Moving the Masses: The Economic Impact of Migration

Immigration in Context

“I believe immigration is the domestic social issue of our time – and a key to our future economic health.”

-Carlos M. Gutierrez, Secretary of Commerce Testimony to the Senate Judiciary Committee

“Historically, immigrant workers played a major role in building the strongest economy and the most vibrant democracy in the world. And immigrant workers played an even more important part in creating a strong union movement that lifted millions of families into the biggest middle class in history.”

-John J Sweeney, President, AFL-CIO 10th Annual David N. Dinkins Leadership & Public Policy Forum

Who and What are We talking About?

Policy Insight recognizes three different types of migrants:

– Economic Migrants

– Retired Migrants

– International Migrants.

Who and What are We talking About? (2)

In addition to migrants there are several other special types of populations

– Active Military

– College Students

– Prisoners

Points to Remember When Modeling Population Change

• Migration is cumulative. Migrants added in a given year are then added into the general population in the subsequent year.

• When adding economic migrants exogenously, make sure the new economic migrants do not end up leaving in the next year.

• Choose policy variables based on economic behavior, not labels. International graduate students generally earn and spend like domestic students, despite nominally being international migrants.

Scenario 1: Retiree Migration

Suppose that the Triangle region of North Carolina is written up in a national retiree magazine. The article sings the area’s praises, making it seem so attractive that 10,000 more retirees are expected to flock there in 2008-2018.

Scenario 2: Student Influx

A billionaire alum of UNC Chapel Hill has just passed away and left a large sum of money to the school. University officials estimate that with the gift they can increase capacity by 5,000 students.

Scenario 3: International Migrants

Assume that there is some sort of natural disaster or serious political upheaval in South Asia. As a result, refugees are granted asylum by the US. Of these refugees admitted to the US 2,000 settle in the metro Wilmington area for 3 years (the duration of the disruption).

Other Considerations

Things that may not be covered by simply changing the migrant numbers

• Induced productivity changes within the economy

• Atypical use of public services/security spending

• Is there an irregular demand/consumption effect?

• Remittances• Effect of laws surrounding certain

visa classes (e.g. H1-B, TN)

In the Next Session…

Session 3: Priming the Pump: Government Stimulus Policies• Discussion of Policy Insight’s capabilities in the

areas of government revenues and expenditures• An example of how to model a government fiscal

stimulus package