MONTHLY RISK FORECAST - MitKat · THE MONTH THAT WAS } Jat agitation fails to generate mass support in Haryana }Increase in militant attacks against security forces in Jammu & Kashmir}India's

THE MONTH THAT WAS

} Jat agitation fails to generate mass support in Haryana

} Increase in militant attacks against security forces in Jammu & Kashmir

} India's ranking in the Global Peace Index improves from 143 in 2015 to 141 in 2016

} Twenty-four people killed in a clash between police and encroachers in Mathura

FORECAST FOR JULY 2016

} Heavy rains may lead to waterlogging, landslides and traffic disruptions in several cities across India

th} Strike by central government employees on July 11 likely to disrupt public sector operations

} Increase in common diseases during the monsoon

} Heightened security and traffic congestions during Eid-ul-Fitrlikely

NAXAL TRACKER

} In Jharkhand, Maoists are increasingly targeting government entities and construction companies. Reports also indicate Maoists in the region are acquiring weapons, including M-16 rifles, from Northeast insurgents.

ISLAMIC STATE - SOUTH ASIA TRACKER

} In a major development related to IS in India, the NIA arrested five suspected IS militant in Hyderabad. Other related developments include, a pro-IS group released a target list of Indian nationals, and an IS-inspired nationwide module in India trying to contact Maoists for "seeking shelter" after carrying out "violent acts".

REGIONAL SNAPSHOT

} Bangladesh: Islamic State continues to claim responsibility for attacks Spotlight:

} Myanmar: Villagers attack a mosque in Central Myanmar

} Pakistan: Sufi singer Amjad Hussain Sabri shot dead in Karachi; Pakistani Taliban faction claims responsibility

} Afghanistan: Taliban intensifies its attacks in Kabul and other parts of the country

} Sri Lanka: Continued agitation by businessmen, educated professionals and students against various government policies

} Nepal: Nepali nationals banned from working in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and Libya after terrorist attack in Kabul kills 13 Nepalis

} Maldives: Maldives opposition creates coalition against government

Can technology be a solution for women's safety?

EXPERT SPEAK

th st} July 6 : Rath Yatra in Odisha } July 21 : Martyrs' Day observed by Trinamool Congress

th th} July 6 : Eid-ul-Fitr (depending on the moon sighting) } July 27 : ULFA Martyrs' Day

th th rd} July 11 : Strike by Central Government Employees } July 28 – August 3 : Martyrs' Week commemorated by the

th th} July 12 & 13 : Strike by employees of SBI Associate Banks Maoists

th} July 13 : Kashmir Martyrs' Day

EVENT CALENDAR

5 6 7 8 9

10 15

17 18 20 21 22 23

24 25 26

11 13 14 16

27 28

1 2

3 4

12

19

29 3031

July 2016

MONTHLY RISK FORECASTJULY 2016

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Jammu & Kashmir National Uttar Pradesh

he latest round of Jat agitation, which began The state remained largely peaceful and no thTon June 5 , failed to gain support among the untoward incident was reported. Activists of

AIJASS staged dharnas (sit-ins) at various places, community in Haryana and other states where mostly in villages which fell under the 15 districts the Jats are in majority. The All-India Jats of Haryana including Rohtak, Sonepat, Jind and Aarakshan Sangarsh Samiti (AIJASS) was leading Hisar districts. Some khaps of Jind district also the protests this time, however, the other major supported the demands of the Samiti. The Indian Jat groups such as the Jat Sangarsh Samiti and National Lok Dal and Congress Party also pledged Khap panchayats decided to stay away from the support to the agitation. Some Jat activists also agitation, thus diminishing the support base for observed relay fasts in order to press for their the protests. The leader of AIJASS is a Jat leader

government cleared the bill of reservation on demands. However, the response to agitations from Uttar Pradesh, and that may have been one stApril 1 and notified (for Jats and five other held by the AIJASS remained muted in most areas of the reasons why the agitation failed to gain

thcommunities) on May 12 after the Jat of the state. support in the state of Haryana. Meanwhile, the community had threatened to re-launch the Haryana Government was better prepared this protest if the assembly failed to pass the bill Haryana had suffered a loss of around Rs 20,000 time to handle the law and order situation. before the last day of the budget session on crore during the February 2016 Jat agitation. Enough security arrangements were made

stMarch 31 .Moreover, collateral damage was done to preceding the commencement of the agitation, businesses and industries in Delhi, Punjab, unlike the last time when the government was Himachal Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh.completely unprepared. Post the violent agitation, the Haryana

Jat agitation fails to generate mass support in Haryana

India Monthly Risk Forecast - July 2016

The Month

That Was

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Haryana

1

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rdn June 23 , militants (allegedly belonging Bijbehara on the Srinagar-Jammu National rdOto the Lashkar-e-Taiba) in a fidayeen Highway in Anantnag District on June 3 . Hizbul

attack, targeted a convoy of Central Reserve Mujahideen had claimed responsibility for the Police Force (CRPF) at Pampore on Srinagar- attack on the BSF convoy. In addition, there also Jammu Highway killing eight personnel and have been other regular incidents of skirmishes injuring 20 others. The attack on the convoy was between militants and security forces in the past the third high profile militant attack on the month. national highway in recent months. Incidentally, a few weeks ago, the CRPF had generated an After a relative calm of three years, Kashmir has intelligence report that a “spectacular terrorist witnessed an increase in militant attacks and attack would take place in Srinagar on or around infiltration from across the Line of Control (LoC)

ththe 17 day of Ramzan. ”The two LeT terrorists and International Border (IB). Close to 100 people Heavy security has been put in place for the rd thkilled in the June 23 encounter, on the 18 day have already died in Kashmir in 2016 due to Amarnath Yatra, which is due to commence on

ndof Ramzan, were part of a group of 14 who had terrorist/militant attacks; this includes civilians, July 2 . In the wake of the increased infiltration by infiltrated near Bandipore in north Kashmir on security forces and terrorists. The terrorist attacks militants from across the border, along with the

thJune 17 . The Army had reportedly intercepted this year have claimed the lives of 30 security growing numbers of local militants in the valley, the group and four militants were killed in the personnel, which includes the casualties in the especially in South Kashmir, 2016 could well be ensuing gunfight, however, the remaining 10 latest Pampore strike, while 64 terrorists have the 'hot summer' for the Indian security agencies.had escaped and were suspected to have been killed. In the year 2015, the number of dispersed in two groups. security personnel martyred was 41, when

compared to the death of 113 terrorists. A much Meanwhile, earlier in June, three BSF personnel lower total of 17 security personnel lost their lives were killed and seven others critically injured in 2012, while 84 terrorists were neutralized in when militants ambushed their convoy near that year.

Increase in militant attacks against security forces in Jammu & Kashmir

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Haryana Jammu & Kashmir National Uttar Pradesh

2India Monthly Risk Forecast - July 2016

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ccording to the level of peacefulness The index, which measures peace across 163 Acalculated by Global Peace Index (GPI) countries, is calculated by the Economist 2016, India has been ranked 141 out of 163 Intelligence Unit, and produced by the Institute

rd for Economics and Peace, a global think tank. As countries. In 2015, India was ranked at the 143 per the index, the world's least peaceful countries position. Although the rank has improved from are Syria, South Sudan, Iraq, Afghanistan and last year, India is still less peaceful than the likes Somalia, while the most peaceful countries are of Burundi, Burkina Faso, among others, and its Iceland, Denmark, Austria, New Zealand and peace score has in fact declined. Among South Portugal. The index is calculated based on three Asian countries, India is at the bottom of the broad metrics: the level of safety and security in pack when it comes to the state of peace in the society, the extent of domestic or international country, faring better than only Pakistan and conflict, and the degree of militarization. Global Afghanistan.peace declined in 2015 and the economic impact of violence was $13.6 trillion (a 2% drop from last India spent $679.80 billion or Rs.45.3 trillion on year) in terms of purchasing power parity basis.violence containment expenditure in 2015. This

amounts to 9% of India's GDP on a PPP (purchasing power parity) basis, higher than the 4.7% of GDP it spent on containing violence in 2014. In the last decade India has deteriorated in peace by 5% largely due to deteriorations in the indicators measuring UN peacekeeping funding and the level of political terror.

India's ranking in the Global Peace Index improves from 143 in 2015

to 141 in 2016



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t least 24 people, including two police included a list of irrational demands such as Ao f f i c e r s ( o n e o f t h e m b e i n g a annulling the election of the President and Prime Superintendent of Police), were killed, on June Minister, issue of Indian National Army currency,

nd2 , in a clash between police and the Swadheen and sale of tens litres of fuel for a rupee. Members Bharat Vidhik Satyagrahi, also known as of the sect are said to be the followers of Jai Swadheen Bharat Subhash Sena or the 'Netaji' Gurudev, a self-proclaimed spiritual leader from sect. The high level of violence was during an Uttar Pradesh, who died in 2012. Swadheen anti-encroachment drive in the JawaharBagh Bharat members were from a splinter group of area of Mathura. The police action came after supporters of the late spiritual leader, and the Allahabad High Court had, acting on a PIL, pledged allegiance to Netaji Subhash Chandra directed the authorities to vacate the land, and Bose. the encroachers had been on edge ever since reportedly trained in firearms. However, the local the Court's directive. According to the police, Earlier, they had chased Horticulture Department police were completely caught off-guard when the members of the 'secret cult' were heavily staff away from the area and confronted any they confronted the group, resulting in the death armed and had sufficient ammunitions to attack visitors with fierce violence. The encroachers had of two police officers.the police, who were taken by surprise when set up their own system of administration by they were attacked with guns, swords, grenades establishing 'courts' and 'jail barracks', and had and knives. their own ways of punishment and reprimand.

Thousands of supporters from the group had Such incidents point towards an intelligence kept the police and district administration of failure on the part of the authorities. In little over Mathura on their toes for more than two years, two years, the group had built an arsenal of demonstrating at JawaharBagh in the city since firearms and bombs in Mathura's largest public early 2014 with numerous demands. This park. Even the children of the group were

Twenty-four people killed in a clash between police and encroachers in

Mathura



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eavy rains during the monsoon season Major cities of India including Delhi, Mumbai, Hresult in water accumulat ing on Kolkata, Bengaluru and Chennai are expected to transportation routes in cities causing traffic receive heavy rainfall in the July – September jams on roads and major inconvenience to period and it is advised to stay updated on pedestrians. On highways in hilly areas, heavy weather news and avoid areas where rainfall can also cause landslides which can lead waterlogging is common. During heavy to important road routes getting blocked. downpour, it is also advised to avoid venturing Drainage networks in most cities are incapable out to low-lying areas or areas close to river of handling moderate to heavy rainfall during banks. Travelling to or passing through areas the monsoon season. Heavy rainfall causes an prone to landslides should also be avoided. As a overflow of water in these drains and thus precautionary measure, emergency numbers water contaminated with sewage gets should be saved on the speed-dial list of your

Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Assam and accumulated on city roads causing health phone.West Bengal should revisit their business hazards, apart from the inconvenience caused resilience and continuity plans; and cater for to commuters. The brief spells of rainfall in the A combination of rise in water levels of Yamuna emergency evacuations of employees well in month of June, in Mumbai, led to waterlogging River, heavy rains and choked drains could also time. Following meteorological news and in low-lying areas and severe traffic congestions. lead to water-logging in parts of Delhi during the advisories for updates on weather and traffic With the coming months, the situation is monsoon season. Similarly, a combination of delays/disruptions will assist in efficient planning.expected to worsen, as Mumbai receives heavy heavy rains and high tide could lead to water

to very heavy rainfall in the months of July and logging in parts of Mumbai. Organisations, August. particularly those with operations in Mumbai,

Delhi, Kolkata and coastal cities; Uttarakhand,

Heavy rains may lead to waterlogging, landslides and traffic disruptions

in several cities across India

The Month

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National National National Event CalendarNational


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ollowing the proposal of Union government There have been several meetings with the Union Fto bring Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), government and it appears that they are not more than 35 lakh employees of various sectors paying any heed to the workers' genuine

thincluding railway, postal, defence and demands. Thus, on July 11 , the employees of telecommunication and 40 other Central various unions of nearly 50 departments of government departments, have declared to go Central government including banks, insurance,

thon an indefinite strike from July 11 . This was postal, water board, army engineering and others informed by the State Joint Council of Action, will participate in the indefinite strike. All the which has trade unions of railways, insurance, employees of nearly 42 trade unions of Central banks, postal and telecom services and army government will start the strike from 6 am

thengineering services. In June, a massive onwards on July 11 .demonstration was organised in front of the violence and people getting injured, which is a

thParliament in Delhi, on June 24 , in this Despite the government's announcement to usual occurrence during such agitations. Shops, connection. implement the recommendations of the Seventh markets and business establishments in most

Pay Commission, the employees have decided to areas may remain closed, causing inconvenience The employees are demanding higher minimum go ahead with their agitation. to both business owners and local residents. wages, restructuring of the National Pension Public buses, autos and taxis may remain off Scheme, scrapping of the Bibek Debroy report The massive, large scale strike will most likely roads. Banking operations will be affected as bank on Railway restructuring, no FDI in Railways and disrupt public sector operations and also affect unions are likely to participate in this strike. Defence, regularisation of casual/contract the lives of the residents residing in those areas. Businesses and individuals will need to plan workers. Most importantly, they wanted the Train services will either be delayed or altogether a c co rd i n g l y a n d c l o s e l y fo l l o w l o ca l Union Government to implement the blocked from running as per the usual schedules. developments to stay updated on the situation.recommendations of Seventh Pay Commission. Police and armed forces may need to be deployed

to contain the situation if there are reports of

thStrike by central government employees on July 11 likely to disrupt

public sector operations

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he arrival of monsoon season in India results During the monsoon season, some necessary Tin an increase in rate of contracted diseases measures must be adopted as a precaution among the general population. The monsoons against various water and food-borne diseases. bring along with it a host of infections that are Some measures that should be followed are prevalent during the rainy season. The humidity maintaining proper hygiene, drinking only boiled during this period also provides an ideal or filtered water, avoiding uncovered and street environment for propagation of virus and food, avoiding contact with stagnant rainwater bacteria, resulting in significant health hazards. and preventing accumulation of stagnant water in Some major diseases prevalent during this areas around residences. The accumulation of period are hepatitis A, typhoid, and dengue. The water in puddles and potholes is a major health arrival of monsoon marks the onset of a host of hazard during this period as this stagnant water vegetation around residential areas can also be o t h e r w a t e r a n d v e c t o r - b o r n e becomes an ideal breeding ground for disease cleared to reduce mosquito infestation.diseases/conditions also like influenza, cholera, propagating vectors.malaria, diarrhoea and skin problems. Most of the diseases during this period are caused by Preventive measures to reduce the chances of eating/drinking contaminated food or water, contracting a vector-borne disease (mainly mosquito or other insect bites, or through mosquitoes) is to wear clothes with minimum breathing in respiratory droplets from an skin exposure, using insect repellents, actively infected person. Some of these diseases may checking the surroundings for spots where even turn fatal if effective and timely treatment rainwater can accumulate like water tanks, dust is not provided. bins, plant pots and flat terraces etc. During rains,

Increase in common diseases during the monsoon

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id-ul-Fitr is a gazetted holiday in India. It been deployed across the state of Uttar Pradesh Ecelebrates the end of Ramazan and marks along with police and other paramilitary forces to the first day of the Islamic month of Shawwal. ensure peace on the festival. This would suggest The date of Eid al-Fitr may vary from country to that similar measures would be taken during the country depending on whether the moon has celebration of the festival this year as well. The been sighted or not. Initial reports suggest that mosques see a lot of visitors on Eidul-Fitr. Some of in India, it is most likely to be celebrated on July the most visited mosques of India are Jama

th6 (Wednesday). On this day, national, state and Masjid in Delhi, Aishbagh Idgah in Lucknow and local government offices, post offices and banks Mecca Masjid in Hyderabad. will remain closed. Islamic stores, businesses and other organizations could be closed or have Though there is no specific input this year, the reduced opening hours. month of Ramzan has been subject to terror

threats from extremist groups espousing Large prayer meetings, parades and marches fundamentalist ideologies in the past. Apart from may cause local delays to traffic, particularly in this, some incidences of communal violence have areas with a predominantly Muslim population been reported in the past in multi-religious and areas that are close to large mosques. Large residential localities in Bihar, Maharashtra, crowds are also the known operating grounds Assam, Gujarat, West Bengal, and Uttar Pradesh for petty criminals. In addition, there are during the month.chances of violent protests breaking out as has been seen in the previous years. Previously, as The general public will have to remain cautious many as 44 companies of Provincial Armed when venturing out into public spaces and plan in Constabulary (PAC), 10 of Rapid Action Force advance in order to avoid the traffic congested (RAF) and six of Rapid Response Force (RRF) had areas.

Heightened security and traffic congestions during Eid-ul-Fitrlikely

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thw July 6 :

thw July 6 :

thw July 11 :

th thw July 12 & 13 :

thw July 13 :

stw July 21 :

thw July 27 :

th rdw July 28 – August 3 :

Rath Yatra in Odisha Eid-ul-Fitr (depending on the moon sighting)

Strike by Central Government EmployeesStrike by employees of SBI Associate

Banks Kashmir Martyrs' DayMartyrs' Day observed by Trinamool

Congress ULFA Martyrs' Day

Martyrs' Week commemorated by the Maoists

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Haryana Event CalendarNational

9

Key DatesJuly 2016

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat

5 7 8 9

10 15

17 18 20 22 23

24 25 26

14 16

1 2

3 4

19

29 30

31


6

11 12 13

21

27 28

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Myanmar Pakistan Sri LankaAfghanistan Nepal Maldives

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he attacks on minorities and government in the country. In order to curb the increasing Telements across Bangladesh, claimed by instances of violence in the country, Bangladesh Islamic State, continued in the month of June. police detained over 5,000 persons, including many Armed assailants killed the wife of a police officer belonging to Islamist parties. In June, police in Chittagong and a Christian trader was killed in launched the week-long campaign focused on Baraigram area of Natore district, earlier in June. arresting Islamist militants, across the country. Later, a seventy-year-old Hindu priest was killed in Among the militants arrested, 47 were reportedly Jhenidah district. The incident occurred when he members of banned militant outfit Jama'atul was on his way to a temple in Naldanga, when Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) while one belonged three assailants on a motorcycle intercepted and to Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT). The week-long stabbed him, killing him on the spot. In another back to February 2015. Nearly 50 people have been operation was aimed at dismantling all terrorist incident, unidentified assailants hacked a 62-year- killed in attacks associated with Islamic extremists, outfits and their networks in the country. old Hindu monastery worker to death in Pabna since 2013. In 2015, at least five secular bloggers

th and a publisher were murdered in alleged Islamist district of Bangladesh. On June 15 , a Hindu There has been a serious decline in respect for militant attacks. The Islamic State group had college lecturer was seriously wounded after freedom of expression and the associated rights of claimed responsibility for several high profile being hacked by three men in an attack in freedom of association, religion or belief in attacks on foreigners and religious minorities in the Madaripur. Later in the month, Bangladesh Bangladesh. Deeply entrenched and widening country last year. The ABT and al-Qaeda in the authorities, stepped up security measures for the political differences between the ruling Awami Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) had claimed Dhaka branch of Ramakrishna Mission, two days League, the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist responsibility for killing many progressive writers in after the resident chief priest of the order received Party (BNP) and its allies have contributed to a Bangladesh since 2013. The government has denied a letter with death threat. Security was also government crackdown on freedom of expression, that the Islamic State group has a presence in the increased at Dharmarajik Buddhist Monastery in with Bangladesh's vibrant civil society also under country, and has accused domestic Islamist groups Dhaka after the high priest received a death threat, attack. Islamist militants have targeted atheist and political opponents for the violence.through mail. The militant group Islamic State (IS) bloggers, academicians, religious minorities and

claimed responsibility for most of these incidents foreign aid workers in a series of killings that dates

Islamic State continues to claim responsibility for attacks

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10

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group of men from a village in central violence threatening to undo the democratic AMyanmar destroyed a mosque in the first gains made since the military junta stepped down serious outburst of inter-religious violence in in 2011. The worst religious violence struck months, coinciding with a rise in tensions over central Myanmar and western Rakhine State, how to refer to the Rohingya, the country's which is home to the stateless Rohingya Muslim persecuted Muslim minority. Villagers from minority, tens of thousands of whom still languish Thayethamin, a remote settlement northeast of in displacement camps after rioting. Hundreds Yangon, destroyed the mosque after a dispute died in clashes in northwestern Rakhine State over its construction, and beat up at least one between Rohingya Muslims and ethnic Rakhine Muslim man. Police reinforcements were Buddhists, leading to the organized expulsion of deployed to guard the village in central Rohingya by Buddhist mobs. More violence Myanmar. It is the latest flare-up of anti-Muslim between Muslims and Buddhists in other parts of

immigrants from Bangladesh. The UN has warned violence in Myanmar, which has seen sporadic the country followed in 2013. The violence that violations against the group could amount to bouts of religious bloodshed since 2012, with a coincides with a rise in tensions over how to refer crimes against humanity, and urged the surge of Buddhist nationalism presenting a key to the Rohingya, a 1.1-million group of Muslims government to build trust between religious challenge for the new government. living in apartheid-like conditions in Rakhine communities.province since the 2012 violence. The Rohingya

Religious tensions have simmered in Myanmar identify themselves by that name, many having for almost half a century of military rule, before lived in Myanmar for generations. However, boiling over in 2012, just a year after a semi- extremist monks and Buddhist nationalists civilian government took power. Strident anti- fiercely oppose moves to recognise the Rohingya Muslim sentiment has fomented across as an official minority and insist on calling them Myanmar in recent years, with outbreaks of "Bengalis", a term implying they are illegal

Villagers attack a mosque in Central Myanmar

11

Myanmar


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ne of Pakistan's best known Sufi musicians, violence. In May, gunmen shot dead prominent OAmjad Sabri, was shot dead in the Pakistani rights activist Khurram Zaki, known for ndsouthern port city of Karachi on June 22 . He his outspoken stance against the Taliban and

was shot several times in the city's Liaqatabad other radical Islamist groups, in the central part of area, when a motorcycle pulled up alongside the the city. In April 2015, prominent activist Sabeen vehicle and the attackers opened fire. A faction Mahmud was shot and killed while traveling in her of the Pakistani Taliban (Tehreek-e-Taliban car.Pakistan (TTP)) claimed responsibility for the attack. The attack came two days after masked Violence is common in Karachi despite a sharp men kidnapped the son of a top provincial judge decline in murders since the Pakistani military in the city. launched a crackdown more than two years ago

against suspected militants and violent criminals. but they have been beaten back by repeated Sabri was a leading exponent of Sufi devotional Karachi's murder rate has fallen sharply since military operations since 2009. They now operate music, known as Qawwali. Sufism, a tolerant, 2013 due to the Karachi operation led by Pakistani in smaller pockets in ethnic Pashtun areas near mystical practice of Islam, has millions of Rangers. The Pakistani Taliban are fighting the Afghan border, from where they launch followers in Pakistan but is opposed by Pakistani government forces establish a strict bombings and armed attacks on Pakistani forces extremists. The Pakistan Taliban, who view Islamist rule in Pakistan. Hundreds of militants are and other targets.Sufism as heretical, have been blamed for said to have taken refuge in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa previous assaults on targets linked to Sufi Islam. province after fleeing a military offensive against Sabri's death was the latest in a high-profile their stronghold of North Waziristan, along the series of attacks in Karachi, a city of 20 million Afghan border to the south. The Pakistani Taliban battling with political, ethnic and sectarian controlled swathes of territory in the northwest,

Sufi singer Amjad Hussain Sabri shot dead in Karachi;

Pakistani Taliban faction claims responsibility

12

Pakistan


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ore than 20 people were killed in lifelines in a country where roads are the major Mseparate bomb attacks in Afghanistan on means of transport. Before the latest abduction, thJune 20 , including at least 14 who died when a more than 200 people were reported to have

suicide bomber struck a minibus carrying Nepali been kidnapped on the road since the end of May, security guards working at the Canadian with at least another 21 murdered in northern Embassy in Kabul. On the same day, at least eight and eastern Afghanistan. Meanwhile, the attacks civilians were killed and 18 others wounded in are the latest in a surge of violence that highlights an explosion at a crowded market in the the challenges faced by the government and its northern province of Badakhshan. The Taliban allies. claimed responsibility for these attack in Kabul. However, it denied responsibility for the attack The Taliban continues to make gains in

stin Badakhshan. On June 21 , Taliban fighters in Afghanistan as it steps up its summer offensive. targeted more urban areas with high-profile the southern Afghan province of Helmand The Taliban currently controls 39 districts in attacks, causing the count of civilian casualties to stopped vehicles and detained at least 25 Afghanistan and contests another 43. Districts spike to high levels.people. Later, 18 women and children were under Taliban command are being administered

threleased by the Taliban. On June 30 , Taliban by the group, or the group controls the district

The Taliban are making steady battlefield gains attacked a bus carrying police cadets outside the centre. Usually, the Taliban dominates all of the against Afghan security forces and its newly capital city Kabul, killing at least 30 people and areas of a district except the administrative centre elected leader, Mullah Haibatullah Akhundzada injuring 50 others. in contested districts. While Afghan forces has reasserted that there will be no return to generally remain in control of major population peace talks. Akhundzada took over after the The kidnappings in Helmand province follow a centres and key lines of communication, the group's previous leader, Mullah Mansoor, was series of similar incidents in other parts of the Taliban and extremist groups have waged major killed in a US drone strike last month.country, underlining the precarious security on attacks in Nangarhar, Herat, Kunduz, and other

Afghanistan's main highways, which are vital northern provinces. The Taliban has increasingly

Taliban intensifies its attacks in Kabul and other parts of the country

13

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rofessionals, students and government The GMOA and medical students in the country Pemployees in Sri Lanka, continued their have also been protesting against the students agitation against various government policies in who have passed the MBBS degree from the June. Members belonging to the Campaign for South Asian Institute of Technology and Medicine Free and Fair Elections (CaFFE), who have (SAITM), being granted provisional registration to petitioned Sri Lanka's Court of Appeal seeking practice as doctors in Sri Lanka. SAITM is the the removal of the Central Bank Governor from country's first private medical college, whose

rd medical degree, as per GMOA, did not meet the office, protested on June 23 , over alleged prescribed standards as said by the Sri Lanka insider dealing and rigging of bond auctions. The Medical Council (SLMC). Society of IT Professionals (SITP) joined hands

with the Government Medical Officers' Lankans with an influx of Indian job seekers to Sri Sri Lanka's opposition has criticised the proposed Association (GMOA) to conduct a signature Lanka. In order to avoid the situation from getting trade deal with India as an attempt to globalise campaign opposing the proposed Economic and out of control and gain the support of the the country's economy and raised concerns of an Technological Cooperation Agreement (ETCA) opposing parties, the government must uneven playing field faced by Sri Lankan business with India. As per the Indian and Sri Lankan encourage technical experts to play a more active in India. According to the opposing parties, there governments, the ETCA agreement seeks to role in educating the public, address concerns of is a surplus of IT graduates in Sri Lanka and their boost cooperation between India and Sri Lanka the private sector, and provide relevant future would be hampered, if the ETCA was in technical areas, scientific expertise and information in a timely manner in regards to signed and Indian job seekers entered the Sri research amongst institutions. It would also d e v e l o p m e n t o f E T C A . L a r g e s c a l e Lankan job market, working for lower salaries. improve standards of goods and services that demonstrations and protests by these educated, The ETCA has become a political issue for the Sri are able to compete on the global market and working professionals is likely in the near future, Lankan government with opposition and improve opportunities for manpower training especially if they consider the ETCA harming their professional groups protesting against it, claiming and human resource development.job prospects. Such protests can have a that it would deny job opportunities for Sri detrimental effect on the country's economy.

Continued agitation by businessmen, educated professionals and

students against various government policies

14

Sri Lanka


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suicide bomber killed at least 14 people in Malaysia to work as guards, drivers, construction Aan attack on a minibus carrying Nepalese workers or domestic staff, sending home thsecurity guards in Kabul on June 20 . Following remittances which make up nearly 30 percent of

the attack, Nepal banned its nationals from the country's annual gross domestic product. working in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and Syria. Many however, face a labour abuses such as a lack The decision came after a parliamentary panel of freedom of movement, long working hours, ordered the government to crack down on unsafe working conditions and withholding of traffickers who send thousands of migrants each their salaries. However, the ban may not help and year to conflict-torn countries where they often may rather prompt human traffickers to transport face danger or exploitation. The attack on a bus more Nepali migrants through India, with which it carrying Nepali guards working at the Canadian shares an open border, and then onward to these embassy in Kabul had forced the government to countries. More than 10,000 Nepalis have lost withdraw issuing work permits for the four their lives while working on foreign soil. Most of nations in the interests of the safety of its them were youths who were given a clean bill of nationals. health before they left Nepal. The state needs to

equip the migrants with useful skills; and it has to Nepal is one of the economically weak countries tap the skills of the returnees. A culture and in the world. Political instability since a decade- environment conducive to entrepreneurship has long civil conflict ended in 2006 has discouraged to be developed so that people are more investment, stunted growth and curtailed job motivated to create business and employment creation, forcing hundreds of thousands of for others than to go abroad for a salary.Nepali nationals to migrate overseas in search of work. Most go to the Middle East, India and

Nepali nationals banned from working in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and

Libya after terrorist attack in Kabul kills 13 Nepalis

15

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The Maldives opposition announced a joint The jailing of former president Mohammed formation, Maldives United Opposition, in order Nasheed and other politically motivated trials to work against the government. A number of have made the incumbent government the political parties have joined the Maldives United subject of mounting international criticism. Opposition, which will strive to remove the International pressure was further fuelled after a government through legal and lawful means. UN panel ruled Nasheed's incarceration illegal. The party claimed that an interim arrangement Earlier this year, the European Parliament passed is required in Maldives to restore democracy a resolution condemning the human rights and ensure the forthcoming elections in the abuses of President Abdulla Yameen's island-nation are free and fair. The Maldives government, and calling for targeted sanctions to United Opposition also raised concerns over the be imposed on his officials and supporters in the proposed e-voting system for the next elections, business community. Nasheed was elected alleging that the system could be rigged. In president in the country's first multiparty polls in addition, the party accused the current 2008, ending 30 years of autocratic rule by government of having poor foreign policy which current President Abdulla Yameen Abdul has affected the relations between the Maldives Gayoom's half-brother. He resigned in 2012 amid and its neighbours. The Maldives United weeks of public protests over his arrest of the Opposition also raised concerns over the judge. Nasheed lost to Gayoom in a disputed number of Maldivians joining the terrorist IS presidential election in 2013, and is currently in group. UK where he was granted political asylum.

Maldives opposition creates coalition against government

16

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June Events & Incidents

stŸJune 1 - Maharashtra:

stŸJune 1 - Madhya Pradesh:

ndŸJune 2 - Bihar:

ndŸJune 2 - Bihar:

ndŸJune 2 - Jharkhand:

ndŸJune 2 - Maharashtra:

rdŸJune 3 - Jharkhand:

thŸJune 5 - Chhattisgarh:


thŸJune 9 - Bihar:

The police unearthed and neutralized five claymore mines buried at different places on Hedri-Jambia road in Etapalli tehsil of Gadchiroli district.

Police recovered Maoist posters with death warrants issued against the names of SFs and 'Police informers' in Balaghat district.

Maoist cadres attacked five employees of RamiyaConstructions, run by the husband of a former Bihar MLC.

Police arrested three Maoists, including state in-charge and recovered a cache of firearms from Patulka jungle under Barachatti police station area in Gaya district.

A joint security team of CRPF and District Police recovered two pressure cooker bombs, each weighing five kilograms, from a forest near Abun village in Panki in Palamu district.

Maoist shot dead a person in Mardmelinga village of Bhamragarh tehsil in Gadchiroli district.

A group of six-seven cadres set a vehicle on fire at a road construction site near Tirku village in Kharsawan police station area, around 70 kilometres from Jamshedpur in East Singhbhum district.

A village sarpanch was killed by suspected Maoist cadres in Kanker district.

Maoist cadres fired rockets and opened heavy gunfire at a camp of ITBP in Kondagaon district.

Aurangabad Police claimed to have averted a major tragedy in the district by recovering huge cache of explosives from Bhura hills under Deo Police Station of the district.


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thŸJune 9 - Odisha:

thŸJune 10 - Jharkhand:


thŸJune 13 - Andhra Pradesh:





thŸJune 15 – Odisha:

thŸJune 15 - Telangana:

thŸJune 17 - Andhra Pradesh:


thŸJune 19 - Bihar:

thŸJune 19 - Maharashtra:




Two hardcore Maoist cadres carrying rewards on their heads and six other armed activists surrendered before the Police in Malkangiri district. As many as five BDOs in Jharkhand received letters bearing Maoist letterhead, asking them to quit their jobs within 15 days or see their

respective office buildings getting blown up by dynamite. Suspected Maoist cadres torched at least 10 heavy vehicles engaged in a road construction project in McCluskieganj in Ranchi district.

A hard-core Maoist cadre, one among the seven Maoists and 20 under trials who had fled the Chaibasa jail in December 2014, was arrested from a construction site in Visakhapatnam district.

Three DRG personnel were injured in a fierce encounter with Maoists in the dense forests of Narayanpur district. At least 10 Maoist cadres were killed in an encounter with the Police in Narayanpur district. As many as 47 Maoists surrendered in Bastar district citing disappointment with the "hollow" ideology of the Maoist..

The driver of an ADM of Sukma district was allegedly killed by the Maoist cadres on the charges of being a 'police informer' in Sukma district.

Nine tractors and an excavator of a construction firm engaged in Pradhan Mantri Gram SadakYojana, road construction work, were set ablaze allegedly by the Maoist cadres in Kalahandi district.

Maoist 'state committee member' Gajjala Krishna Reddy (58) surrendered before IGP, South Zone, in Kurnool district. Maoist 'central committee' gave a call for celebration of the 50th anniversary of the Naxalbari armed uprising, centenary of the

Russian Revolution and the bicentenary of the birth of Karl Marx. A CRPF trooper was injured in an IED blast triggered by the Maoist cadres in Bijapur district.

A CRPF Commando was killed and his two other colleagues were injured in an IED blast carried out by the Maoist cadres in the forest area of Aurangabad district.

Three senior members of the Maoist were killed by the Police in Gadchiroli district. CRPF and West Singhbhum district police personnel unearthed a militant hideout and recovered a huge haul of weapons and explosives

belonging to the People's Liberation Front of India (PLFI) at Podangir in Porahat jungle in the district. Deputy Sarpanch of ChinnaKodepal village AnganpalliLachhaiya was shot dead by armed Maoists in Bijapur district. Three Maoists were today killed in a gun battle with security forces in Chhattisgarh's Sukma district.


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hough there has been a decline in Maoist attacks and increase in surrenders in the first quarter of the year, the situation in Jharkhand seems to be taking a Tturn. With increased attacks and concentration of more Maoists Jharkhand has seen a rise in Maoist incidents. The demand for additional battalions has been made to consolidate the operations going on in 13 focus areas, which includes places like Banalat (Gumla), Pesrar (Lohardaga), Parasnath (Giridih) and Balumath (Latehar).

Besides these attacks, there has been evidence for the National Investigation Agency (NIA) to believe that Maoists operating in Jharkhand have been supplied with sophisticated M-16 rifles. Official sources said that the sophisticated weapons are sourced from Nagaland and get transported to the armed Maoist, in Jharkhand by arm syndicates which are operational in Nagaland, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Jharkhand. The NIA along with the state security agencies are working on developing a strategy to stop the highly-sophisticated weaponry from reaching cadres of Maoists operating in various regions. The development has raised concerns within state and central intelligence agencies. American-made sophisticated weapon can seriously effect operations of the security forces posted in Jharkhand where they are fighting an ultra-left armed movement. The weaponry can provide a tactical edge to the Maoists making it a challenge to the counter insurgency movement.

Meanwhile, there have been an increase in the number of Maoists surrendering to the police. The Chhattisgarh Police announced the surrender of 56 Maoists from different parts of the Bastar region. With this, 182 suspected Maoists have surrendered since December 2015However, the Maoists continue to mount attacks in Chhattisgarh, the state worst affected by the insurgency. The Maoists attacked a camp of the Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) force in restive Bastar region of Chhattisgarh on June 9th, second such attempt within a span of a month. Though there were no casualties reported it is of concern that two attacks on security camps within a month are bound to cause some panic in the counter-insurgency setup of the government. Security heightened at CRPF camps increased following attack on similar setups.

At least 76 Maoist were killed and 665 arrested by security forces in the Left Wing Extremism-hit areas in the first four months of 2016. On the positive side, security forces have achieved greater success in tackling Left Wing Extremism in recent times and this year there has been 30 per cent decline in violence perpetrated by Maoists compared to the past. The central government has adopted a multiple approach strategy which includes security-related interventions, development measures and ensuring rights and entitlement of local communities which may have led to the decrease in violence and increased surrenders.

Naxal trends


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Afghanistan th

ŸJune 24

thŸJune 27

Pakistanth

Ÿ June 26

Indiand

ŸJune 22 -

thŸJune 25 -

thŸJune 27 -

Bangladeshth

June 5 - th

ŸJune 7 - th

ŸJune 12 - th

ŸJune 16 -

thŸJune 28 -

- Heavy fighting between Afghan forces and Islamic State jihadists killed dozens of people.The fighting began in the Kot area of the Rodat district in eastern Nangarhar province after a contingent of IS fighters attacked police check post

- At least 131 IS fighters were killed in an ongoing fighting with the Afghan security forces in Afghanistan's Nangarhar province

- Counter-terrorist police raided a building in the city of Lahore and arrested three men affiliated with the IS. As per the police, the arrested individuals were planning to attack government buildings.

Mumbai Police's twitter handle received a tweet inquiring which agency one should approach if one receives an email from an Indian-based account, asking how to join the Islamic State (IS).

Masked men raise IS flags in Kashmir, stones pelted at policemen at Srinagar.IS militants release 'kill list'to target 4000 people including 285 Indians.

Ÿ Wife of senior police officer killed; IS claims responsibility for the attack.IS claims responsibility for killing of Hindu priest in Bangladesh.

Security forces arrest over 5,000 in crackdown on extremists. The head priest and others at the Ramakrishna Mission in Bangladesh have received death threats by Islamist militant who claimed to be supporters

of the Islamic State group.High priest of Dharmarajik Buddhist Monastery at Dhaka's Basabo area received a death threat.

Islamic State South Asia Tracker – June 2016

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Analysis

Abu-Bakr-al Baghdadi. The plan was to approach promoting fidayeen attacks and seeking Maoist Five men from Hyderabad were held in early Maoists for arms and ammunition procurement help to establish themselves in the country all go

thmorning raids on June 29 by the National as well as arms training. However, the group failed out to show the attempts made by the jihadist Investigation Agency (NIA). The men were to establish any links with Maoists. outfit to establish some kind of base in the reported to be at an advanced stage of planning country. strikes on multiple targets in the city, including a temple, markets, malls and a police station. The Nearly 20 suspected members of IS Indian wing The government has initiated a series of steps to NIA has alleged stated that the men were have been arrested by various agencies, including check the spread of IS in India, including the members of an Islamic State(IS) cell, and that the NIA and the anti-terrorism squads (ATS) of launch of a counter-radicalisation and de-they were operating under the command of several states, in the last few months. radicalisation strategy. Though the IS has not Muhammad ShafiArmar, the head of a group of been able to attract many youths in India, its Indian jihadists based out of Raqqa in Syria.In The arrested suspected IS members have attempts are a concern for national security in the addition to the five men arrested, the NIA had revealed that they had received instructions from long run. The intelligence and security agencies also detained another six men for questioning. their IS handlers in Iraq and Syria on building a have been mandated to keep an eye on such

force of 'lone wolves' who could individually carry youth who could become possible recruits of the Meanwhile, as per media reports, an IS-inspired out fidayeen attacks in various parts of the terror organisation. nationwide module in India tried to contact country. It was planned that once an attack was Maoists for "seeking shelter" after carrying out carried out, the IS from Iraq and Syria would take "violent acts" that it was planning across the responsibility for it. country. This was revealed during the interrogation of youths connected to Junood-al- Increased arrests of individuals across the Khalifa-e-Hind, set up by Syria-based Shafi country in the past months, identifying Indian Armar, who has pledged allegiance to IS chief extremists fighting alongside IS in Syria, IS

Islamic State Report for India

21

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Islamic State

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ith the era of technology diffusing in our the crimes against women. A holistic solution is to Wlives like sugar in water, the women of be aware, alert and prepared in all forms, in all our times are on an interesting threshold. On the ways, for all situations.one side lies the plethora of opportunities that internet opens for us and on the other lies the over dependence on it and lesser dependence Well, to bring safety at our fingertips, legislative on our own selves. With the arrival of mobile measures are increasingly being sought to ensure technology and social media the scenario has the safety of women where technology is become even more interesting. Information is facilitating the process. The issues of safety of right at our fingers and the women are making women and other vulnerable sections of society full use of it. Gone are the days when a damsel in are engaging the attention of the police and distress would wait for her prince charming to agencies concerned in and outside the arrive and save her, now a tap on the safety app government. It is being increasingly felt, in the damsel's phone would bring the entire especially, post the “Nirbhaya” rape case of 2012,

The utilization of technology for supporting police department to her rescue. But is this that there is a need for innovative ideas to tackle women's security is important. Today quick fix a real solution to our woes? Are the these issues and that effective use of technology applications would not assume a fundamental many safety apps in our phones actually going to can go a long way in ensuring safety. A number of role in security, but rather its consistent use and be of any importance to us during the dark safety applications have entered Indian markets. standard upgrade according to the need and times? Or the only source of true safety lies in Some of them have survived while others have mindfulness about security will help to give our own presence of mind and training of grown redundant over time. With technological technological solutions. Our team at MitKat bodies? So, the question is “is technology a development, newer applications keep entering conducted a research in which we did a survey of solution for women's safety?”. No, it's only a part the market, claiming to have features better than women safety applications available in the of the solution. This rapid advancement in the previous ones.market, during which we came across various technology is complemented with increase in

Safety at your fingertips

Can technology be a solution for women's safety?

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She is a student of International Studies pursuing her Masters degree from Christ University, Bangalore. She was also an intern with MitKat Advisory Services.

- Mumal Rathore

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ŸThen there are applications with special criteria which are important to be considered the response timefeatures of video/audio record, scream while judging/downloading an application in ŸThese applications consume too much of alert/alarm clicking crime photos, recognise terms of its reliability and availability. In the batteryshouting and crying as distress and emergency wake of rising crime against women, many ŸMost of the applications available in the market directorystartups have taken the initiative to introduce do not work without the Internet or mobile

ŸA few of them like EYE WATCH, even work products in the form of applications, which will network. This is exactly where the government without Internetensure safety for women. VithU, Raksha, BSafe, needs to step in and try and mitigate cost and

ŸThere are apps which mark safe/ unsafe zones, Pukar, SafetyPin are some examples. infrastructure issues for the corporations signals women safety securedFor improving women's safety in India we need working in this direction

ŸThere are smart devices concealed in the form to focus on four things:of bracelets, watches, key chains, and pendants A mechanism to deter or avoid any etc which alert the emergency contacts in the danger to them Study of the currently available solutions face of threat A mechanism to help them defend revealed that somehow smartphone safety apps

themselves are not considered the best solution by the A mechanism to reach out for help masses. There is a need to think the problem A mechanism to help identify and through and also keeping in mind the

ŸMany special devices are primarily western and incarcerate the predators infrastructure present in India. We are looking to most of them have not reached India yet work on a new cutting edge technology that could

ŸAnother issue is the high cost of manufacturing potentially solve the shortcomings in the current these devicesŸThere are applications like EYE WATCH, B Safe, existing solution. Hence, there is a need to

ŸTo make applications efficient, they would VithU which provide features like SOS understand how to design the solution so that it require GPRS services which might not be activation, and location sharing will have the maximum impact. The efficiency of feasibleŸApplications like Nirbhaya notify the police technology in guaranteeing women's safety is

ŸApplications get hanged, which lowers down and have group tracking questionable. As of now, no large scale success

Priority 1:

Priority 2:

Priority 3:Priority 4:

Argument

What are the problems with such devices/ applications?

What do we have? / what's available?

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has been produced by them to show us that they measures have an exclusive target of urban elite that they are being watched, will back off. have proven to be successful in averting danger. women who can afford such expensive devices

and will have the knowledge of its use. The reach The problem with apps is that they tend to be of technology is extremely narrow in order to At most, technology can only be a facilitator to clumsy. The woman has to open her phone, make women safer. The rural and the small town ensure the safety of women. It cannot be a fool-unlock it, open the app and then press a button. women are completely alienated from it. proof solution as a woman under attack may not Also, most of the times, the perpetrators usually Adequate training should be given to women on be able to use it. If she has been restrained by her go for the phone first. The need is to develop how to make the maximum use of technology for assaulters, her nails and teeth are the first independent devices like safety bands, rings, key their safety. These devices must come with geo- weapons. Devices, based on technology, can rings etc that can be carried around in disguise trackers and a direct police helpline, specifically mainly act as a deterrent. The use of technology and used faster, and which will allow the women set up for this and linked to a hospital. has to be supplemented by basic self-defenceand to send emergency messages with their location safety awareness training, which will give the in times of distress. In addition, there is a need for a government-run victim a buffer time to use the device in case of a

website, listing all criminals with a record. It surprise attack. In addition, work places and It is important to note that the enlisted makes it easy to identify the perpetrators and also police stations must be made women friendly so emergency contact may not be in a position to helps in certain ways, by deterring such behaviour that women are free to approach the law help the victim at the time of the attack. Most in others. Public shaming is a really powerful tool. enforcement in case of harassment and abuse. attacks happen to unsuspecting victims and the A large majority of the incidents like eve-teasing, There is a need to not just look for smart gadgets attacker has the advantage of a surprise, barring following someone, lewd talk, and inappropriate and devices that come handy for women but the victim a chance to even use the device. For touching are done by people who are not something out-of-the box solutions and technology to be truly helpful in ensuring hardened criminals but uneducated/less- innovative applications that can be embedded in women's safety, it needs to be available to all. It educated, sex-starved men who know it is highly the mobile phones of the person in trouble.should be subsidized and made compulsory in unlikely that there will be any repercussions. high school/college. These technology However, the same individuals, once made aware

Conclusion

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MONTHLY RISK FORECAST - MitKat · THE MONTH THAT WAS } Jat agitation fails to generate mass support in Haryana }Increase in militant attacks against security forces in Jammu & Kashmir}India's