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10/11/2015 18:55 1
10/11/2015 18:55
Introduction, Summary and cyber attack Dido Harding
H1 Review Dido Harding
H1 Financials and Outlook Iain Torrens
Longer term strategy Dido Harding
2
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10/11/2015 18:55 4
£76m
£110m
Y-O-Y Revenue Growth
3.1% 3.6% 3.5%
5.9%
Q1'15 Q2'15 Q1'16 Q2'16
+3.3%
+4.7%
£110m £90m
Opex and SAC
£370m
H1’15
£397m
H1’16
+7.3%
Dividend per share
+15%
H1’15 H1’16
4.60p
5.29p
EBITDA Margin
12.6%
9.9%
H1'15 H1'16
Quad-play gaining traction, 12.2% year-on-year growth in RGUs
Making TalkTalk Simpler benefits £6m Making TalkTalk Simpler costs £15m In line with commitment
Opex
SAC
Opex
SAC
+12.9%
0%
10/11/2015 18:55 5
H1 FY16 H2 FY16
Gross Profit from revenue growth and better mix
£40m-£45m
c£40m
Lower Opex as transformation
costs fall out
Lower SAC from
changes in channel mix
and CPA c£5m
Materially higher MTTS Benefits
than in H1
£25m-£30m
Before impact of cyber attack
£90m
£200m-£210m
10/11/2015 18:55 6
21st October
Websites started running slowly, brought websites down, ransom demand
Informed law enforcement agencies, criminal investigation launched, started internal investigation
22nd October
Informed all customers via the media and via email of the potential risk so we could help them and they could protect themselves
Board launched an independent review led by James Powell with support from PWC
6th November
Confirmed that the attack was limited to 156,959 customers of which 15,656 bank account numbers and sort codes stolen
None of the sensitive personal information on its own can be used to steal from our customers
Now
We have contacted all customers whose personal data has been stolen to explain what happened and to offer support and advice
TalkTalk sales and service websites operational
Contacting all customers irrespective of whether directly affected, to explain what happened, what we are doing to safeguard their data going forward, and offer an opportunity to upgrade at no extra cost
10/11/2015 18:55 7
Direct Debit Cancellations Unsolicited Requests to Cease
Loyalty Save Rates Customer Feedback
October 27th-29th October
29th Oct – 2nd Nov
32%
29%
34%
30th Oct 6th Nov
48%
54%
Brand Consideration*
“I appreciate TalkTalk’s honesty in the way they are dealing with this”*
* TNS Brand Tracker * ICM poll of TalkTalk Customers
10/11/2015 18:55
One off costs incurred of £30m-£35m
› Incident response and customer communications
› Incremental call volumes
› Internal IT costs and consulting
› Foregone revenues from loss of online capability for 3 weeks, and immediate churn
› Estimated cost of free upgrade offer to all customers
Early indicators of customer response are encouraging
› Most customers think we have done the right thing
› Online sales and service platforms now back in operation
Too early at this stage to assess the wider impact of this attack but we remain confident of:
› a material increase in profits in H2 FY16 on the back of existing momentum in revenue and Making TalkTalk Simpler
› A further significant increase in profits in FY17 as MTTS programmes complete
More clarity will emerge as we trade through Q3 and Q4
8
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Non-pay disconnections accretive to margin
H1: c£1.5m
H2: c£3.5m
On-net net adds positive in Q2
72 8
4.18m 4.11m 4.10m
Opening On-Net Base @ 31st March
Non-Pay Disconnects
Adjusted On-Net Base @ 31st March
H1 Net Adds
On-Net Base @ 30th Sept
10/11/2015 18:55 11
1.04 1.12
1.24 1.35
1.46 1.56
1.64
0.3%
0.6%
0.9%
1.2%
1.5%
1.8%
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
H1'13 H2'13 H1'14 H2'14 H1'15 H2'15 H1'16
RGU Churn
Churn broadly flat y-o-y in H1
Difference between 1.4% and 1.5%: c8,000 customers
Q2 churn modestly higher than Q1
Trend improving through:
Benefits of Making TalkTalk Simpler
Growing triple and quad play penetration
TV and mobile customers churn at roughly half the rate of dual play customers
176,000 RGUs added in H1 (+12.2% y-o-y)
RGU per customer up to 1.64 (+12.5% y-o-y)
10/11/2015 18:55
73 142
207 308
479 578
1% 2%
4%
6%
8%
13%
16%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
H1'13 H2'13 H1'14 H2'14 H1'15 H2'15 H1'16
12
Strong growth in Mobile and Fibre penetration
SIM-only demand growing - 14.4% market share in H1 FY16 vs 10.3% in H2 FY15
Strong take-up of bundled SIM (quad-play) – Plus TV (33%)
Fibre self-install (>90%) driving demand
TV growth a function of disciplined trading strategy to focus on lower CPA Mobile and Fibre
Mobile, Fibre and TV customers continuing to generate highest Net Promoter Scores and exhibit lowest churn 0 230
557
917
1,217 1,414 1,439
0%
7%
16%
26%
33%
37% 39%
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
H1'13 H2'13 H1'14 H2'14 H1'15 H2'15 H1'16
117 175
236 284
348
464
596
4%
5%
7% 8%
10%
12%
16%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
H1'13 H2'13 H1'14 H2'14 H1'15 H2'15 H1'16
10/11/2015 18:55 13
Retail customers c81% of on-net; Wholesale c19% of on-net base
Step change in FY14 reflects acquisition of Post Office contract
Wholesale customers involve long term established relationships including several multi-year contracts
Lower ARPU and gross margin than Retail at c40%
Minimal costs to serve
No bad debt or SAC exposure
EBITDA comparable to Consumer base
TTB is only other national wholesale broadband operator in UK market other than BT
Retail: 3,489
Retail: 3,433
Retail: 3,440
Retail: 3,373
Retail: 3,326
Wholesale: 381
Wholesale: 627
Wholesale: 737
Wholesale: 732
Wholesale: 771
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 OpeningBase
H1FY16 ClosingBase
3.870m 4.060m
4.177m 4.105m 4.097m
* Adjusted for 72k disconnections
10/11/2015 18:55 14
ON-NET
CORPORATE
Data & Next Gen Voice
Phone & BB (retail and w’sale)
Carrier
Legacy Voice
Growth
Gross Margin
20%+
0
-20%
TalkTalk Group
Carrier
£550m+ revenue in FY15 across three lines
Off-Net
Corporate
On-Net
Phone & BB (retail and w’sale)
Data & Next Gen Voice
Legacy Voice
10/11/2015 18:55
H1'15 H1'16
15
Corporate Revenue
Ethernet & EFM Lines (‘000)
7.1
10.2
13.7
17.4
21.6
26.2
30.7
H1'13 H2'13 H1'14 H2'14 H1'15 H2'15 H1'16
+6.2%
Data
Carrier
Voice
£177m £188m
6.2% growth in Corporate revenue (+6.7% in Q2)
+15% growth in Data revenues; Carrier revenues +34%
Over 30,000 business Data lines
Accelerating demand for Ethernet – conversion
hampered by lagging BTOR performance
VOIP proposition (powered by tiPicall) launched in
October; strong growth expected through H2
Ethernet pipeline
+15%
+34%
-11%
32%
37%
42%
2,850
3,050
3,250
3,450
Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15
Total WIP Over 65 Days
10/11/2015 18:55 16
Making TalkTalk Simpler
Simpler network Simpler fault management
Simpler order provisioning
Simpler omni-channel service
Simpler credit and billing
A simpler business to run
Operating cost savings
SAC reduction from lower
churn and CPA
An enabler of revenue growth
A transformed brand
reputation
£90m-£100m savings
10/11/2015 18:55 17
Systems and Process
Development Testing Rollout
Remove Structural Costs
The drivers of cost are coming down in trials:
Lower call volumes
Less manual provisioning
Improved customer satisfaction
As systems roll out variable costs are coming out in scale:
Fewer engineer visits
Fewer router replacements
Lower bad debt
Lower retention costs
Lower SAC
Lower sales leakage
We began the process of removing structural costs in H1:
Advance notice to reduce headcount in existing call centres
Started RFP to consolidate our call centre footprint
Expect new footprint in place over 12-18m
Completed internal restructure in October – costs come out in H2FY16
H1 Savings
H2 Savings
FY17 Savings
£6m
£25m-£30m
£90m-£100m
10/11/2015 18:55 18
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H1’16 H1’15 YoY
£’m £’m
Headline Revenue 912 871 +4.7%
Gross Profit 487 480 +1.5%
Margin 53.4% 55.1%
Operating costs (245) (217) +12.9%
SAC & Marketing (152) (153)
Headline EBITDA 90 110
Margin 9.9% 12.6%
Profit after tax 11 27
Headline EPS 1.2p 2.9p
Dividend per Share 5.29p 4.60p +15.0%
10/11/2015 18:55 20
£871m
£912m
H1 FY15 On-Net Off-Net Data LegacyVoice
Carrier H1 FY16
+4.2%
+3.1% +3.6%
+4.2%
+6.0%
+3.5%
+5.9%
+4.7%
Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16
On-net revenue growth of 7.6% (Q2 +8.9%), supported by ARPU growth in H1 of 6.1% from RGU penetration, pricing and proposition, offset by declining voice usage and mix
Off-net decline reflects sale of consumer off-net base to Fleur
Continuing growth of Data and Carrier in Corporate, offset by Legacy Voice
H2 Outlook
On-net: Continued RGU progress; pricing and proposition
Corporate: Accelerating data growth from pipeline. Carrier expected to be flat year-on-year in H2
£49m £19m
£7m £10m £14m
10/11/2015 18:55 21
55.1%
54.0%
53.4%
H1 FY15 COGS benefits H1 FY15 Base Non-PayDisconnections
Pricing &Proposition
Corporate Data Mobile DataUsage
Mix H1 FY16
Phasing of COGS benefits (lower in H1 FY16 vs H1 FY15)
Pricing & propositions
Growth in high margin Ethernet and Data Solutions
Mobile Data Usage driven temporarily higher by All-in SIM
Mix driven by growth in Fibre and declining voice usage
H2 Outlook
COGS benefit including impact of non-pay disconnections
Lower mobile data usage impact
Accelerating data revenues in Corporate, flattening Carrier revenues
10/11/2015 18:55
£217m
£245m
£15m
£13m
£5m £1m £6m
H1 FY15 MTTS Infrastructure Innovation Other MTTS H1 FY16
22
MTTS: one-off transformation costs
Infrastructure: ongoing investment in technology, network security and network capability,
Innovation costs relate to Mobile and FTTP trial, and blinkbox
H2 Outlook
Half on half reduction in double-running and transformation costs
Procurement benefits H2 weighted
Significant step up in MTTS benefits
10/11/2015 18:55 23
£153m £152m
H1 FY15 Broadband TV Fibre Mobile Marketing / Other H1 FY16
Volume
CPA
Volume
CPA Volume
CPA Volume
CPA
176,000 RGUs added in period
Disciplined trading approach - lower broadband and TV volumes and controlled CPA
Higher fibre volumes at significantly lower CPA from high percentage of self-install in mix
Mobile CPA benefited from high proportion of SIMs in mix
H2 OUTLOOK
Significant reduction from improved channel mix and falling CPA
10/11/2015 18:55
Underlying £51m
24
£’m H1 FY16
EBITDA 90
Working Capital 32
CAPEX (84)
OFCF 38
Interest and Tax (11)
FCF 27
ESOT share divestment 61
Acquisitions (12)
Exceptional Items (33)
Dividends (85)
NET CASH FLOW (42)
Net Debt (631)
Innovation £15m
MTTS £18m
£84m
H1
Underlying £39m
Innovation £11m
MTTS £16m
£66m
H2
MTTS £20m
Migrations £13m
£33m
£24m
H1 H2
Migrations £5m
MTTS £19m
Capex / Revenue
FY16: 7%-8% FY17: 6%-6.5%
Pre-cyber attack
10/11/2015 18:55
£200m-£210m
25
£631m
H1
Net Debt / EBITDA 2.8x
(32)
(66)
(24)
(14)
(49)
EBITDA W/C Capex Exceptionals Interest Tax
Dividends
£620m - £630m
H2 Acquisitions
(14)
(30-35)
£650m - £665m
H2
Net Debt / EBITDA c2.4x-2.5x
Net Debt / EBITDA c2.1x
10/11/2015 18:55 26
£90m
£200m-£210m
H1 FY16 H2 FY16
Gross Profit
£40m-£45m
c£40m
Opex
SAC c£5m
MTTS Benefits
£25m-£30m Revenue +5% GM% > +100bps vs H1
Pricing & Proposition RGU penetration Positive Mix Effects Data and Next Gen Voice
MTTS costs materially lower vs H1
Continued network and IT investment
Improving channel mix and falling Cost Per Add
vs £6m in H1
c£4m c£21m c£4m
Total MTTS benefit: £25m-£30m
10/11/2015 18:55
H1 results in line with plan
Impact of cyber attack will become clearer through Q3 and Q4
Robust and detailed plan in place to deliver strong uplift in EBITDA during H2
Net Debt / EBITDA in line with plan; expect deleveraging through H2
Interim dividend +15%; expect to grow Final Dividend by 15%
27
10/11/2015 18:55 28
10/11/2015 18:55 29
2006-2010 2010-2013 2014-2017
Free Broadband AOL acquisition
Tiscali acquisition
• Exponential Growth
• Growing complexity
• Poor customer experience
Tiscali Integration Stabilising Customer
experience Getting ready for TV
and mobile
• Network synergies • Back office cost
savings • Fewer calls to TT,
fewer call centres
Launched and scaling quad play Scaling B2B
Tackling root cause systems and process issues through Making TalkTalk
Simpler
• Transforming customer experience • Lower operating costs, lower churn
and lower SAC • Transforming brand reputation
driving sustained revenue growth
2017+
Scaling Mobile Scaling Fibre To The Premise
• An integrated fixed and
mobile network • A leading value for money
brand serving consumers and businesses
• Generating significant free cashflows
10/11/2015 18:55 30
Mobile
New billing system on track
Expect to migrate to TEF network in Q1 FY17
Begun planning core thick build
Femtos being tested
3/O2 referred to Phase 2 review; significant merger remedies expected
Fibre to the Premise
Announced pricing for TalkTalk UFO 1Gig at copper prices
Contracted build in York for <£500 / home passed
Received sufficient pre-registration interest to commence Phase 2 of build
260 trialists signed up to date from 1,200 homes passed in Phase 1 of build
On track for full consumer launch in Q3
Laying the foundations to build an integrated, value for money fixed and mobile network
10/11/2015 18:55
Strong acceleration in revenue growth in H1
On track to deliver significant step up in H2 profits as expected
Cyber attack smaller than initially thought
Putting our customers first throughout this is the right thing to do for the business and shareholders
Confident in the medium and long term future of TalkTalk as the value for money provider in the growing quad play and B2B market
31
10/11/2015 18:55 32
10/11/2015 18:55 33
£m H1 FY16 HEADLINE
H1 FY16 EXCEPTIONALS
H1 FY16 STATUTORY
EBITDA 90 (17) 73
Depreciation (36) (36)
Amortisation (23) (5) (28)
Share of JV’s (6) (6)
Interest (11) (11)
PROFIT BEFORE TAX 14 (22) (8)
Tax (3) 4 1
Effective Tax Rate 20%
PROFIT AFTER TAX 11 (18) (7)
EPS 1.2p (0.7)p
DPS 5.29p 5.29p
10/11/2015 18:55 34
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1
KPIs On-Net Broadband & Voice (m) 3.162 3.295 3.402 3.570 3.656 3.775 3.728 Broadband Only (m) 0.642 0.575 0.526 0.490 0.449 0.402 0.369 Total On-net Base (m) 3.804 3.870 3.928 4.060 4.105 4.177 4.097
On-net Churn (per month) 1.6% 1.5% 1.6% 1.6% 1.4% 1.3% 1.5%
Mobile (m) 0.117 0.175 0.236 0.284 0.348 0.464 0.596 Fibre (m) 0.030 0.073 0.142 0.207 0.308 0.479 0.578 TV (m) 0.000 0.230 0.557 0.917 1.217 1.414 1.439
Ethernet and EFM lines (units) 7,100 10,200 13,700 17,400 21,600 26,200 30,700
Off-net Broadband (m) 0.239 0.193 0.148 0.136 0.116 0.106 0.092 Voice (m) 0.407 0.358 0.315 0.282 0.242 0.226 0.209
Total Broadband (m) 4.043 4.063 4.076 4.196 4.221 4.283 4.189
Revenue (£m) On-net 573 597 612 642 648 685 697 Off-net 95 83 69 59 46 41 27 Corporate 160 162 162 178 177 198 188 Total 828 842 843 879 871 924 912
On-net ARPU (£) 25.27 25.93 26.16 26.79 26.45 27.57 28.08
10/11/2015 18:55 35
As at 10 November 2015
Revenue (£m) EBITDA (£m) EBITDA %
Analyst FY16 FY17 FY16 FY17 FY16 FY17
1 1,812 1,724 254 231 14.0% 13.4%
2 1,867 1,948 313 388 16.8% 19.9%
3 1,881 1,983 300 410 15.9% 20.7%
4 1,881 1,966 298 361 15.8% 18.4%
5 1,829 1,821 261 349 14.3% 19.2%
6 1,881 1,995 315 440 16.7% 22.1%
7 1,883 1,971 305 346 16.2% 17.6%
8 1,891 1,951 318 458 16.8% 23.5%
9 1,794 1,721 297 372 16.6% 21.6%
10 1,842 1,943 295 365 16.0% 18.8%
11 1,879 1,959 284 475 15.1% 24.2%
12 1,873 1,891 299 436 16.0% 23.1%
13 1,856 1,940 300 406 16.2% 20.9%
14 1,927 2,001 292 333 15.2% 16.6%
15 1,877 1,961 295 424 15.7% 21.6%
16 1,904 2,002 294 311 15.4% 15.5%
Consensus 1,867 1,924 295 382 15.8% 19.8%
Revenue growth 4.0% 3.0%