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MarinersMariners
WEATHER LOGWEATHER LOGVolume. 58, Number 1
April 2014
From the Editor
Mariners Weather LogISSN 0025-3367
U.S. Department of Commerce
Dr. Kathryn D. Sullivan
Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere & Acting
NOAA Administrator
Acting Administrator
National Weather Service
Dr. Louis Uccellini
NOAA Assistant Administrator for Weather Services
Editorial Supervisor
Paula M. Rychtar
Layout and Design
Stuart Hayes
NTSC Technical Publications Office
ARTICLES, PHOTOGRAPHS, AND LETTERS SHOULD BE SENT
TO:
Ms. Paula M. Rychtar, Editorial Supervisor
Mariners Weather Log
NDBC (W/OPS 51)
Bldg. 3203
Stennis Space Center, MS 39529-6000
Phone: (228) 688-1457 Fax: (228) 688-3923
E-Mail: [email protected]
SOME IMPORTANT WEB PAGE ADDRESSES
NOAA
http://www.noaa.gov
National Weather Service
http://www.weather.gov
National Data Buoy Center
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov
AMVER Program
http://www.amver.com
VOS Program
http://www.vos.noaa.gov
Mariners Weather Log
http://www.vos.noaa.gov/mwl.shtml
Marine Dissemination
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/marine/home.htm
TURBOWIN e-logbook software
http://www.knmi.nl/turbowin
U.S. Coast Guard Navigation Center
http://www.navcen.uscg.gov/marcomms/
See these Web pages for further links.
Hello and welcome once again to another great edition of the Mariners
Weather Log. It has been a busy year for VOS with all the changes and
upgrades as well as working around our budget constraints. With all this at
hand, you, our marine weather observers remain true to the cause and we
appreciate all that you do. Our data is getting better than ever and our goal
remains quality over quantity.
On the cover, I have a wonderful article submitted from one of our European
comrades, Margot Choquer from “OceanoScientific”. Margot was intro-
duced to me via email by Martin Kramp; Martin is Ship Coordinator for
Ship Observations Team (SOT), JCOMMOPS (WMO/IOC-UNESCO).
Martin’s association with this ongoing project gave me a perfect opportunity
to showcase their story. The Bark EUROPA travels some of the most data
sparse regions of the world, including the austral ocean, and below the Cape
Good Hope, Cape Leeuwin as well as Cape Horn; some of the most hostile
areas to be found. The overall approach is a solid collaboration between
French and Germany institutes as well as the University of Maine, USA.
The entire article is impressive, from the science to the dedicated crew and
one of the oldest sailing vessels in existence, which in itself, is a sight to
behold.
Nicknamed the “White Hurricane”, Freshwater Fury”, and “Great Storm of
1913”, this story of the 1913 storm remains the most devastating natural dis-
aster to ever strike the Great Lakes. Richard Wagenmaker, Meteorologist
from Detroit Forecast office submitted this great piece. One hundred years
later, NOAA commemorates the Storm of 1913, not only for the pivotal role
it plays in the history of the Great Lakes, but also for its enduring influence.
The article is amazing and it is hard to believe how little we had to create
forecasts and our limited ability to communicate these events. Everything
back then was manual and other than “past experiences” one could fall back
on, there was a lot of “unknowns” that the mariner had to deal with.
Communications were a vital link that held a huge impact on the inability to
relay critical information to the mariners in a timely fashion. This article
really captures the importance of our National Weather Service launching a
comprehensive initiative to build a “Weather Ready Nation”. It also show-
cases the need for good marine weather observations, they do matter!
A special thanks to Christopher Landsea for his contribution on Super-
typhoon Haiyan; “Mean Circulation Highlights and Climate Anomalies by
Anthony Artusa”. Chris is the Science Operations Officer at the National
Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida. We appreciate all that you do!
I know you will find this issue interesting. If you have any comments or
questions, please send them on! I love getting articles submitted and those
photographs I receive are really magnificent. Thank you so much.
Remember…Only YOU know the weather, report it!
Regards,
Paula
On the Cover:
Bark EUROPA crew members climbing the
mast to guide the helmsman through the ice.
Photo Bark EUROPA
Mariners Weather Log
Table of Contents
Bark EUROPA: The OceanoScientific® System on board the three-master . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4
Reconstructing the Great Lakes “White Hurricane” Storm of 1913 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9
Shipwreck: MORMACPINE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22
Practical Formulas for Estimating Winds and Waves during a Tropical Cyclone . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .24
Departments:
Marine Weather ReviewMean Circulation Highlights and Climate Anomalies September through December 2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .29
Marine Weather Review – North Atlantic Area September through December 2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .33
Marine Weather Review – North Pacific Area March through August 2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .41
2014 Marine Meteorological Monitoring Survey (MMMS) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .45
Tropical Atlantic and Tropical East Pacific Areas September through December 2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .46
VOS ProgramVOS Program New Recruits: July 1, 2013 through February 28, 2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .53
VOS Cooperative Ship Report January 1, 2013 through December 31, 2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .53
Points of Contact . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .54
Volume. 58, Number 1, April 2014
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Bark EUROPA: The OceanoScientific® System
onboard the three-master
Margot Choquer - OceanoScientific®
Bark EUROPA crew and shore teamMartin Kramp - Ship Observations Team, JCOMMOPS (WMO/IOC-UNESCO)
Technical Details
Built: 1911
Home port: The Hague, The Netherlands
Length overall: 56 m
Beam: 7.45 m
Draft: 3.9 m
Air draft: 33 m
Max sail area: 1250 m2
Engines: 2 x 365 hp
Call sign: PDZS
The three-master Bark EUROPA was built in 1911 inHamburg (Germany) and fully rebuilt and re-rigged in1994 in Amsterdam (the Netherlands). Since she startedher new life as a cruising ship, the three-master hasroamed the seas of the world. A professional crew com-bined with a voyage crew of all ages and nationalities sailher. Tall Ship enthusiasts, some with no sailing experi-ence, take the wheel, hoist the yards, navigate and muchmore. Participating in sailing and running the Bark
EUROPA is part of the overall experience on board.
Bark EUROPA follows the favor-able winds of traditional sailingroutes. Since the year 2000 Bark
EUROPA has been crossingoceans on a regular basis andhas a reputation of a ship thatreally sails. Everyone on board isassigned to the watch duties tonavigate and steer the ship and tohoist and lower the sails. Onboard everybody is given theopportunity to experience allaspects of the life of a sailor.From December to March, in theSouthern summer, she sails to theAntarctic Peninsula. These voy-ages appeal to the sailing enthusi-asts, the birdwatchers, the
photographers, the artists, and the nature-lovers who want to discover the unspoiled environment.The expeditions start in Ushuaia, Argentina, the most southern city in South America. From there,the ship must cross ‘the Drake Passage’, known to sailors all over the world. Albatrosses andPetrels accompany the ship on her way to the Antarctic paradise. In the Antarctic waters, the three-master anchors in sheltered bays almost every day. The crew takes groups ashore in the dinghiesto see glaciers, seals, birds and penguin rookeries. In the mean time, the adventurers waitingonboard are given lectures by experienced guides about the flora, the fauna and where to find birdand sea elephant colonies. The boat meets there the most loyal visitors of the Southern Ocean:enormous Humpback and Minke whales and even Orcas may well come close to the ship, curiousto see who ventures into their waters as steep glaciers, walls of ice with magical shapes and surre-al colours surround the vessel.
Bark EUROPA in Antarctica, among the icebergs. Photo copyright
Hajo Olij - Bark EUROPA
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The OceanoScientific® Programme is currently carrying out expeditions on 2 sailing vessels:onboard a 16-meter sailing ship especially designed for scientific use, the NAVOSE® - that is tosay in French: Navire A Voile d'Observation Scientifique de l'Environnement (meaning: SailingVessel for the Scientific Observation of the Environment) and the three-master Bark EUROPA.Based on first trials in former years, successful expeditions onboard the NAVOSE® (North Atlantic)and the three-master Bark EUROPA (Drake Passage, Cape Horn, Antarctic, South Pacific) wererecently carried out in 2013 and early 2014. The emerging data proved to be of good quality andwere gathered on transocean transects partially without any observation from other vesselsthroughout 2013.
The OceanoScientific® Programme developed its own tool: The OceanoScientific® System(OSC System), which is an innovative "Plug & Play" equipment for the automatic acquisition andtransmission by satellite of ten to twelve scientific parameters on platforms not suitable for existingsystems (such as “Ferryboxes”) due to size, weight, power consumption and other issues. Methods
and data formats follow the recommendations and standards of UN agencies related to climatechange and operational oceanography/meteorology, in particular JCOMM’s Ship ObservationsTeam (WMO/IOC-UNESCO). Data collected during the OceanoScientific® Campaigns are comple-mentary to data from other sources (scientific cruises, VOS, drifters, buoys and satellite observa-tions) and will participate in enhancing the knowledge of ocean-atmosphere fluxes in particular, aswell as bridge the gaps in the global data coverage.
The overall approach is based on a solid collaboration with the French institutes IFREMER (FrenchInstitute for the Exploitation of the Sea), Météo-France (French Meteorological Institute) andLOCEAN (IPSL - INSU/CNRS - French institute for physical and bio-chemical study of the oceanand climatic variability). Other international institutes such as GEOMAR (Helmholtz Centre forOcean Research, institute investigating the chemical, physical, biological and geological processesof the seafloor, oceans and ocean margins and their interactions with the atmosphere, in Germany)and the University of Maine (USA) also joined the collaboration.
Spatial distribution of the data gathered thanks to the OceanoScientific® Programme in 2013 onboard two vessels - Boogaloo and Bark EUROPA - both members ofthe Voluntary Observing Ships (VOS) programme as part of the JCOMM’s Ships Observation Team (WMO/IOC-UNESCO). Chart JCOMMOPS
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OceanoScientific® Team and the Bark
EUROPA crew met in August 2012, inAmsterdam to see how the OSC Systemcould fit onboard. Bark EUROPA is a largevessel and the crew was easy to convinceso the deal was quickly celled: an OSCSystem was to be installed onboard for theAntarctica Expeditions to come. Back toFrance, the OceanoScientific® teamtogether with the SubCtech workshop hadto make a few adjustments into the OSCSystem so it would match a few technicalpoints such as power voltage, pipes andhoses for water intake and outlet, cablelengths between sensors and modules,etc. which were specific to that vessel. TheOSC System prototype version 2.1 wasthen ready to be mobilised onboard thethree master in Ushuaia in January 2013. It was designed to collect the following parameters: Atmospheric pressure, Air temperature,Humidity, True wind direction and True wind speed, Water temperature, Salinity, and Partial pres-sure of carbon dioxide (pCO2).
The atmospheric sensors were installedon a spreader of the mizzenmast (firstmast from the rear, third from the bow) asthe oceanographic sensors were fitted intothe sea-chest room, close enough to avessel water intake to have a small dedi-cated bypass. On the atmospheric side,the wind sensor was not clear enoughfrom the windage so the wind data werebiased because of the position of the sen-sor, even though, at that time, no betterlocation on that mast was available andinstalling the sensor on another mast wasnot an option for technical reasons. Appartfrom that, the atmospheric data were col-lected every 6 seconds and transmitted onthe GTS (Global TelecommunicationSystem) in the SHIP format once an hour.However, due to the bias, wind data weredisabled on the GTS so only the properatmospheric data from the humidity, tem-perature, and barometer were made avail-
able on the network. On the oceanographic side, the OSC System onboard was collecting SeaSurface Temperature (SST) and Sea Surface Salinity (SSS) with a Seabird 45 embedded in awater circuit together with a relatively new partial pressure of carbon dioxide sensor. This device ispretty small compared to the benchmark General Oceanics sensor used onboard most scientificcruises. It is currently getting acquainted with the international scientific community as it has beendeployed onboard the German research vessel PolarStern.
From left to right: Eric Kesteloo (Captain), Gary Hogg
(Chief-Engineer) and Klaas Gaastra, also Captain, back to
back with Eric, are posing with the OSC System in Cape
Town (South Africa), on Saturday 4 May 2013. Photo
SailingOne
The Ocean Physics Laboratory (LPO - IFREMER Brest) has
automatically carried out the comparison of the sea sur-
face temperature (SST) and salinity (SSS) data to the cli-
matology models of the international scientific community.
Here displayed for the first deployment of the OSC System
onboard, from January to April 2013, discrepancies
between the in-situ data and the climatology happened
subsequently to a mechanical failure of the pumping sys-
tem (while testing various pumps), measurements being
then done in the air instead of the sea water. Graphs LPO -
IFREMER
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Christophe Chaumont (SailingOne) in
Cape Town (South Africa) while
demobilising the OSC System. Before
leaving Bark EUROPA, he receives
the comments and advices of the
Chief-Engineer Gary Hogg, who took
good care of the functioning of the
material onboard. Photo SailingOne
The OSC System was later demo-bilised in May in Cape Town as theAntarctica expeditions were over forthe austral summer 2012-2013 andwere due to resume in December2013. The OSC System came backto Europe for its regular mainte-nance and calibration period overwhich the thermosalinograph, thebarometer and the air humidity andtemperature probe went through cali-bration protocols to be ready for theremobilisation in October 2013 priorto the next Antarctica trips. In themean time, Bark EUROPA topmizzenmast was chopped off duringrough weather prior to the the ship
arrival in Australia. The ship navigation sensor was damaged and the crew asked theOceanoScientific® team for help to replace it quickly. OceanoScientific® provided the crew with awind sensor to be installed on top of the mizzenmast after the mast was fixed. When the OSCSystem was remobilised in October 2013, the wind sensor was already in place and ideally placed,away from any windage disturbance.
Comparison from the in-situ pressure data collected onboard
from the OSC System barometer to the pressure model, per-
formed by Pierre Blouch from Météo-France and E-Surfmar.
Here, zoomed in aver a 10 day-period over the 96 days of sail-
ing. Graph Météo-France
After crossing the Indian Ocean, Bark EUROPA landed inSydney where the OSC System was mobilised onboard forthe second time. Same sensors, same places except for thewindmeter. After re-routing the wind data from the navigationcomputer on the bridge, wind data were hooked up in theOSC System as well. However, the air humidity and temper-ature failed during remob, so the ship cast off Sydney toNew Zealand and across the Pacific Ocean with a brokenprobe. Before its next port call in Stanley (Falkland Islands),Bark EUROPA rounded Cape Horn safely. A new air humidi-ty and temperature probe was mounted in Stanley. Sincethen, the OSC System is fully up and running and Bark
EUROPA sailed back and force to the Antarctic Peninsulaand is now on her way back to Europe collecting the full setof scientific parameters.
(left) BarkEUROPA navigat-
ing between the
ice, all sails rolled
up. Photo Lisa
Bolton - BarkEUROPA
(right)BarkEUROPA moored
in Ushuaia har-
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Patrick Hamilton -
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Bark EUROPA withstanding a gust in an Antarctica bay. Photo Peter
Holgate - Bark EUROPA
Bark EUROPA is also fittedwith the European softwarefor in situ data logging andtransmission ashore:TurboWin developed byKNMI (Royal NetherlandsMeteorological Institute) withcontributions from severalNational MeteorologicalServices and endorsed bythe WMO (WorldMeteorological Organization)and E-SURFMAR (EuropeanSurface Marine Programme),so the crew is also transmit-ting its visual observation ofthe weather conditions aswell as - weather permitting -some SST measurements
from a bucket, up to four times a day. TurboWin andthe OSC System mobilised onboard make the Bark
EUROPA a double member of the VOS Programme,where it is known under the callsign PDZS for itsTurboWin input and under the callsign OSCFR05 forthe OSC System data input.
Bark EUROPA sailing downwind. Photo Matt
Maples - Bark EUROPA
After the second OceanoScientific® Campaign is completed, later this year, the OSC System willbe demobilised for calibration and maintenance. However, the common history between theOceanoScientific® Programme and the mighty ship will not stop there, as we already look forwardto our next venture together, probably as soon as August 2014!
BarkEUROPAcrew at
work,
adjust-
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sail set-
tings.
Photo
BarkEUROPA
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Reconstructing the Great Lakes
“White Hurricane” Storm of 1913Wagenmaker, R ., Mann, G.1, Pollman, R. 1, Elliott, D. 1, Smith, B. , Keysor, J. 2, Boris, J. 2, Bardou, M. , Brody E. ,Green, R.4, Waters, S. 4, Clark, K. , Jamison, S. 5, Lombardy, K. 5, Levan, J ., Hintzen, K .
1NOAA/National Weather Service, Detroit MI2NOAA/National Weather Service, Gaylord MI3NOAA/National Weather Service, Chicago IL4NOAA/National Ocean Service, Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary, Alpena MI5NOAA/National Weather Service, Cleveland OH6NOAA/National Weather Service, Buffalo NY7University of Michigan, Ann Arbor MI
Prologue: “No lake mastercan recall in all his experi-ence a storm of suchunprecedented violence withsuch rapid changes in thedirection of the wind and itsgusts of such fearful speed!Storms ordinarily of thatvelocity do not last over fouror five hours, but this stormraged for sixteen hours con-tinuously at an average veloc-ity of sixty miles per hour,with frequent spurts of seven-ty and over. Obviously, with awind of such long duration,the seas that were madewere such that the lakes arenot ordinarily acquainted with.The testimony of masters isthat the waves were at least35 feet high and followedeach other in quick succes-sion, three waves ordinarilycoming one right after theother. They were consider-ably shorter than the wavesthat are formed by an ordi-nary gale. Being of suchheight and hurled with suchforce and such rapid succes-sion, the ships must havebeen subjected to incrediblepunishment!” - Lake CarriersAssociation report on theStorm of 1913
1. Introduction
In November of 1913, the Great Lakes were struck by a massivestorm system combining whiteout blizzard conditions and hurri-cane force winds. The storm lasted for four days, from the 7th tothe 11th, during which it was reported that Great Lakes marinersendured 90 mile per hour winds and waves reaching 35 ft inheight. It is likely that 4 of the 5 Great Lakes experienced hurri-cane force wind gusts for a minimum of 10 hours, and potentiallyas long as 20 hours. With only basic technology available, ship-ping communication and weather prediction systems were notprepared for a storm of such devastating force. When the skiesfinally cleared, the Great Lakes had seen a dozen major ship-wrecks (Figure 1), an estimated 250 lives lost, and more than $5million in damages - the equivalent of more than $117 milliontoday. Several of the ships lost were the pride of the Great Lakesbeing among the newest and largest in the fleet (Figure 2).
Artwork by Debra Elliott (embedded image of the Henry B. Smithfrom Edward H. Hart, Detroit Publishing Co.)
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Nicknamed the “White Hurricane”, ‘Freshwater Fury”, and “Great Storm of 1913”, the 1913 stormremains the most devastating natural disaster to ever strike the Great Lakes. One hundred yearslater, NOAA commemorates the Storm of 1913, not only for the pivotal role it plays in the history ofthe Great Lakes, but also for its endur-ing influence. Modern systems of ship-ping communication, weather predic-tion, and storm preparedness have allbeen fundamentally shaped by theevents of November 1913.
What follows is a description of theunusual synoptic weather pattern thatled to the storm, the impacts and lega-cy of the storm, and a unique forensicreconstruction of winds and waves viaa numerical model retrospective simu-lation. Given the lack of marine obser-vations 100 years ago, it is hoped theretrospective simulation will give newand detailed insights to meteorologistsand historians as to what happened and when.
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Figure 1: Great Storm of 1913 Shipwrecks; Those circled sank between 6 pm to midnight on Nov. 9th (image
is public domain)
Figure 2: The Isaac M. Scott; sank near Alpena MI November 9,
1913. (image courtesy of NOAA Thunder Bay National Marine
Sanctuary).
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The Weather Bureau had been in existence for a number of years prior to 1913. In the early 20thCentury several important inventions such as Marconi’s wireless telegraph, Edison’s telephone,and the Wright Brothers air flight opened new doors to weather forecasting and dissemination. Infact, many improvements occurred in the field of weather forecasting shortly after the 1913 storm,primarily because of complaints lodged against the U.S. Weather Bureau for inaccurate weatherforecasting and slow communication of storm warnings.
Figure 3: Clipper system approaching the Great Lakes
valid at 8 am November 7, 1913 (image courtesy
Environment Canada)
WARM
Although these technological advances werechanging the landscape of weather forecastingin the United States, many Great Lakes weath-er warnings were still communicated via flagsand pennants. The Weather Bureau would indi-vidually notify coastal locations on when toraise and lower signals based on the hazardthreat to mariners. This Coastal WarningDisplay program was used for over 100 yearsand was finally discontinued on February 15,1989. Despite the official retirement of theCoastal Warning Display program, the U.S.Coast Guard and some other stations contin-ued to display the warning signals withoutdirect participation from the National WeatherService.
In the early 1900’s, the Weather Bureau beganmailing one to two week forecast maps to hun-dreds of locations across the United States.These forecasts were based primarily upon vol-unteer observations, kite instruments and asparse weather balloon network. Although this
was a significant step forward in the amount of weather information a mariner might have at theirdisposal, the lack of Great Lakes observations or access to real time data resulted in largeunknowns. The first weather balloon sounding in the United States occurred in St. Louis in 1904. Inthe early 1900s, weather balloon data was not easily incorporated into real time forecasts becauseballoons had to be retrieved after launch and the data manually recovered.
To help fill in these “unknowns”, the mariner of 1913 relied on past experience, as well as variousnatural clues to help identify approaching weather. Many of these clues were rooted at least partial-ly within good science. These natural clues were particularly important once you left port and wereover the open lakes, too far away from shore to view hazard flags or pennants.
Wireless communications were available on the Great Lakes at this time, and were expanding rap-idly with the erection of a number of wireless stations. Unfortunately, it appears that in all likelihood,most of the ships that sank during the 1913 storm did not have this new technology installed. TheWeather Bureau issued weather warnings for the Great Lakes in advance of the 1913 storm. Asthe storm raged over the coming days, these forecasts and warnings were updated. But withoutthe wireless equipment installed on many of the ships, mariners would have no access to thisupdated information once they left port and traveled into the open lake.A
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3. Overview of the Great Storm of 1913
The Great Storm of 1913 is really a tale of two storms. On November 6th and 7th, a low pressuresystem, sometimes referred to as a “Clipper”, and an associated Arctic cold front crossed the north-ern U.S. Plains and Canada and moved in the Upper Great Lakes the morning of November 7th(Figure 3). Ahead of the front, mild southwesterly winds were bringing near record warmth intomuch of the Great Lakes region. However, by 10 am on the 7th, the Weather Bureau had hoistedStorm Warning flags for the entire region for southwesterly gales and the anticipated Clipper. Alsothat morning, the Arctic cold front passed Duluth MN and Thunder Bay ON, and spilled acrosswestern Lake Superior during the day. By Friday evening deeper Arctic air spread across the lakebringing Storm Force northerly winds that would eventually spread across Lake Michigan in theearly morning hours of Saturday, November 8th. This Clipper storm was impressive in its own rightas several large ships were drivenashore from Lake Superior ontoMichigan’s Upper Peninsula. Theseincluded the Turret Chief, the pas-senger ship Huronic (Figure 4), theL.C. Waldo, the William Nottingham,and others. The Louisiana was driv-en aground by 70 mph wind in theearly morning hours of November 8thin Green Bay – and subsequentlycaught fire and burned while wreckedalong the rocky shoreline (Henning1992).
Figure 4: Great Lakes passenger ship Huronic driven
ashore (image public domain in the United States)
On November 8th the Clipper stormcenter had moved into northern LakeHuron, stalled and slightly weak-ened, albeit while still producingGale and Storm Force wind gustsover the upper Great Lakes. (Figure
5). However, unknown to all, a newstorm was developing across thesoutheast United States and interact-ing with a strong jet stream aloft. Onthe morning of November 9th, thesouthern storm system began tointensify over northern Virginia asthe Arctic front pushed southeastthrough the Ohio Valley. The centralpressure dropped to 985 millibars(hPa)/29.10 inches and phased withthe weakening Clipper storm systemapproaching from the north (Figure
6). By this time, the newer southernstorm had become the dominantsystem. As the much colder air fedinto the system, the storm began
ARCTIC
COLD
Figure 5: Surface
map valid at 8 pm
November 8, 1913
showing two
storms and arctic
cold over the Great
Lakes (image cour-
tesy of Environment
Canada)
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strengthening and backing tothe north-northwest towards itscold air supply, becoming ameteorological monster, grow-ing and feeding on moisturefrom the north Atlantic andmixing with the Arctic coldacross the Great Lakes.
This phase of the storm iscommonly referred to as the“White Hurricane”, and was thedeadliest portion of the GreatStorm of 1913. The “WhiteHurricane” portion of the stormwill also be the focus of thecomputer simulation andanalysis presented later in thispaper.
By the evening of November9th, the storm deepened to avery intense central pressureof approximately 969hPa/28.60 inches as it trackednorth-northwest to eastern
Lake Erie (Figure 7). At thesame time, strong Arctic highpressure 1034 hPa/30.54 inch-es was approaching northwestMinnesota.
The close proximity of the twoweather systems resulted instrengthening of the pressuregradient, producing a pro-longed and intense windacross the Great Lakes. Thestorm finally began to weakenon November 10th and shiftedto the St. Lawrence Valley onNovember 11th. A dozen majorshipwrecks resulted from thisstorm, including 8 ships onLake Huron and 1 in LakeSuperior that sank in the 6hour period between 6 pm andmidnight on November 9th.
b
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Figure 6a and 6b: a) Observed surface low position near Washington D.C. at 8 am November 9, 1913 (image
courtesy of Environment Canada); b) computer simulation of mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) valid at 8 am
November 9, 1913.
These included the Isaac M.
Scott, Charles S. Price,James C. Carruthers, Argus,Hydrus, John A. McGean,Regina, Wexford, and theHenry B. Smith (Brown 2002).
Few wind reports are availablefrom the lakes themselves buthourly observations are avail-able at some of the portsdownwind of the lakes. Windsmeasured downwind of LakeHuron at Port Huron MI,increased to 50 to 60 mph dur-ing the afternoon of the 9thand persisted until almost mid-night. Winds were evenstronger downwind of LakeErie with speeds of 50-70 mphwith gusts near 80 mph.
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Figure 7a and 7b: a) Observed surface low position near Erie PA at 8 pm November 9, 1913 (image courtesy
of Environment Canada); b) computer simulation of Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) valid at 8 pm
November 9, 1913.
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The emergence of advancedcomputer processing over thelast half century has revolution-ized weather forecasting byallowing real-time calculationsof weather patterns and seastates through these mathe-matical relationships. This hasallowed modern-day meteorol-ogists to predict weather pat-terns with a remarkable degreeof accuracy – provided theobserved weather, or “initialconditions”, can be accuratelymeasured and injected into thestart of the computer simula-tion.
One hundred years ago weath-er forecasters did not have theluxury of computer models, northe detailed surface and upper-air observations needed tomake the most accurate pre-dictions. The lack of observa-tions, especially upper air andsatellite-derived data, are also
4. A Retrospective
Computer
Simulation
Extreme weather events, likethe Great Lakes Storm ofNovember 7-11, 1913, provideunique challenges to meteo-rologists. They are usuallyrare events and often behavein ways that are not easilypredictable. Sometimes mete-orologists are able perform“forensic” studies of significantweather episodes in order tobetter understand how theyoccur and to gain greater con-text into the extreme condi-tions they produce. One of themost prominent tools in thesestudies is the computer model.Atmospheric and oceanicmotions of air and water aregoverned by highly complexphysical processes that canbe described through mathe-matical relationships.
major obstacles to accuratelysimulating historic weatherepisodes like the Great Stormof 1913. Fortunately, within thelast decade, a group of meteo-rologists developed an ingen-ious method of estimatingupper atmospheric conditionsfor historical periods prior tothe advent of weather balloonand satellite observations. The20th Century ReanalysisProject (Compo, et.al. 2011)now provides us with an ade-quate representation of thestate of the atmosphere inearly November 1913 to pre-scribe “initial conditions” fromwhich to generate a computersimulation.
The main purpose of thenumerical model retrospectiveof the Great Storm of 1913was to gain insights into thetiming and severity of the con-ditions experienced by GreatLakes mariners.A
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Of particular interest werewave conditions, as severallarge boats were caughtunprepared for such extremeconditions. In any sort ofnumerical model simulation,there can be several sourcesof error and a perfect simula-tion is usually unattainable.This is especially true of a onehundred year retrospective.Nonetheless, even a less-than-perfect simulation affordsimportant context into whathappened and when.
This study leveraged the capa-bilities of the WeatherResearch and Forecast (WRF)modeling system (Skamarock,et. al. 2005) to produce adetailed reconstruction ofatmospheric conditions; andthe NOAA Great LakesEnvironmental ResearchLaboratory – Donelan WaveModel (GDM) to reconstructthe resultant sea state(Schwab, et. al. 1984). TheGDM wave model was config-ured using a 5km rectangulargrid on all of the Great Lakesto simulate the wave condi-tions during the November1913 storm. Surface wind andtemperature output from theWRF atmospheric simulationwas used as inputs to drive thewave model simulation.
The GDM provides approxima-tions for significant waveheight (average of the highest⅓), dominant wave period, andwind wave direction. A clima-tological average of lake sur-face water temperature wasalso used in the GDM simula-tions. Finally, as a companion
Figure 8: Statistical wave height distribution; "peak" or "maximum"
waves defined as the average of the highest 5% in the distribution
(image courtesy of The COMET Program).
ern United States. By 8 am EST Sunday, November 9th,the storms merged into onelarge system centered nearWashington D.C. and the simu-lation reasonably capturedboth the location of the lowand the central pressure(Figure 6). Just 12 hours later,the storm reached its mostintense period (969 hPa/28.60inches central pressure nearErie, PA). The low deepened31 hPa in 24 hours as itmoved northward toward theGreat Lakes, making this atrue “meteorological bomb”(Sanders et. al. 1980).
At this point, strong high pres-sure over southern Canadaand the northern U.S. Plainscreated a very strong pressuregradient across the GreatLakes region resulting in hurri-cane force wind gusts.“Meteorological bombs” are rel-atively rare events, but thecomputer simulation matches
calculation, an estimate of theaverage highest 5th percentilewave height from wave energydistribution (Thornton, et. al.1983) is produced to charac-terize reasonably observed“peak” or “maximum” waveconditions (Figure 8). Thereturn frequency of the peakwave is also calculated basedupon the dominant wave peri-od and the statistical occur-rence of the average highest5th percentile wave. Thereturn frequency gives an esti-mate of how frequently shipsexperienced larger waves dur-ing the storm.
a. Evaluating the
Computer
Simulation
The “White Hurricane” simula-tion starts just prior to the timethe new southern storm andthe “Clipper” storm phase intoone large storm over the eastA
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Simulated Wind
and Wave
Conditions
Although the Great Storm of1913 was essentially a 4 dayevent, the wind and wave sim-ulation results will focus on themost intense 18 hour period ofthe storm from roughly 1 pmEST Sunday, November 9th to7 am EST, Monday, November10th (Figures 9-11).
In fall, the waters of the GreatLakes try to hold their summerwarmth. When cold air passesover warmer water, the waterreleases heat into the atmos-phere making the boundarylayer above the water unstablewith respect to verticalmotions. When this happens,mixing processes occur withinthe boundary layer and bringstronger winds aloft downwardto near the water surface. Thisfrequent combination helpsgive rise to the “Gales ofNovember”, when surfacewinds in fall storms are muchstronger over water than theywould otherwise be in a normalstable flow over the water.
By November 9th, 1913, arcticair had spread over all butLake Ontario, and in manylocations near blizzard condi-tions were raging over anddownwind of the Great Lakes.Eventually, places like PortHuron MI downwind of LakeHuron and Cleveland OH,downwind of both Lake Huronand Lake Erie, would seestorm total snowfalls up to 2 ft,with drifts as high as 4-5 ft.
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reality fairly well, placing thelow center between Erie PAand Buffalo NY and strength-ening it to a central pressureof 974 hPa/28.76 inches(Figure 7). In the subsequent12 hours (8 pm Sunday,November 9th to 8 amMonday, November 10th), thestorm barely moved northwhile maintaining its strength.At 8 am Monday, the stormwas centered just north ofToronto ON with a centralpressure near 975 hPa/28.79inches. The computer simula-tion was slightly west of thatlocation with a forecast centralpressure of 972 hPa/28.70inches. After an incredibleperiod of hurricane force gustslasting anywhere from 10-20hours, the storm finally beganto weaken on Monday eveningand move to the northeasttoward central Quebec.
Again, the computer simula-tion was quite accurate in cap-turing the strength and loca-tion of the storm center as itmoved northward acrossVirginia, Pennsylvania, andsouthwest Ontario. This isremarkable for a 100 year ret-rospective simulation. Theabsence of upper air andsatellite observations make itdifficult to prescribe upperatmospheric conditions neces-sary for a viable simulation,yet the model appears to haveperformed well in this case.This gives confidence that thewind and wave conditionsderived from the simulation willbe representative of whatmariners actually encountered100 years ago.
Early on November 9th, GaleForce winds were alreadyblowing across all of the upperlakes, as they had for nearlytwo continuous days prior. Butunknown to everyone, condi-tions were about to rapidlydeteriorate into a “WhiteHurricane”.
The computer simulationallows us to view, on an hour-by-hour basis, the details ofhow quickly the storm intensi-fied and how bad conditionsmay have gotten; resulting in 9ships sinking with over 200lives lost in the 6 hour periodfrom 6 pm EST, November 9ththrough Midnight EST,November 10th (Figure 1).This 6 hour period has beendescribed by many as one ofthe deadliest weather events inNorth American history. Of the9 ships lost during those 6hours, 8 were lost on LakeHuron with 187 on-board.
From 8 am to 8 pm onNovember 9th, the storm cen-ter moved acrossPennsylvania in a north-north-westerly direction ending upover eastern Lake Erie bySunday (9th) evening. Theatmospheric simulationshowed Lake Huron northerlywinds sustained at 20-25 knotsand gusts to around 40 kts at10 am (Figure 9), but buildingto 35-40 kts gusting to 50-55kts by 4 pm EST Sunday(Figure 10). During the sametime frame the GDM wavemodel simulation indicatedwaves building to a robust 12to 18 ft. During the daySunday, many ships were
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Figure 9a-b: Computer simulated surface wind and wind gusts valid at 10 am EST November 9, 2013.
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making their final runs of theyear through Lake Huroneither downbound from SaultSte. Marie or upbound fromPort Huron and may havebeen misled concerning theimminent threat by the margin-al Gale conditions during themorning hours. Indeed, after 4pm, November 9th, windswere predicted in the comput-er simulation to build to wide-spread hurricane force gusts –and by 10 pm, north-north-westerly winds sustained at45-50 kts with gusts to over 70kts were predicted over LakeHuron. The wave model pre-dicted significant waves to 16ft at 6 pm with peak waves to24 ft. But, just 6 hours later,by midnight on the 10th, signif-icant waves were predicted to24 ft with peak waves exceed-ing 36 ft near the tip of thethumb in Lake Huron.
With seas running north tosouth, the dominant wave peri-od estimated by the model wasaround 10 seconds. Thismeans waves were very steep(as is common in the GreatLakes), and according to wavetheory the “return frequency”on maximum or peak waveswould have been between 3and 3 ½ minutes (Figure 10k-
l). Waves to 24 ft at least onceper minute and to 36 ft every 3minutes would have provided atremendous pounding to eventhe largest ships on the lakesat that time. Those caught in awave trough would have beenin great danger of rolling andcapsizing. At least 2 of theships that sank on the eveningof November 9th, were foundlying upside down at the bot-tom of Lake Huron. In that 6hour period from 600 pm onthe 9th until midnight on the
10th, the following ships werelost along with over 200 crew;The Argus (436 ft, built in1905), James C. Carruthers
(550 ft, built in 1913), Hydrus
(436 ft, built in 1903), John A.
McGean (432 ft, built in 1908),Charles S. Price (504 ft, builtin 1910), Isaac M. Scott (504ft, built in 1909), The Wexford
(250 ft), The Regina (269 ft),and the Henry B. Smith (loston Lake Superior, 525 ft, builtin 1906). Many other shipswere severely damaged ordestroyed during the stormwhen they were driven ashoreby high seas.
After midnight on November10th, the highest winds andwaves in the computer simula-tion moved westward into east-ern Lake Superior and LakeMichigan. Between midnightand 7 am, wind gusts over 70 A
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Figure 10a-f: Surface wind gusts and
"maximum" wave height on Lake Huron
valid at 4 pm EST, 6 pm EST, 8 pm EST
November 9, 1913.
Figure 10g-j: Surface wind gusts and "maxi-
mum" wave height over Lake Huron valid at 10
pm Nov. 9 and midnight Nov. 10. Figure 10k:
Dominant wave period (seconds). Figure 10l:
"Maximum" wave return frequency (seconds).
Figure 11a-b:
Computer sim-
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winds and
gusts valid
4am EST
November 10,
1913.
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kts were indicated over thetwo lakes, with maximumwaves projected as high as 36ft near Pictured Rocks on theMichigan shore of LakeSuperior (Figure 11). At 430am, the Harvester, a new 525ft freighter which survived thestorm, estimated wind gusts tonear 100 mph (86 kts) on LakeSuperior just west ofMichipicaten Island.Throughout the day on the10th, winds and waves wereprojected to remain high overall of the lakes, especiallyLake Erie where strong south-westerlies roared down thelong axis of the lake. At 2 pmEST a wind gust to 80 mph(70 kts) was recorded inBuffalo NY. Monday eveningand into Tuesday the 11th, thelow gradually weakenedmoved off to the northeast andwinds and waves graduallybegan to decrease.
Given the results of the simu-lation, survivor estimates ofwind gusts during the stormaround 90 mph or greaterwere not unreasonable.Likewise, survivor estimates ofwaves as high as 35 ft werealso supported by the simula-tion. Moreover, during a criticalperiod from Sunday afternoonon November 9, 1913, to mid-night on Monday, November10th, 1913, it was shown thatwinds and wave heights dra-matically increased to levelsthat were extremely dangerousto even the largest and mostrobust ships in the GreatLakes fleet. From 1 pm to 9pm on November 9th, windgusts were predicted by the
model toincrease from 45 knotsto over 70 knots, and peakwave heights likely doubled inheight to 36 ft between 6 pmand midnight that evening. Themaximum values appear tohave occurred mostly overLake Huron in the areabetween Alpena MI to nearGrand Bend ON – coincidingwith the area where most shipsfoundered or were forcedashore by high seas. Shipsattempting to find shelter bycrossing westward intoSaginaw Bay on the evening ofNovember 9th were likely metwith some of the worst condi-tions of the storm.
Analysis of the computer simu-lation makes it easy to see thedisadvantages mariners of theearly 20th century faced com-pared to modern times.Advances in communication,meteorological knowledge, andcomputer technology make itunlikely such a marine disastercould happen today.
5. Modern Marine
Forecasting and
Communications
Mariners on the Great Lakestoday have access to highspeed, wireless satellite andcellular communications whichallow them to access observedand forecast weather informa-tion in real-time. As weatherforecasts or conditions change,mariners learn about it veryquickly. National WeatherService Marine Forecasts areupdated at least four times perday and extend out to fivedays. These forecasts are
available in a variety of for-mats, including traditional textand graphic presentations.Marine “headlines” includingGale Warnings and StormsWarnings are still used butGale Watches and StormWatches are now issued withgreater lead time prior to theonset of these conditions.Also, Heavy Freezing SprayWatches and Warnings arenow available to highlight therisk for heavy ice accumulationon ships.
a. Advanced
Forecasting
Technology
Forecasters have access toboth observed weather infor-mation, as well as computergenerated guidance that allowsthem to monitor conditionsacross the Lakes in real-timeand to more quickly and accu-rately assess how conditionswill change. Some of theseobservational and forecasttools include:
1) A network of highly sophisti-cated Doppler Radars (WSR-88D) maintained by NOAA.These radars constantly scanthe skies for developingstorms, allowing mariners tosee these storms as they form.
2) NOAA satellites high abovethe earth’s surface sendimages of cloud structures,thunder storms, hurricanes,and other developing storms tothe ground. The first weathersatellites were launched in1960.
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1) Building relationships with avariety of external partnersincluding the United StatesCoast Guard, Lake CarriersAssociation, the internationalShipmasters Association, andlocal yacht and sailing clubs.
2) Familiarization Floats andship visits which allow fore-casters to meet with crewsaboard various vessels to dis-cuss weather and forecastimpacts.
3) Finally, given advancementsin technology, communication,and coordination betweenmeteorologists and the marinecommunity – were the GreatStorm of 1913 to happentoday, mariners wouldundoubtedly be safer thanthey were 100 years ago.
Official warnings, watches,forecasts and other hazardinformation is broadcast 24hours a day, 7 days a week.NWR includes approximately1000 transmitters, many ofwhich are located around theGreat Lakes and are easilyaccessible by mariners.
In addition to its scientific andtechnical capabilities, theNational Weather Service hasbeen working to raise aware-ness of the needs of themarine community and to bet-ter understand what informa-tion is needed to make opera-tional decisions on the GreatLakes. This is being accom-plished through:
3) Sophisticated NumericalWeather Prediction (NWP)models perform a myriad ofcalculations based onobserved weather conditionsand known theory of atmos-pheric processes to create aforecast of various weatherparameters. Some modelsfocus on the first few hours orfirst few days of the forecastwhile others extend out tomore than 7 days.Forecasters combine NWPoutput with current observedconditions, conceptual under-standing of various weatherpatterns, and past experienceto develop forecasts.
4) Frequent observations frombuoys, shore-based platforms,and a volunteer network ofweath er observations (VOS)taken aboard freighters, tugs,and other vessels. In theGreat Lakes alone, the VOSprogram has grown from11,297 observations in 2001to 27,136 observations peryear in 2010.
b. Infrastructure &
Public
Engagement
NOAA Weather ForecastOffices are located throughoutthe Great Lakes region, andare staffed around the clockby highly trained professionalswhose job it is to monitor andpredict how weather condi-tions will change on the GreatLakes. NOAA Weather Radio(NWR)is a nationwide networkof radio stations broadcastingcontinuous weather informa-tion directly from NWS offices.
Figure 12: Capsized Charles S. Price in the wake of the storm (image
is public domain in the United States)
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Acknowledgements
Rebecca Wagner, Environment Canada Ontario Storm Prediction Center, Downsview ON
Maria Latyszewskyj, Environment Canada Library Services, Downsview ON
Jennifer Day, NOAA Great Lakes Regional Coordinator, Ann Arbor MI
Cathy Darnell, NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Lab, Ann Arbor MI
References
Brown, D.G., 2002: White Hurricane – A Great Lakes November Gale and America’s DeadliestMaritime Disaster; McGraw-Hill 244 pp.
Compo, G.P., et.al., 2011: “The 20th century reanalysis project”. Quarterly J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc.,137, 1-28. DOI: 10.1002/qj.776
Hemming, R.J., 1992: Ships Gone Missing – The Great Lakes Storm of 1913; ContemporaryBooks 192 pp.
Sanders, Frederick; Gyakum, John R. (1980). "Synoptic-Dynamic Climatology of the "Bomb"".Monthly Weather Review 108 (10): 1589–1606.
Schwab, D.J., J.R. Bennett, and E.W. Lynn, 1984: A two-dimensional lake wave prediction system.NOAA Technical Memorandum ERL GLERL-51, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory,Ann Arbor, MI (PB84-231034) 77 pp.
Skamarock, W. C., et.al., 2005: A description of the advanced research WRF Version 2. NCARTech Notes-468+STR
Thornton, E. B., R. T. Guza, 1983: “Transformation of wave height distribution”, J. Geophys. Res.,88C10, 5925–5938.
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Shipwreck: MORMACPINEBy Skip Gillham
Photo: MORMACPINE is shown transiting the Welland Canal during October 1965 in a photo by Jim Kidd,
courtesy of Ron Beaupre.
The enemy claimed a heavy toll on Allied ship-ping during the battles of World War Two.Danger lurked from above, on and beneath thesurface of the seas and oceans as aircraft, bat-tleships and submarines sought to inflict heavydamage and claim numerous targets.
The United States sought to augment the fleetof ships needed to carry supplies, militaryequipment, fuel and personnel to the warzones. The first standard class of cargo carri-ers were the Liberty Ships and these were veryuseful in the early years of America's participa-tion in the war. A new class of slightly larger,but much faster, vessels was designed and thefirst of these, called Victory Ships, was com-pleted in February 1944.
There were 531 Victory Ships built. Most werecargo carriers but some were modified asattack transports and others to carry troops.They were 455 ft long by 62 ft wide and couldhandle 10,850 tons of cargo.
Their big advantage over Liberty ships wasspeed as the Victories were powered by twosteam turbine engines. These ships were operat-ed by merchant sailors but also carried naval per-sonnel to maintain communications equipmentand handle the military duties that might cometheir way.
After the war, some of these vessels were sold toprivate interests, some were placed in the U.S.Reserve fleet and some went to U.S. Army serv-ice. Victory Ships were pulled from the Reservefleet for both the subsequent Korean and Vietnamconflicts.
The early Victory ships were named for alliedcountries, such as the Costa Rica Victory. Manyothers were named for American universities suchas the Brown Victory.
The latter vessel had been launched at Portland,Oregon, on February 23, 1945, and was ready forservice before the end of March.
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While owned by the United States Maritime Commission, it was operated on their behalf by theAlaska Packers Association and spent most, if not all, of its time on the Pacific.
In 1946, the ship moved under the management of the Moore-McCormack Lines and they werewell known for providing excellent service between U.S. Gulf Coast ports south to the West Indiesand South American destinations. When Moore-McCormack purchased Brown Victory in 1947, itwas renamed Mormacpine.
The vessel proved to be a good carrier for the company but also had one weather related and onefire related incident. The first occurred in the Strait of Juan de Fuca, off the west coast of theUnited States, on September 27, 1959. The ship was en route from San Pedro, CA, to Seattle, WAwhen it encountered a fog bank that quickly reduced visibility to under 1,000 yards.
The working radar did not pick up the 49 ft fishing boat Jane and by the time a watchman saw it,the inbound freighter, with the propeller thrashing full astern, crashed into the starboard side of thewooden vessel. It sank within minutes with the loss of two lives, including the Master, but three onboard were rescued.
Mormacpine was not damaged and, in 1960, made the first of at least thirteen voyages into theGreat Lakes through the then, year old, St. Lawrence Seaway. The vessel often delivered generalcargo before loading grain for the outbound passage.
Fifty years ago this spring, on March 27, 1964, fire broke out in the cargo hold while Mormacpine was bound for Bermuda. The blaze was contained and the U.S. Coast Guard shipHalf Moon, escorted the ship to port and safety.
Mormacpine carried on in service until a sale to Taiwanese shipbreakers in 1970. It arrived at theport of Kaohsiung on July 18 and was broken up for scrap by the Tong Cheng Steel ManufacturingCo.
Three Victory Ships, Lane Victory, American Victory and Red Oak Victory survive as museumships.
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Practical Formulas for Estimating Winds and
Waves during a Tropical Cyclone
Professor S. A. Hsu, Louisiana State University,email: [email protected]
Abstract: Practical formulas for estimating winds and waves generated by a tropical cyclone arepresented. These equations have been verified for Atlantic and eastern Pacific hurricanes and west-ern Pacific typhoons when the measurements are available. During the validation process, it isfound that the radius of tropical storm, R34 kt, can be used as a surrogate for the fetch parameterin wave estimation.
1. Introduction
For the safety ofship operations,mariners mustknow the dangerof strong windsand high waves,particular duringa tropicalcyclone. Whilethe forecasts ofwinds and wavesare availablefrom numericalpredictions, it isprudent for themariners to havesome practicalknowledge toestimate thesehigh winds andwaves ratherthan relying onthe forecast guid-ance totally. Thepurpose of thisarticle is to pro-vide such knowl-edge. The dataused are basedon Powell andReinhold (2007)as provided inTable 1.
Table 1. Validations of Equations (1), (4) and (6) based on data provided in Powell and Reinhold (2007). Pmin is the minimum sea-level pressure, Vmax is the maximum wind, R34kt is the radius of 34 kts, and Hs is the maximum significant wave height.
Hurricanes Year Month Pmin Vmax Vmax R34 kt Hs, m Hs, m
Day mb m/s m/s, Eq.1 km Eq.4 Eq. 6 Andrew 1992 24-Aug 922 68 60 191 15 18 Camille 1969 18-Aug 909 65 64 230 16 21 Charley 2004 13-Aug 941 63 53 156 13 14 Dennis 2005 10-Jul 946 51 52 296 14 13 Emily 2005 20-Jul 948 54 51 291 15 13
Fabian 2003 5-Sep 941 51 53 380 16 14 Frances 2004 5-Sep 960 46 46 319 13 11
Hugo 1989 22-Sep 934 58 56 317 17 16 Iris 2001 9-Oct 948 43 51 165 9 13
Isabel 2003 18-Sep 957 47 47 532 17 11 Ivan (AL) 2004 16-Sep 946 49 52 326 14 13
Ivan (Jamaica) 2004 11-Sep 925 70 59 314 20 18
Jeanne 2004 26-Sep 950 46 50 317 13 13 Katrina
(FL) 2005 25-Aug 984 33 34 115 6 6
Katrina (LA) 2005 29-Aug 920 52 61 454 18 19
Katrina Peak Wind 2005 28-Aug 909 71 64 349 21 21
Keith (Belize) 2000 1-Oct 959 50 46 154 10 11
Michelle 2001 4-Nov 949 50 50 335 15 13 Opal 1995 4-Oct 942 50 53 353 15 14 Rita 2005 24-Sep 937 49 55 357 15 15
Wilma Peak Wind 2005 19-Oct 892 62 69 326 18 24
Wilma (FL) 2005 24-Oct 951 51 50 380 16 12
Wilma (Mexico) 2005 22-Oct 930 59 57 394 19 17
24
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To estimate the maximum wind induced by a tropical cyclone, Equation (1) can be applied (for deri-vation, see Hsu, 2005).
Vmax = 6.3 (1013 – Pmin) ^ (1/2) (1)
Where Vmax is the maximum wind in m/s and Pmin is the minimum sea-level pressure in mb.
Validation of Eq. (1) is shown in Figure 1. If we accept that the correlation coefficient R (=0.82) isreasonable based on those diversified hurricanes and that the estimated Vmax is nearly identical tothat provided by Powell and Reinhold (2007) as listed in Table 1, Eq. (1) should be very useful forpractical applications. Note that Eq. (1) is also used in Simpson and Riehl (1981, p.278). In 2013, Liet al (2013) provided a dataset covering tropical cyclones over both Atlantic and North PacificOceans. This dataset is also employed for our verification of Eq. (1), which is presented in Figure.
2. Since the R value (=0.89) is even higher than that of Figure. 1 and the estimated Vmax valuesagain are nearly identical to those as listed in Li et al (2013) , we can say that Eq. (1) is a practicalformula to use.
25
Figure1. A verification of Eq. (1) based on data provided in Table 1
The wind speed at the distance, r, from the Vmax has also been derived and verified in Hsu (2005)as follows:
Vr = Vmax *(Rmax/r) ^ (1/2) (2)
Rmax/r = Ln ((1013 – Pmin)/ (Pr – Pmin)) (3) Where Vr is the wind speed at the distance r where the pressure is Pr. The symbol “Ln” stands fornatural logarithm.
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Figure 2. Further validation of Eq. (1) based on the data provided in Li et al. (2013)
3. Estimating Hurricane Waves
According to Hsu (2005), the maximum wave height induced by a tropical storm is
Hsmax = 0.2 (1013 – Pmin) (4)
Where Hsmax is the maximum significant wave height in meters.A verification of Eq. (3) is provided in Hsu (2006) for Atlantic hurricanes. In the western Pacific, dur-ing Super Typhoon Krosa in 2007, a buoy recorded the maximum trough-to-crest wave height of32.3m near the north-east Taiwan (Liu et al, 2008) near the typhoon center of 929hPa (based onthe Annual Cyclone Report issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, JYWC). According toWMO (1998), the significant wave height is approximately 32.3/1.9 = 17m. Since Pmin was 929hPaand from Eq. (4), we have 16.8m.This value is in excellent agreement with the measured value of17m. Therefore, Eq. (4) is now further validated during a super typhoon. In addition, Eq. (4) is usedto compare with a numerical model to estimate the significant wave height generated by TyphoonMuifa in the South China Sea. Good agreement was found (See Chu and Chen, 2008).
According to the Shore Protection Manual (see USACE, 1984),
Hs = 0.016 Vr*(F) ^ (1/2) (5)
Where Hs is the significant wave height at the fetch F. The unit for Hs is in meters, Vr in m/s and Fin kilometer.
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Now, if we use the radius of the tropical storm (at 34 kts), or R34 kt, as a surrogate for the fetchparameter F, we have
Hsmax = 0.016 Vmax *(R34kt) ^0.5 (6)
Where the unit of R34 kt is in km. If R34 kt is in nautical mile (nm), it needs to be converted to km,since one nm is approximately 1.85 km. Since R34kt is provided in the warning advisories byJTWC, it can now be incorporated into Eq. (6) to estimate the maximum significant wave height inmeters. According to the advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the radius oftropical storm force winds, R34 kt or R18m/s, is available in miles. Then, one needs to convert it tokm by using one mile = 1.61 km.
Now, on the basis of Table 1, a validation of Equations (4) and (6) is provided in Figure 2, whichillustrates that both formulas are nearly identical.
Figure 3. A relationship between Equations (4) and (6)
Now, returning to Table 1, we see that the Hsmax (=21m) was induced by Katrina. Since therewere no on-site measurements, the numerical simulations by Wang and Oey (2008, Figure 6, leftpanel for 22m and right panel for 20m by NCEP) are adopted. Their results showed that the Hsmaxwas between 20 and 22m, which are in good agreement with our results of 21m as shown in Table
1. Therefore, Eq. (4) can be used if Pmin is available. On the other hand, Eq. (6) can be applied ifboth Vmax and R 34kt are known.
According to Hsu et al. (2000), the waves at the distance, r, away from Rmax is
Hs = Hsmax (1.06 -0.11/ (Rmax/r)) (7)Note that the parameter (Rmax/r) can be calculated from Eq. (3).A validation of Eq. (7) during Hurricane Katrina in 2005 is provided in Hsu (2006).
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5. Conclusions
Several conclusions can be drawn from aforementioned study:
(a) to estimate the maximum wind generated by a tropical cyclone, use Eq. (1);(b) for the wind speed away from the radius of max wind, use Eqs. (2) and (3);(c) to estimate the maximum significant wave height, use Eqs. (3) or (6); (d) for the significant wave height away from the radius of max wind, use Eq. (7); and (e) the most important finding is to use the radius of tropical storm force winds available
routinely in the advisories issued by NHC or JTWC as a surrogate for the fetch parameter in wave estimations, since the “fetch” is difficult to determine for practical applications.
References:
Chu, P. C. and Chen, K.-F., 2008, South China Sea wave characteristics during Typhoon Muifa pas-sage in Winter 2004, Journal of Oceanography, 64, pp.1-21.
Hsu, S. A., Martin, M. F., Jr., and Blanchard, B. W., An evaluation of the USACE’s deepwater waveprediction techniques under hurricane conditions during Georges in 1998, Journal of CoastalResearch, 16(3), 823 - 829, 2000.
Hsu, S. A., 2005, “Air-Sea Interaction”. In Water Encyclopedia, Vol. 4, pp. 1 - 4, Wiley -Interscience.
Hsu, S. A., 2006, Nowcasting the significant wave height during a hurricane, Mariners Weather Log,Vol. 50, No. 3, pp. 6 - 7, December 2006. Also available online athttp://www.vos.noaa.gov/mwl.shtml.
Li, X., Zhang, J. A., Yang, X., Pichel, W. G., DeMaria, M., Long, D., and Li, Z., 2013, Tropicalcyclone morphology from spaceborne synthetic aperture radar. Bulletin, American MeteorologicalSociety, 94(2), February, pp.215- 230.
Liu, P.C., Chen, H.S., Doong, D.-J., Kao, C.C.., and Hsu, Y.-J. G., 2008, Monstrous ocean wavesduring typhoon Krosa, Annales Geophysicae, 26, pp.1327-1329.
Powell, M. D. and Reinhold, T. A., 2007, Tropical cyclone destructive potential by integrated kineticenergy. Bulletin, American Meteorological Society, 88(4), April, pp.513-526.Simpson, R. H. and Riehl, H. 1981, The Hurricane and Its Impact, Louisiana State University, BatonRouge, LA.
U.S.Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), 1984. Shore Protection Manual, Vicksburg, Mississippi, pp.3-48 and 3-81 to 3-84.
Wang, D.-P. , and Oey, L.-Y., 2008, Hindcast of waves and currents in Hurricane Katrina. Bulletin,American Meteorological Society, 89(4), April, pp.487-495.
World Meteorological Organization (WMO), 1998. Guide to Wave Analysis and Forecasting (2nd
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Mean Circulation Highlights and
Climate AnomaliesSeptember through December 2013
Anthony Artusa, Meteorologist, Operations Branch,Climate Prediction Center NCEP/NWS/NOAZ
All anomalies reflect departures fromthe 1981-2010 base period.September-October 2013
The 500 hPa circulation during September fea-tured above average heights over central NorthAmerica, the central North Atlantic, Scandinavia,and the western North Pacific. It also featuredbelow average heights over the Gulf of Alaska,just off the East Coast of the United States, theCaspian Sea/Black Sea region, and north cen-tral Asia (Figure 1). Interestingly, the sea levelpressure (SLP) pattern was substantially differ-ent from the mid-tropospheric circulation pattern(Figure 2). Above average SLP was observedover northern Scandinavia and much of theRussian side of the Arctic Ocean. Below aver-age SLP was observed over the Gulf of Alaska,western Russia, and eastern Siberia.
The October 500 hPa circulation featured azonal wave 4 pattern of height anomalies(Figure 3). This pattern included above averageheights over the Gulf of Alaska, theMediterranean Sea, and eastern Asia, andbelow-average heights over the high latitudes ofthe central North Pacific, the western contiguousU.S., the central North Atlantic and centralRussia. The SLP map depicts the more intenseanomalies pole ward of about 50N (Figure 4).Above average SLP was observed over the Gulfof Alaska, and below average SLP prevailedover the central North Atlantic, north-centralRussia, and the Bering Sea.
Caption for 500 hPa Heights and Anomalies: Figures 1,3,5,7Northern Hemisphere mean and anomalous 500-hPa geopotential height (CDAS/Reanalysis). Mean heightsare denoted by solid contours
drawn at an interval of 6 dam. Anomaly contour interval is indicated byshading. Anomalies are calculated as departures from the 1981-2010base period monthly means.
Caption for Sea-Level Pressure and Anomaly: Figures 2,4,6,8 Northern Hemisphere mean and anomaloussea level pressure(CDAS/Reanalysis). Mean values are denoted by solid contours drawn at an interval of 4hPa. Anomaly contour interval is indicated by shad-
ing. Anomalies are calculated as departures from the1981-2010 base period monthly means.
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The Tropics
Sea surface temperatures (SST) remainednear average across the central and east-cen-tral equatorial Pacific and below average inthe eastern equatorial Pacific during bothSeptember and October. The latest monthlyNino 3.4 indices were -0.1C (September) and -0.3C (October), well within ENSO-neutral terri-tory. The depth of the 20C isotherm (oceanicthermocline) remained near average acrossthe central and east-central equatorial Pacificduring this two month period. Equatorial lowlevel easterly trade winds remained near aver-age across the equatorial Pacific (Septemberand October), and tropical convection wasslightly enhanced over Indonesia during thissame two month period, and suppressed overthe central equatorial Pacific (September).These oceanic and atmospheric anomaliescollectively reflect a continuation of ENSO-neutral conditions.
November-December 2013
The 500 hPa circulation during Novemberfeatured below average heights throughoutthe polar region, and a zonal wave 3 patternof height anomalies in the middle latitudes(Figure 5). This wave 3 pattern reflectedabove average heights over the high latitudesof the North Pacific, the eastern NorthAtlantic, western and central Russia, andbelow average heights over eastern North
America, Europe and Japan. The sea levelpressure and anomaly map (Figure 6) gener-ally mirrors the 500 hPa pattern.
The month of December was characterizedby above average heights across the high lat-itudes of the North Pacific, northeastern Asia,the Gulf of Alaska, the central North Atlantic,and Europe (Figure 7). It also featured belowaverage heights across the western NorthPacific, eastern Canada, and the high lati-tudes of the North Atlantic. The SLP andanomaly field (Figure 8) largely mirrored themiddle tropospheric circulation pattern.
The Tropics
ENSO-neutral conditions continued duringNovember and December 2013. Sea surfacetemperatures (SST) remained near averageacross the central and east central equatorialPacific, and (in November) below average inthe eastern equatorial Pacific.
Caption for 500 hPa Heights and Anomalies: Figures 1,3,5,7Northern Hemisphere mean and anomalous 500-hPa geopotential height(CDAS/Reanalysis). Mean heightsare denoted by solid contours drawn
at an interval of 6 dam. Anomaly contour interval is indicated byshading.Anomalies are calculated as departures from the 1981-2010 base period
monthly means.
Caption for Sea-Level Pressure and Anomaly: Figures 2,4,6,8 NorthernHemisphere mean and anomaloussea level pressure
(CDAS/Reanalysis). Mean values are denoted by solid contours drawnat an interval of 4hPa. Anomaly contour interval is indicated by shading.Anomalies are calculated as departures from the1981-2010 base period
monthly means.
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The latest monthly Nino 3.4 indices were 0.0C for both months. The depth of the 20C isotherm(oceanic thermocline) remained near average in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.Equatorial low level easterly trade winds remained near average across the central and easternequatorial Pacific, and above average over the western equatorial Pacific. Equatorial low leveleasterly trade winds remained near average across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific,and above average over the western equatorial Pacific. Tropical convection remained enhancedover Indonesia and suppressed over the central equatorial Pacific.
Caption for 500 hPa Heights and Anomalies: Figures 1,3,5,7Northern Hemisphere mean and anomalous 500-hPa geopotential height (CDAS/Reanalysis). Mean heightsare denoted by solid contours
drawn at an interval of 6 dam. Anomaly contour interval is indicated byshading. Anomalies are calculated as departures from the 1981-2010base period monthly means.
Caption for Sea-Level Pressure and Anomaly: Figures 2,4,6,8 Northern Hemisphere mean and anomaloussea level pressure(CDAS/Reanalysis). Mean values are denoted by solid contours drawn at an interval of 4hPa. Anomaly contour interval is indicated by shad-
ing. Anomalies are calculated as departures from the1981-2010 base period monthly means.
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References
1. Personal Communication with Dr. Christopher Landsea, Science and Operations Officer,National Hurricane Center, Miami, Florida, January 29, 2014.
Much of the information used in this article originates from the Climate Diagnostics Bulletinarchive:(http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CDB/CDB_Archive_html/CDB_archive.shtml)
On November 8, 2013, Super typhoon Haiyanmoved across the Philippines, resulting in theloss of thousands of lives, and causing tremen-dous damage. From a meteorological perspec-tive, the preliminary numbers on this cyclonesuggest Haiyan may have been one of thestrongest tropical cyclones ever recorded.However, as of this writing, significant discrep-ancies exist between the peak sustained (1-minute average) wind speeds estimated by theJapanese Meteorological Agency (143 kts) andthose estimated by the Joint Typhoon WarningCenter in Guam (169 kts); due to differences ininterpretation of satellite imagery as no directmeasurements were available from aircraftreconnaissance Reference 1.
The preliminary value for the minimum centralpressure currently stands at 895 hPa. Thisissue is expected to be officially resolved verysoon by the various Meteorological Centers inthis region. For comparison purposes, TyphoonTip (1979) had the lowest recorded centralpressure ever measured in a typhoon (870hPa) and peak sustained 1-minute averagewinds in the 165-170 kt range. In the Atlanticbasin, Wilma (2005) holds the minimum SLPrecord at 882 hPa, and, along with hurricanesAllen (1980) and Camille (1969), had similarpeak sustained wind speeds in the 160-165 ktrange.
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Marine Weather Review – North Atlantic AreaSeptember through December 2013
By George P. BancroftOcean Forecast Branch, Ocean Prediction Center, College Park, MD
NOAA National Center for Environmental Prediction
Introduction
The fall to early winter periodof September to December2013 featured mainly a pro-gressive and increasinglyactive pattern of developingcyclones moving from south-west to northeast across theNorth Atlantic, with cyclonesless frequently taking a morenortherly track toward theDavis Strait, and even less fre-quent, a southeastward trackfrom north of Iceland.Beginning in late Octobereighteen lows developed hurri-cane force winds detected bysatellite, conventional surfaceobservations, or model data.Ten of these occurred inDecember, and five cyclonesdeveloped central pressuresbelow 950 hPa.
The four month period includesthe last half of the hurricaneseason in the Atlantic basin. Itturned out to be a quiet sea-son with no hurricanes formingor moving into OPC’s marinearea north of 31N. Tropicalactivity occurring north of 31Nincluded three tropical stormsand one unnamed subtropicalstorm. One of these,Humberto, was a hurricanesouth of 31N early inSeptember but moved north of31N as a weakening tropicalstorm in mid September. More
complete information on tropi-cal cyclones including activitysouth of 31N may be found inthe National Hurricane Centerwebsite (2013 Tropical CycloneReports) listed in theReferences.
Tropical Activity
Tropical Storm Gabrielle:
Gabrielle formed from a non-tropical low near 27N 65W at0000 UTC September 10thwhich moved north andbecame a tropical storm 30N65W the next morning withmaximum sustained winds of35 kts. Gabrielle reached maxi-mum strength on the eveningof the 10th with maximum sus-tained winds of 50 kts whilepassing near Bermuda. Thecyclone then continued on anorthward track as mostly a 40kts then 35 kts tropical stormfrom the morning of the 11ththrough the night of the 12th,before being downgraded to atropical depression while pass-ing near 38N 66W on themorning of the 13th, with maxi-mum sustained winds of 30kts. The Caribbean Princess
(ZCDG8) reported south windsof 35 kts and 2.4 m seas (8 ft)near 41N 64W at 0600 UTC onthe 13th. Gabrielle became apost tropical low while passingnear Halifax the following
evening before merging with afront early on the 14th.
Tropical Storm Humberto:
The second named tropicalcyclone of the period movednorth into OPC’s high seaswaters as a weakening tropicalstorm, passing near 31N 44Won the morning of September18th with maximum sustainedwinds of 35 kts. Humbertoweakened to a tropical depres-sion twenty four hours laterwhen passing near 33N 44Wwith sustained winds of 30 kts.The cyclone then turned towardthe northeast and became posttropical the following eveningwhile passing near 34N 43W,before merging with a front inthe central North Atlantic on theafternoon of the 20th.
Tropical Storm Melissa:
A non tropical gale force lowformed at the end of a south-west to northeast oriented frontnear 21N 54W at 0000 UTCNovember 17th and movednorth while intensifying, anddeveloped subtropical charac-teristics just south of OPC’smarine area near 29N 54W onthe morning of the 18th. It wasnamed Subtropical StormMelissa at that time, with a 987hPa central pressure and maxi-mum sustained winds of 45 kts.
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Melissa moved north northwestover the following twenty fourhours and developed a maxi-mum intensity of 55 kts for sus-tained winds as a subtropicalstorm while crossing 31N earlyon the 19th, with a centralpressure of 982 hPa. Thecyclone turned toward thenortheast on the night of the19th with top winds weakeningto 45 kts. Melissa then re-intensified as a tropical storm,passing near 36N 48W at 1500UTC on the 20th with maxi-mum sustained winds of 50kts. Tropical Storm Melissathen passed near 41N 32Wwith 55 kts sustained windsand a lowest central pressureof 980 hPa at 2100 UTCNovember 21st before weak-ening into a post tropical galethe following night, while pass-ing near 42N 28W. Blocked byhigh pressure to the northeast,Post tropical Melissa turnedtoward the southeast and con-tinued to weaken, before dissi-pating near the Strait ofGibraltar early on the 24th.
Unnamed Subtropical Storm:
A reanalysis after the event bythe National Hurricane Centerdetermined that a cutoff lowpressure system that formedsouth of the Azores Islands inearly December acquired sub-tropical characterisics and clas-sified it as a subtropical stormat 0000 UTC December 5thand through 0000 UTC on the7th. Figure 1 shows this sys-tem as a storm force extratropi-cal low with fronts at 0600 UTCon the 4th, and the second partof Figure 11 depicts the nearly
stationary cyclone thirty sixhours with fronts dissipated.Its convection became betterorganized by the 5th. Windswere strongest when it wasextratropical, with ASCATimagery revealing winds to 50kts in the west semicircle at2239 UTC December 3rd, andOceanSat-2 (OSCAT) imageryfrom 0052 UTC December 4threturning winds of 50 to 55 ktson the west and north sides.The cyclone subsequentlyweakened to a remnant low 90nm south of the Azores 0600UTC on the 7th and then dissi-pated as a trough north of theAzores later on the 7th.
Other Significant Events
of the Period
Northeastern Atlantic Storm,
September 14-16:
The strongest non-tropical lowof September originated nearthe southern Labrador coast at1800 UTC on the 13th andtracked northeast, becoming astorm with a lowest centralpressure of 961 hPa east ofIceland two days later (Figure
1). The central pressure fell 35hPa in the twenty four hourperiod ending at 1200 UTC onthe 15th. This is well above the24 hPa needed for a “bomb” at60N and, occurring early in theseason, is quite impressive.The ASCAT image in Figure 2
reveals a swath of gale tostorm force north to northwestwinds in the west semicircle ofthe low with the center east ofIceland. The cyclone weak-ened while turning toward thesoutheast the next day and
then on the 17th turned northwith winds below gale force.The center moved norththrough the Norwegian Sea bythe 20th.
North Atlantic Storm,
October 24-27:
The weather became quiteactive in late October and earlyNovember, producing severalhurricane force lows in closesuccession. The first of these,shown at maximum intensity inFigure 3, originated as a weaklow on the U.S. mid Atlanticcoast three days prior. Thecyclone rapidly intensified eastof Newfoundland on the 24thwith the central pressure lower-ing by 33 hPa in the twentyfour hour period ending at 1200UTC on the 25th. Windsincreased from gale force at1800 UTC on the 24th to hurri-cane force twelve hours later.Hibernia Platform (VEP717,46.7N 48.7W) reported south-east winds of 55 kts at 0900UTC on the 24th (anemomheight 139 m) and Modu
Henry Goodrich (YJQN7,46.7N 48.0W) encounteredsouthwest winds of 60 kts and4.6 m seas (15 ft) at 0000 UTCon the 25th. The Knorr (KCEJ)encountered west winds of 50kts near 54N 45W nine hourslater. An ASCAT (METOP-A)pass from 2252 UTC on the25th returned a swath of westwinds 50 to 60 kts on the southside and north to northeastwinds 50 to 55 kts on the north-west side near the southern tipof Greenland, similar to theimage in Figure 6 for theOctober 28-31 event. Hurricane
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force winds lasted until theafternoon of the 26th. The sys-tem weakened beginning onthe 26th while tracking eastnortheast. Figure 4 shows thecyclone passing north of theBritish Isles as a gale, andFigure 5 depicts the systeminland over Scandinavia twodays later.
Table 1. Selected ship and buoy observations taken during the Northeastern Atlantic/North Sea
storm of October 27-28, 2013
moving low. The cyclonequickly passed east of 10E andoff the chart area late on the28th.
North Atlantic Storm,
October 28-31:
Figure 5 shows this cyclonenear maximum intensity near
55 kts on the northwest sidenear the southern tip ofGreenland. The low bias ofASCAT at high wind speedsmeans that actual winds wereat least 65 kts. The weakeningcyclone subsequently passedsouth of Iceland on the 31stand east of Iceland late onNovember 1st (Figure 7).
Northeast Atlantic/North Sea
Storm, October 27-28:
Figures 3 and Figure 4 showthis developing storm movingas an open wave from south ofNova Scotia to its approach tothe British Isles over a two dayperiod. Eighteen hours later itwas in the North Sea near 56N6E with the central pressuredown to 968 hPa, a drop of 28hPa in twenty four hours. Shipreports and ASCAT imageryindicated a brief period of hurri-cane force winds over a smallarea south of the center on the28th. Table 1 lists the mostnotable ship and buoy reportsduring passage of this fast
the location of a similar cyclonefour days earlier. The lowestcentral pressure was 964 hPareached six hours earlier. Thecyclone originated as a newlow that formed in the Gulf ofMaine early on the 27th, andFigure 4 shows the cyclone asa rapidly intensifying gale overNova Scotia six hours later.The central pressure fell 29hPa in the twenty four hourperiod ending at 0000 UTC onthe 29th. Hurricane force windslasted from 0600 UTC until theafternoon of the 30th, afterwhich a weakening trend set in. The ASCAT image in Figure 6
reveals a swath of west winds50 to 60 kts south of the centerand north to northeast winds to
Northeastern Atlantic Storm,
November 1-2:
The rapid development of thissmall but potent cyclone over atwenty four hour period isshown in Figure 7. Much of theintensification occurred duringthe twenty four hour periodending at 0600 UTC November2nd when the central pressurefell 27 hPa. The ASCAT imagein Figure 8 reveals a compactcirculation containing a smallarea of winds 50 to as high as70 kts on the south and south-west sides of the center. Theship BATFR60 (53.5N 4.5W)reported south winds of 50 ktsat 1200 UTC on the 2nd. Buoy62029 (48.8N 12.0W) reportedA
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west winds of 34 kts and 8.0 mseas (26 ft) at 1000 UTC onthe 2nd, followed by a report of9.5 m seas (31 ft) three hourslater. The cyclone subsequent-ly moved northeast across theBritish Isles and into the NorthSea, where winds weakened togale force in spite of the lowestcentral pressure of 970 hPabeing reached there, at 0600UTC on the 3rd. The cycloneweakened and moved intosouthern Norway the followingnight.
Northwestern Atlantic Storm,
November 2-3:
Figure 7 shows initial develop-ment of this low as it trackedfrom the Great Lakes into cen-tral Quebec with the secondpart of Figure 7 showing theeastern edge of the systemwith a “developing hurricaneforce” label, when the centerwas near 51N 68W with a 970hPa central pressure. Thecyclone moved into theLabrador Sea where it devel-oped a lowest central pressureof 964 hPa and hurricane forcewinds at 1800 UTC on the 2ndand 0000 UTC on the 3rd.ASCAT imagery from 0020UTC on the 3rd revealed eastwinds 50 to 60 kts ahead of afront approaching southernGreenland. Winds weakened tostorm force the following nightas the system drifted east, andbecame absorbed by anotherlow passing to the east late onthe 3rd.
North Atlantic Storm,
November 9-12:
Initial development was as anew low on a front whichmoved off the southernLabrador coast at 0600 UTCNovember 8th and then outover the north central waters,to be overtaken and absorbedby a new wave of low pressurecoming from near the island ofNewfoundland. Figure 9
depicts the merging of the twolows to form the hurricaneforce low at maximum intensityin the second part of the fig-ure. This was the first of sever-al lows to develop central pres-sures below 950 hPa. Thecentral pressure fell 37 hPa inthe twenty four hour periodcovered by Figure 9. TheASCAT-B image in Figure 10
returned southwest winds of50 kts on the southeast side ofthe cyclone with the centernear the left edge of theimage, and even strongerwinds northwest of the occlud-ed front (up to 60 kts). Thecyclone then moved northeaston the 11th and weakened,and passed northeast ofIceland early on the 12th.
Northeastern Atlantic Storm,
November 18-20:
This cyclone already was welldeveloped when it moved outof the Arctic on a southeast-ward track, and passed nearthe Faroe Islands late on the19th as a hurricane force 980hPa low. An ASCAT pass from0954 UTC on the 20th detect-ed north winds of 50 ktsbetween the Faroe Islands andScotland. The cyclone
subsequently moved southeastand weakened in the southernNorth Sea late on the 20th.
Western North Atlantic
Storm, November 27-30:
This developing cyclonemoved from New England onthe morning of November 27thnortheast across southernLabrador, and into the north-west Labrador Sea on theafternoon of the 28th whilemaintaining storm force winds.It briefly developed hurricaneforce winds with a 960 hPacenter near 61N 57W at 0600UTC on the 29th. It was similarin intensity and associatedwinds to the November 2-3storm which followed a similartrack. The ship MSC Monterey
(D5BL4) near 41N 70W report-ed southeast winds of 40 ktsand 9.0 m seas (30 ft) at 1700UTC on the 27th. The Arctic
(VCLM) near 58N 60Wencountered northwest windsof 56 kts and 13.7 m seas (45ft) at 0900 UTC on the 29th.Buoy 44024 (42.3N 65.8W)reported south winds of 35 ktsand 9.0 m seas (30 ft) at 0300UTC on the 28th. The cyclonesubsequently moved northeastinto the Davis Strait and weak-ened early on the 30th.
Northeastern Atlantic/North
Sea Storm, December 4-5:
The rapid development of thisrelatively short lived system isdisplayed in Figure 11. Theopen wave south of Greenlandin the first part of the figuredeepened by 44 hPa in thenext twenty four hours into ahurricane force low, and A
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reached a maximum intensityof 960 hPa inland near 59N12E at 1800 UTC on the 5th.The cyclone then continued tomove away leading to dimin-ishing winds. Table 2 listsselected ship, buoy and plat-form observations during thisevent.
Table 2. Selected ship, buoy and platform observations taken during the Northeastern Atlantic/North
Sea storm of December 4-5, 2013
North Atlantic Storm,
December 10-14:
A developing low originatingoff the southeast coast of theU.S. on the afternoon ofDecember 8th moved north-east, crossed the island ofNewfoundland two days laterand then rapidly intensifiedwhile turning north towardGreenland (Figure 12). Thecentral pressure dropped 35hPa in the twenty four hour
period ending at 0600 UTC onthe 12th. The second part ofFigure 12 shows the cycloneat maximum intensity. AnASCAT-B image containingpasses from 1223 and 1404UTC on the 12th revealed aswath of west to southwestwinds of 50 to 60 kts south of
the low and similar winds fromthe northeast near the south-ern tip of Greenland, similar tothe image in Figure 6 for theOctober 28-31 event. A satel-lite altimetry image in Figure13 shows satellite sensed sig-nificant wave heights alongsatellite tracks, with timesclose to the valid time of thesecond part of Figure 12. Awave height of 13.2 m (43.57ft) appears off the east coastof Greenland, similar to
the image in Figure 6 for theOctober 28-31 event. A satel-lite altimetry image in Figure
13 shows satellite sensed sig-nificant wave heights alongsatellite tracks, with timesclose to the valid time of thesecond part of Figure 12. Awave height of 13.2 m
(43.57 ft) appears off the eastcoast of Greenland, and aheight of 12.2 m (40.16 ft) issouth of the low near 49N 50W.The Maersk Palermo (PDHW)near 47N 45W reported westwinds of 50 kts and 7.0 m seas(23 ft) at 0600 UTC on the12th, while Hibernia Platform
(VEP717, 46.7N 48.7W)encountered west winds of 65kts and 7.3 m seas (24 ft).Three hours prior, Terra Nova
FPSO (VCXF, 46.4N 48.4W) April 2
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reported west winds of 50 ktsand 6.0 m seas (20 ft). Thecyclone subsequently driftednorthwest and weakened, withits top winds lowering to galeforce on the 14th, and thendissipated in the Davis Straitwhile a new center formedeast of Greenland and driftedtoward Iceland (Figure 14).
Northeastern Atlantic
Storms, December 13-16:
Figure 14 depicts two signifi-cant events occurring in closesuccession. The lead lownorthwest of the British Isles inthe first part of Figure 14 origi-nated near Bermuda at 1200UTC on the 12th and rapidlyintensified after 0000 UTC onthe 14th, with the central pres-sure dropping 28 hPa in thetwenty four hour period endingat 0000 UTC on the 15th,when the cyclone passed near64N 8W with a lowest centralpressure of 957 mb. It brieflydeveloped hurricane forcewinds at 1800 UTC on the14th. An ASCAT-B pass from1953 UTC on the 14th withpartial coverage showed anarea of southwest winds 50 to60 kts south of the FaroeIslands. The ship BATEU08
(59N 6W) encountered south-west winds of 50 kts at 1800UTC on the 14th. The buoy62023 (51.4N 7.9W) reportedsouthwest winds of 53 kts withgusts to 68 kts at 1400 UTCon the 14th, and highest seasof 8.0 m (26 ft) two hours later.Buoy 62081 (51.0N 13.3W)reported southwest winds of 36kts and 10.0 m seas (33 ft) at0900 UTC on the 14th.
The cyclone moved rapidlynortheast of Iceland by the15th. The second cyclone isshown in Figure 14 with thecentral pressure dropping 50hPa in twenty four hours, ormore than 2 hPa per hour onaverage. It originated in the St.Lawrence Valley late on the12th, passed south of theisland of Newfoundland late onthe 13th and then moved outover the central North Atlanticby the 14th. The second partof Figure 14 shows thecyclone at maximum intensity.The ASCAT (METOP-A) imagein Figure 15 reveals a swathof west to south winds 50 to 70kts in the southeast side of thelow. Hurricane force winds last-ed from 1800 UTC on the 14ththrough 1800 UTC on the 15th,after which the cyclone passednortheast of Iceland whileweakening. Buoy 64045(59.1N 11.7W) reported south-west winds of 50 kts at 1400UTC on the 15th, and one hourlater maximum seas of 13.7 m(45 ft).
North Atlantic Storms,
December 17-19:
Figure 16 shows the next sig-nificant event developing fromthe merging of northern andsouthern lows near and southof the island of Newfoundland.The central pressure fell 35hPa in the twenty four hourperiod ending at 1800 UTC onthe 18th. Hurricane force windslasted from 1200 UTC on the18th to 0600 UTC on the 19th.Six hours later the center evel-oped a lowest central pressureof 940 hPa near 64N 12W.
Buoy 62023 (51.4N 7.9W)reported south winds 48 ktswith gusts to 57 kts and 5.0 mseas (16 ft) at 1500 UTC onthe 18th, a peak gust of 67 ktsone hour later, and highestseas 6.5 m (21 ft) at 0300 UTCon the 19th. Buoy 62105(55.0N 13.2W) reported north-west winds of 47 kts and 7.0 mseas (23 ft) and maximumseas of 10.5 m (34 ft). Thecyclone then passed north ofIceland late on the 19th andweakened to a gale. Also, asecond low formed in the eastGreenland waters near 63N35W at 1200 UTC on the 18thand moved southeast, brieflydeveloping hurricane forcewinds six hours later near thesouthern tip of Greenlandbefore dissipating.
North Atlantic Storm,
December 18-21:
The next major storm originat-ed as the frontal wave of lowpressure seen in the first partof Figure 16 south of theGreat Lakes. It moved off-shore late on the 17th and rap-idly intensified after passingeast of the Gulf of Maine. Thecentral pressure fell 34 hPa inthe twenty four hour periodending at 1200 UTCDecember 19th when the cen-ter passed near 50N 52W witha 966 hPa central pressure.The cyclone intensified furtherand developed hurricane forcewinds six hours later, whichlasted until early on the 20th.An ASCAT-B pass from 2308UTC on the 19th returned anarea of west winds 50 to 70 ktson the south side to near 44N.The cyclone dissipated early A
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on the 21st or becameabsorbed by a secondary lowto the north near Iceland.Some notable surface observa-tions taken in this event arelisted in Table 3.
North Atlantic Storm,
December 22-25:
Low pressure originating as afrontal wave just south of NovaScotia on the morning of the21st tracked east into the
Table 3. Selected ship, buoy and platform observations taken during the North Atlantic storm of
December 18-21, 2013
the central North Atlantic overthe next day before turningnortheast and rapidly intensify-ing, with Figure 17 depictingfinal development into thedeepest low of the period witha central pressure of 929 hPa(27.43 inches). The centralpressure fell 52 hPa in thetwenty four hour period endingat 1800 UTC on the 23rd.The500 mb analysis for 0000 UTCon the 23rd (Figure 18)
precedes the period of mostrapid intensification and,although not shown, a shortwave trough is apparent south-west of the surface low posi-tion at that time, near 51N22W. The jet stream and shortwave trough support rapiddevelopment. More informationon the use of the 500 hPachart may be found in theReferences (Sienkiewicz andChesneau, 2008). An ASCAT-Apass from 2230 UTC on the
23rd showed a swath of westwinds 50 to 55 kts on thesouth side of the cyclonebetween 50N and 53N. To thenorthwest a second cycloneformed in the east Greenlandwaters at 1200 UTC on the22nd and moved southwest,briefly developing hurricaneforce winds near the southerntip of Greenland with a 960hPa center at 0000 UTC onthe 23rd before turning south-
east. The second part ofFigure 17 shows the cycloneat 54N 30W moving away fromGreenland. The main cyclonenorthwest of the British Islessubsequently moved north andpassed east of Iceland as aweakening gale late on the25th. The Maersk Ohio
(KABP) near 44N 30W report-ed southwest winds of 55 ktsand 8.2 m seas (27 ft) at 1800UTC on the 22nd. The Jaeger
Arrow (C6RM7) encountered
west winds 35 kts and 10.7 mseas (35 ft) near 46N 33W at0400 UTC on the 23rd.
North Atlantic Storm,
December 28-31:
The final significant weatherevent of the period originatednear the southern NewEngland coast on the after-noon of the 26th and movednortheast across the island of
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Newfoundland on the morning of the 27th. Rapid intensification in the following twenty four hoursand then a turn to the north with slowing led to a cyclone over the northern waters at maximumintensity (Figure 19). The central pressure fell 30 hPa in the twenty four hour period ending at 1200UTC on the 28th. The system became complex by 0000 UTC on the 30th. The ASCAT-A image inFigure 20 shows two areas of strong winds with the highest winds of up to 60 kts near the south-east coast of Greenland. There were two cyclone centers at that time, one near 59N 37W and theother near 59N 30W. The centers slowly weakened and merged with another cyclone passing tothe south (Figure 19) by the 31st when winds weakened to gale force.
References
1. Sanders, Frederick and Gyakum, John R., Synoptic-Dynamic Climatology of the “Bomb”,Monthly Weather Review, October 1980.
2. ASCAT Users Manual,http://www.knmi.nl/scatterom/publications/pdf/ASCAT_Product_Manual.pdf
3. Von Ahn, Joan. and Sienkiewicz, Joe, Hurricane Force Extratropical Cyclones Observed UsingQuikSCAT Near Real Time Winds, Mariners Weather Log, Vol. 49, No. 1, April 2005.
4. Saffir-Simpson Scale of Hurricane Intensity: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshs.shtml
5. Tropical Cyclone Reports 2013, National Hurricane Center,http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2013atlan.shtml
6. Sienkiewicz, Joe and Chesneau, Lee, Mariner’s Guide to the 500-Millibar Chart, MarinersWeather Log, Vol. 52, No. 3, December 2008.
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Marine Weather Review – North Pacific AreaMarch through August 2013
By George P. BancroftOcean Forecast Branch, Ocean Prediction Center, College Park, MD
NOAA National Center for Environmental Prediction
Introduction
The most active storm trackduring the period was from thewestern North Pacific in thevicinity of Japan northeastwardtoward the central AleutianIslands before weakening inthe northeastern Pacific orsouthern Gulf of Alaska.Several moved into the BeringSea, with the strongest one occurring in early March.Several cyclones reached orapproached hurricane forcestrength during March andearly April, developing centralpressures in the 960s orbelow. After an unusually deepsummer storm passed justsouth of the Aleutian Islandsand southern Bering Sea latein June, high pressure aloftbuilding over the North Pacificand parts of Alaska sup-pressed activity, with nocyclones developing stormforce winds until early August,when late summer activitypicked up. Tropical activityappearing in OPC’s oceanicsurface analysis area consist-ed of four named cyclones(two tropical storms and twotyphoons), with one each inJune and July and two occur-ring in August as late summeractivity began to pick up. Thelate August event actuallyoriginated in the central Pacificwarning area handled by the
Central Pacific HurricaneCenter in Honolulu andcrossed 180W into the westernPacific warning area handledby the Joint Typhoon WarningCenter at Pearl Harbor, HI.None of these cyclones laterredeveloped as strong mid-latitude extratropical (post-trop-ical) lows.
Tropical Activity
Tropical Storm Yagi:
Yagi attained tropical stormstrength while crossing 130Ewell south of Japan at 1800UTC June 8th, heading north-east. Yagi gradually intensifiedover the next two days, devel-oping a maximum intensity of55 kts for sustained winds withgusts to 70 kts while passingnear 28N 136E at 0000 UTCon the 11th. The MVSafmarine Mafadi (9VBB3)reported southeast winds of 40kts and 4.0 m seas (13 ft) near21N 134E at 1400 UTC on the9th. The cyclone then driftedeast and slowly weakened,becoming a tropical depres-sion with 30 kts sustainedwinds near 31N 137E at 1200UTC on the 12th and a post-tropical low six hours later. At2100 UTC on the 11th theGrebe Arrow (C6OM7) report-ed east winds of 45 kts and4.3 m seas (14 ft) near 29N
142E. The remains of Yagibecame absorbed by a frontalzone southeast of Japan lateon the 15th.
Typhoon Soulik:
A non-tropical low appearingnear 20N 152E early on July6th drifted west and becameTropical Storm Soulik near19N 146E at 0000 UTC on the8th with 40 kts maximum sus-tained winds. Soulik rapidlyintensified into a typhoon near20N 141E eighteen hours laterwith maximum sustained windsof 65 kts. Drifting west north-west and continuing to intensi-fy, Soulik attained a maximumintensity of 125 kts with guststo 150 kts near 21N 136E at0000 UTC on the 10th. Thisplaced Soulik in Category 4 ofthe Saffir-Simpson wind scale,with the highest being 5. Thecyclone then continued to driftwest with a slow weakeningtrend, and passed west of130E, or the western edge ofthe National Weather Service’sUnified Analysis, by 0600 UTCJuly 11th as a 95 kts typhoon.A satellite based altimetrydetected significant waveheights of 33 ft (10.0 ms) nearthe center of Soulik at 2100UTC on the 10th.
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Tropical Storm Utor:
Utor originated as a non-tropi-cal low which formed far to thesouth near 11N 137E at 1200UTC August 8th, moved north-west and became TropicalDepression 11W six hourslater, and then a tropical stormnear 13N 134E 0600 UTC onthe 9th with maximum sus-tained winds of 35 kts. It wasgiven the name Utor twelvehours later before crossing130E as a 45 kts tropical storm0000 UTC on the 10th. Utorlater became a typhoon westof the area.
Typhoon Pewa:
Originating in the centralPacific as Tropical storm Pewanear 10N 173W at 1200 UTCon August 16th, Pewa trackedslowly west northwest withgradual intensification over thenext three days and retainedits name while crossing 180Winto the Joint Typhoon WarningCenter’s area of responsibilityearly on the 18th. Pewa brieflybecame a typhoon at 0600 to1200 UTC on the 19th whilepassing near 15N 177E withmaximum sustained winds of65 kts with gusts to 80 kts.Pewa then gradually weak-ened while turning toward thenorthwest and then north overthe next six days, and becamea remnant low just south ofOPC’s high seas area near29N 166E at 0600 UTC August25th.
Other Significant
Weather of the Period
North Pacific and Bering Sea
Storm, February 28-March 2:
A developing cyclone comingfrom just south of Japan earlyon February 27th rapidly inten-sified out over the NorthPacific over a thirty six hourperiod as depicted in Figure 1.The central pressure fell 29hPa in the twenty four hourperiod ending at 1800 UTC onMarch 1st, when the systemreached maximum intensity.The swath of west to north-west winds of up to 60 ktsdetected by satellite (Figure 2)actually extended into thesouthern Bering Sea while thecenter was passing just southof the central Aleutians at thistime. The low bias of ASCATimagery at these high windspeeds prompted OPC ana-lysts to give this system a hur-ricane force label. TheDominator (WBZ4106) near54N 166W reported east windsof 50 kts and 4.0 m seas (13ft) at 0700 UTC on the 2nd.The ship 4XIM (56N 172W)reported 8.8 m seas (29 ft)along with 35 kts northeastwinds eleven hours later. Thecyclone subsequently weak-ened while turning east andthen southeast over the nextseveral days with its windsdropping to gale force by the3rd, and moved inland overOregon on the 6th.
Western Pacific and Bering
Sea Storm, March 1-4:
This cyclone, already withstorm force conditions whilepassing over northern Japanon March 1st (Figure 1),tracked northeast near the
Kurile Islands and developed alowest central pressure of 964hPa near 52N 164E at 1800UTC on the 3rd. The ASCATimagery in Figure 3 reveals aswath of east winds up to 55kts across the northern KurileIslands, indicating actual windsapproached hurricane forcewith this cyclone. The centerwas over the southern KurileIslands with a 968 hPa centralpressure at this time. Thestorm subsequently weakenedover the western Bering Seaon the 4th with its winds dimin-ishing to gale force, beforemoving inland over easternRussia on the 5th.
North Pacific Storm,
March 6-8:
Low pressure originating justsouth of Japan on March 3rdtracked northeast, developingstorm force winds over thecentral waters early on the 6thbefore passing near 53N163W with a lowest centralpressure of 954 hPa early onthe 7th. This was the deepestnon-tropical cyclone of theperiod in the North Pacific. Ahigh resolution ASCAT passvalid at 2128 UTC March 7threvealed a broad circulationwith winds up to 45 kts withsome higher east winds of 50kts detected between KodiakIsland and the Kenai Peninsulaassociated with an approach-ing front. The cyclone movednorth into the southeast BeringSea late on the 7th and weak-ened rapidly over Alaska lateon the 8th.
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Western North Pacific Storm,
March 31-April 3:
A developing low pressure sys-tem east of Japan rapidlyintensified over a twenty fourhour period as two frontal sys-tems merged (Figure 4), withthe central pressure falling 39hPa. The lowest central pres-sure was 964 hPa, reached sixhours later. The windsincreased from gale force tohurricane force in the six hourperiod ending at 1200 UTCApril 1st. Hurricane force windswith this system lasted through1800 UTC on the 2nd, whenthe center passed near 48N180W. Figure 5 is a high reso-lution ASCAT image showing aswath of west to northwestwinds as high as 65 kts on thesouth side of the cyclone’scenter. The APL Brazil
(C6TL7) near 49N 167Ereported north winds of 45 ktsand 5.8 m seas (19 ft) at 0600UTC on the 2nd. The Houston
Express (DCCR2) encoun-tered east winds of 45 kts and10.7 m seas (35 ft) near 53N174W) at 2300 UTC on the2nd. One hour later the Nyk
Triton (3FUL2) reported eastwinds of 35 kts and 9.5 m seas(31 ft) near 53N 172W. Thecyclone then slowly weakenedwhile turning east along 49Nsouth of the central AleutianIslands with its winds loweringto gale force on the afternoonof the 3rd. Dissipation fol-lowed, south of the easternAleutians, later on the nextday.
North Pacific Storm,
April 2-6:
The next cyclone passed justsouth of Japan early on April2nd with its expected presenceimplied by a twenty four hourtrack position just southeast ofJapan in the second part ofFigure 4. The center devel-oped storm force winds as itpassed east of Japan near36N 143E with a 981 hPa cen-tral pressure at 0600 UTC onthe 3rd. The cyclone devel-oped a lowest central pressureof 974 hPa while passing near40N 180W at 0000 UTC on the6th. ASCAT imagery from 2135UTC April 5 revealed westwinds of 50 kts south of thecenter. The system thenmoved northeast and weak-ened, with its winds diminish-ing to gale force well south ofthe central Aleutian Islandsearly on the 6th, and on the8th became absorbed by anew cyclone forming to thenortheast in the Gulf of Alaskaon the 8th.
Western North Pacific Storm,
May 8-9:
A complex area of low pres-sure with multiple centers tothe east and southeast ofJapan at 1800 UTC on the 7thconsolidated into a single cen-ter twenty four hours later near40N 157E, where it stalled anddeveloped storm force windsand a 992 hPa center sixhours later. ASCAT imageryavailable at 2245 UTC on the8th revealed a small area of 50kts east winds on the northside of the system. A vesselreporting with the SHIP call
sign near 39N 151E encoun-tered northwest winds of 50 ktsat 1200 UTC on the 9th. Thecenter developed a lowest cen-tral pressure of 982 hPa near40N 156E at 1800 UTC on the9th, but its top winds hadweakened to gale force by thattime. The cyclone then driftednortheast and weakened lateon the 9th and its winds low-ered to below gale force earlyon the 12th. The cyclone dissi-pated later that day as a newcenter formed near the west-ern Aleutian Islands.
Western North Pacific Storm,
May 17-19:
An unseasonably intensecyclone formed in the westernwaters in the middle of May asdepicted in Figure 6. It origi-nated as a complex area oflow pressure with multiple cen-ters east and southeast ofJapan late on May 15 whichconsolidated into one center at0000 UTC on the 17th. Thecentral pressure rapidlydropped, by 26 hPa in thetwenty four hour period endingat 0600 UTC on the 18th. Thesecond part of Figure 6 showsthe cyclone at maximum inten-sity and the visible satelliteimage in Figure 7 shows amature occluded system withwell defined frontal bandswrapping around the center.The cyclone was still nearmaximum intensity at that time.The high resolution ASCATimage in Figure 8 returnedsome winds of 50 kts on thesouth side at the edges ofadjacent passes. It is possiblethe data free gap betweenpasses misses higher winds.A
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A ship using the call sign SHIP
near 35N 152E reported north-west winds of 45 kts at 1800UTC on the 17th. Six hourslater the Starlsmene (LANT5)encountered southeast windsof 35 kts and 11.3 m seas (37ft). The cyclone subsequentlyweakened while tracking north-east into the Bering Sea withits top winds lowering to galeforce early on May 19th and tobelow gale force in the south-ern Bering Sea on the after-noon of the 21st. Dissipationfollowed on the 23rd, in thenorthern Bering Sea.
Eastern North Pacific Storm,
June 4-6:
This event began as a wave oflow pressure near 36N 167Eearly on June 3rd which grad-ually intensified while movingeast northeast over the nexttwo to three days, developingstorm force winds and a lowestcentral pressure of 972 hPanear 49N 158W at 0000 UTCon the 6th. An ASCAT passfrom 0753 UTC on the 6threturned winds up to 45 kts onthe south side in an imagesimilar to that of the June 20-21 event (Figure 10). The lowbias of ASCAT winds supportsanalysis as a storm force low.The Hanover Express
(DFGX2) near 54N 154Wreported east winds of 45 ktsat 0600 UTC on the 6th. Thedrifting buoy 46246 (50.0N145.1W) reported seas of 7.6ms (25 ft) at 0500 UTC on the7th. The cyclone’s top windsdiminished to gale force by theafternoon of the 6th as a weak-ening trend began.
The cyclone dissipated nearsouthern Southeast Alaska onthe 9th.
North Pacific Storm,
June 20-21:
The last storm force event tooccur until late summer fea-tured an unusually intensesummer storm developing froma complex of low centers eastof Japan over a forty eighthour period as depicted inFigure 9. The lowest centralpressure of 963 hPa was thesecond lowest of the period inthe North Pacific. The highresolution ASCAT image inFigure 10 reveals winds ashigh as 45 kts on the southside of the cyclone when thesystem was approaching maxi-mum intensity. The Hanover
Express (DFGX2) near 51N170E reported northwest windsof 45 kts and 6.5 m seas (21ft) at 0000 UTC June 22nd,while the Star Evviva (LAHE2)encountered north winds of 35kts and 8.5 m seas (28 ft) near52N 170E. The cyclone subse-quently passed near the cen-tral Aleutian Islands late on the21st with its winds weakeningto gale force, before reachingthe eastern Aleutians early onthe 23rd. Upper level highpressure over Alaska thenforced the cyclone to driftsoutheastward over the nextseveral days, and stall west ofWashington and Oregon bythe 29th. Dissipation followedlate on the 30th.
Eastern North Pacific Storm,
August 5-6:
After a relatively quiet July, the
weather became more activein August with two storm forcelows. The first of these origi-nated as a secondary develop-ment on a front with the pri-mary low well to the west(Figure 11). The new cyclonegradually intensified over thenext two days, developing alowest central pressure of 981hPa south of the AlaskaPeninsula as shown in the sec-ond part of Figure 11. ASCATimagery (Figure 12) detectedwinds as high as 45 kts on thesouth side of the centerapproximately 0600 UTC onthe 6th with OPC analyzing thecyclone as a storm force low at0600 and 1200 UTC on the6th. The buoy 46075 (53.9N160.8W) reported northwestwinds of 33 kts with peak gustsof 43 kts and 4.0 m seas (13ft) at 2100 UTC on the 6th.The cyclone subsequentlyweakened while turning north-ward into the southeast BeringSea by the 7th, where it stalledthrough the 9th before movinginland on the 10th.
Northwestern Pacific Storm,
August 27-29:
Low pressure originating southof Japan early on August 26thmoved northeast over the nexttwo days, developing stormforce winds with a 977 hPacentral pressure near 47N157E at 1200 UT C on the28th. The cyclone then turnednorth into the Sea of Okhotsklater on the 28th, developing alowest central pressure of 972hPa near 50N 156E at 0000UTC on the 29th. ASCATimagery from 2314 UTC on the
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28th returned winds to 45 kts in the south semicircle near the Kurile Islands.The Paris Express
(DIHE) near 45N 161E reported southeast winds of 40 kts at 1200 UTC on the 28th. TheWestwood Columbia (C6SI4) near 46N 158E encountered seas of 7.9 ms (26 ft) along with south-west winds of 30 kts at 0600 UTC on the 29th. The cyclone subsequently weakened rapidly whilemoving northeast into the western Bering Sea later on the 29th and the 30th, and then becameabsorbed by a gale force low passing to the south on the 31st.
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2014 Marine Meteorological Monitoring Survey (MMMS)
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) conducts the Marine Meteorological MonitoringSurvey (MMMS) on a regular basis to improve the level of metorological support coordinated bythe Joint WMO-IOC Technical Commission of Oceanography and Marine Meteorology (JCOMM).We kindly seek your assistance in disseminating information on the ongoing survey. To participatein the survey online please go to: http://www.jcomm.info/MMMS2014. Any questions or enquirescan be directed to WMO Marine Meteorology and Oceanography Programme by email at:[email protected]
46
Tropical Atlantic and Tropical East Pacific
Areas September through December 2013
Scott Stripling and Michael FormosaTropical Analysis and Forecast Branch,
National Hurricane Center, Miami, FloridaNOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction
North Atlantic Ocean to 31N and Eastward to 35W, including theCaribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico
Atlantic Highlights
The autumn period of September through December 2013 proved to be very active in terms of galeconditions across the TAFB Area of Responsibility (AOR). The 26 non-tropical warnings issued forthe Tropical North Atlantic during this period were well above the average of 16 warnings issuedduring the past 7 years.
Table 1 below shows the non-tropical warning events that occurred across the Tropical Atlantic,Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean Sea during this period. While only 3 events occurred in October,November and December proved very active, with 12 and 11 events occurring, respectively.
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of Mexico and through the Pacific Ocean’s Gulfof Tehuantepec, and occasionally to sweepacross portions of the Southwest North Atlantic.The development of persistent east to westupper level ridging across the mid latitudes ofthe Atlantic during December combined withthe Pacific blocking pattern to force the coldweather intrusions into a more southerly trajec-tory, resulting in gale conditions mainly occur-ring across the Gulf of Mexico. Figure1 showsthe mean 500 hPa height anomalies across theAtlantic and Pacific Oceans during Novemberand December, and illustrates the prevailingupper tropospheric patterns across both basins.
Figure 1. NOAA ESRL Reanalysis plot of mean 500 HPa height anomalies for Nov through Dec 2013, where
warm colors represent above normal heights and cool colors below normal heights. Note the strong and
broad high pressure ridge prevailing across much of the NE Pacific and broad deep trough extending from
east of Greenland into the Great Lakes region. The teleconnection between the Atlantic and Pacific upper
level patterns forced the prevalent upper trough across eastern Canada to make frequent intrusions south-
ward between the two upper level ridges during the period, transporting surface cold fronts and very cold
continental polar air.
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The upper atmospheric pattern spanning NorthAmerica and the adjacent ocean basins con-tributed strongly to the very active weatheracross the TAFB AOR during November andDecember of 2013. Upper level ridging cen-tered across the Gulf of Alaska during much ofOctober strengthened, shifted slightly north-west, then expanded northwest to southeastduring most of November and December tocreate a strong persistent blocking pattern,yielding the positive phase of the North PacificOscillation. This forced cold Arctic air to be fun-neled into central and eastern portions of theU.S. and provided the forcing for frequent coldfronts and gale conditions to spill into the Gulf
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13-14 November Gulf of Mexico/Southwest North Atlantic Gale
spreading from the outer coastal watersbetween Apalachicola, FL and the mouth of theMississippi river southwestward to the offshorewaters of Tampico, Mexico. By 0600 UTC 13Nov, the front had shifted offshore of the south-eastern U.S. and north Florida, where northerlygales to 40 kts with higher gusts extended fromthe coastal waters of Jacksonville, FL well off-shore into the open SW N Atlantic, and weredepicted entering north portions of this area bya 0411 UTC 13 Nov OSCAT pass. The frontcontinued moving southeastward across theeastern Gulf of Mexico, the Florida peninsulaand the SW Atlantic through 0000 UTC 14 Nov,reaching from Bermuda through the northwestBahamas and Straits of Florida to the centralBay of Campeche, (Figure 2). Northerly galesto 40 kts persisted across southwest portions ofthe Gulf through this time, while gales acrossthe SW Atlantic continued to shift southwardbehind the front.
Figure 2. NWS Unified Surface Analysis for 0000 UTC 14 Nov showing cold front stretched from near
Bermuda (not shown) through the northwest Bahamas and Straits of Florida, and 1035 HPa high pres-
sure centered across eastern U.S. promoting strong pressure gradient north of the front. Gale sym-
bols indicate general areas of NHC Gale Warnings.
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A series of strong cold fronts swept southeast-ward across the Gulf of Mexico and portions ofthe Southwest North Atlantic during the monthof November, producing several periods ofnortherly gales. One of the more interestingevents occurred 13-14 Nov, when gales spreadas far southeastward as the northwesternBahamas through the Straits of Florida. A weakcold front moved southeast into the extremenorthern Gulf waters on 11 Nov and stretchedeast-northeastward across north Florida, whereit stalled then drifted slowly south and weak-ened through 12 Nov. A strong cold front shift-ing southward through central portions of theU.S. then entered the central Gulf shortly after1800 UTC 12 Nov, followed by a 1047 hPa sur-face high shifting southeastward across theMissouri Valley. Winds quickly reached galeforce behind the front by 0000 UTC on 13 Nov,from north central to western Gulf waters,where 0200 to 0400 UTC ASCAT passesshowed north to north-northeast gales
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of extreme southeast Florida through theStraits, indicating winds 30-34 kts, and severalaqua colored ship and C-MAN reports indicating30 to 40 kts. These gale force winds blowingagainst the Florida Current are optimum condi-tions for creating extreme waves in the Straitsof Florida. Also shown are persistent gales to 40kts across the west half of the Bay ofCampeche, depicted in red and dark blue windbarbs. Gales across the Bahamas and adjacentAtlantic ended by 0600 UTC as the front contin-ued southward across the region and slowed itsforward progress. By 1800 UTC 14 Nov thefront had become nearly stationary from thesoutheast Bahamas westward across Cuba andnorth coastal portions of the Yucatan Peninsulaand into the eastern Bay of Campeche, wherethe last of gales associated with front ended. Asmentioned previously, gales across the Gulf ofMexico are typical behind fronts during themonths of November and December, but arerare occurrences behind fronts moving throughthe Bahamas and the Straits of Florida.
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Figure 3. A 0200 through 0500 UTC compilation of scatterometer wind data in multi colored wind barbs, with
legend at top right (kts), and buoy, C-MAN and ship observations in large aqua colored wind flags. Note NE
gales wrapping around the south end of Florida Peninsula and through the Straits of Florida, and persistent
north gales to 40 kts in Bay of Campeche.
Several ship reports from across the northwestBahamas and the Florida Keys began to indi-cate gale force winds by 0000 UTC 14 Nov,and were later confirmed by 0200 to 0400 UTCASCAT passes. At 0000 UTC the Carnival
Fascination (C6FM9) was moving through theStraits of Florida offshore of the central FloridaKeys and reported NE winds at 40 kts, while at0300 UTC the Norwegian Sky (C6PZ8) report-ed NNE winds at 39 kts in the NorthwestProvidence Channel. Surprisingly, the coastaland offshore waters of the northwest Bahamas,south Florida, and the Straits of Florida remaindevoid of any buoy observations, and have lim-ited wind platforms, making ship observationsand opportune scatterometer wind data crucialin verifying significant marine events such asthis. Figure 3 shows a 0200 through 0500 UTCscatterometer wind compilation across theregion on 14 Nov, with ship, buoy and C-MANobservations depicted with large aqua coloredwind flags. Note the broad swath of red scat-terometer wind barbs extending from offshore
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Eastern North Pacific Ocean to 30N and East of 140W
The fall and winter months are an active time for gale and storm events in this portion of theEastern Pacific. The majority of the events typically occur in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Thus far inthe 2013-14 cool season, there were 11 Gulf of Tehuantepec gale and storm events, two (2) Gulf ofCalifornia gale events, and one other Eastern Pacific gale event near 22N 131W.
Ship reports received through the Voluntary Observing Ship (VOS) program are a vital source ofdata in verifying gale and storm events. Some select ship reports that directly verified some of thisseason’s gales are enumerated in Table 3.
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The Gulf of Tehuantepec gale and storm eventsthis season totaled 642 hours, a 30% increaseover the previous two seasons.A gale event in the Gulf of Mexico behind a coldfront on 27 Nov 2013 produced a storm eventin the Gulf of Tehuantepec, (Figure 4). Notethat the 1030 hPa High over north Mexico sig-nificantly increased the surface pressure gradi-ent over the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. This windevent started on 27 Nov 2013 at 0600 UTC asa gale. Winds increased to storm force sixhours later and lasted until 28 Nov 1800 UTCwhen winds once again decreased to galeforce. The event ended on 2 Dec 2013 whengale conditions abated.
Figure 4. National Weather Service Unified Surface Analysis (USA) valid 1200 UTC 27
Nov 2013.
An Indian Oceansat-2 Scattereometer (OSCAT) pass captured the event in both the Bay ofCampeche and the Gulf of Tehuantepec, (Figure 5). Storm force winds were depicted in the Gulf ofTehuantepec with numerous 50 kts wind barbs noted. Gale force winds extended southward to 13Nbetween 93W and 96W, while 20 kts winds reached 10N between 94W and 100W. The shipStatendam (PHSG) traversed both the gale and storm areas while sailing WNW on 28 Nov 2013.
The Gulf of Tehuantepec wind events are usu-ally driven by mid-latitude cold frontal passagesthrough the narrow Chivela Pass in the Isthmusof Tehuantepec between the Sierra Madre deOaxaca Mountains on the west and the SierraMadre de Chiapas Mountains on the east. Thenortherly frontal winds from the southwest Gulfof Mexico produce a gap event through thepass delivering stronger winds into the Gulf ofTehuantepec. The events are of various dura-tion with the longer events associated with rein-forcing secondary fronts in the Gulf of Mexico.The events are usually void of precipitation inthe Gulf of Tehuantepec, thus the OSCAT scat-terometer imagery depicts winds without raincontamination problems.
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Figure 5. Indian Oceansat-2 Scatterometer (OSCAT) pass valid at 1802 UTC 27 Nov 2013. Note the 50 kts wind
barbs that extend south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec to 14N95W.
References
Rogers, J. C. (1981), The North Pacific Oscillation. J. Climatol., 1: 39–57. doi:10.1002/joc.3370010106
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NOAA Ships Rainier
and HI'IALAKAI atthe ship yard.Lake Union WA
Photograph by PMOMatthew Thompson of
Seattle Washington.
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National Weather ServiceVOS Program New Recruits: July 1, 2013 through February 28, 2014
The Cooperative Ship Reports
can now be found online by
clicking here.
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Points of Contact
U.S. Port Meteorological Officers
HEADQUARTERS
John Wasserman
Voluntary Observing Ship Program ManagerNational Data Buoy CenterBuilding 3205Stennis Space Center, MS 39529-6000Tel: 228-688-1818Fax: 228-688-3923E-mail: [email protected]
Paula Rychtar
Voluntary Observing Ship OperationsManagerNational Data Buoy CenterBuilding 3203Stennis Space Center, MS 39529-6000Tel: 228-688-1457Fax: 228-688-3923E-mail: [email protected]
ATLANTIC PORTS
David Dellinger, PMO Miami, Florida
National Weather Service, NOAAPost Office Address for Small Packagesand USPS Mail:P.O. Box 350067Fort Lauderdale, FL 33335-0067FEDEX / UPS / DHL Package deliveryaddress and physical address:2550 Eisenhower Blvd, Suite 312Port Everglades, FL 33316Tel: 954-463-4271Fax: 954-462-8963E-mail: [email protected]
Robert Niemeyer, PMO Jacksonville, Florida
National Weather Service, NOAA13701 Fang RoadJacksonville, FL 32218-7933Tel: 904-607-3219Fax: 904-741-0078E-mail: [email protected]
Tim Kenefick, PMO Charleston, South Carolina
NOAA Coastal Services Center2234 South Hobson AvenueCharleston, SC 29405-2413Tel: 843-709-0102Fax: 843-740-1224E-mail: [email protected]
Peter Gibino, PMO Norfolk, Virginia
National Weather Service, NOAAP. O. Box 1492Grafton, VA 23692Tel: 757-617-0897E-mail: [email protected]
Lori Evans, PMO Baltimore, Maryland
National Weather Service, NOAAP. O. Box 3667Frederick, MD 21705-3667For UPS / FEDEX delivery:5838 Shookstown, RoadFrederick, MD 21702Tel: 443-642-0760E-mail: [email protected]
Jim Luciani, PMO New York, New York
New York / New JerseyNational Weather Service, NOAAP. O. Box 366Flemington, NJ 08822Tel: 908-217-3477E-mail: [email protected]
GREAT LAKES PORTS
Ron Williams, PMO Duluth, Minnesota
National Weather Service, NOAA5027 Miller Trunk HighwayDuluth, MN 55811-1442Tel 218-729-0651Fax 218-729-0690E-mail: [email protected]
GULF OF MEXICO PORTS
VACANT
PMO New Orleans, Louisiana
62300 Airport Rd.Slidell, LA 70460-5243Tel:Fax:E-mail:
Chris Fakes, PMO
National Weather Service, NOAA1353 FM646Suite 202Dickinson, TX 77539Tel: 281-534-2640 Ext. 277Fax: 281-534-4308E-mail: [email protected]
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U.S. Coast Guard AMVER Center
Ben Strong
AMVER Maritime Relations Officer,United States Coast GuardBattery Park BuildingNew York, NY 10004Tel: 212-668-7762Fax: 212-668-7684E-mail: [email protected]
SEAS Field Representatives
AOML SEAS PROGRAM MANAGER
Dr. Gustavo Goni
AOML4301 Rickenbacker CausewayMiami, FL 33149-1026Tel: 305-361-4339Fax: 305-361-4412E-mail: [email protected]
DRIFTER PROGRAM MANAGER
Dr. Rick Lumpkin
AOML/PHOD4301 Rickenbacker CausewayMiami, FL 33149-1026Tel: 305-361-4513Fax: 305-361-4412E-mail: [email protected]
ARGO PROGRAM MANAGER
Dr. Claudia Schmid
AOML/PHOD4301 Rickenbacker CausewayMiami, FL 33149-1026Tel: 305-361-4313Fax: 305-361-4412E-mail: [email protected]
GLOBAL DRIFTER PROGRAM
Shaun Dolk
AOML/PHOD4301 Rickenbacker CausewayMiami, FL 33149-1026Tel: 305-361-4446Fax: 305-361-4366E-mail: [email protected]
PACIFIC PORTS
Derek LeeLoy, PMO Honolulu, Hawaii
Ocean Services Program CoordinatorNational Weather Service Pacific Region HQNOAA IRC - NWS/PRH/ESSD1845 Wasp Blvd., Bldg. 176Honolulu, HI 96818Tel: 808-725-6016Fax: 808-725-6005E-mail: [email protected]
Brian Holmes, PMO Los Angeles, California
National Weather Service, NOAA501 West Ocean Blvd., Room 4480Long Beach, CA 90802-4213Tel: 562-980-4090Fax: 562-436-1550E-mail: [email protected]
VACANT
PMO Oakland/San Francisco, California
National Weather Service, NOAA1301 Clay Street, Suite 1190NOakland, CA 94612-5217Tel: 510-637-2960Fax: 510-637-2961E-mail:
Matt Thompson, PMO Seattle, Washington
National Weather Service, NOAA7600 Sand Point Way, N.E.,BIN C15700Seattle, WA 98115-6349Tel: 206-526-6100Fax: 206-526-6904E-mail: [email protected]
ALASKA AREA PORTS, FOCAL POINTS
Richard Courtney, Kodiak, Alaska
National Weather Service, NOAA600 Sandy Hook Street, Suite 1Kodiak, AK 99615-6814Tel: 907-487-2102Fax: 907-487-9730E-mail: [email protected]
Larry Hubble, Anchorage, Alaska
National Weather Service Alaska Region222 West 7th Avenue #23Anchorage, AK 99513-7575Tel: 907-271-5135Fax: 907-271-3711E-mail: [email protected]
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Other Port Meteorological
Officers
ARGENTINA
Mario J. Garcia
Jefe del Dto. RedesServicio Meteorlógico Nacional25 de Mayo 658 (C1002ABN)Buenos AiresArgentinaTel: +54-11 4514 1525Fax: +54-11 5167 6709E-mail: [email protected]
AUSTRALIA
Head Office
Graeme Ball, Manager.
PMO CoordinatorMarine Operations GroupBureau of MeteorologyGPO Box 1289Melbourne, VIC 3001, AustraliaTel: +61-3 9669 4203Fax: +61 3 9669 4168E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected]
Fremantle
Craig Foster, PMA
Port Meteorological Officer Fremantle,Bureau of MeteorologyPO Box 1370Perth, WA 6872, AustraliaTel: +61-8 9263 2292Fax: +61 8 9263 2297E-mail: [email protected]
Melbourne
Brendan Casey, PMA
c/o Bureau of MeteorologyPort Meteorological OfficerMelbourne, Bureau of Meteorology,GPO Box 1289 Melbourne, VIC3001, AustraliaTel: +61-3 9669 4236Fax: +61-3 9669 4168E-mail: [email protected]
NORTHEAST ATLANTIC SEAS REP.
Jim Farrington
SEAS Logistics/AMC439 West York StreetNorfolk, VA 23510Tel: 757-441-3062Fax: 757-441-6495
E-mail: [email protected]
SOUTHWEST PACIFIC SEAS REP.
Carrie Wolfe
Southern California Marine Institute820 S. Seaside AvenueSan Pedro, Ca 90731-7330Tel: 310-519-3181Fax: 310-519-1054E-mail: [email protected]
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC SEAS REP.
Francis Bringas
AOML/GOOS Center4301 Rickenbacker CausewayMiami, FL 33149-1026Tel: 305-361-4332Fax: 305-361-4412E-mail: [email protected]
PACIFIC NORTHWEST SEAS REP.
Steve Noah
SEAS Logistics/PMCOlympic Computer Services, Inc.Tel: 360-385-2400Cell: 425-238-6501E-mail: [email protected] [email protected]
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Matt Dunn, PMO
c/o Bureau of MeteorologyPort Meteorological Officer SydneyBureau of MeteorologyGPO Box 413Darlinghurst, NSW 1300AustraliaTel: +61 2 9296 1553Fax: +61 2 9296 1648E-mail: [email protected]
CANADA
Canadian Headquarters
Gerie Lynn Lavigne, Life Cycle Manager
Marine Networks, Environment CanadaSurface Weather, Climate and Marine Networks4905 Dufferin StreetToronto, OntarioCanada M3H 5T4Tel: +1-416 739 4561Fax: +1-416 739 4261E-mail: [email protected]
British Columbia
Bruce Lohnes, Monitoring Manager
Environment CanadaMeteorological Service of Canada140-13160 Vanier PlaceRichmond, British Columbia V6V 2J2CanadaTel: +1-604-664-9188Fax: +1604-664-4094E-mail: [email protected]
Newfoundland
Andrew Dwyer, PMO
Environment Canada6 Bruce StreetSt John’s, Newfoundland A1N 4T3CanadaTel: +1-709-772-4798Fax: +1-709-772-5097E-mail: [email protected]
Nova Scotia
Martin MacLellan
A/Superintendent Port Meteorology & DataBuoy ProgramEnvironment Canada275 Rocky Lake Rd, Unit 8BBedford, NSB4A 2T3Office: (902) 426-6616Cell: (902) 483-3723Fax: (902) 426-6404
Ontario
Tony Hilton, Supervisor PMO;
Shawn Ricker, PMO
Environment CanadaMeteorological Service of Canada100 East Port Blvd.Hamilton, Ontario L8H 7S4 CanadaTel: +1-905 312 0900Fax: +1-905 312 0730E-mail: [email protected]@ec.gc.ca
Quebec
Erich Gola, PMO
Meteorological Service of CanadaQuebec RegionService météorologique du CanadaEnvironnement Canada800 rue de la Gauchetière Ouest, bureau 7810Montréal (Québec) H5A 1L9 CanadaTel: +1-514 283-1644Cel: +1-514 386-8269Fax: +1-514 496-1867E-mail: [email protected]
CHINA
YU Zhaoguo
Shanghai Meteorological Bureau166 Puxi RoadShanghai, China
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CROATIA
Port of Split
Captain Zeljko Sore
Marine Meteorological Office-SplitP.O. Box 370Glagoljaska 11HR-21000 SplitCroatiaTel: +385-21 589 378Fax: +385-21 591 033 (24 hours)E-mail: [email protected]
Port of Rijeka
Smiljan Viskovic
Marine Meteorological Office-RijekaRiva 20HR-51000 RijekaCroatiaTel: +385-51 215 548Fax: +385-51 215 574
DENMARK
Cmdr Roi Jespersen, PMO &
Cmdr Harald R. Joensen, PMO
Danish Meteorological Inst., ObservationDeptSurface and Upper Air ObservationsDivisionLyngbyvej 100DK-2100 CopenhagenDenmarkTel: +45 3915 7337Fax: +45 3915 7390E-mail: [email protected]@dmi.dk
FALKLANDS
Captain R. Gorbutt, Marine Officer
Fishery Protection OfficePort StanleyFalklandsTel: +500 27260Fax: +500 27265Telex: 2426 FISHDIR FK
FRANCE
Headquarters
André Péries, PMO Supervisor
Météo-France DSO/RESO/PMO42, Avenue Gustave Coriolis31057 Toulouse CédexFranceTel: +33-5 61 07 98 54Fax: +33-5 61 07 98 69E-mail: [email protected]
Boulogne-sur-mer
Gérard Doligez
Météo-France DDM6217, boulevard Sainte-Beuve62200 Boulogne-sur-merFranceTel: +33-3 21 10 85 10Fax: +33-2 21 33 33 12E-mail: [email protected]
Brest
Louis Stéphan, Station Météorologique
16, quai de la douane29200 BrestFranceTel: +33-2 98 44 60 21Fax: +33-2 98 44 60 21
La Réunion
Yves Morville, Station Météorologique
Port RéunionFranceFax: +262 262 921 147Telex: 916797REE-mail: [email protected]@wanadoo.fr
Le Havre
Andre Devatine, Station Météorologique
Nouveau SémaphoreQuai des Abeilles76600 Le HavreFranceTel: +33-2 32 74 03 65Fax: +33 2 32 74 03 61E-mail: [email protected]
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Michel Perini, PMO
Météo-France / CDM 132A BD du Château-Double13098 Aix en Provence Cédex 02FranceTel: +00 33 (0)4 42 95 25 42Fax: +00 33 (0)4 42 95 25 49E-mail: [email protected]
Montoir de Bretagne
Jean Beaujard, Station Météorologique
Aérodome de Saint-Nazaire-Montoir44550 Montoir de BretagneFranceTel: +33-2 40 17 13 17Fax: +33-2 40 90 39 37
New Caledonia
Henri Lévèque, Station Météorologique
BP 15198845 Noumea PortNew CaledoniaFranceTel: +687 27 30 04Fax: +687 27 42 95
GERMANY
Headquarters
Volker Weidner, PMO Advisor
Deutscher WetterdienstBernhard-Nocht-Strasse 76D-20359 HamburgGermanyTel: +49-40 6690 1410Fax: +49-40 6690 1496E-mail: [email protected]
Bremerhaven
Henning Hesse, PMO
Deutscher WetterdienstAn der Neuen Schleuse 10bD-27570 BremerhavenGermanyTel: +49-471 70040-18Fax: +49-471 70040-17E-mail: [email protected]
Hamburg
Horst von Bargen, PMO
Matthias Hoigt
Susanne Ripke
Deutscher WetterdienstMet. HafendienstBernhard-Nocht-Str. 76D - 20359 HamburgTel: +49 40 6690 1412/1411/1421Fax: +49 40 6690 1496E-mail: [email protected]
Rostock
Christel Heidner, PMO
Deutscher WetterdienstSeestr. 15aD - 18119 RostockTel: +49 381 5438830Fax: +49 381 5438863E-mail: [email protected]
Gilbraltar
Principal Meteorological Officer
Meteorological OfficeRAF Gilbraltar BFPO 52GilbraltarTel: +350 53419Fax: +350 53474
GREECE
Michael Myrsilidis
Marine Meteorology SectionHellenic National Meteorological Service(HNMS)El, Venizelou 1416777 HellinikonAthensGreeceTel: +30-10 9699013Fax: +30-10 9628952, 9649646E-mail: [email protected]
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HONG KONG , CHINA
Wing Tak Wong, Senior Scientific Officer
Hong Kong Observatory134A Nathan RoadKowloonHong Kong, ChinaTel: +852 2926 8430Fax: +852 2311 9448E-mail: [email protected]
ICELAND
Hreinn Hjartarson, Icelandic Met. Office
Bústadavegur 9IS-150 ReykjavikIcelandTel: +354 522 6000Fax: +354 522 6001E-mail: [email protected]
INDIA
Calcutta
Port Meteorological Office
Alibnagar, Malkhana BuildingN.S. Dock Gate No. 3Calcutta 700 043IndiaTel: +91-33 4793167
Chennai
Port Meteorological Office
10th Floor, Centenary BuildingChennai Port Trust, Rajaji RoadChennai 600 001IndiaTel: +91-44 560187
Fort Mumbai
Port Meteorological Office
3rd Floor, New Labour Hamallage BuildingYellow Gate, Indira DoctFort Mumbai 400 001IndiaTel: +91-2613733
Goa
PMO, Port Meteorological Liaison Office
Sada, P.O., Head Land SadaGoa 403 804IndiaTel: +91-832 520012
Kochi
Port Meteorological Office
Cochin Harbour, North End, Wellington IslandKochi 682 009IndiaTel: +91-484 667042
INDONESIA
Belawan
Stasiun Meteorologi Maritim Belawan
Jl. Raya Pelabuhan IIIBelawan - 20414IndonesiaTel: +62-21 6941851Fax: +62-21 6941851
Bitung
Stasiun Meteorologi Maritim Bitung
Jl. Kartini No. 1Bitung - 95524IndonesiaTel: +62-438 30989Fax: +62-438 21710
Jakarta
Mochamad Rifangi
Meteorological and Geophysical AgencyJl. Angkasa I No. 2 KemayoranJakarta - 10720IndonesiaTel: +62-21 4246321Fax: +62-21 4246703
Stasiun Meteorologi Maritim Tanjung Priok
Jl. Padamarang PelabuhanTanjung PriokJakarta - 14310IndonesiaTel: +62-21 4351366Fax: +62-21 490339A
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Makassar
Stasiun Meteorologi Maritim
MakassarJl. Sabutung I No. 20 PaotereMakassarIndonesiaTel: +62-411 319242Fax: +62-411 328235
Semarang
Stasiun Meteorologi Maritim
SemarangJl. Deli PelabuhanSemarang - 50174IndonesiaTel: +62-24 3549050Fax: +62-24 3559194
Surabaya
Stasiun Meteorologi Maritim
SurabayaJl. Kalimas baru No. 97BSurabaya - 60165IndonesiaTel: +62-31 3291439Fax: +62-31 3291439
IRELAND
Cork
Brian Doyle, PMO
Met EireannCork AirportCorkIrelandTel: +353-21 4917753Fax: +353-21 4317405
Dublin
Columba Creamer, Marine Unit
Met EireannGlasnevin HillDublin 9IrelandTel: +353 1 8064228Fax: +353 1 8064247E-mail: [email protected]
ISRAEL
Ashdod
Aharon Ofir, PMO
Marine DepartmentAshdod PortTel: 972 8 8524956
Haifa
Hani Arbel, PMO
Haifa PortTel: 972 4 8664427
JAPAN
Headquarters
Dr. Kazuhiko Hayashi, Scientific Officer
Marine Div., Climate and Marine Dept.Japan Meteorological Agency1-3-4 Otemachi, Chiyoda-kuTokyo, 100-8122JapanTel: +81-3 3212 8341 ext. 5144Fax: +81-3 3211 6908Email: [email protected]@climar.kishou.go.jp
Kobe
Port Meteorological Officer
Kobe Marine Observatory1-4-3, Wakinohamakaigan-dori, Chuo-kuKobe 651-0073JapanTel: +81-78 222 8918Fax: +81-78 222 8946
Nagoya
Port Meteorological Officer
Nagoya Local Meteorological Observatory2-18, Hiyori-ho, Chigusa-kuNagoya, 464-0039JapanTel: +81-52 752 6364Fax: +81-52 762-1242
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Yokohama
Port Meteorological Officer
Yokohama Local Meteorological Observatory99 Yamate-cho, Naka-kuYokohama, 231-0862JapanTel: +81-45 621 1991Fax: +81-45 622 3520Telex: 2222163
KENYA
Ali Juma Mafimbo, PMO
PO Box 98512MombasaKenyaTel: +254-11 225687 / 433689Fax: +254-11 433689E-mail: [email protected]
MALAYSIA
Port Bintulu
Paul Chong Ah Poh, PMO
Bintulu Meteorological StationP.O. Box 28597007 BintuluSarawakMalaysiaFax: +60-86 314 386
Port Klang
Mohd Shah Ani, PMO
Malaysian Meteorological ServiceJalan Sultan46667 Petaling JayaSelangorMalaysiaFax: +60-3 7957 8046
Port Kinabalu
Mohd Sha Ebung, PMO
Malaysian Meteorological Service7th Floor, Wisma Dang BandangP.O. Box 5488995 Kota KinabaluSabahMalaysiaFax: +60-88 211 019
MAURITUIS
Port Louis
Meteorological Services
St. Paul RoadVacoasMauritiusTel: +230 686 1031/32Fax: +230 686 1033E-mail: [email protected]
NETHERLANDS
Bert de Vries, PMO &
René Rozeboom, PMO
KNMI, PMO-OfficeWilhelminalaan 10Postbus 2013730 Ae de BiltNetherlandsTel: +31-30 2206391Fax: +31-30 2210849E-mail: [email protected]
NEW ZEALAND
Manager Marine Operations
Meteorological Service New Zealand Ltd.P.O. Box 722WellingtonNew ZealandTel: +64-4 4700 789Fax: +64-4 4700 772
NORWAY
Tor Inge Mathiesen, PMO
Norwegian Meteorological InstituteAllégaten 70N-5007 Bergen, NorwayTel: +47-55 236600Fax: +47-55 236703Telex: 40427/42239
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PAKISTAN
Hazrat Mir, Senior Meteorologist
Pakistan Meteorological DepartmentMeteorological OfficeJinnah International AirportKarachi, PakistanTel:+ 92-21 45791300, 45791322Fax: +92-21 9248282E-mail: [email protected]
PHILIPPINES
Cagayan de Oro City
Leo Rodriguez
Pagasa Complex StationCagayan de Oro City 9000, MisamisOccidentalPhilippines
Tel: +63-8822 722 760
Davao City
Edwin Flores
Pagasa Complex Station, Bangoy AirportDavao City 8000Philippines
Tel: +63-82 234 08 90
Dumaguete City
Edsin Culi
Pagasa Complex StationDumaguete City AirportDumaguete City, Negros Oriental 6200PhilippinesTel: +63-35 225 28 04
Legaspi City
Orthello Estareja
Pagasa Complex StationLegaspi City, 4500PhilippinesTel: +63-5221 245 5241
Iloilo City
Constancio Arpon, Jr.
Pagasa Complex StationIloilo City 5000PhilippinesTel: +63-33 321 07 78
Mactan City
Roberto Entrada
Pagasa Complex Station, Mactan AirportMactan City, CEBU 6016PhilippinesTel: +63-32 495 48 44
Manila
Dr. Juan D. Cordeta & Benjamin Tado, Jr
Pagasa Port Meteorological OfficePPATC Building, Gate 4South HarborManila 1018Philippines 1100Tel: +63-22 527 03 16
POLAND
Józef Kowalewski, PMO
Gdynia and Gdansk Institute of Meteorology andWaterManagementWaszyngton 42PL-81-342 GdyniaPolandTel: +48-58 6204572Fax: +48-58 6207101Telex: 054216E-mail: [email protected]
SCOTLAND
Tony Eastham, PMO
Met OfficeSaughton House, Broomhouse DriveEdinburgh EH11 3XQUnited KingdomTel: +44-131 528 7305Fax: +44-131 528 7345E-mail: [email protected]
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Ian J. Hendry, Offshore Adviser
Met OfficeDavidson House Campus 1Aberdeen Science & Technology ParkBridge of DonAberdeen AB22 8GTUnited KingdomTel: +44-1224 407 557Fax: +44-1224 407 568E-mail: [email protected]
REPUBLIC OF KOREA
Inchon
Inchon Meteorological Station
25 Chon-dong, Chung-guInchonRepublic of KoreaTel: +82-32 7610365Fax: +82-32 7630365
Pusan
Pusan Meteorological Station
1-9 Taechong-dong, Chung-guPusanRepublic of KoreaTel: +82-51 4697008Fax: +82-51 4697012
RUSSIAN FEDERATION
Ravil S. Fakhrutdinov
Roshydromet12, Novovagan’kovsky StreetMoscow 123242Russian FederationTel:+7-095 255 23 88Fax: +7-095 255 20 90Telex: 411117 RUMS RFE-mail: [email protected] [email protected]
SAUDI ARABIA
Mahmoud M. Rajkhan, PMO
Meteorology and EnvironmentalProtection Administration (MEPA)P.O. Box 1358Jeddah 21431Saudi ArabiaTel: +966-2 6512312 Ext. 2252 or 2564
SINGAPORE
Amran bin Osman, PMS
Meteorological ServicePO Box 8Singapore Changi AirportSingapore 9181Tel: 5457198Fax: +65 5457192Telex: RS50345 METSIN
SOUTH AFRICA
Headquarters
Johan Stander
Regional Manager: Western CapeAntarctica and IslandsSouth African Weather ServiceP O Box 21 Cape Town International Airport7525South AfricaTel: +27 (0) 21 934 0450Fax: +27 (0) 21 934 4590Cell: +27 (0) 82 281 0993Weatherline: 082 162E-mail: [email protected]
Cape Town
C. Sydney Marais, PMO
Cape Town Regional Weather OfficeCape Town International AirportCape Town 7525South AfricaTel: +27-21 934 0836Fax: +27-21 934 3296E-mail: [email protected]
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Durban
Gus McKay, PMO
Durban Regional Weather OfficeDurban International AirpotDurban 4029South AfricaTel: +27-31 408 1446Fax: +27-31 408 1445E-mail: [email protected]
SWEDEN
Johan Svalmark
SMHISE-601 75 NORRKÖPINGSwedenTel: + 46 11 4958000E-mail: [email protected]
TANZANIA, UNITED REPUBLIC OF
H. Charles Mwakitosi, PMO
P.O. Box 3056Dar es SalaamUnited Republic of Tanzania
THAILAND
Kesrin Hanprasert, Meteorologist
Marine and Upper Air Observation SectionMeteorological Observation DivisionThai Meteorological Department4353 Sukhumvit Road, BangnaBangkok 10260ThailandTel: +66-2 399 4561Fax: +66-2 398 9838E-mail: [email protected]
UNITED KINGDOM
Headquarters
Sarah C. North, Marine Networks Manager,
Met Office
Observations Supply - Marine NetworksFitzRoy RoadExeterDevon EX1 3PBUnited KingdomTel: +44 1392 885617Fax: +44 1392 885681E-mail: [email protected] orGroup E-mail: [email protected]
David Knott, Marine Technical Coordinator,
Met Office
Observations - Marine NetworksFitzRoy RoadExeterDevon EX1 3PBUnited KingdomTel: +44 1392 88 5714Fax: +44 1392 885681E-mail: [email protected] orGroup E-mail: [email protected]
Marine Division, Global Environment and
Marine Department.
Japan Meteorological Agency1-3-4 Otemachi, Chiyoda-kuTokyo, 100-8122JapanTel: +81-3 3212 8341 ext. 5144Fax: +81-3 3211 6908Email: [email protected]
Scotland
Emma Steventon
Port Meteorological Officer, Met OfficeSaughton HouseBroomhouse DriveEDINBURGH EH11 3XQUnited KingdomTel: +44 (0)131 528 7318Mobile : +44 (0) 7753880209E-mail: [email protected] orE-mail: [email protected]
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South West England & South Wales
Lalinda Namalarachchi
Port Meteorological Officer, Met Officec/o Room 231/19National Oceanography Centre, SouthamptonUniversity of Southampton, Waterfront CampusEuropean WaySOUTHAMPTON SO14 3ZHUnited KingdomTel: +44 2380 638339Mobile : +44 (0) 7753 880468E-mail: [email protected] orEmail: [email protected]
South East England
Joe Maguire
Port Meteorological OfficerMet Office127 Clerkenwell RoadLondon EC1R 5LPUnited KingdomTel: +44 2072047453Mobile : +44 (0) 7753 880 467E-mail: [email protected] orE-mail: [email protected]
North England & North Wales
Tony Eastham
Port Meteorological OfficerMet OfficeUnit 4, Holland Business Park,Spa Lane,Lathom, L40 6LNUnited KingdomTel: +44 (0)1695 550834Mobile : +44 (0) 7753 880 484E-mail: [email protected] orE-mail: [email protected]
NOAA Weather Radio Network(1) 162.550 mHz(2) 162.400 mHz(3) 162.475 mHz(4) 162.425 mHz(5) 162.450 mHz(6) 162.500 mHz(7) 162.525 mHz
Channel numbers, e.g. (WX1, WX2) etc. haveno special significance but are often designatedthis way in consumer equipment. Otherchannel numbering schemes are also prevalent.
The NOAA Weather Radio network providesvoice broadcasts of local and coastal marineforecasts on a continuous cycle. The forecastsare produced by local National Weather ServiceForecast Offices.
Coastal stations also broadcast predicted tidesand real time observations from buoys andcoastal meteorological stations operatedby NOAA’s National Data Buoy Center. Basedon user demand, and where feasible, Offshoreand Open Lake forecasts are broadcast aswell.
The NOAA Weather Radio network providesnear continuous coverage of the coastal U.S,Great Lakes, Hawaii, and populated Alaskacoastline. Typical coverage is 25 nautical milesoffshore, but may extend much further in certainareas.
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U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCENational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Data Buoy CenterBuilding 3203Stennis Space Center, MS 39529-6000Attn: Mariners Weather Log
