

Outbreaks in the state started in February and 261 cases have been recorded up to May. Last monthalone there were 255 more cases, officials said.

The state health department this month launched an awareness campaign and preventative measuresincluding pest control in wells and ponds, Karen State Indigenous Medicine (alternative medicine)department head Aung Aung said.

These cases are increasing as it is a seasonal disease. The signs and symptoms of this disease cannotbe detected immediately but take time. Most of the cases are found in rural areas, he told Mizzima.

A local farmer from Myainggalay village in Karen State said: Our locality is a mosquito-infested area.They [Aedes, the genus of two types of mosquito that carry dengue] are too big. It made us itch and wapainful. Those who got the fever visited Pa-an hospital for treatment but no one [official] came hereand gave treatment to us.

Lack of proper preventative health care measures by the government in these rural areas and poor

transport and infrastructure may lead to many more deaths from dengue, a staff member from the Pa-an social welfare departmental dispensary said.

Most of the villagers are unaware of the deadly nature of this disease and dont take the feversseriously when the signs and symptoms arise, he said. There are no clinics or dispensaries in ruralareas for them to receive treatment even if they are aware the health department never sends healthworkers to these places.

Source:http://mizzima.com/news/inside-burma/4109-truth-and-official-lies-about-dengue-in-burmas-hot-spots.html

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