INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY

Int. J. Climatol. 20: 229–230 (2000)

BOOK REVIEWS

MULTIDIMENSIONAL GLOBAL CHANGE, K.Y. Kon-dratyev, John Wiley, Chichester, in association with PraxisPublishing, Chichester. No. of pages: xiii+761. Price £85.00(hardback). ISBN 0-471-97179-0.

Since mankind has been causing global environmental changeit is appropriate that a scientist should examine the trend ofevents. Society has often found the scientist’s message unpalat-able and has usually sought to discount it, a favourite tech-nique being to argue that scientists disagree with one anotherand it is politicians who have to make the decisions. Theytherefore treat the dispute as if in a court of law with them-selves (the politicians) as judge and jury, who will neverthelessemploy their own chosen expert witnesses.

Kondratyev’s continually recurring theme is that the lawupholds a quite inappropriate economic system, usually calledcapitalism which is a misnomer for The Marketplace of Greed ;and this is assumed to activate a ‘consumer’s democracy’. It isbased on economic theory which pretends to arise naturally,although it uses several erroneous assumptions. Instead oflooking squarely at the predicament we are moving into, thepoliticians refuse to look beyond the technological dreamlandof 5 or 10 years from now, and which will increase the numberof people in extreme poverty and will waste extravagantly themineral and land resources as if they were income, and not seethem as the capital treasure that they are.

The essentials are described in the Introduction and Chapter1 which occupy 256 pages with ten and a half more pages ofreferences to the introduction and 11 and a half more forChapter 1 (i.e. about 490 individual references of which 44 areto the authors own work). Fortunately I can report thatMeadows et al. (Limits to Growth, 1972), Bruntland (Report,1989) and Lovelock (Gaia, 1989) are included while onlyBruntland is indexed, although none of the three is describedin any detail.

Chapter 2 with 294 pages is virtually a book on its own,describing the activities of the numerous research exercisessupported by individual governments, and the many interna-tional cooperative projects each with its own ACRONYM(which is explained somewhere or other according to noparticular rule other than probably at first use, which may beanywhere). But those which are contrived names for exercisesare used alongside those which are shorthand for technicalterms like SAT (surface air temperature) or chemical formulaslike NO (nitric oxide). The lengthy sentences with their super-fluity of long words describe the generalities of the tasks butalmost never the advances in the science or more importantlythe deficiencies of the computer models used to represent thereal world quantitatively. This chapter has an additional 38pages containing 264 references of which 43 are to the author’s

own papers. Only 26 are to papers written before 1990 and thisgives the impression that the impact of our species on theworld we live in was not considered by scientists to be ofinterest before this date.

Malthus does not appear in the index although he is men-tioned but only to explain why he was wrong. This is very oddbecause, as Meadows and others have explained, he gave theclearest warning of all of the predicament which Kondratyevhimself is at great pains and length to explain. Kondratyev’sbook (the one reviewed here) is therefore important readingfor parliamentarians, and the members of committees ap-pointed by them. It is certainly a better guide for them thanthe reports written by the chairmen (who are often alsoscientists) of the committees they have appointed to give theadvice. Instant answers and soundbites never do justice to theproblems that people are all-too-slowly becoming aware of.

Kondratyev is a prolific writer of quite readable material.He certainly convinced himself of the urgency of the message.The volume of scientific work performed to advance thefrontiers of what might be called scientific truth demonstratesby Chapter 3 that any legislator attempting to discover what isrequired to get our economic criteria on to the right track,needs the advice of a scientist not in his pay: or should get togrips with this chapter.

The Chapters 3, 4 and 5 deal with the more specific contri-butions required from Europe, China, and Russia, respec-tively, to restoring humanity on a sustainable path.

The earlier chapters have their own intermediate and finalconclusions, which would be good points for the reader’srevision. The final pages give us a useful summary conclusionwhich is put forward as the equivalent of an Earth Charter.This is followed by another 21 pages of ‘additional references’!

The Preface summarizes the objective for scientists, as ex-pressed by Kofi Annan: ‘The major challenge for the nextcentury will be whether we can feed, clothe and provide forourselves without destroying the natural resources base onwhich our existence depends’. Based on the recent behaviourof most governments in recent decades, this will not be at-tempted without doubling the present number of desperatepoor to well over two billion, and greatly heightening today’spredicament. They don’t offer meaning to the simple word‘enough’.

R.S. SCORER

Imperial College of Science, Technology and MedicineLondon, UK

Copyright © 2000 Royal Meteorological Society