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7/24/2019 Mongolian Economic Update 2015
1/72
THE WORLD BANK GROUP IN MONGOLIA
2015 11
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, . (
)- (
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(http://www.worldbank.org.mn).
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................................................................................................................................................... 1
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, . .................... 8 , . ............................... 12
. ............ 15
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2015 2 11 2016
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2015-16
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,
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1: , ................................................ 13
2. ......................................................... 19 3. 2016 ...................... 29
4.
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1. 3 . ............................................................ 8
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9. ... . ............................. 11
10. ............. 1211. .
.................................................................................................................................................................... 12
12. 9 4.9
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13. . ............ 13
14. 2015 ,
. ............................................................................... 14
15. . .......... 14
16. 16 . .................................................. 17
17. . ......................................................................................................................................................... 17
18.
. ......................................................................................................................................................... 18
19. 2012 . ............................ 19
20. , M2
. ....................................................................................................................... 22
21.
. .................................................................................................................. 22
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22.
. ......................................................................................................................................................... 23
23.
................................................................................................................................... 23
24. 2013-14
. ....................................................................................................................................................... 24
25. ,
2015 ........................................................................ 24
26.
. .......................................................................................................... 25
27. 2014
. ......................................................................................................................................................... 25
28.
. ............................................................................................................. 26
29. .
.................................................................................................................................................................... 26
30. , .
.................................................................................................................................................................... 26
31. ................. 26
32. 2015 . .... 27
33. , . ............. 27
34. ,
. ............................................................................................................................................... 28
35. 8
....................................................................................................... 28
36. 2015 ................................. 29
37. . .......... 29
38. 2 () ........................................................................... 30
39. ............................................................................................................................ 30
40. 2014 ................................................... 31
41. 2015
. ........................................................................................................................................................ 31
42. ,
.......................................................................................................... 31
43. 2013 ............... 31
44. . ......................................... 32
45. .... 32
46. ,
. ............................................................................................... 33
47. ... 2015 ..................................................... 33
48. 2012
. ......................................................................................................................................................... 33
49. 2014 . ................................................. 33
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50.
. ..................................................... 34
51. 1 .
. ................................................................................................................................................ 34
52. 2015
. ............................................................................................................................................. 35
53. 5-8 9 . .................... 35
54. 2014 2 .................................... 36
55.
. ......................................................................................................................................... 36
56. .............................................. 36
57. ... . ........................................................................ 36
58. 2013
............................................................................................................................................. 38
59.
. ......................................................................................................................................................... 38
60. . ............................................................. 38
61. NEER REER 2014 . ............................................ 38
62.
. .................................................................................................................................... 41
63. . ... 41
64. .................... 42
65. . ......... 42
66. 88 ......................................................... 43
67. 82 ................................... 43
68. . ............................................................................. 44
69.
. ........................................................................................................................................ 44
70. : 2010 14 ....................................................... 52
71. : 2012 - 14 ................................................................ 53
72. : 2010 -14 .................................................... 53
73. : 2010 - 14 .................................................................................................. 53
74. , : 2010 - 14 ....................... 53
75. ,
2010- 2013 , (2010 )................................ 56
76. 5 . 57
77. :
, .............................. 59
1. ( ): 2015 6 ... 20
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2. ( ): 2015 6
.................................................................................................................................................... 20
3. 2010 - 14 .................................................................................................. 52
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, ,
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2015 3 .
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900 560
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7/24/2019 Mongolian Economic Update 2015
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,
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. 2015
2014 700
8 386 .
1.7 8
2.8 . 2014 350
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7/24/2019 Mongolian Economic Update 2015
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.
,
2015-16 .
, 2016
. 2-3 20
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2015 100 , 2016
2016 400 .
2015-16
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2014 - 58 . - 40
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7/24/2019 Mongolian Economic Update 2015
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2017
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, 1.06-1.44 .
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7/24/2019 Mongolian Economic Update 2015
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(quasi-fiscal) ,
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, .
2012
2013 .
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7/24/2019 Mongolian Economic Update 2015
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.
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7/24/2019 Mongolian Economic Update 2015
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, .
3 6 7.5
. , 2
2.1 4.3 . ,
16.5 2014 24.4
. , 1 1.5
2 1.2 . , 2014
2.9 6 0.2 . (1)
. 363 .
27 .
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- (%)
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1/3, - 9 . 2015
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Overall GDP
Non-mining
Mining
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Q1-11
Q2-11
Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
Q2-14
Q3-14
Q4-14
Q1-15
Q2-15
Final consumption Gross capital formation
Net exports GDP growth (%)
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24.9 56.2
. 2015
2 .
2.4
. 14.9
15.7 . (3) ,
22 .
, 3 .
3 33 .
3 22
32 . 7-9 25
3 , - . ,
.
3.
.
4. ,
, 3 .
,
(%)
Y/Y monthly production growth of key commodities and mining
industrial production (3 month rolling sum, %)
:, -
, ,
. , 6 0.2 .
6 ,
9.4 . , .
11.1 2 1.4
. ,
7.6 . 4
. 1.3
,
. (5)
, .
2 1 3
10 . 7-9
1 . (6) 24
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (Jan-
Sep)
Mining production Coal
Crude Oil Copper concentrates
Gold
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Coal
Crude oil
Copper concentrates
Mining industrial production
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. 7- 9 ,
,
.
,
.
,
.
9
27.7 .
9
66 83
.
, 18
.
20 - 0.4
.
5. , .
6. , 3 .
, , (3
, y/y, %)
:, -
, .2011-12
-
2 .
. 2014
.
, 2014
. 2015 ,
. 43
. . 2014
30.6 2015
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Q1-11
Q2-11
Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
Q2-14
Q3-14
Q4-14
Q1-15
Q2-15
Agriculture Other servicesManufacturing ConstructionWholesale & retail trade Electricity, comm. & residualTransportation Non-mining GDP growth (%)
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
Manufacturing Electricity
7. , .
, (%p)
: , , -
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
6070
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Exports Imports
Domestic demand Real GDP growth (%)
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6.1 .
. ( 7)
-
. 2010
-
2013 .
2011-12 65 - 40
. - 2013 - 17
, 2014 - 4 . ( 8) 2
,
. 2011 - 10
2014 - 15
. (9) 2015
,
.
8. 2014 ... 9. ... . - (%p) , (-
)
:, -
. 2014 7.3
2.3 .
4.2 .
2014 7.5 3.8
. ( 10) 2011-12
2 2013 . 2014
.
,
2- 3- . (11)
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Q
2-11
Q
3-11
Q
4-11
Q
1-12
Q
2-12
Q
3-12
Q
4-12
Q
1-13
Q
2-13
Q
3-13
Q
4-13
Q
1-14
Q
2-14
Q
3-14
Q
4-14
Q
1-15
Q
2-15
Growth contribution of investment (%p): LHS
Y/Y growth of fixed investment(%): RHS
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Government Budget DBM FDI Others
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10. .
11. .
(%p)
Real average household income growth (y/y, %)
:, -
,
.
2014 7 . 2014 7 14.9
1 9.8 () 8 6.6
. 11.4
9 4.9 .
, 9 6.1 .
. 8
2.3 9
1.3 . 2015
.
8 6.2 , 9 10.5 .
9 9 11.8 . 9
, , ,
12.3 7 10.3 . 7 , ,
4.2 19 , 8 23.5 .
.
2015
.
. / , .
.
. 2016
.
,
. .
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Q1-11
Q2-11
Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
Q2-14
Q3-14
Q4-14
Q1-15
Q2-15
Government Consumption (%p)
Private consumption (%p)
Final Consumption growth (y/y, %)
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2010.01
2010.02
2010.03
2010.04
2011.01
2011.02
2011.03
2011.04
2012.01
2012.02
2012.03
2012.04
2013.01
2013.02
2013.03
2013.04
2014.01
2014.02
2014.03
2014.04
2015.01
2015.02
Real HH Monetary Income (yoy, %): UB
Real HH Monetary Income (yoy, %): National
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12. 9 4.9 .
13. .
( %): 8
( %):
: - , -
1: ,
() ()-
2015 .
.
()- . 2010
, ,
.
-
. 2014 ,
, ,
. , 8
22 .
2014 2015
2015 13 .
2 3 8 1.5 () .
( 14)
.
.
( )-
. - - ,
2013
. 2013 8
. 2013 2014
.
70
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Energy and fuelsMeat, milk and cheesebread, flour and cerealsOther foodCore inflation exc all food and energy
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
Headline inflation Food inflation
Non-Food inflation
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2014
. ,
2015
. ( 15)
14. 2015 ,
.
15.
.
( %, 3
)
:, ,
( %, 3 )
:
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Total MiningManufacturing Electricity
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
41061
41122
41183
41244
41306
41365
41426
41487
41548
41609
41671
41730
41791
41852
41913
41974
42036
42095
42156
42217
core inflation (y/y, %)
Import price inflation (y/y, %)
Manufacturing price inflation (y/y, %)
7/24/2019 Mongolian Economic Update 2015
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.
. 2 -
. ( ) 1 ,
2
.
2015-18 - ,
.
2015 - 5 , 2018 - 2
.
.
- 40 2015
- 58.3 2018 -
40 .
2015 1
. - 5
( - 4.9 ) -
.
2015 7.4 , 34
. 794
. , .
.
1 - 2015
. (
) 100
- . 6.3
6.7
2015
.
. 2 -
,
.
.
,
,
, , ,
, .
7/24/2019 Mongolian Economic Update 2015
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- . -
,
-
.
. -
.
.
. 5
500 . .
.
.
6
. 6 2015 -
. -
. - 2015 3 18- 95
.:
, 2018 ;
;
- ;
,
;
, .
.
. 9 16 .
11 . ( 16)
36 , 17.6
. , 10.4
. , 9 .
36 .
6.1
1 .
. 6 ,
, ,
7/24/2019 Mongolian Economic Update 2015
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.
. : , , ,
, ,
. 1-9
78 . 45
, , 80 .
,
. (17)
.
.
.
. , ,
, .
, .
16. 16 .
17. .
( ): Jan-
Aug
( ):
Jan-Aug
: , ,
2015 2 11 2016 .
2015 2 11 - .
900 2
560 , 340 .
120 ,
480 .
350 .
. (
) .
.
-50
-40
-30
-20-10
0
10
20
Total
revenues
PIT CIT VAT Excise
taxes
Customs
duties
Royalty Non-tax
revenues
0
10
20
30
4050
60
70
80
90
100
Goods &
Services
Wages Social
insurance
Transfers On-budget
investment
DBM's
budget
projects
7/24/2019 Mongolian Economic Update 2015
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61
.
2
.
2016 -
4 .
6989 , 15
. 8.4 ,
48 .
2016 2015 7.3
8 7.9 .
5 . 2016
2015 1530 32 2,016 .
450 . - 4.1
901 -
3.3 .
2016
.
.
. ,
19.5 2015 13.7 42
.
.
.
, 2016
171 .
. 2011
.
2013
.
.
368
2015
62 .
2
.
. 2012-14
17 . ( 18)
.
18. .
: vs. (- ):
2012-15
: , ,
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
2012 2013 2014 2015f
Budget Actual
7/24/2019 Mongolian Economic Update 2015
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.
() 8 0.7
. - 794
, 715 . - -
.
. ( 2- ). 8 - 794
248 . -
. 440
. -
1487 1 . 2015
- 794 452
. 600 100
.
, -
. - 2013-14
- 3.6
2015 - 3
. -
-
. -
3
2.7 . 2014 -
23 .
,
.
2.
2015 6 30- .
.
1.
2015 6 4,374
. 2,244 (51.3 )
. 2,219 ,
, .
19. 2012 .
: 2011-14
: , ,
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
2011 2012 2013 2014
On-budget spending (% to GDP)
DBM commercial (% to GDP)
DBM non-commercial (% to GDP)
DBM share to public spending (%)
DBM-related external debt (% to GDP)
7/24/2019 Mongolian Economic Update 2015
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.
. , ,
, ,
, ,
. .
2015 .
. ,
.
.
, , , ,
.
.
,
623 10 ,
, (
888 ).
1,103 ,
( , ,
, , , ).
200 . 2013 9
. 175
.
1. ( ): 2015 6
1. : 2,244
2,244
2. : 2,219
562
10 (888 , ) 623
, 944
3. 4,374
2.
. ( 2) 2015 6 - 92
.
4 (-1.5 ., 2012 12 , 500 .
,2012 3 , 30 ,
2013 12 ). 904
.
2. ( ): 2015 6
1. 1,478
( ): 2012 3 1,149
7/24/2019 Mongolian Economic Update 2015
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, 2014 ( ): 2013 12 379
2. 3,461
: 2012 12 2,557
904
( ): 2014 4 23.8
Syndicated loans ( ): 2014 12 583
China Development Bank ( ): Aug 2014present 261
Vnesheconombank ( ): June 2015 36.5
3. 387
4. 5,376
: PWC Audit LLC, , 2015 6
(http://www.dbm.mn/----2015------/)
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Mongolian Economic Update 2015
30/72
.
, 2
2015 . 150 ,
M2 2014 40
. ,
M2 2014 3 . 1 21.4
9 4.9 .
, .
( ,
) 2015
. ( 20)
. (21)
20. ,
M2 .
21.
.
M2 , (%p): 2010-2015 M2 , (%p): 2010-2015
:, -
2 . 2012 566
2013 4.5
. 2013
12 3.5
- 18 .
2013 46 ,
14 . 2
. : (i) ; (ii)
. 1 900
2013 .
.
.
4.3 9 4.1
. (22) 2014 (quantitative easing
programs) . 900
-50%
-25%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Non-bank private sector Govt & Public Sector
Net foreign assets Net domestic credit (y/y, %)
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Jan-09
Jun-09
Nov-09
Apr-10
Sep-10
Feb-11
Jul-11
Dec-11
May-12
Oct-12
Mar-13
Aug-13
Jan-14
Jun-14
Nov-14
Apr-15
Sep-15
Foreign currency deposits MNT deposits
Currency outside banks M2 growth (%, y/y)
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2014 .
2014 2015
.
2014 700 9
376 . 2015
232 2016
.
9 2.4 1.7
. 1.6
. 350
, .
, ,
9 3
22 . (23)
22.
.
23.
( ) (
)
:, -
,
.
.
2012 . 2012 1.5
. 4
. . .
2015 .
(
)- . 2013-14 4
,
. 40
. 2
. 2012 12 1.5
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0
1
2
3
4
5
BoM claims on government
BoM claims on companies
BoM claims on non-bank FIsBoM claims on banks
% share of BoM credit to total domestic credit: RHS
-50%
0%
50%
100%
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Credit to Corporate Sector
BoM deposit to banks
BoM holdings of mortgage loans
Housing mortgage credit to banks
Credit to PSP
Reserve money growth(y/y, %): RHS
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.
.
, .
2013 (
).
2013 50 . (
24)
2015 . 2014
2015 .
: (i)
; (ii) ; (iii)
. 7 9
. ( 25)
24. 2013-14 .
25. , 2015 .
Composition of monetary base (in trillion MNT): 2009-2015 Reserve money y/y growth composition (%p): 2009-2015
Source:BoM, WB staff estimates
.
9 18
9 4.3 1- .
2013 2014 2014 60
. 1.5 2
1 2013
90
.
-4
-2
1
3
5
7
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Net cla ims on non-govt entities Net cl aims on govt
NFA Monetary base
-200%
-150%
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
BoM claims on non-g ovt sec tors N et c la im s on govt
NFA Reserve money y/y growth (%)
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2012 2 2013
21 . ( 26)
.
2014
, .
2015
. (27)
26. .
27. 2014 .
( ): 2009-15 - (%): 2009-15
:, -
. 2013-14
,
. 2014
. , 3
. 33
.
.
5 .
.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Jan-09
Jun-09
Nov-09
Apr-10
Sep-10
Feb-11
Jul-11
Dec-11
May-12
Oct-12
Mar-13
Aug-13
Jan-14
Jun-14
Nov-14
Apr-15
Sep-15
trillionMNT
Bank loans to the private sector: LHS
BoM funding in % to total funding sources of banks: RHS
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Jan-09
Jun-09
Nov-09
Apr-10
Sep-10
Feb-11
Jul-11
Dec-11
May-12
Oct-12
Mar-13
Aug-13
Jan-14
Jun-14
Nov-14
Apr-15
Sep-15
Securitized mortgages: LHS
Bank loans: LHS
BoM credit to banks: LHS
Loan growth (incl. securitized mortgages): RHS
(trillion
MNT)
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28. .
29. .
, (%p) , (%p)
:, -
, 125
. ,
2012 100 2014 135
.
, ,
,
.
.
9
19.1 12 .
2014 . 2015
. 1
14-16 .
30. , .
31. .
,
(%)
( ):
2010-2015
:, -
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Deposits External borrowing Government deposits BoM funding
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
Local currency
Foreign currency
Total private bank deposit growth (%)
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
75%
90%
105%
120%
135%
150%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Bank loan growth (y/y, %): LHS
Bank deposit growth (y/y, %): LHS
Loan to deposit ratio (%): RHS
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Excess reserves excl. CBB
Claims on government
Central Bank bills
Excess reserve to deposit ratio (%): RHS
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. 2014
2014 7 2015 2
2 10.5 13 .
6 10.9 9 13.7
. 1 4 10
16 . 4
- 9 14.4
5 .
. 2014 12.2
9 13.1 .
,
, . 2015
.
2014 18-19 8
20.1 .
. : (i) ; (ii)
.
32. 2015 .
33. , .
(%) , (, %)
:
., ,
. , 3 8.12 .
4.4 14.1 . ,
,
. , ,
. ,
.
. 2
3 23.3 2.7 .
.
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Overnight loans BoM policy rate
Interbank deposit rate 12 week T-bills
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Interest spread (lending - deposit rate, bps): RHS
BoM policy rate
Avg bank lending rate
Avg bank deposit rate
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,
. ( 34)
8 30
. 9
27 9 16.7 .
8 2
. 9
2,481 75
. 1,746
90 . ( 35)
-
. - 8
30 10 20
.
, .
.
34. , .
35. 8 .
, (y/y, %) Outstanding mortgage loans (trillion MNT)
:
. 9
34 830 . (36)
2015 .
2014 5 9 7 . ( 37)
3.1 5.1
. .
2014 317 9 829
2 .
2014 2.2 9 7.1 .
-40%
-20%
0%
20%40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
Agriculture Mining and quarrying
Manufacturing Wholesale and retail
Construction Mortgage loans
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Housing mortgage program (tn MNT): LHS
Commercial mortgages (tn MNT): LHS
Weighted avg mortgage lending rates(%): RHS
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36. 2015
37. .
( ): 2009-15
(%)
* .
: , , -
. 2014 7-8
. : (i)
(120 ); (ii)
1 . 4
16 50 .
2016 , 2018 .
3. 2016
10 1 2016
- . :
a.
2016 7 , 2017-18 5-7
,
,
b.
,
.
,
, .
c. ,
,
.
,
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Size of NPLs (bi ll ions MNT) Size of past-due loans (bil lions MNT)
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
NPLs/outstanding loans(%)
Past-due loans/Outstanding Loans(%)
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d.
. ,
,
. -
2016 .
38. 2 () 39.
( ) , (
)
:,
:, ,
.
.2011-2013
- 25
. ,
, 2014 .
14.4 2014
- 25 11.7 . ( 40)
2015 . 9 486
. 1.4 . .
. 9 318.3
957 . .
610 . 1,214 . .
.
964 . , 691 .
. (41)
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4
2011 2012 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
NFA NDA M2
-25
-15-5
5
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
85
Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4
2011 2012 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Broad money growth (m2) Reserve moneyLoans incl MBS Loans
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40. 2014 .
41. 2015 .
, - : 2008-2014 , ( ., 3 )
: , , -
.
.
.
,
. 2013 40
, ,
.
42. ,
43. 2013
.
, , 2 , (%): 3
,
: , , -
.
2014 17.6
9 29.4 .
2015 . ,
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f
Current Transfers
Income Balance
Services Balance
Trade Balance
Real GDP Growth (%)-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300 Trade balance
Income balance
Services Balance
Current account balance
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
C ur rent A ccount balance (mn $ ) Net FDI inflows (mn $)
M2 growth(y/y, %)
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
Mar-1
1
Jun-1
1
Sep-1
1
Dec-1
1
Mar-1
2
Jun-1
2
Sep-1
2
Dec-1
2
Mar-1
3
Jun-1
3
Sep-1
3
Dec-1
3
Mar-1
4
Jun-1
4
Sep-1
4
Dec-1
4
Mar-1
5
Jun-1
5
Sep-1
5
CA Balance (millions of US$)
Trade Balance (millions of US$)
Nominal Exchange Rate (MNT/USD): Right Axis
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35 9 12 .
35 8 9
. 2
.
44.
. 45.
., (%): 3 (%): 3
:, , , -
,
, .
9 32
22.1 , 12.2 .
34.5 . 9
96 . 9
1.9 . 9 36.7
. 99 .
9 41.4 .
16 19 .
2 ,
.
.
-50-40-30-20-10
0102030405060
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Exports (y/y, %)
Imports (y/y, %)
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Apr-10
Aug-10
Dec-10
Apr-11
Aug-11
Dec-11
Apr-12
Aug-12
Dec-12
Apr-13
Aug-13
Dec-13
Apr-14
Aug-14
Dec-14
Apr-15
Aug-15
% change in terms of trade (y/y)
Export price index (y/y, %)
Import price index (y/y, %)
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46. , .
47. ... 2015 .
(%): 3
(%): 3
:- , , -
.-
2012 . ,
2014 29.5 1-9
25.6 . 2014
, ,
.
17.5 17 9 . 40
, 35.5 .
48. 2012 .
49. 2014 .
Imports of durable goods and mineral products (y/y % change, 3
month rolling sum)
Imports of consumption goods and mineral products (y/y %
change, 3 month rolling sum)
:- , , -
.
. 2012 4.4 . 2014 382
. 2013 .
. 2015 9 156.5 .
-60%
-30%
0%
30%
60%
90%
120%
150%
180%210%
240%
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Copper concentrate exports
Coal exports
Oil exports
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%100%
120%
140%
160%
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Copper concentrates Coal Crude oil
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Food product
Consumption goods
Mineral product
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526.4 . . (50) 227
. 191 .
- .
.
2012 .
2014 2 940 . .
462 . (162 .
, 300 . ).
2014 482 .
. 2015 . 5 6
660 .
. 500 .
, 9.375 5 .
5 . 1 (161 .) 6 7.5
. 630 . 9 .
1.3 . . ( 51)
50. .
51. 1 . .
: . ( .)
: , -
2015 .
9 743 .
172 . . 4 320 . ,
5-8 445 . .
.
9 298 .
300 . .
9 . 4 1,257
. 8 1,728 . .
.
(1.5)
(1.0)
(0.5)
0.0
0.5
1.0(1.0)
(0.5)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
Net debt financing needs (CA deficit - FDI inflows): LHS
Net FDI inflows: LHS
Current acccount balance (in reversed values): RHS
(0.5)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net portfolio investment + loans Central bank's net debt-financing
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300 .
300 . 9 1,412
. . 3
. (53).
52. 2015 . 53. 5-8 9 .
, ( .):3
( .)
: , -
. 2014 2015
2015 6
- 180 .
- 162 . ( 54)
- 70
12 .
2014 - 41 , 2014 6 36 6
46.5 . 2014
, 5
. ,
2014 6 - 8.5 6 - 15.5
. 6 -
29.5 6 30.4 (
).
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4(0.4)
(0.2)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
Overall BoP Balance
Financial and Capital Account
CA deficit (values in reverse order): RHS
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
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54. 2014 2
55. .
, (-
)
, ( .)
: , -
4.
.
( )-- 3 2 . 2011 24.1 2014 58 . ( , , ) 2011 - 32.7 2014 76.6 .
, . 2011 - 20 (5 .) 2014 42.7 (1.9 .)- . (57) ( -1.5 .,
580 ., -30 , -460 .). 122 . . - 4 14 . . 2012 0.8 2014 2.5 . _ 2014 - 55 2011 23 .
. 2 2012 90 .
2012 . ( ) 2011 2014 - 24 . - 18 . (56) 1/3- .
56.
57. ... .
(- ) , (- )
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2010.Q4
2011.Q1
2011.Q2
2011.Q3
2011.Q4
2012.Q1
2012.Q2
2012.Q3
2012.Q4
2013.Q1
2013.Q2
2013.Q3
2013.Q4
2014.Q1
2014.Q2
2014.Q3
2014.Q4
2015.Q1
2015.Q2
Private sector debt
BoM foreign debt
Government and government guaranteed debt
External debt excl. inter-company lending
(2.0)
(1.0)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Q 1 Q 2 Q3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Official reserves (+ means drawdown)Others (incl. errors & omissions)FDI & equity investmentDebt-financing
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: , , -
: -
.
2013
. 2013 .
2013 8
337 . , 8
. , ,
. 2013 3 2015 3
. 1410 1984 , 40
.
, 2013-14 3
. .
.
500 .
4, 5 7
1862 . 6
. . 6
, . 6
7 . 7 1985 .
2000 7
1,900-2,000 . ( 60)
9 5.5 , 6-10 1.4 .
. ,
10 55 ,
11.4 . 7
.
, 10
21.8 8.3 . (59)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015f
Govt external debt Govt external guaranteesBoM's foreign debt Govt domestic debtSOE debt
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Foreign central bank
Commercial external guarantees
Commercial external debt
Multilateral and Bilateral debt
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2014 .
3 2014
. NEER REER 4
. (61)
58. 2013
59. .
(USD/MNT): June 2012-Oct 2015 , (2014
Dec=100)
:,
60. . 61. NEER REER 2014 .
, (
.)
NEER and REER (Dec 2012 =100): Jan 2011-Aug 2015
:, -
3 (NEER) .
(REER)
.NEER REER
.
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
2100
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130 Indonesia Chile
Malaysia Myanmar
Mongolia China
South africa Euro
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800
1,900
2,000
2,100
(100)
(50)
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
M
iilionsofUSD
The BoM's net sales of f or eig n exchange: L HS USD/MNT : RHS
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
Nominal exchange rate (MNT/USD)
NEER
REER
Depreciation
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2015-16 ,
2015 3.3 2.3
. , 3
.
2015 , 2 2
. , , -
, 2
. ,
.
, .
, .
,
.
- 14
.
20 - 0.4 .
2015
2016 , .
.
, 10 -
1 .
, ,
2016
0.8 .
,
2016-17 ,
. , -
,
2018 . . 2016 ,
2 ,
, .
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.
, 2015-16
. ,
2016 . 2-3
20 ,
.
, 2016
2015-16
.
2015 2015 100
, 2016 2016 400
. 2015-16
- 5
.
2014 - 11
2015 - 8-9 , 2016 - 6-7
. 2015 , 600
2 300-400
.
- 3 , - 1-1.5 .
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. 2017
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1,080 .
, .
.
4 1,267 . 8
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2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f
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40%
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70%
80%
90%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Baseline 10% FX rate shock
20% FX rate shock
Note: The fx rate shock means a 20% further depreciation in
2016 against the US$ compared with the baselince projecton.
7/24/2019 Mongolian Economic Update 2015
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.
.
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.
.
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2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Copper ($/ton): LHS
Coal (Australian, $/ton): RHS
Crude oil (average, US$/bbl): RHS
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66. 88
67. 82 .
(%)
(%)
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-
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.
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70
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100
-30.0
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Y/Y export growth to China (%): LHS
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-30%
-15%
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45%
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Copper concentrates Commodity export growth (y/y)
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,
. 2013
- .
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2013 . ,
.
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.
. ( 69)
68. . 69. .
Mongoliasmajor bond yields (%) Sovereign bond spreads (in basis points: 1% = 100 bps)
:
2
4
6
8
10
12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
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Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
Chinggis 10yr Chinnigs 5 yr
Sovereign Dim sum DBM 5 yr
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
SRI LANKA
VIETNAM
MONGOLIA (Chinggis 10yr)
JP Morgan EMBI sovereign spread
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, ,
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6According to the Doing Business 2016 report, Mongolias ease of doing business rank impr oved to the 56thin
2015 from 59thin 2014, among 189 countries. For a full report, see
http://www.doingbusiness.org/~/media/GIAWB/Doing%20Business/Documents/Annual-Reports/English/DB16-
Full-Report.pdf.
http://www.doingbusiness.org/~/media/GIAWB/Doing%20Business/Documents/Annual-Reports/English/DB16-Full-Report.pdfhttp://www.doingbusiness.org/~/media/GIAWB/Doing%20Business/Documents/Annual-Reports/English/DB16-Full-Report.pdfhttp://www.doingbusiness.org/~/media/GIAWB/Doing%20Business/Documents/Annual-Reports/English/DB16-Full-Report.pdfhttp://www.doingbusiness.org/~/media/GIAWB/Doing%20Business/Documents/Annual-Reports/English/DB16-Full-Report.pdfhttp://www.doingbusiness.org/~/media/GIAWB/Doing%20Business/Documents/Annual-Reports/English/DB16-Full-Report.pdf7/24/2019 Mongolian Economic Update 2015
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.
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(entitlement-based programs)- ,
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.
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2012 27.6 2014 21.4 5.8 . 2010
2012 11 .
.
3.5 . ( 1).
44 . ( 71).
.
3. 2010 - 14 70. :201014
(%)
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(%p)
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38.8 27.4 21.6 -5.8
33.2 23.3 18.8 -4.5
49.0 3 .5 26.4 -9.1
52.7 32.3 26.0 -6.3
51.9 38.5 25.3 -13.2
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42.3 33.4 31.4 -2.0
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Strata 4 locations
Ulaanbaatar 31.2 19.8 16.4 -3.5
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2010-12 2012-14
Absolutecontributiontochangeinpovert
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. ,
.
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.
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, (),
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:http://www-
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- - . ,
.
I. , ,
2013 - ()- 2.78 (- 1.37 ) . - 1.6 . . 2013 - . (83 , 50 .10), , (67 , 40 .11 ) . 2013 - .
- , 2010 -2013
( 76). . 2011-2013 40 45 .
75. , 2010- 2013 , (2010 )
:
102013 12 1 . 1661 .
http://www.mongolbank.mn/eng/liststatistic.aspx?did=311 , 1 . 2013 12
1661 .
http://www.mongolbank.mn/eng/liststatistic.aspx?did=3.
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
2010 2011 2012 2013
-
http://www.mongolbank.mn/eng/liststatistic.aspx?did=3http://www.mongolbank.mn/eng/liststatistic.aspx?did=3http://www.mongolbank.mn/eng/liststatistic.aspx?did=37/24/2019 Mongolian Economic Update 2015
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, - / (49.4 ) . 2012 27 - . ( , 2014). . 0-18 94 . 5 , 94 - .
- , 19 (81 ) . 14 , 3.4 2 , 1 3 . 0.5 4
. . 5 (20 )- .12 20 34 ( 77). , 13 , 17 . ( , ) 2 0
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5 (16 ) . 2- , (9 ), (4 ), (3 ).
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/ /-
.
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.
76. 5 Share of total benefits among quantiles
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5 (16 ) . 2-, (9 ), (4 ), (3 ) .
. , , , , .
, () (). , . , . ( 78).
.
: / ,
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77. : ,
Source: SW/PMT data, World Bank staff estimates.
II.
: 70 (
),
. 76
, .
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. 16-
63 16 -
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.
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.
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.
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.
.
15118 2.7
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( ) . 2.7 85.6
.
III.
A.
:
. , .
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.
B. ( )