MSDI - Elections DA

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MSDI 2008 Elections DA

Elections DA Index

Elections DA Index..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................11NC Shell..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................2Now Senator Obama holds a 7 point lead in national polls, according to Real Clear Politics. Obama is leading in every recent national poll with an average

spread over McCain of 48.2 percent to 41.6 percent. In one recent poll, conducted by Newsweek, Obama holds a 15 point lead over McCain. So whathappened? Some analyses say that Obama got a "bump" out of clinching the nomination. But a look at the polling data shows that the Illinois senator has

never trailed McCain in any poll conducted since May 4 of this year. Obama also leads in several key battleground states and among several importantdemographic groups. In Ohio, a state that Clinton carried in the primary, Obama now leads McCain by an average 5 points. In Pennsylvania, he's up by 7points. Obama also holds a narrow lead in Virginia, and is closing the gap in Florida. Even more astonishing, Obama is neck-and-neck with McCain in the

GOP stronghold of Georgia, according to one recent poll. .........................................................................................................................................................................21NC Shell..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................4*uniqueness*................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. ...5Obama will win............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... .6AT: McCain will win cuz of the GOP base................................................................................................................................................................................................... .7AT: polls are flawed.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................8AT: Diebold/ Vote tampering / cheating.........................................................................................................................................................................................................9Too Close to Call............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................11McCain will win.............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................12

Uniqueness / Republicans will win...............................................................................................................................................................................................................13*Links*....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... ....15Alternative Energy : Popular............................................................................................................................................................................................................... ........16Climate change action : Popular..................................................................................................................................................................................................................17Alt Energy Tax Credits : Popular.................................................................................................................................................................................................................18Alternative Energy : Popular (Democrats)........................................................................................................................................................................................ ......19Cap and trade : Popular....................................................................................................................................................................................................................... ........20CAF Standards: Popular............................................................................................................................................................................................................................21Wind energy : Popular..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................22Biofuels : Popular..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................23Nuclear power : Popular...............................................................................................................................................................................................................................24Energy policy key to election........................................................................................................................................................................................................................25No Link / AT: Energy Policy key to Election..............................................................................................................................................................................................26No link / AT: Lichtman evidence..................................................................................................................................................................................................................27No Link Bush popularity doesnt affect McCain....................................................................................................................................................................................28Moreover, detailed polling in the three most important states in the Electoral College shows the vast majority of those who say their frustration with Bush hasturned them off to McCain are voters unlikely to vote Republican in the first place.............................................................................................................................28*impacts*........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................30Impact XT Yucca Mountain / Yucca = groundwater contamination................................................................................................................................................. ....31Impact XT Yucca Mountain / Earthquake risk is high...........................................................................................................................................................................32Impact XT Yucca Mountain / Transportation of waste bad...................................................................................................................................................................33Impact XT Yucca Mountain / AT: On-site storage bad args..................................................................................................................................................................35Impact defense Yucca Mountain...............................................................................................................................................................................................................36Obama Good Social Security scenario......................................................................................................................................................................................................39Impact XT / Social Security - Obama opposes privatizing SS...................................................................................................................................................................40Impact XT / Social Security - SSR Bad Hegemony.................................................................................................................................................................................41Impact XT/ Social Security - SSR Bad Deficits................................................................................................................................................................................. ......42Impact XT/ Social Security - SSR Bad Transition Costs................................................................................................................................................................ ........43Impact XT / Social Security - SSR Bad Markets.....................................................................................................................................................................................44Impacts / SSR Good - Growth.....................................................................................................................................................................................................................45Impacts / SSR Good AT: Transition Costs................................................................................................................................................................................................46Impacts / SSR Good AT: Deficits...............................................................................................................................................................................................................47Impact XT / SSR Good AT: Risky Investments.......................................................................................................................................................................................48

Impact XT / SSR Good AT: Wealth Gap.............................................................................................................................................................................................. ....49Impact turn / China Bashing Module..........................................................................................................................................................................................................50XT China Bashing / Dems = china bashing.................................................................................................................................................................................................51Impacts - China bashing ..............................................................................................................................................................................................................................52China Bashing Good - Sino-Japanese Relations.........................................................................................................................................................................................53China Bashing Good - Japanese Economy..................................................................................................................................................................................................54China Bashing Good - Steel..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................55

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A. Uniqueness - Obama is winning now

The Daily Voice 8 (June 23. The Frontrunner http://thedailyvoice.com/voice/2008/06/the-frontrunner-000783.php)

Now Senator Obama holds a 7 point lead in national polls, according to Real Clear Politics. Obama isleading in every recent national poll with an average spread over McCain of 48.2 percent to 41.6 percent.In one recent poll, conducted by Newsweek, Obama holds a 15 point lead over McCain. So what happened? Someanalyses say that Obama got a "bump" out of clinching the nomination. But a look at the polling data shows that theIllinois senator has never trailed McCain in any poll conducted since May 4 of this year. Obama alsoleads in several key battleground states and among several important demographic groups. In Ohio, a state thatClinton carried in the primary, Obama now leads McCain by an average 5 points. In Pennsylvania, he's up by 7 points. Obama also holds a narrow lead inVirginia, and is closing the gap in Florida. Even more astonishing, Obama is neck-and-neck with McCain in the GOP stronghold of Georgia, according to onerecent poll.

B. Links-

1. McCain will lose the election unless Bush adopts popular domestic policies in his second-term. His fateis determined by Bushs ability to meet challenges.Lichtman 2005, (Allan J. Lichtman, prof of History @ American University and a national political analyst. The Keys to the White House: TheSurefire Guide to Predicting the Next President page x thru xi)

Retrospectively, the Keys account for the results of every presidential election from 1860 through NW. much longer than any other prediction system.

Prospectively, the Keys predicted well ahead of time the popular-vote winners of every presidential election from 1984through 2004. They called Vice President George H. W Bush's victory in the spring of 1988 when he trailed Mike Dukakis by nearly twenty points inthe polls and was being written off by the pundits. The Vice President defied the polls and the pundits, not because he discovered negative ads or

refurbished his image, but because voters ratified the performance of the Reagan administrationfour years of prosperity, the defusing of the Cold War,and a scandal that faded away. In 1992, George H. W, Bush lost his chance for a second term, as the Keys predicted, when a sour economy and a lackof domestic accomplishment tarnished his record as president. The Keys predicted President George W. Bush's 2004 re-election in April of 2003, a yearand a half before a contest that pollsters found too close to call right up to election eve. As a sitting president with no prospective challenger in his ownparty or a serious third-party competitor, Bush's mixed record of accomplishment at home and abroad was sufficient to anticipate in his victory in 2004.'

Likewise, although President Bush will not be on the ticket in 2008, the fate of his would-be successor in the RepublicanParty will depend upon the president's performance in his second term_ if the Bush administration fails to meet thedomestic and foreign policy challenges of the next four years, voters will dismiss the Republicans, regardless of theDemocratic nominee, Moreover, according to the Keys, the Democrats will have structural advantages in 2008 that they lacked in2004, The Republicans will not be fielding a sitting president. which results in the loss of Key 3 and will likely confront a bruising battle for their party'snomination which forfeits Key 2. Thus, two Keys that the GOP held in 2004 are in jeopardy for 2008, making a Democraticvictory likely that year, despite the setbacks al the polls that Democrats have suffered thus far in the twenty-first century.Democrats, moreover, need not worry about battling for their party's nomination; history shows thatnomination struggles

within the out-party do not subvert its chances to recapture the White House. A vigorous challenging party usually has multiplepresidential contenders, each of whom professes to have the skills, personality, and policies needed to regain the White House. A spirited out-partycontest for the presidential nomination might even signify the vulnerability of the party in power, as candidates compete for what appears to be apromising nomination. The greatest popular vote victory by a challenging party candidate in American history was achieved by Republican WarrenHarding in 1920 after a deadlocked convention nominated him as a compromise candidate on the tenth ballot.

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2. or

Public supports alternative energy incentives

John Podesta January 23, 2008 http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2008/01/podesta_testimony.html Cap, Auction, and Trade: Allowance Auctions andRevenue Recycling Under Carbon Cap-and-Trade Testimony Before the House Select Committee for Energy Independence and Global Warming

We recommend that the remaining half of the revenue go to spur science and technology innovation and to drive our transition to a low-carbon economy by funding

research and development, tax incentives, and other initiatives. And the public supports this: 71 percent of Americans are ready to quicklychange from using coal and oil to using clean, alternative energy. Transportation and electricity account for 72 percent ofU.S. CO2 emissions from energy, so our policies focus on these two sectors.

3. Energy policy is a foremost issue for voters in the election

Curtis Brainard Tue 10 Jun200810:50 AM http://www.cjr.org/the_observatory/turning_point_energy.php Turning Point: Energy Finally, real differencesbetween the candidates for the press to explore

As much as editors have come to love articles about green power sources like solar and wind, the most pressing questions for the candidates revolve around the our

traditional fossil favoritescoal and oil. Foremost on voters minds are skyrocketing gas prices. Pump pain already sparked a pressfrenzy in April when McCain and then Hillary Clinton called for a federal gas-tax holiday over the summer. Clintons rival, Barack Obama, vociferouslyopposed the idea, calling it mere politicking that would do little to help drivers. With the general election now effectively under way, its timerevisit this integral subjectwhether its the price of oil, cap-and-trade legislation, or some other energy efficiencymeasure, voters must know if and when each candidate would resort to some form ofsafety valve that would pull theplug on runaway electricity or gasoline prices.

C. Impact

1. Obama will block Yucca Mountain even an expanded Yucca cant handle all of the current nuclearwaste

Reno Gazette-Journal(Nevada) November 2, 2007HEADLINE: Opposition to Yucca Mountain growing on the campaign trail

If the Democrats retake the White House and keep their hold on Congress in 2008,the Yucca Mountain project wouldappear tobe dead. The growing opposition is understandable.The problems with the plan and the licensing processhave been piling up,and it'snow recognized that even an expanded Yucca Mountain site won't be enough to handle all of the nuclear waste thathasbeen building up at nuclear power plantsaround the country and is expected to be generated by new plants in the works.

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http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2008/01/podesta_testimony.htmlhttp://www.cjr.org/the_observatory/turning_point_energy.phphttp://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/09/business/09gas.html?hphttp://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/09/business/09gas.html?hphttp://www.cjr.org/the_observatory/from_gas_tax_to_safety_valve.phphttp://www.cjr.org/the_observatory/from_gas_tax_to_safety_valve.phphttp://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2008/01/podesta_testimony.htmlhttp://www.cjr.org/the_observatory/turning_point_energy.phphttp://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/09/business/09gas.html?hphttp://www.cjr.org/the_observatory/from_gas_tax_to_safety_valve.php


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1NC Shell

2. Nuclear storage at Yucca risks Nuclear VolcanoesNew Scientist, 8/24/2002

IF A volcano ever erupted beneath the planned nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain in Nevada it could cause adevastating explosion that sent high-level nuclear waste spewing into the atmosphere.Yucca Mountain lies about 145 kilometres north-west of Las Vegas, within an active volcanic field. An eruption at the site is considered extremelyunlikely, but it is possible. There are six craters within 20 kilometres of the site, including Lathrop Wells volcano, which formed by eruptions just 80,000years ago. A study in 2000 estimated that there was a 1 in 1000 chance of an eruption at the site during the 10,000 years it will take for the radioactivityof the waste stored there to dissipate. And a recent report suggests that a more active cluster of volcanoes 100 kilometres to the north could be an even biggerthreat .

Now Andrew Woods of the BP Institute at the University of Cambridge and his colleagues have found that if an eruption occurred beneath the site, arisingsheet of magma could burst into the proposed storage tunnels 200 to 300 metres below the surface. The pressure in thehollow tunnels would be much lower than in the surrounding rock, so once the magma broke through it would gush into the tunnels at tens or hundreds of metres per

second.

The heat would be enough to deform and rupture the 7-centimetre-thick walls of the waste canisters in just 20minutes, the researchers say.Worse, if the storage tunnels were open to the main access tunnel, this could act as an easy escape route for the magma to

reach the surface, sending nuclear waste several miles skyward in an explosive eruption. According to Woods's model, even if thetunnels were blocked, the magma could still build up enoughpressure to break through to the surface . The study, which was funded by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, is published in Geophysical ResearchLetters (DOI: 10.1029/2002GL014665).

3. Extinctionthis must come first because of magnitudeComarow, 2001Yucca Mountain: Time to Think the Unthinkable Testimony presented at US Department of Energy Public Hearing 12-8-2001by David Comarowhttp://www.nuclearfiles.org/menu/key-issues/nuclear-energy/issues/yucca-mountain-testimony-comarow_2001-12-08.htm

None of that is impossible, and therefore none of that is unthinkable. We are not talking about the short-term or even long-term economicprosperity of Las Vegas. We are talking about nothing less than the survival of the human race. Lest you dismiss this as just more fanatichyperbole, let this be a reality check: Yucca Mountain will hold all of the high level nuclear waste ever produced from every nuclear power plant in the US - with about

10% additional defense waste -- some 77,000 tons. The danger of getting it here aside for a moment, the amount of radioactivity andenergy to be stored in one place, under that relatively tiny little bump in the desert is easily enough to contaminate andsterilize the entire biosphere. Is that unthinkable? No. If it is possible, it is thinkable. When you are talking about these types of risks,risks that can endanger entire segments of our population, let alone the entire earth, then the risk analysis must go intohigher gear. It is not enough to merely calculate the risks as "extremely low" - because there is no "low enough" when theconsequences are so cataclysmic. We accept certain risks, which are relatively high - 50,000 traffic deaths per year forexample. But, as terrible as those deaths and injuries are, they do not imperil our culture, our nation or the survival of thehuman race. We are less willing to accept such risks when the consequences happen all at once -- plane crashes for example. That is our human nature. We arewilling to spend much more to lower the risk of death in groups than chronic deaths spread out over time and space. As a people, as caretakers for futurepeople, we cannot create unnecessary catastrophic risks like biosphereicide, the agonizing death of billions.

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http://www.nuclearfiles.org/menu/key-issues/nuclear-energy/issues/yucca-mountain-testimony-comarow_2001-12-08.htmhttp://www.nuclearfiles.org/menu/key-issues/nuclear-energy/issues/yucca-mountain-testimony-comarow_2001-12-08.htmhttp://www.nuclearfiles.org/menu/key-issues/nuclear-energy/issues/yucca-mountain-testimony-comarow_2001-12-08.htm


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Obama will win

Obama for the win- even high profile republicans are endorsing him.Baxter 2008 (Sarah, JUNE 15. Times Online. Dismayed Republicans emerge as Barack Obama supporters

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article4138151.ece)

The long war in Iraq, the curtailment of civil liberties and enhancement of executive power in the guise of fighting terror

and profligate public spending by Bush and Congress have turned off a number of high-profile Republicans. Richard Nixons

daughter Julie Nixon Eisenhower, who is married to a grandson of President Dwight Eisenhower and co-chairs her fathers presidential library, has donated the

maximum $2,300 to Obamas campaign. Susan Eisenhower, her sister-in-law, is another lifelong Republican and Obamacon. I think everybody has different reasons

but I think hes seen as a fresh start for this country, and people like what they see, she said. A Wall Street Journal/NBC poll showed Obama

pulling into a lead of 47%-41% over McCain - a significant margin but not enough to constitute a huge postvictory bounce after HillaryClintons endorsement last week.

Barack is pulling ahead of Mccain- holding a 15 Point lead by pulling in former clinton supporters

Times of India, 8 (June 22. Barack bounces ahead with 15% lead

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/World/Barack_bounces_ahead_with_15_lead/articleshow/3152705.cms )

BarackObama has finally pulled clear of John McCain after many weeks of being tied with him in poll surveys. A latest Newsweek pollshows the Democratic contender is clear 15% ahead (51-36) of his Republican rival among registered voters nationwide.In part, Barack's bounce appears to be a result of Hillary Clinton's supporters moving over to his camp following hisvictory in the nomination process and her subsequent full-throated endorsement for him.

Obama is carrying many of the key demographics since Hillary dropped out and leads McCain in thegeneral election.

Todd, Murray, And Montanaro 2008 (Chuck, Mark, And Domenico. JUNE 12. First Thoughts: Obamas Bump. MSNBC.com. Chuck Todd is

NBCS Political Director, Mark Murray is NBCs Deputy Political Director, and Domenico Montanaro is NBCs Political Researcher.

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/06/12/1134992.aspx)

Days after becoming his partys presumptive nominee and receiving Clintons endorsement, Obama has opened up a six-point advantage over McCain (47%-41%) in the latest NBC/WSJ poll, which is up three points from Obamas lead in April. Perhaps the most fascinating

numbers are in the crosstabs, and some of the numbers will surprise folks who memorized every exit poll from the Democratic primaries. Obama leads McCain

among African Americans (83-7), Hispanics (62-28), women (52-33), Catholics (47-40), independents (41-36) and even blue-collar

workers (47-42). Obama is also ahead among those who said they voted for Clinton in the Democratic primaries (61-19).

Meanwhile, McCain is up among evangelicals (69-21), white men (55-35), men (49-41), whites (47-41), and white suburban women (44-38). However, Obama has a

seven-point edge (46-39) among all white women. How important is that lead? NBC/WSJ co-pollster Neil Newhouse (R) explains that Republican candidates always

expect to win white men by a substantial margin, but its white women that usually decide the race. If a Republican wins among white women, we usually win that

election, he says, noting that George Bush carried that group in 2000 and 2004. The poll was conducted of 1,000 registered voters from June 6-9 (Clinton endorsed

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Obama on June 7), and it has a +/- 3.1% margin of error.

AT: McCain will win cuz of the GOP base

3rd PARTY CANDIDATES LIKE BARR ARE DESTROYING MCCAINS BASE- THE GOP IS SHAKY INSUPPORT

Digital Journal 8 (June 22. Barr could be potential election spoiler to McCainhttp://www.digitaljournal.com/article/256456)

Not long ago afterwards, former Republican Representative of Georgia Bob Barr announced his run as a candidate for the Libertarian Party.He joined the Libertarian Party back in 2006. Barrs candidacy has brought fear within the GOP as a potential spoiler for presumedGOP nominee Senator John McCain of Arizona. That would add to many things for McCain to fear. There is already the Ron Paul Revolution thathas been brewing by Republican Representative and former GOP hopeful Ron Paul of Texas. Paul has already formed up the Campaign for Liberty with the task ofgetting more libertarian-leaning Republicans into government offices. Theres even a Ron Paul rally set to take place in Minneapolis, Minnesota at the same time thatthe GOP Convention is due to take place in St. Paul, Minnesota. Barr has gained fame for his part in the impeachment of former US President Bill Clinton. Now,

Barrs run may bring worry to the GOP. Still, Barrs run for the US Presidency is a very long shot. However, not many within the GOP are thrilled withMcCain as the partys presumed nominee. Still, McCain has yet to get the support from the conservative bloc of the GOP.The conservative bloc is the one vital bloc of the GOP. According to experts, Barr could possibly exploit whyconservatives arent warm to the aspect of McCain.

And, Mccain Doesnt Have A Base To Begin With- Republicans Are Not A Fan

Baxter 2008 (SARAH, JUNE 15. Times Online. Dismayed Republicans emerge as Barack Obama supporters.http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article4138151.ece)

Bruce Bartlett, the author of Impostor, an influential critique of Bushs overspending and betrayal of Reagans legacy, said many conservatives were

attracted as much by Obamas temperament as his policies. He just seems like a thoughtful guy, he said. John McCain

is not getting a lot of enthusiasm from Republicans there is feigned enthusiasm, but there are not a lot of pure McCain

Republicans out there. Professor David Friedman describes himself as a classic liberal, who had a lively intellectual upbringing as the son of Milton

Friedman, Margaret Thatchers economic guru.

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AT: polls are flawedVast majority of polls are accurate indicators of what happens on election day

Frank Newporthttp://blogs.usatoday.com/gallup/2008/01/theres-no-way-a.html Putting the New Hampshire Democratic polls under the microscope

Theres no way around the fact that the polls including our USA Today/Gallup poll did not predict Hillary Clintons narrow winoverBarackObama in Tuesdays New Hampshire primary. Our poll, conducted Friday, Saturday, and through about 4 pm on Sunday, showedObama with a double-digit lead. Hillary Clinton ended up winning by 2 points. Professional pollsters like to emphasize that their pre-electionsamplings are in the vast majority of instances accurate indicators of what actually happens on Election Day, and happilyprovide such examples when their polls are "right on". In fact, pollsters and observers alike just last week hailed the validity of polls when mostpre-election surveys in Iowa correctly and accurately foreshadowed Mike Huckabee and Barack Obamas dramatic victories.

Pre-election polls are a legitimate way to evaluate who might win an election

Frank Newporthttp://blogs.usatoday.com/gallup/2008/01/theres-no-way-a.html Putting the New Hampshire Democratic polls under the microscope

Pollsters often are quick to point out that polls are a "snapshot in time". That's true, but we in the polling industry have been

rewarded by the fact that typically the snapshot of voter preferences a few days before an election usually turns out to be

an accurate picture of what happens on Election Day itself. Once in a while that's not the case, as looks like happened in the

case of the Democratic primary in New Hampshire. I certainly believe that pre-election polls are a legitimate and important part of

the information flow before elections, in part because there is great public interest in and demand for answers to the question "who's ahead".

Andpolling provides much more information about voters and views of candidates above and beyond the horse race

number.

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http://www.galluppoll.com/http://www.galluppoll.com/http://blogs.usatoday.com/gallup/2008/01/theres-no-way-a.htmlhttp://blogs.usatoday.com/gallup/2008/01/theres-no-way-a.htmlhttp://blogs.usatoday.com/gallup/2008/01/theres-no-way-a.htmlhttp://blogs.usatoday.com/gallup/2008/01/theres-no-way-a.htmlhttp://blogs.usatoday.com/gallup/2008/01/theres-no-way-a.htmlhttp://blogs.usatoday.com/gallup/2008/01/theres-no-way-a.htmlhttp://www.galluppoll.com/http://www.galluppoll.com/http://blogs.usatoday.com/gallup/2008/01/theres-no-way-a.htmlhttp://blogs.usatoday.com/gallup/2008/01/theres-no-way-a.htmlhttp://blogs.usatoday.com/gallup/2008/01/theres-no-way-a.htmlhttp://blogs.usatoday.com/gallup/2008/01/theres-no-way-a.htmlhttp://blogs.usatoday.com/gallup/2008/01/theres-no-way-a.htmlhttp://blogs.usatoday.com/gallup/2008/01/theres-no-way-a.htmlhttp://www.galluppoll.com/http://blogs.usatoday.com/gallup/2008/01/theres-no-way-a.htmlhttp://www.galluppoll.com/http://blogs.usatoday.com/gallup/2008/01/theres-no-way-a.html


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AT: Diebold/ Vote tampering / cheatingVoting machines are safe they have been tested by independent and federal agencies. the units without

paper receipts are encrypted like the ones that print out receiptsABC News, 2006 Manufacturers Defend Electronic Voting Machines Critics Doubt Reliability of Electronic Voting Machines, but Diebold Says They've Passed TestsOct. 27, 2006 http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/story?id=2610298

With midterm elections less than two weeks away, some critics are raising doubts about the reliability of electronic voting machines, but the machines' manufacturerssay they are sound. The equipment has been tested by independent agencies and federal agencies," said Mark Radke, the director of marketing for Diebold, thecompany that makes the machines. Radke also told "Good Morning America" that the units that didn't have paper receipts had the same encrypted software as machinesthat printed out receipts. Approximately 40 percent of Americans will use these machines to vote in November. Casting a ballot with the touch of a screen is a newsystem that voters in at least 33 states will use on Election Day, but some critics are skeptical about the machines' reliability.

No evidence proves voting machines have been tampered with, despite their widespread use. Theirevidence is propaganda because it is just from isolated malfunctions that have been highly publicized

Tova Andrea Wang, The Century Foundation, 5/26/2004 http://www.reformelections.org/publications.asp?pubid=475 Understanding the Debate Over ElectronicVoting Machines

There is no hard evidence to show that any computer voting machine has in fact been tampered with, and theyhave been used in this country for many years.However, there have been many incidents in which there have been malfunctions. All votingsystems break down it is unclear whether DREs break down at a greater or less rate. However,because of the increased scrutiny of votingmachines, the instances of malfunctions of DRE machines have been highly publicized. This has heightened the sense ofalarm about using the machines in November.

Voting machines are advantageous. They actually decrease the potential for errors by eliminating abilityto over vote; and increases access

Tova Andrea Wang, The Century Foundation, 5/26/2004 http://www.reformelections.org/publications.asp?pubid=475 Understanding the Debate Over ElectronicVoting Machines

DREs offer several important advantages over other voting systems. Perhaps most important is that, unlike other machines, they canbe made fully accessible to the disabled, including the visually impaired. In the next election, many disabled voters will, for the first time ever, be able to cast private,secret ballots at their polling sites. DREs have the capacity for features such as audio voting for the visually impaired and hand-held voting devices for voters with

limited physical dexterity. In addition, as voters become more familiar with DRE machines, there will be a lower rate of "spoiled ballots,"ballots that are not counted because there is some kind of error made on them. In part this is because, unlike with punch card andoptical scan machines, DREs make it impossible to overvote inadvertently make more than one choice in a race. Votersreport in survey after survey that they find using DREs easy.Computerized voting machines also have the capacity to provide ballots in

an unlimited number of languages, making them the most accessible to language minorities among any of the machines. Finally, anumber of studies have shown that the votes of minorities are less likely to be counted when paper-based

systems are used, and that these disparities are greatly reduced when electronic forms of voting are employed.2

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Voting machines are reliable. Any problems are the result of poor training of volunteers, not tamperingor hacking.

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution February 21, 2007 HEADLINE: EQUAL TIME: Paper trail useless for votes;More volunteers, monitoring keys to better system BYLINE: CHRIS MYERS; For the Journal-Constitution

When you eliminate the problems that result from poor training, policy or procedures, there are only a few instances ofvoting machine malfunctions.But is this record any worse than other voting mechanisms? No. If you searchnewspaper archives for the last 100 years you will find many stories of faulty voting equipment of all types and even lost paper ballots. Plus, paper receipts do nothingto reduce the allegations of stolen elections. When Venezuela used electronic voting machines with paper receipts, the opposition still alleged that there was cheating,

and ironically it was because of a night when there were questionable procedures in handling the receipts.Something new always causes a stir, butI argue that while electronic voting is somewhat new, it has a track record that parallels any other votingsystem. Investing more in good volunteers, testing and monitoring will go a long way toensuring high quality voting regardless of the system.

Electronic voting machines are close to 100 percent accurate.

Chicago Daily HeraldNovember 1, 2006 SECTION: NEWS; Fence Post; Pg. 19

According to the American Association of People with Disabilities, electronic voting machines are close to 100 percent accurate atrecordingvotes vs. paper which has about a 7 percent error rate. What was used in 2000 that led to the election debacle that year?You guessed it, paper. And what was used to cast our ballots in 1960, right here in Illinois in an election where ballot box stuffing occurred? Right again, paper.

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Too Close to Call

Early polls bad - History Proves That June Polls Dont Prove Election Wins

Spence 2008 (Matthew, June 20. June Polls Dont Hold Up Washington Bureau, Times Online. http://timesonline.typepad.com/uselections/2008/06/june-polls-dont.html)

This week's polls showing Barack Obama with small, but significant, single-digit leads among likely voters are certainlywelcomed by Democrats, but recent history hasn't been kind to early frontrunners. In fact, only one of the last five Juneelection-year polling averages has correctly predicted the popular vote winner in November - Bill Clinton in 1996. Even then, the

polls missed his win-margin by more than 9 percent. As hard as it may be to believe, Michael Dukakis (left) was leading the firstGeorge Bush by an average of 8.2 percent in June of 1988. Bush went on to win the general election by 7.8 points. Mr Bush ledthe relatively unknown Bill Clinton by 4.9 percent In June of '92, but managed to lose in November by 5.6 percent . June 1996 polls showed theincumbent President Clinton leading by a whopping 17 points, but even Bob Dole managed to close the gap to a morerespectable 8.5 percent. 2000 was different only in that George W. Bush led by 4.7 percent in June, won the election, but lost the popular vote to Al Gore by 0.5

percent.And finally, John Kerry led in the June 2004 polls by an average of 0.9 percent, but lost the popular vote, and the election, to the incumbent Bush by 2.4 points.

So, while Mr Obama's leads are certainly signs for Democrats to be optimistic, history points to caution. A lot can happenbetween June and November.

Theres too much of a split on issues to predict how electoral math will turn out- Its too close to call.Mercurio 8 (John, June 12. National Journal. http://www.nationaljournal.com/njonline/ps_20080612_9938.php )

More than four months out from the conclusion of what has been perhaps the least predictable presidential election ever,it's foolish to pretend we know how the electoral map will look the night of November 4. The most obvious unknown is how voterswill respond to Obama's race. But considering the stark choices offered by the two candidates on high-priority issues such as the

economy, Iraq, health care and abortion rights, it's hard to see how we're bracing for a whole new world, or even a newmap.

Despite Bushs low ratings, McCain is really close.Wilson 8 (Reid, June 12. Real Clear Politics. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/politics_nation/2008/06/strategy_memo_hey_ladies.html )

President Bush's job approval rating is in the tank, as just 29% approve, per the latest RCP Average. Only 16% say the country is headedin the right direction. And Democrats lead Republicans in a generic congressional ballot matchup by an average of twelvepoints. Yet John McCain trails Barack Obama by just over four points in the latest RCP General Election Average , and he'sdoing very well among white males and among traditionally Democratic white suburban women, who have more typically voted Democratic in recent years, as the WallStreet Journal's Jackie Calmes writes today.

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McCain will win

Mccain will win he is strong on security- this will be the key issue

Sabar 8 (Ariel, June 10. Economy is top Priority for Obama, McCain, and Voters. Sabar is a staff writier for the Christian Science Monitor.http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/0610/p01s06-uspo.html?page=1)

"The shaky state of the national economy is going to be a problem for John McCain," Glasgow said via e-mail. "McCain will want to paint an optimisticpicture and also try to distance himself from the current administration on economic policy. He'll probably do this bytrying to convince voters that national security" on which the Vietnam War hero enjoys higher ratings "is the biggestconcern facing the nation."

Obamas recent decision to not accept public financing will change how americans feel about Mccain andwill benefit McCain in the general election.

Brinsley 8 (John, June 22. Obamas Public Financing Move Puts System at Risk, Biden Says John Brinsley is the Washington reporter for Bloomberg.com.http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601070&sid=aqyd.eZRHxe4&refer=home)Obama announced his move on June 19, calling the taxpayer- funded structure for the general election ``broken.'' Previously,he had promised to seek an agreement with the Republican nominee to take public money and the accompanying spending limits. Doing so would have meantabandoning record amounts of donations and surrendering an advantage over Republican candidate John McCain. SenatorLindsey Graham, a McCain supporter

appearing on the same program with Biden, said Obama ``is reinforcing everything that's wrong with politics.'' ``This is a gamechanger in terms of the general election,'' said Graham, of South Carolina. ``This will not go unnoticed by the American people.''McCain plans to take public financing for the general election campaign.

McCain can win - Obama Still Has To Unify The Party- He Needs To Take Up Demographics ThatHillary Led

Walsh 8 (Joan, June 5. The other 18 million http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2008/06/05/obama/index2.html Salon Magazine. Joan Walsh is Salonseditor in chief.)

Obama himself was gracious to Clinton in his victory speech. He also turned his attention to the general election, givingJohn McCain a fantastic pounding. But Obama has one more big task left to unify his party: He needs to spread his graciousnessamong his supporters, in the media and the blogosphere and beyond. The self-described "hope-monger" now needs to be a grace-monger, in a word, to win back Clinton

supporters proud of what she's accomplished in this race and angry over her mistreatment. Here's why: Hillary Clinton, the Goldwater girl turned '60s liberalturned ultimate insider, the former first lady and current senator, has become the belated, almost reluctant leader of a movement, mainly of womenbut also of white working-class voters, Latinos, seniors and others who feel left out. They don't just feel left out by George Bush's America, butalso by the Obama coalition. The women in that movement are especially volatile and angry, over the sexism Clinton has faced allalong the way, right up to her final election night. And women are the largest Democratic constituency. Winning withoutoverwhelming support from white Democratic women wouldn't be easy for Obama. I have no doubt Obama and his supporters can reachthese women, but first he has to try. I'll start with a few simple pointers for how to do it: Don't call them racist. Or old and irrelevant. And don't say Hillary Clinton has

to do all the work to heal the breach; Obama has plenty he can do himself.

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Uniqueness / Republicans will win

Republican win likely 7 reasons are fraud, Iraq, Dem Congress, Gender, Leftists, Galvanization, andDiplomacy Double standards also cant benefit from planhttp://www.omgili.com/preview/aHR0cDovL3VzbWVzc2FnZWJvYXJkLmNvbS9zaG93dGhyZWFkLnBocD90PTUwMDk2 David Swanson 08-07-2007The Likelihood of a Republican President in 2009 The Likelihood of a Republican President in 2009 By David Swanson

America is quite likely to elect a Republican president in 2009. The first reason is that Republican election fraud has been wellestablished since 2000. Bush and Cheney lost Florida, and therefore America, according to the recount completed by major media outlets after it was officially

blocked by the Supreme Court. And they almost certainly would have lost by a much larger margin if not for the illegal purging of the rolls engaged in by Republicans.

We've seen a growing array of tactics employed in several states in 2002, 2004, and 2006 to suppress and not count Democratic votes. Bush and Cheneyclearly did not win in 2004, yet they are in office. And they have turned the U.S. Department of Justice into a wing of theRepublican National Committee. But a Republican could win in 2008 honestly if the Democrats nominate the wrong sort of candidate and if the DemocraticCongress makes the wrong moves in the next year and a half. Remember, as unpopular as Bush is, the Democratic Congress is even moreunpopular. The most important issue in this election, as in other recent elections, will be Iraq. It will be even more important than in the past, and the

public is even more in support of withdrawal. Because of this, it would be very, very difficult for Hillary Clinton or John Edwards to win

the election. The Republicans can be expected to air on our televisions over and over and over again the choicest bits of the speeches these two Senators made whenauthorizing Bush to attack Iraq. They professed to believe the whole litany of lies about WMDs. A video interspersing these speeches with clips of Clinton or Edwardslater denouncing Bush and Cheney's lies would make the Democratic nominee look unprincipled and dishonest. Sean Hannity of Fox News recently brought just such avideo to a debate he took part in with Salt Lake City Mayor Rocky Anderson. Now, Edwards may not be entirely unprincipled and dishonest. He has apologized for hiswar vote and advanced progressive majority positions on a variety of issues. Sadly, that does not change the fact that it will be virtually impossible for him, having

given that speech, to win this election. I don't thinkClinton has ever been hampered by any principles or honesty. You can take footage of her speeches from anygiven week and edit together bits of her passionately contradicting herself. Most recently she is decisively both for and against speaking to hostileforeign leaders. Clinton cannot possibly win an election. Once you factor out the states that are unlikely to vote for a woman, even abrave and principled woman much less someone like Clinton, this is a tough climb. When you then factor out those onthe left who will actively campaign against her or stay home, it begins to look impossible. If you then consider the way inwhich Clinton will galvanize those on the right who despise her, it's all over. The Democrats in Congress are opposed to impeachment, in

part because Clinton is opposed to it, and in part because they think she'll solve our nation's woes once elected. But they're also opposed because they thinkimpeachment would galvanize their opponents. Nothing would do that as well as nominating Clinton. In contrast, forcing the Republicans to defend Bush and Cheney

for the next year and a half would actually benefit the Democrats tremendously. Meanwhile, Clinton is not only unlikely to win, but has already committed

to keeping the occupation of Iraq going until the end of her second term. Force her to admit that again in October 2008, and you can start singing theRepublican Homeland National Anthem. Now, Barack Obama did not vote to authorize the invasion of Iraq. But he has voted many times to fund the occupation. Hehas given speeches in support of doing so. He supports keeping open the possibili ty of aggressively attacking Iran, including with nuclear weapons. He has proposedlaunching an illegal aggressive attack on Pakistan. He, like Clinton and Edwards, does not favor a swift and complete end to the occupation of Iraq. The peace activists

already planning to protest the Democratic Convention will only be energized if the nominee is Obama. Numerous researchers and scholars arealready predicting a Democratic loss if the Democratic Party does not take a strong stand for getting out of Iraq.

Polls now cant predict the election winner too many unknowns and they are likely to be inaccuratefavoring the dems right now. This has been empirically true.

Paul Jenkins,(fmr journalist with the afp, studied international relations and politics) Nov 6th, 2007Huffington Post

Electability is a concept that makes many progressive voters uncomfortable, as it should. Not only because it usually means excruciating political compromise, but, as

evidenced by Kerry and Gore, it's so often for nothing. Even the most eager poll followers cannot predict 6 to 10 months before a generalelection (when most primaries take place) who is likely to fare best come November. There are too many unknowns, starting withthe Republican nominee. Many times, Democrats have looked forward to facing a sure loser, not unlike the younger Bush, only tobe bitterly disappointed. Right now, Mitt Romney looks like a delectable general election opponent: polls show him losing every single state surveyed againstpretty much any leading Democrat. But a closer look is sobering: the scary flip-flopping robot has come from far behind to lead in every early Republican primary state.Would you rather face him, or lazybones Fred Thompson?

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Republicans will come out ahead in the general election. Democrats arent electable

Paul Jenkins,(fmr journalist with the afp, studied international relations and politics) Nov 6th, 2007Huffington Post

Of course, it is possible to fall short of an absolute majority of the popular vote, even lose it, and still become president, as Bush so aptly illustrated in 2000. And by andlarge the Democratic and Republican parties of several decades, let alone a century ago, have evolved into very different creatures (thankfully for the former). But whatdoes it tell us thatWoodrow Wilson,Harry Truman,John F. Kennedy andBill Clintoncould not get half the country (plus one) to vote for them? And that at the sametime,bothBushesandRichard Nixon, among the most recently victorious Republicans, achieved a sometimes solid absolute majority of the popular vote?

Democrats have struggled for years to figure this out. The mot du jour is, once again, electability. This may have been understandableafter some of the more notorious debacles of the 1970s and 1980s in which primary voters went with their heart (George McGovern, Walter Mondale). But recenthistory has not been kind to the lucid crowd. After all, John Kerry was seen as the rational, experienced, safe choice ofprimary Democratic voters in 2004; in truth, had they picked Al Sharpton, they would have ended with the same thing: a

loss. In 2000, Gore was the most risk-averse choice Democrats had made in decades and yet he too went down to defeat.

Diebold assures Republican victory

by Bob Fitrakis and Harvey Wasserman 10/21/07 http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0710/S00328.htm Will the election theft machine do it again in08? Sunday, 21 October 2007, 5:28 pm Column: freepress.org

Will the GOP election theft machine do it again in 2008? With record low approval ratings for the Bush/Cheney regime and the albatross of an unpopular war hangingfrom the GOP's neck, do you think that a Democratic presidential candidate will win the White House, get us out of Iraq, and end our long national nightmare? Think

again the mighty election theft machine Karl Rove used to steal the US presidency in 2000 and 2004 may be under attack, but it isstill in place for the upcoming 2008 election. With his usual devious mastery, Rove has seized upon the national outrage sparked by hiselectoral larceny and used it as smokescreen while he makes the American electoral system even MORE unfair, and evenEASIER to rig. Thus the administration has fired federal attorneys when they would not participate in a nationwide campaign to denyminorities and the poor their access to the polls. It has spent millions of taxpayer dollars to install electronic voting machines that can be"flipped" with a few keystrokes. And under the guise of "reforming" our busted electoral system, it is setting us up for another presidential theft in2008.

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http://presidentelect.org/e2000.htmlhttp://presidentelect.org/e2000.htmlhttp://presidentelect.org/e2000.htmlhttp://presidentelect.org/e1916.htmlhttp://presidentelect.org/e1916.htmlhttp://presidentelect.org/e1916.htmlhttp://presidentelect.org/e1948.htmlhttp://presidentelect.org/e1948.htmlhttp://presidentelect.org/e1960.htmlhttp://presidentelect.org/e1960.htmlhttp://presidentelect.org/e1996.htmlhttp://presidentelect.org/e1996.htmlhttp://presidentelect.org/e1996.htmlhttp://www.uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/http://www.uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/http://www.uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/http://presidentelect.org/e1988.htmlhttp://presidentelect.org/e1988.htmlhttp://presidentelect.org/e1972.htmlhttp://presidentelect.org/e1972.htmlhttp://presidentelect.org/e1972.htmlhttp://presidentelect.org/e2000.htmlhttp://presidentelect.org/e1916.htmlhttp://presidentelect.org/e1948.htmlhttp://presidentelect.org/e1960.htmlhttp://presidentelect.org/e1996.htmlhttp://www.uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/http://presidentelect.org/e1988.htmlhttp://presidentelect.org/e1972.html


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*Links*

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Alternative Energy : Popular

Wide public support for alternative energyBob Kievra, Telegram & Gazette Staff January 6, 2008 HEADLINE: Signs of a slowdown; Economic problems of 2007 expected to continue in 2008 SUNDAYTELEGRAM (Massachusetts)

" Alternative energy became very popular this year,'' said Mr. Sherr. "There's more momentum toward companies likeAmerican Superconductor and Evergreen Solarand the hope is that they can get some wind in their sails, but neither one has turned a profit yet.''Profits will be ample for longtime investors of Commerce Group Inc. of Webster, which announced Oct. 30 it would be sold in a $2.2 bill ion deal toMapfre SA of Madrid, Spain's largest insurer. Shares jumped 17 percent the day after the deal was announced and for the quarter, Commerce stock was up 22 percent.

Alternative energy is popular with the public

JessicaPapini Investment Dealers Digest December 17, 2007HEADLINE: Responsible Returns? It's not always easy being virtuous, but hedge funds aretrying

Any "green" or "clean" idea is popular, agrees Gould. Therefore, alternative energy companies are very likely to experiencestrong growth as a group, says Jens Peers, lead portfolio manager of the Calvert Global Alternative Energy Fund.

Public supports alternative energy incentives

John Podesta January 23, 2008 http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2008/01/podesta_testimony.html Cap, Auction, and Trade: Allowance Auctions andRevenue Recycling Under Carbon Cap-and-Trade Testimony Before the House Select Committee for Energy Independence and Global Warming

We recommend that the remaining half of the revenue go to spur science and technology innovation and to drive our transition to a low-carbon economy by funding

research and development, tax incentives, and other initiatives. And the public supports this: 71 percent of Americans are ready to quicklychange from using coal and oil to using clean, alternative energy. Transportation and electricity account for 72 percent of

U.S. CO2 emissions from energy, so our policies focus on these two sectors.

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Climate change action : Popular

Action on climate change is popular large majority of Americans, including non traditionalconstituencies support it.

Report of an Independent Task Force CFR, June 2008 Confronting Climate Change:A Strategy for U.S. Foreign Policyhttp://www.cfr.org/content/publications/attachments/Climate_ChangeTF.pdf

All this has been driven by rapidly increasing concern among the American public. Polls conducted in mid-2007 showed that a large majority ofAmericans viewclimate change as a serious problem of which human activity is a significant cause.33 That worry has beenintensified by accompanying concerns about U.S. dependence on foreign oil and association, rightly or wrongly, of disasters such as Hurricane Katrina with climate

change. It has also broadened to nontraditional constituenciessuch as the evangelical community, which has increasingly associatedclimate protection with stewardship of Gods creation, and the national security establishment, which has identified myriad ways in which climatechange could affect U.S. security.34 In crafting strategy, U.S. policymakers will need to remain aware that support for climate change action is not monolithic but

instead rests on several pillarsenvironmental, economic, and securitythat will each need to be satisfied.

Public supports US government action against climate change

Robert N. Stavins, Harvard University, National Bureau of Economic Research 2007 http://www.hks.harvard.edu/mrcbg/rpp/Working%20papers/RPP_2007_04.pdfA U.S. Cap-and-Trade System to Address Global Climate Change

In the meantime the impetus for a meaningful U.S. climate policy is growing. Scientific evidence has increased (Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change 2007a, 2007b), public concern has been magnified, and many people perceive what they believe to be evidenceof climate change in prog-ress. Such concern is reinforced by the aggressive positions of key advocacy groups, which are no lon-ger limited on this issue tothe usual environmental interest groups; religious lobbies, for example, have also been vocal. All this has been reflected in greatly heightenedattention by the news media. The re-sult is that a large and growing share of the U.S. population now believe that

government action is warranted (Bannon et al. 2007).

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Alt Energy Tax Credits : PopularSignificant public support exists for alternative energy incentives in the form of tax credits for

renewables and nuclear power.

U.S. NewswireApril 25, 2008 HEADLINE: Eight of 10 Americans Support Federal Incentives to Spur Growth of Carbon-Free Energy Technology

The survey shows that 79 percent of Americans approve of providing tax credits "as an incentive to companies to build solar,wind and advanced-design nuclear power plants." Only 20 percent do not approve. The number of Americans "strongly approving"of tax credits exceeded the number of Americans "strongly disapproving" by the same four-to-one margin (37 percent vs. 9

percent).

Wide public support for alternative energy tax incentives

National Journal's CongressDaily April 17, 2008 HEADLINE: Pelosi Position On Farm Bill Taxes Becomes Central Focus

Senators emphasized Wednesday that many of the tax provisions have popular support. Baucus said many farm groups say the alternativeenergy tax breaksare important while Budget Chairman Kent Conrad said "hundreds of good government groups" support theconservation tax breaks.

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Alternative Energy : Popular (Democrats)

Democrats support action to promote the use of alternative energy technologiesJames i. Stewart and m. Sami Khawaja;M. Sami Khawaja is an economist and president of The Cadmus Group, an environmental and energyconsulting firm based in Portland, Ore. James I. Stewart is an economist and associate at The Cadmus Group. June, 2008 HEADLINE: THEPOLITICS OFCARBON PUBLIC UTILITIES FORTNIGHTLY

Recent developments favor the passage of federal legislation regulating GHG emissions soon. Global warming and its economic and environmental costs are

becoming increasingly self-evident. There is growing public awareness of global warming and rising concern about its effects onthe environment and the economy. Concern is much greater among Democratic than Republican voters. According to a recentEconomist/YouGov poll, 53 percent of Democrats cite global warming as the greatest environmental problem, whereas justeight percent of Republicans do the same. Many more Democrats are willing to impose taxes to curb GHG emissions as well. n6

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Cap and trade : PopularPublic supports cap and trade program to decrease global warming.Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research Americans Support Cap-and-Trade Scheme June 14, 2008 http://www.angusreid.com/polls/view/americans_support_cap_and_trade_scheme/

Many adults in the United States would welcome a cap-and-trade scheme to reduce global warming, according to a pollby Opinion Research Corporation released by CNN. 52 per cent of respondents support a proposal to have the government set alimit on the amount of emissions that a company could produce each year, with companies being allowed to buy creditsfrom those who pollute less. In addition, 54 per cent of respondents believe global warming is a proven fact and is mostly caused by emissions from cars andindustrial facilities such as power plants and factories.

Cap and trade programs have widespread public support.

Michael E. Canes 2007 Michael E. Canes is a Senior Research Fellow at LMI, a not-for-profit government consulting firm located in McLean, VA.http://www.marshall.org/pdf/materials/538.pdf Why Cap & Trade is the Wrong Policy to Curb Greenhouse Gases for the United States

From a political perspective, C&T makes eminent sense. There is widespread public support for controlling GHGs, so it iseasy to support a means to do so. New taxes can be a hard sell, particularly if not linked to tax reductions elsewhere. But even more to the point, a C&Tsystem requires a Federal allowance distribution mechanism. Even if Congress delegates authority to an Executive agency such as EPA or DOE to administer a tradableallowance system, it retains ultimate control. Those who seek larger allocations will seek to influence Congress regarding the initial rules for distribution and will seekcongressional help if they are dissatisfied with Administrative decisions. This strengthens the positions of congressional incumbents, who can expect political support in

exchange for their interventions. The ability to distribute government-created wealth of great magnitude is simply too potentiallyrewarding from a political perspective to ignore.

Cap and trade systems are popular because they rely on market systems

James i. Stewart and m. Sami Khawaja.M. Sami Khawaja is an economist and president of The Cadmus Group, an environmental and energyconsulting firm based in Portland, Ore. James I. Stewart is an economist and associate at The Cadmus Group. June, 2008 HEADLINE: THEPOLITICS OFCARBON PUBLIC UTILITIES FORTNIGHTLY

Although a carbon tax has many economic virtues, a tax-based system of controlling GHG emissions is unlikely to be instituted in the United States. Twocharacteristics of a cap-and-trade system give it an advantage over a tax in national politics. First, a cap-and-trade systemavoids direct taxation while still relying on market principles. This makes it attractive to politicians wanting to avoid the stigma of raising taxes.Second, the cap-and-trade system gives supporters of GHG legislation a valuable bargaining chip during legislativenegotiations with powerful special interest groups opposed to limits on emissions. The support of these interests and thatof reluctant lawmakers may be won with agreements to distribute permits to certain industries for free on the basis of pastproduction--i.e., grandfathering--at least on a temporary basis. This will shift more of the burden of the costs of reducing GHGs toconsumers (as the government will lose tax revenues from the sale of permits that could be used to offset the higher costs of carbon-intensive goods or reduce othertaxes) but it will not undermine the integrity of the caps or the price of carbon.

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CAF Standards: Popular

Public is pro environment and support CAF standards and fuel efficient vehicles

States News Service March 12, 2008 HEADLINE: GO RVING, PR REPORTS OUTLINE NEW TACTICS FOR CHANGING MARKET

These challenges include increased consumer attention to environmental concerns and the need for companies to be greena possible consumer shift away from buying trucks and other tow vehicles as new Corporate Average Fuel Economy( CAFE) Standards take hold; the fact that fewer of America's kids (and adults) are spending time in the Great Outdoors; and reaching out to the increasinglydiverse United States population.

Consumers are primarily interested in fuel efficiency so CAF standards are popularNicoleZerillo June 16, 2008HEADLINE: Automakers place premium on efficiency PR Week (US)

Where consumers lead, car manufacturers now follow. Although fuel efficiency was always a selling point for somemanufacturers, consumers weren't always astuned in to mpg ratings as they are today, say some PR pros in the industry. What might seem like an about-face in the marketing ofsmaller cars over trucks is actually a refocus, they add.

Kathleen Hamilton, assistant VP of PR in the automotive practice at Coyne Public Relations, says that in the past, fuel efficiency was often anafterthought for consumers.

'For years, fuel economy was not a top concern among customers in (the) mass market when making a purchasingdecision, though (it became) important when (they) got it home,' she says. '(Today) PR pros are seeking to guide purchase decisions by emphasizing fueleconomy and new technology.'

Consumers are interested in fuel efficient cards. Fuel standards would be popularDealBreakerJune 24, 2008Tuesday 8:18 AM EST HEADLINE: Opening Bell: 6.24.08

Cut Sales Goal as U.S. Truck Demand Slumps (Bloomberg) Meanwhileit's not like Toyota is somehow immune from the whole thing. In fact their woes

(aging workforce, model, factories, maturity) has been well documented. And the company says it may cut expectations on weak US truckdemand. You know the drill: consumers want those slight, fuel efficient cars that made Toyota so popular and desiredto begin with.

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Wind energy : Popular

Wind energy is massively popular and experiencing huge growth

Business Wire February 29, 2008 HEADLINE: Wind Energy America Inc. Completes Acquisition of Boreal Energy Assets

With the rapid growth of wind farms to foster the "greening of America," along with the high cost of fossil fuels, wind energy is now experiencingunprecedented growth. Popular support for cleaner power from alternative energy sources is driving huge amounts ofinvestment capital into the windpower industry. GE Financial Services, for example, recently announced that it will invest more than 6 billion dollarsin renewable energy by 2010. With its new pipeline of projects from the Boreal acquisition, WNEA should successfully capture some of the unprecedented growthoccurring in the wind power industry. Through acquisitions, development of its own projects, and ownership and operation of wind farms, WNEA intends to become a

premier provider of wind power in its region.

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Biofuels : Popular

Biofuels are politically popular

Todd SullivanValuePlays October 30, 2007 HEADLINE: Todd Sullivan's - ValuePlaysBig Oil Dipping Toes Into Renewables

Now, are the investments huge? No. Did they exist three years ago? No. Biofuels are both politically popular and extremely popular withthe consumer. They big takeaway here is that the alternative energy companies are not alone in this effort today. It all but assure a permanent place for biofuelsthe only question that remains to be asked it what the market looks like. Currently it is extremely fragmented and consolidation is inevitable and necessary. It isbecoming a global market like oil and the players who are first to begin the global consolidation will prosper. Bunge (BG) is inSouth America and ADM has made no secret of its desire to acquire large scale Brazilian production and has even made public pronouncements about acquiringadditional US One thing for sure, it will be exciting to watch..

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Nuclear power : PopularPublic support for nuclear power is strong

States News Service April 25, 2008 HEADLINE: EIGHT OF 10 AMERICANS SUPPORT FEDERAL INCENTIVES TO SPUR GROWTH OFCARBON-FREE ENERGY TECHNOLOGY

The survey found that public support for preparing for and building new nuclear power plants remains strong. Seventy-eightpercent of Americans agree that electric companies should prepare now so that new nuclear plants could be built if neededwithin the next decade. In the national survey conducted last October, 75 percent agreed. In the new survey, 59 percent of Americans agree "we shoulddefinitely build more nuclear power plants." Two-thirds of those surveyed (66 percent) said that,if a new power plant were needed tosupply electricity, it would be acceptable to add a new reactor at the site of the nearest nuclear power plant that is alreadyoperating. Last October, 59 percent agreed with that statement. Regarding the storage of used nuclear fuel, 58 percent of Americans agree that it can be storedsafely at the plants until it is moved to a permanent disposal facility. Seventy-eight percent believe that centralizing storage of used fuel rods at one or two volunteersites is a better way.

Significant public support exists for alternative energy incentives in the form of tax credits forrenewables and nuclear power.

U.S. NewswireApril 25, 2008 HEADLINE: Eight of 10 Americans Support Federal Incentives to Spur Growth of Carbon-Free Energy Technology

The survey shows that 79 percent of Americans approve of providing tax credits "as an incentive to companies to build solar,wind and advanced-design nuclear power plants." Only 20 percent do not approve. The number of Americans "strongly approving"of tax credits exceeded the number of Americans "strongly disapproving" by the same four-to-one margin (37 percent vs. 9

percent).

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Energy policy key to election

Energy policy is a key issue in the election

Jay Loomis April 26, 2008The Journal News (Westchester County, New York) HEADLINE: Lowering energy bills

During the energy crunch of the late 1970s, President Carter emphasized conservation by donning a sweater, turning down the thermostat and installing a

solar panel on a roof at the White House. These days, conservation is back in vogue as energy prices soar again. Energy policy isgetting the most attention in a presidential election since the bygone era of Carter thriftiness.

The return of 1970s-style energy anxieties has meant big opportunities for William J. Hillis. He is the 46-year-old president of Energy Analytics, aBrewster-based company that advises clients big and small on ways to cut their energy bills through conservation measures.

Companies, through steps such as installing efficient lights, better cooling systems, superior insulation and glazed windows, can easily cut their energy

bills by 15 to 30 percent, according to Hillis. "When oil was $10 a barrel, energy conservation did not receive much focus," Hillis said."But with oil at $120, there is not a building manager or facility engineer who doesn't have conservation as part of his day-to-day responsibilities."

Energy policy is key to the electionBob Gabordi May 28, 2008Tallahassee Democrat (Florida) HEADLINE: Gas prices dominate all talk on the road

If my circle of a few hundred people in the past few weeks is any indication, this upcoming presidential election's candidates should beforewarned: It's still the economy that matters the most, and right now that's about energy policy and fuel prices. I suspect it is thesame conversation at most families' gatherings.

Energy policy is a foremost issue for voters in the election

Curtis Brainard Tue 10 Jun200810:50 AM http://www.cjr.org/the_observatory/turning_point_energy.php Turning Point: Energy Finally, real differencesbetween the candidates for the press to explore

As much as editors have come to love articles about green power sources like solar and wind, the most pressing questions for the candidates revolve around the our

traditional fossil favoritescoal and oil. Foremost on voters minds are skyrocketing gas prices. Pump pain already sparked a pressfrenzy in April when McCain and then Hillary Clinton called for a federal gas-tax holiday over the summer. Clintons rival, Barack Obama, vociferouslyopposed the idea, calling it mere politicking that would do little to help drivers. With the general election now effectively under way, its timerevisit this integral subjectwhether its the price of oil, cap-and-trade legislation, or some other energy efficiencymeasure, voters must know if and when each candidate would resort to some form ofsafety valve that would pull theplug on runaway electricity or gasoline prices.

Energy policy is an important issues to voters in the election.

Steve Hargreaves, CNNMoney.com staff writer June 9 2008 CNNMoney.com Obama, McCain differ on energy policy

Energy issues have arguably never received so much public scrutiny. Record gas prices are taking a big chunk out ofpeople's budgets , and take a big part of the blame for our shaky economy. But it isn't just high prices that are worryingvoters. Oil supplies are tight, and global warming threatens major disruptions to life on Earth.

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No Link / AT: Energy Policy key to ElectionAmericans dont believe global warming should be a top priority of government its not key to the

election.

Kent Harper June 11 2008 http://www.elynews.com/articles/2008/06/11/opinion/oped01.txt Is global warming support cooling?

Almost three-quarters of Americans believe global warming is a serious problem, with just under a quarter saying the problem isn't seriousat all. Pew said that's largely unchanged the past few years. And again, politics seems an influence: six in 10 Democrats, and almost half of Independents believe the

problem is serious. Only 22 percent of Republicans agree.

But although an overwhelming percentage of Americans say global warming is a vary or somewhat serious problem, itranks at the bottom of the public's list of priorities for Congress and the White House to deal with.Only 35 percent of Americans polled in January 2008, said global warming should be a top priority of the federalgovernment this year. That's down from 38 percent in January 2007. Given a list of 21 priorities for the Administration and Congress to address, global warmingranked last, 21, with Republicans. It ranked 15 out of 21 with Democrats, and 18 out of 21 with Independents. Pew has found that strenghtening the

economy is by far more important with Americans than any political differences.

Economy is the key issue now energy policy has moved down the list of priorities

States News Service April 25, 2008 HEADLINE: EIGHT OF 10 AMERICANS SUPPORT FEDERAL INCENTIVES TO SPUR GROWTH OFCARBON-FREE ENERGY TECHNOLOGY

A majority of Americans now rank economic growth as a top concern, ahead of the threat of climate change and the needfor energy security, the survey found.Asked to choose which of four issues seem "most important," 57 percent of Americans named economic growth among the top two concerns, while 47 percentnamed global warming as a first or second choice and 46 percent named energy security first or second. Air pollution was ranked first or second by 43 percentof respondents.

This is a sharp change from the results of a Bisconti Research survey in October 2007. At that time, Americans rankedthe threat of climate change and air pollution as the top energy-related concerns. Economic growth ranked at the bottomof the four choices, with only 40 percent selecting it as a first or second concern.

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No link / AT: Lichtman evidence

1. The Lichtman link evidence concedes that other foreign policy issues could prevent the president frombeing able to increase popularity enough to help the Republicans in the election.2. Keys inconclusive Lichtman declines to predict because the keys can still move and if the 2005prediction was valid, uniqueness outstrips the linkhttp://www.gather.com/viewArticle.jsp?articleId=281474976892768 Joseph Schroeder January 23, 2007 02:24 PM EST

According to the "13 Keys to the White House" - which has accurately predicted the outcome of all presidential elections since 1984 and has accounted for the

outcomes of all presidential elections since 1860 - the next President of the United States is likely to be a Democrat. It is still too early to determine wherea few of the keys will fall between now and 2008 - so Mr. Allan Lichtman, developer of the prediction system - has not released anofficial prediction.

3. Keys were wrong in 2000 and cant count electoral college and assume white males onlyAllan J. Lichtman - October 4th, 2007 http://hnn.us/roundup/entries/43453.htmlTwo caveats are in order. First, as a nationally based system, the Keys predict only the popular vote. In the last hundred years, however, thepopular and Electoral College votes have diverged only in the 2000 election. For the special circumstances of that election, see, Lichtman, WhatReally Happened in Floridas 2000 Presidential Election, Journal of Legal Studies 32(1), 2003). Second, the Democrats may well introduce anelement of uncertainly by making a path-breaking nomination of either a woman, Hillary Clinton, or an African-American,Barack Obama.

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No Link Bush popularity doesnt affect McCain

Popularity of Bush will not affect McCains chances in November

Peter a. Brown 3/26/08 http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0308/9211.html Bush-haters won't stop McCain

It turns out that President Bush may not be as large an albatross around John McCain's neck as many people think, after all.One big unknown has been how much the president's low poll ratings his job approval is almost as poor as that of King George III amongthe colonists 240 years ago would badly hurt the Republican nominees chances this November.The theory pushed hard by Democrats and accepted to some degree by Republicans is that the public is so angry with Bush that large numbersof voters will refuse to vote for a fellow Republican.The reality is a bit more complicated and perhaps not quite as ominous for de facto GOP nominee McCain as many mightthink.

Voters wont take out their frustration on McCain and the majority who would wouldnt have votedrepublican anywayPeter a. Brown 3/26/08 http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0308/9211.html Bush-haters won't stop McCain

McCain's closeness in these national and key state polls is an early indication that there aren't that many people who mightbe taking out their Bush anger on the GOPcandidate.Moreover, detailed polling in the three most important states in the Electoral College shows the vast majority ofthose who say their frustration with Bush has turned them off to McCain are voters unlikely to vote Republican inthe first place.

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*impacts*

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Impact XT Yucca Mountain / Yucca = groundwater contaminationStoring waste at Yucca mountain risks groundwater contamination when the radiation leaks or escapes

Public Citizen.org, January 2005 Yucca Mountain and Nuclear Wastehttp://www.citizen.org/documents/YuccaBackgrounder05.pdf

The DOE talks about disposing of nuclear waste, but nuclear waste cannot be disposed of, it only can be stored. When stored, there isalways the danger that radiation will escape. The original concept of a geologic repository was for a site with natural barriers capable of containingnuclear waste throughout the hundreds of thousands of years it remains dangerously radioactive. But after the DOE found problems with the natural barrier system at

Yucca Mountain, the agency decide to rely on an engineered barrier system instead. A freshwater aquifer lies beneath Yucca Mountain. Ifradioactive waste from a repository leaks, it would jeopardize the health of nearby residents, who depend on that aquiferas their sole source of drinking water. The aquifer is also used for irrigation by the residents of the Amargosa Valley, an organic farming and dairycommunity only 20 miles away, as well as parts of California. The National Academy of Sciences has identified the groundwater pathway as a significant pathway of

exposure in the vicinity of the Yucca Mountain site. Yucca Mountain is composed of tuff, which is volcanic ash welded together overthousands of years. This rock can be nonporous or somewhat porous, depending on the extent of welding and how fast the layers cool. The tuff at YuccaMountain is of both types, and has several distinct layers. The densely welded tuffs at Yucca Mountain are brittle with significant cracks and

fissures. The cracks and fissures in the upper layer provide a potential pathway for water to get into the mountain. The fracturesin

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