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The Peace Game
Matthew Powers, Lieutenant Commander, USN
Joint Center for International Security Force Assistance [email protected]
Danny Heerlein, Major, German Army [email protected]
Jeff Appleget, Ph.D, Colonel, USA (ret) Operations Research Department, Naval Postgraduate School
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The Peace Game is this…
…and lets you design this.
Part console. Part cartridge.
• Java-based, stand alone, process-driven: adjustable, stochastic algorithms, interacting factors
• Round-based
• Multiple Players (Government, military, NGOs, militia camps…)
• Move forces (tokens), negotiate with players, economic market.
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I want to move my forces south, aligned along the Sudan border and Abyei…
Such a move is a threat to the safety of South Sudan, and condemns your professional military to a lifetime of conflict.
Well, I, uh, don't think it's quite fair to condemn a whole program because of a single slip-up, sir.
Simply put…
Left to right: MAJ Brian Vogt, USA, LCDR Matt Powers, USN, LT Sarah Watson, USN, MAJ Danny Heerlein, German Army, Jeff Appleget, Ph.D. (NPS). Colonel, USA (ret), LT Ed Carlton, USN
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…in the beginning…
• Originally a class project: Wargaming Applications at NPS
– Jeff Appleget, Ph.D. (NPS). Colonel, USA (ret)
– Major Dan Heerlein, German Army
– LCDR Matt Powers, USN
– LT Sarah Watson, USN
– LT Edward Carlton, USN
– LT Jef Lineberry
– Mehmet Buhur, Turkey
– MAJ Brian Vogt, USA
– Requested by Marine Corps Combat Development Command (MCCDC)
• Model the response to mass atrocities in Abyei
– Pros/cons of various response types (“heavy” or “rapid”)
– MCCDC provided scenario details
• Advantageous flexibility inherent in software approach
– Unlimited scenarios
– Easy to change behavior of population
– SME inputs easy to facilitate
– Motivates discussion and decisions between players
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The Evolution of The Peace Game
dy/dx = (a/b)(x/y)
• Assumes human needs/resources main drivers of conflict
• Satisfaction Level Population reaction
• Conflict Discontent Migration/crime/death Instability…
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Population Algorithm
The Peace Game Dice
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The Scenario Generator
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The Scenario Generator - Regions
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The Scenario Generator - Units
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The Scenario Generator – Forces and tokens
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The Scenario Generator – Weather and behavior curves
Game Board
The scenario is designed, time to play…
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Playing the Game
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Playing the Game – Overlays, movement, fog of war
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Playing the Game – Token options, log file, weather
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Playing the Game – Market, resource management
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Analysis
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Future Work
• Uncertain future – Move mountains to put a few people together
• CCDM Textbook chapter
• NPS OR thesis – LCDR Dan White ([email protected])
• Playing through Sudan/RSS scenario
• Assessing algorithms/assumptions
• Client-server or web-browser version
• Separate population behaviors by specific attributes (age, sex, tribe, etc.)
• Chat functionality to facilitate secret “drug deals.”
• Inter-region hostilities based on resource distribution (checkpoints, hostilities, etc.)
• Auto-generated “God” player
• Instant interjection of disasters/significant events
• User-defined objectives embedded into software
• Notification if objective(s) achieved
• Alert if a game is “won.”
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Questions…after some stories
• UN player at NATO ACT – Fighting the model • German analyst – Wanted prediction tool, until he played!
• Military player – “I come in peace…” First to fight.
