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More Smiles, Less Miles
Tuesdays at APA
John Addison
Author, Save Gas, Save the PlanetPublisher, Clean Fleet Report
Readers Acclaim Save Gas, Save the Planet“This is the best book that I have seen describing practical solutions for driving less and buying the right vehicle. As someone responsible for the air quality for 7.5 million people, I recommend this book.”Jack BroadbentChief Executive Officer Bay Area Air Quality Management District
“Electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids and next generation fuels are all part of the clean tech revolution. John Addison delivers the fascinating details of today and tomorrow.”Clint WilderCo-Author of The Clean Tech Revolution and Contributing Editor at Clean Edge
"Read this book if you care about the future of our children. John Addison details the transportation solutions that will bring clear skies and reduce dangerous greenhouse gas emissions. It is fascinating to read about everything from smiles per gallon to electric vehicles, from people oriented development to high speed rail, and from driving less to enjoying life more."Assemblywoman Fiona Ma, California State Assembly Majority Whip
Catalyst for Change
Environment
Equity Imagination
Economy
More Smiles, Less MilesTrends in On-Road U.S. Transportation
• Smart Apps for Smart Travel• Clean Vehicles• Great Fuel Race• Ride Together & Ride Less• 80% Reduction GHG by 2050
At First Glance…
Urban• Happy Employers• Happy Merchants• Happy Commuters
Suburban• Happy Parents• Happy School Kids• Happy Cars
Major Trends• Oil Price > 250% of 2008 low of $32/barrel• Less Petroleum Consumed – peaked 2005• Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) - peaked
2007• Fewer Cars - dropped 3.5 million in 2009• Public Transit - 2008 50-year high• Emissions per vehicle is falling with CAFE• Electric Cars – 40,000 & growing• Smart Charging & Renewable Energy
3.5 Million Less U.S. Cars in 20091. Urban Density2. Smart Growth3. Public Transit4. Rail Connected5. One Car Households6. Employer Commute & Flexwork Programs7. Recession8. Cash for Clunkers9. Ride Sharing10. Car Sharing
Build It and They Will Come
Build It and They Will Come
Copyright by Comstock, Inc. 2000
Promise – Personal Planning Tools
Reality
Smart Apps add Transit, Bike, Walk
Smart Apps Get Personal
• Public Transit• Rail• Car• Car Share• Ride Share• Walk• Bicycling• Bike Share• Electric Car
511 + Realtime + Web 3.0
Personal Navigation Assistant
2010 Cars with Lowest GHG1. Toyota Prius2. Honda Civic Hybrid3. Honda Insight4. Ford Fusion Hybrid5. smart fortwo6. Honda Civic CNG7. Lexus HS 250h8. Nissan Altima Hybrid9. Toyota Camry Hybrid10. Ford Escape Hybridwww.cleanfleetreport.com
Circle of Life
Share the Gas Miser
4 Tons CO2 12 Tons CO2
Electric Vehicles coming to a freeway near you
• Tesla Roadster• Nissan LEAF• Toyota Prius Plug-in Hybrid• Chevy Volt• Ford Transit Connect• Ford Focus EV and PHEV• BYD E6• Fisker Karma• Think EVOver 40,000 on U.S. streets today
THE NISSAN EV
All the feature customers have come to expect:
Compact Car Size
Space For 5 People
100-Mile Range Advanced
SafetyFeatures
Renewable Energy Cost Trends
Wind
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
PV
CO
E c
ents
/kW
h
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
40
30
20
10
0
100
80
60
40
20
0
BiomassGeothermal Solar thermal
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
CO
E c
ents
/kW
h
10
8
6
4
2
0
706050403020100
15
12
9
6
3
0
Source: NREL Energy Analysis Office (www.nrel.gov/analysis/docs/cost_curves_2002.ppt)1These graphs are reflections of historical cost trends NOT precise annual historical data.
Hybrid Medium & Heavy Vehicles
Potential 50% to 100% Emission Reduction
• Buses• Shuttles• Utilities’ Fleets• Delivery Fleets• Government• Trucks – Local &
Regional
Policy & Technology Drivers
• Fleet Economics• Idle-Off• SwartWay Truck Efficiency• CARB 2015 Hybrid
Required• CALSTART HTUF• Military Security• HEV Pathway to PHEV,
FCV, EV
Great Fuel Race
Petroleum Fuels• Gasoline• Diesel• U.S. = 97% PetroleumLow Carbon Fuels• Biofuels• Electricity• Natural Gas• Hydrogen
USMC Camp Pendleton Fleet
300+ Solar Charged EV
Hydrogen
5 Million Gallons B20
JP8 Tactical
Lighter than Air Fleets
• 2009 = 7 Million Natural Gas Vehicles
• 2009 = 1,000 Hydrogen Vehicles• H2 Vehicles 3X efficiency of
engine powered vehicles• Fleets have infrastructure• Consumers lack infrastructure• Renewable CH4 + H2• 2020 = 20 Million Natural Gas
Vehicles?• 2020 = 1 Million Hydrogen
Vehicles?
Renewable to Byproduct Hydrogen
Solar & REC Electrolysis Onsite CNG Reformation
LH2 DeliveredPipelined Byproduct
Biofuels• Corn Ethanol• Cellulosic Ethanol• Biogasoline Blends • Soy Biodiesel• Waste Biofuels• Algal biocrude & biofuelsFuture:• Fuel from wood and waste, not food and haste• All blending at refinery
– Valero #3 Biofuel Producer/Refiner– E10 to E20– B5 to B20– Biogasoline– Biocrude
• Electric drive 70% vs. engine 20% efficiency• Flexfuel vehicles & E85 Obsolete
GHG Source-to-Wheels DebateCalifornia Global Warming Intensity at Wheel (g CO2e/MJ)
114Corn with Coal ElectricityEthanol-12Cellulosic from Poplar TreesEthanol27California AverageElectricity
22Biomass & Pipeline DeliveryHydrogen48Onsite CH4 ReformedHydrogen79North American PipelinedCNG
167Coal-to-LiquidDiesel71ULSD RefinedDiesel92Oil RefinedGasoline
GREETProductionFuel
DOT Report to Congress 4/2010
Lifecycle GHG
$200 Oil Scenario: Electric Drive System Wins
2050
2020
Now
BioblendHydrogenElectricity
ElectricityDieselBioblend
Gasoline Bioblend
EthanolDieselGasoline
Employer ProgramsClean Fleet Potential > 10 Million CarsRide Share Programs• Incentives to Reduce Parking Spaces• Internal Website with Rideshare• Rideshare Zip Code Matching• Lunch & Learns• Corporate Car Sharing• Bike Sharing• Sponsor Events with Enterprise, Zipcar, etc.• Guaranteed Ride HomePublic Transportation
Public Transportation
50-year Record Ridership 2008• Rail• Light-rail• Bus Rapid Transit• Buses on Fixed Routes• Dynamic routed buses &
shuttles• Smart Apps for Smart Travel• Intermodal Connections
98% of U.S. Commuters Favor Public Transportation
for Others
- headline in the Onion
Public Transportation Trends• Revenue Challenges• Route & Frequency Prioritizing• Hybrid & Low Carbon Fuels• Suburban Commuter Buses• Realtime Info• Smart Apps• Dynamic Scheduling & Routing for
Events & Universities• Urban BRT
Transit Oriented Development
Secrets of Curitiba
Bus Rapid Transit
• Population Tripled• Car Population Dropped 30%• Visionary Leadership• Build Support over Time• Smart Growth
• Less expensive than rail• Flexible routes over 40 years• High capacity buses• Sheltered waiting• Prepayment• Rapid boarding• Fewer stops• Can be stepping stone to Light Rail
Intermodal Future
San Jose
Los Angeles
Ride Clean & Ride LessA Lesson in Smart Growth
Washington DC Invites Walking
• 11% walking commuters• 34% transit + walking
commuters• Urban density• Sidewalks & walkways• Parks• Expensive Parking
Schools without Gridlock• College/University
– Transit Passes paid for 100% students/staff
– Bicycle programs– Electric buses &
shuttles• High School - Low
cost transit• Middle School –
bicycle programs• Elementary – walk to
school programs
Bicycle Travelers• Daily commuters• Students• Recreation• Occasional Mode
Shifters
One Billion Bicycles Globally – 60 Million USA
Bicycle Commuters
• Regional Plan• Regional Bikeway
Network• Safe Bike Lanes• Transit with Adequate
Storage• Employer Storage• Employer Change
Rooms
Bicycle to Schools• Safe Routes to Schools• Bike to School Days• Bike Riding & Safety Clinics• Include in Teacher / Parent
Meetings• Safe Storage• Financial Incentives• College & University
Sponsored Events
Bicycle Recreation• Regional Plan• Safe Off-Street Paths• Paths with
Landmarks & Destinations
• Bike Clubs & Enviro Outreach Events
Occasional Mode-Shift
• Safe Routes to Transit• Bike Sharing near Transit &
Employment Centers• Smart Apps• Separated & Painted Bike Lanes• Merchant Promoted Street Fairs• Secure Storage
Community Programs• Smart Growth• Transit Oriented Development• SB375 Support• Parking Revenue• Merchant Sponsored Car-Free Days• Bikeway & Walkway Co-Funding• Commuter Express Buses• Rideshare • Transit Dynamic Scheduling for Events
Universities =Early Adopters
Bicycle Public Transit
Car SharingSmart Apps
U.S. Strategies to Reduce GHG1. Introduce low-carbon fuels2. Increase vehicle fuel economy3. Improve transportation system efficiency4. Reduce carbon-intensive travel activity5. Align transportation planning and
investments to achieve GHG reduction6. Price carbon
U.S. DOT GHG Report to Congress 4/2010
Climate Action Plans
80 / 2050 SF Bay Scenario
Vehicles : VMT : GHG/vehicle
15% : 28% : 67% = 80% Reduction of CO2e Emissions
80% Reduction GHG by 2050 Scenario for On-Road Transportation
80%66%47%16%(10%)(11%)GHG Reduction % from 1990
5.28.913.821.928.629.026.1Total GHG(MMT CO2e)
0.10.10.10.10.20.20.2Other
0.80.80.80.80.80.80.5Buses
1.01.41.92.73.33.03.1Heavy-duty vehicles
3.36.611.018.324.425.022.3Passenger cars & light trucks
2050204020302020201020001990
Ride TogetherImprove Infrastructure
Public TransitRide Share
Rail
Ride LessShift Transportation Behavior
• Smart Growth• Paid Parking• Safe Routes• Bicycling• Walking• Flexible Work• Telepresense• Education & Outreach
Ride CleanImprove Vehicles and Fuels
• Annual MPG Improvement
• Electric Vehicles• Charging Infrastructure• Green Fleets• Hybrid Heavy-Duty• Low Carbon Fuels
80% Scenario Requires 4% Annual GHG Reduction from Passenger Vehicles
Pick One• 10% vehicles replaced annually with a
vehicle with 40% improved MPG • 2% vehicles replaced annually with ZEV• 4% annual reduction in cars owned• 5% improvement in passengers/vehicle• 5% reduction in VMTor Combine with Easier Goals
U.S. DOT GHG Report to Congress 4/2010
Passenger Vehicle GHG Reduction
3.36.611.018.324.425.022.3Passenger cars & light trucks
2050204020302020201020001990
Cleaner Cars•CAFE 35.5 Mpg by 2016; over 70 MPG by 2050•1 million plug-in vehicles in Bay Area by 2046•Plug-ins use renewable energy•Cars drop from 4.6 million to 3.9 million by 2050
Behavior shift from solo driving to intermodal•Smart Apps – fund 511, etc.•Employer & community rideshare programs
VMT reduction 0.8%/yr per vehicle•Demographics & smart growth (SB375)•Walk/bike trips +3%/yr; city & university programs
Heavy-Duty & Other GHG Reduction
0.10.10.10.10.20.20.2Other
0.80.80.80.80.80.80.5Buses1.01.41.92.73.33.03.1Heavy-duty vehicles
2050204020302020201020001990
•Medium & Heavy Duty Vehicles•50% fleet efficiency economics•CARB Hybrid Requirements•Low Carbon Fuels•HEV pathway to HEV/low carbon fuels, PHEV, EV
•Buses•Constant GHG because ridership grows 250%•Transit rail linked; rail uses renewable energy•CARB ZEB + ZEV technology + Co-funding DOT/AB118
•Other•RV reduction & hybridization from feebate & gas tax•Globally most motorbikes already e-bikes
80% Reduction GHG by 2050 Scenario for On-Road Transportation
80%66%47%16%(10%)(11%)GHG Reduction % from 1990
5.28.913.821.928.629.026.1Total GHG(MMT CO2e)
0.10.10.10.10.20.20.2Other
0.80.80.80.80.80.80.5Buses
1.01.41.92.73.33.03.1Heavy-duty vehicles
3.36.611.018.324.425.022.3Passenger cars & light trucks
2050204020302020201020001990
Smart Growth• Urban
– Boundaries– Transit Oriented Development
• Suburban– LEED-ND– VMT Reduction– Safe Routes Schools & Transit
• RegionalIntegrated Plans (AB375)– Development / Land Use– Transportation– Greenhouse Gas EmissionsIncentives & Funding Support
Considerations for Planners
• Intermodal Future• Smart Growth• Regional Plan Integration• Regional ITS• Walkways• Bikeways• Last Miles to Transit Solutions• Paid Charging not Free Parking
More Smiles, Less Miles• Smart Apps for Smart Travel• Clean Vehicles• Great Fuel Race• Ride Together & Ride Less• 80% Reduction GHG by 2050
Get the Reports / Join the Dialog
www.cleanfleetreport.com