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ICEF ROADMAP
What business needs
Ben Vickers
22 April 2016
1 22 April 2016
WHAT BUSINESSES AND INVESTORS NEED
2 22 April 2016
DIFFERENT GRANULARITY FOR DIFFERENT AUDIENCES
3 22 April 2016
TALKING HELPS GET THINGS DONE
4 22 April 2016
UPDATES MAKE FOR A BETTER STORY
5
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
22 April 2016
AMERICAS INSTALLED CAPACITY 2012 AND 2040 AND PROJECTED CAPACITY ADDITIONS, BY TECHNOLOGY (GW)
2012 2040 Annual capacity additions, 2015-40
61%8%
4%
24%
1,571GW
27%
26%12%
19%
13%
2,696GW
6 22 April 2016
CAPITAL INVESTMENT BY REGION AND BY TECHNOLOGY, 2015-40 ($BN REAL)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000
MEA
Europe
RoW
Americas
APAC
Solar Fossil fuels Wind Other renewables Nuclear
$6,146bn
$1,760bn
$1,372bn
$1,738bn
$1,185bn
7 22 April 2016
COAL AND CO2 PRICE PROJECTION, 2015-40 ($T, NOMINAL)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
China
India
China CO2
Europe
California CO2
EU CO2
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
8
IMPACT OF FLOATING FOUNDATION ON CONVENTIONAL CAPEX BREAKDOWN, 2015 (%)
Note: Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Development
Turbine nacelle assembly
Blades
Castings and forgings
Drive Train
Tower
Turbine OtherCables
Foundations
Substations
Installation Foundations
Installation Turbine
Installation cables
Impacted by floating foundations
4%
45%
33%
18%
Development Wind turbine supply Balance of plant Installation
4%2%
12%
3%
14%
7%
7%
6%
20%
7%
8%
4%
7%
Capex
22 April 2016
9 22 April 2016
GET THE DECISION MAKERS TO TALK TO EACH OTHER
10 22 April 2016
11 22 April 2016
MARKET SHARE IN CCS TECHNOLOGIES
Note: The pool of projects considered here includes all projects in our high case forecast in Figure 1. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Alstom
AlstomAker
UOP
UOP
UOP
UOP
Lurgi
Lurgi
Air Products
Mitsubishi
Cansolv
GE
Air Liquide
unknown
unknown
unknownTBD
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Power plant Industrial Gas processing plant Oil refining Coal gasification
12 22 April 2016
WHO’S SPENDING WHAT WHERE
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
13
HISTORIC AND FUTURE COST OF FLOATING AND CONVENTIONAL FOUNDATIONS, 2005-20 (USDM/MW)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, METI,
Statoil
Hywind demonstration
WindFloat demonstration
Fukushima phase 1
IDEOL demonstration
Fukushima phases 2-3
Hywind Scotland
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
Monopile
Gravity
Jacket
Tripod
Floating
Historic learning curve
Projected learning curve
Historic learning rate for floating foundations = 34%
Floating foundation in 2020: $6.02m/MW
Conventional foundation in 2020: $0.74m/MW
22 April 2016
14
Note: Values from 2010-2014 are based on BNEF’s annual battery price index. Cumulative production is based on total
EVs sold and their respective battery pack size. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
22 April 2016
EV LITHIUM-ION BATTERY COST OUTLOOK, 2011-2030
0
100
200
300
400
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Global EV li-ionbatteryproduction
BNEF observedvalues
Moderatescenario: 15%learning rate
Aggressivescenario: 22%learning rate
BNEF observed values: annual lithium-ion battery price index 2010-15
Long-termcost range
EV battery pack costs ($/kWh) Global volumes (GWh)
15
What works:
● Being close to investors and close to business
● Having numbers and the names that go with those numbers
● And their phone number
● Giving information in the right format for each audience
● Defining the measures of success, in addition to markets
● Show what people are missing
● Don’t forget business must decide where to put its money
WHAT BUSINESS IS LOOKING FOR IN A ROADMAP
22 April 2016
16
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Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
The information contained in this publication is derived from carefully selected sources we believe are reasonable. We do
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a guarantee. Any opinions expressed reflect the current judgment of the author of the relevant article or features, and does
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COPYRIGHT AND DISCLAIMER
22 April 2016
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