Mr Vijay Sardana Edible Oil Sector in USD 5 Trillion Economyseaofindia.com/downloads/5 Mr Vijay Sardana.pdfMicrosoft PowerPoint - Mr Vijay Sardana Edible Oil Sector in USD 5 Trillion

By:Vijay Sardana

Food-Agribusiness Expert & AdvocateDirector, ARPL Techno-legal Services

IFC certified Corporate Governance Board Leadership TrainerIndependent Director, NABKISAN & MSEI & Member, CDAC, SEBI

Blog: Vijay Sardana Online

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Prime Minister Narendra Modi aimed for a 5 trillion dollar economy by 2024.


Prime Minister Narendra Modi aimed for Farm income will double in 2024

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Future of Consumption EconomyFuture of Consumption Economy

• The UN population forecast of 2017 waspredicting "near end of high fertility" globally andanticipating that by 2030 over ⅔ of worldpopulation will be living in countries with fertilitybelow the replacement level.below the replacement level.

• India's population to surpass that of Chinaaround 2024: UN


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Changing Demographics of IndiaChanging Demographics of IndiaIndia in 2001 India in 2026


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Median Age by 2026Median Age by 2026


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Global outlook for food use of Global outlook for food use of agricultural commoditiesagricultural commodities

• Total food use of the commodities covered in this Outlook is expected to grow steadily over the next decade at rates of 1.2% p.a. for cereals, 1.7% for animal products, 1.8% for sugar and vegetable oils, and 1.9% p.a. for pulses and roots and tubers.

• In general, per capita food consumption of staple products • In general, per capita food consumption of staple products (cereals, roots & tubers, pulses) has levelled off globally and will be driven predominantly by population growth, while the evolution of higher value commodity (sugar, vegetable oils, meat, dairy products) demand will be based on a combination of per-capita use and population growth.

• As a result, demand for higher value products is projected to grow faster than for staples over the next decade.


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Contribution of population to growth in food useContribution of population to growth in food use


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Contribution of food groups to total daily per capita Contribution of food groups to total daily per capita calorie availabilitycalorie availability


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Per cent change of food group in daily per capita calorie Per cent change of food group in daily per capita calorie availability, 2016availability, 2016--18 to 202818 to 2028


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Regional trends in agriculture & fisheries productionRegional trends in agriculture & fisheries production


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Change in agricultural land use, Change in agricultural land use, 20162016--18 to 202818 to 2028


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Now, let us understand why is the Now, let us understand why is the implication for all this…implication for all this…

• Population of India will be around 145 Crores

• Cultivable Land available : 14 Crore hectare for food, fibre, feed and fodder production

• Per capita land availability in India will be less than • Per capita land availability in India will be less than 100 sq. meter for production of food, fiber, feed and fodder for 365 days.

• It means average productivity of land in India should not be 10 tons per hectare to ensure food security.


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Annual GDP growth rates 2019Annual GDP growth rates 2019--20282028


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Per capita income growthPer capita income growth


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Population & Trade DynamicsPopulation & Trade Dynamics


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Agricultural trade balances by region, in constant valueAgricultural trade balances by region, in constant value


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Per capita food availability of vegetable oil Per capita food availability of vegetable oil in selected countriesin selected countries


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Direct GHG emissions from agricultureDirect GHG emissions from agriculture


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Percentage change in producer pricesPercentage change in producer prices


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Evolution of world oilseed pricesEvolution of world oilseed prices


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Future of Edible oil Sector in IndiaFuture of Edible oil Sector in India

• India’s demand for edible oil will be between 20 to 22 million tons

• Considering the demand & supply projections and cost dynamics Industry will go through structural changes.dynamics Industry will go through structural changes.

• In place of economics, many political considerations will impact market forces in edible oil industry.

• According to my estimate, India’s edible oil import bill cross USD 30 billion in next 10 years.


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Open for discussionOpen for discussion

Thank you


Documents

Mr Vijay Sardana Edible Oil Sector in USD 5 Trillion Economyseaofindia.com/downloads/5 Mr Vijay Sardana.pdfMicrosoft PowerPoint - Mr Vijay Sardana Edible Oil Sector in USD 5 Trillion