Monday, April 4, 2011 - Amazon S3 · 2013-09-25 · Monday, April 4, 2011 ... Old crop corn looks to have unprecedented tight stocks and it is expected that the market needs to work

Morning [email protected]

Office 1-877-365-3744www.mnwestag.com

Monday, April 4, 2011

(an equal opportunity provider) The information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but can not beguaranteed. All examples given are strictly hypothetical and neither the information, nor any opinion expressed, constitutes a solicitation tomarket commodities or buy or sell futures or options on futures. Commodity marketing and trading is risky. Trading and/or marketingdecisions and any trading and/or marketing gains or losses are the responsibility of the commodity owner, producer, and/or account holder.Minnesota West Ag Services LLC and principals and employees assume no liability for any use of any information contained herein.Reproduction without authorization is forbidden.

Nest USDA Report: Crop Progress Report today with wheat condition ratingsFriday April 8th Crop Production and WASDE Reports

Position Management: The table shows how the Model Farm is positioned at this time. Individual recommendations may vary.2010 Crop 2011 Crop 2012 Crop

Corn 80% sold–20% basis open July 40% sold HTA 20% sold HTASoybeans 80% sold with basis set 40% sold HTA 12% sold HTAWheat 100% sold with basis set 50% sold HTA none

Prior Price Targets: The prior price targets have all been exceeded.New York bank three month corn price projection to $7.15 reached with the Feb 22nd high of $7.24 ½New York bank three month price target of near $16.00 soybeans. Recent high of $14.55 was made on Feb 9th .What to watch: For July corn HTA’s we watching the basis to set it on the 30% that is open. We are targeting the time frame when plantingis in full swing to potentially set the basis. Old crop corn looks to have unprecedented tight stocks and it is expected that the market needs towork higher , some think $8.00 to $8.50 is going to be necessary to slow usage. Soybeans prices are being tempered from South Americannew soybean stocks being available and the final supply is still somewhat up in the air but is a good crop. New crop corn & soybeans haveset new rally high’s in anticipation of continued tightness of the 2011/12 S&D.

March 31 Stocks Estimates & Planting Intentions

Market Talk: Now that the planted acreage intention numbers have been released, the trade will be placing considerable interest onplanting season weather outlooks. Concerns are being voiced over potential delays in the Upper Midwest and Canada due to the heavysnow-pack in those areas, and the flooding that may occur when it melts. Much of southern MN snow pack as now melted and the blacksoils will warm fast.

Planting weather is not just being monitored in the United States. Farmers in Russia are also ready to begin their planting season, but arebeing delayed by saturated fields. While this may postpone fieldwork, farmers are actually glad to see the moisture as it will help correct lastyear’s major drought in Russia that cut grain production by 30%. The real concern in Russia is the inability to secure inputs due to poor cashflows and limited financing

Recent ethanol data shows corn demand by the industry may be underestimated as during January the ethanol industry consumed 14million bushels of corn per day. Using this pace for the remainder of the marketing year would equate to roughly 5.2 billion bushels of totalcorn use.

Safras reported Brazil soybean harvest at 68% complete. With Argentina reported at 7% complete on Thursday, this suggests SouthAmerican harvest as a whole 40-45% complete.

Outside Markets:

USDA planted acres estimates are within the range of tradeguesses. Watch to see if spring wheat acres migrate into soybeanacres as beans offer potentially greater profits.

The corn stocks are 167 million bushels less than the averagetrade estimate. The soybean stocks are 51 million bushels lessthan the average trade estimate and 18 million below the lowestestimate. The wheat stocks are 26 million bushels above the

average trade estimate.









Live Cattle Lean Hogs Sugar

Drought Monitor & Palmer Index:

Weather: Widespread rains of .25-.75”, isolated to 1”+ to the Midwest tonight and tomorrow. A weak system then looks to bring generallyunder .35” to the Dakotas and northern 1/3rd of the Midwest by later Tuesday night and early Wednesday. The next system looks to developwidespread precip across the Midwest by later Thursday into Friday.

Central Illinois: Central Iowa:

South Central Minnesota: Central Nebraska:





8-14 Day Temp 8-14 Day Precipitation Current Radar Last 24 hr Precip

Corn: Morning: May11 corn closed at $7.48 ½ , up 12 ½ cents, July 11 Corn is at $7.54 ¾ , up 11 ¾ cents,Sept 11 Corn is at $6.90 ½ , up 9 cents, Dec 11 Corn closed at $6.43 , up 5 ½ cents.Friday’s Close: May 11 Corn closed at $7.36, up 42 ¾ cents, Jul 11 Corn closed at $7.43, up 42 cents, Sep 11 Corn closed at $6.81 ½ , up26 ¼ cents Dec 11 Corn closed at $6.37 ½ , up 12 ¼ centsCorn futures traded the expanded limit up on the old crop most of the day but settled off limit to close 42 3/4 cents higher on the day and 47cents higher for the week. The spread between May/Dec corn close just under a dollar. Managed Money and Index Funds increased their netlong corn position by approximately 7900 contracts as of Tuesday, the reporting date, from the previous week. Higher prices are needed toration the available supply of corn and defer usage with stocks extremely tight. The carryout is at extremely low levels and there are fivemonths until September 1st, the beginning of the next crop year. Corn usage needs to be limited 1.30456 billion bushels a month. The AprilWASDE report will be the next area of focus for the industry.

Soybean Complex: Morning: May 11 Soybeans closed at $13.97 ½ , up 3 ¾ cents, Jul 11 Soybeans closed at $14.08 ¼ , up 4 cents ,Sept 11 Soybeans closed at $13.97 , unchanged cents, Nov 11 Soybeans closed at $13.93 ¼ , up 4 cents,Friday’s Close: May 11 Soybeans closed at $13.93 ¾ , down 16 ½ cents, Jul 11 Soybeans closed at $14.04 ¼ , down 16 ¾ cents, Nov 11Soybeans closed at $13.89 ¼ , down 5 ¾ cents, May 11 Soybean Meal closed at $360.90, down $9.80, May 11 Soybean Oil closed at$58.68, down $0.10Soybean futures posted a temporary plus before selling off to close lower on the day but up 36 cents for the week on the old crop. New cropclosed 39 cents higher for the week reaching levels not seen since 2008 and taking out the February highs by 6 cents. The spread betweenold and new crop beans closed at about 4 cents, significantly different than the old crop/new crop corn spread. Higher soybean prices havebeen tempered by the lower U.S. dollar when it comes to exports but the advancement of the South American harvest has turned buyer’seyes south and that’s where they remain for the most part for now. The upcoming WASDE report will be the next area of focus. USDA willhave more data for the Brazil and Argentine soybean production as well as world usage Friday, April 8th.

Wheat: Morning: May 11 CBOT Wheat closed at $7.72 ¾ , up 13 ¼ cents, May 11 MGEX Wheat is at $9.41 , up 18 ½ centsFriday’s Close: May 11 CBOT Wheat closed at $7.59 ½ , down 3 ¾ cents, May 11 KCBT Wheat closed at $9.06 ½ , down 1 ½ cents,May 11 MGEX Wheat closed at $9.22 ½ , down 1 ¼ centsWheat futures were unable to hold earlier gains and closed slightly lower on the day but up for the 26 to 51 cents for the week. Heavy snowcoverage in the Northern Plains could delay planting of the spring wheat unless things dry up and temperatures warm up before mid May.That’s not going to happen soon with below normal temps forecast for most states west of the Rockies and the line includes most of N.Dakota in the 6 to 10 day forecast. Above normal precipitation is also forecast for the Northern Plains. The USDA acreage survey indicatedfarmers intend to plant 14.4 million acres of other spring wheat which is mostly grown in the Northern states and Canada. Canada also hasabundant snow coverage so we’ll have to see what the weather holds. Cash basis levels for HRW wheat were higher. Jordon purchased50,000 MT of HRW optional origin on a 100,000 MT tender that closed yesterday.

Cattle: Friday’s Close: Apr 11 Cattle closed at $122.07, up $0.52, Jun 11 Cattle closed at $121.25, up $0.27, Aug 11 Cattle closed at$122.60, up $0.42, Apr 11 Feeder Cattle closed at $138.10, up $0.30 May 11 Feeder Cattle closed at $139.40, up $0.02 Aug 11 FeederCattle closed at $141.87, up $0.65Cattle futures closed higher on the day and up $3.48 for the week. Feeder cattle were $4.38 higher for the week. Very strong demand andnearby tight numbers drove the cash market and futures followed closing the week in line with TX cash. Cattle in NE sold for $124 to $125yesterday afternoon. TX cattle sold for $121 to $122 on average and KS cattle sold for $123 yesterday in the live and $195 in the dressed.The bulk of dressed sales were at $198 although NE was at $200 for the dressed. The cash Feeder cattle sold from $2.00 to $10.00 higherthis week with most of the trade between $5 and $8 dollars higher later in the week. Cash prices have exceeded the record high posted inOctober of 2003. Boxed beef prices closed mixed. Choice beef was up $1.37 at $189.78 and Select was down $0.02 at $185.02. The U.S.Department of Labor reported March payrolls were up 216,000 and unemployment fell to a two year low of 8.8 percent. More familyincome could improve beef sales and compete with exports. Beef exports remain strong and imports are down.

Hogs: Friday’s Close: Apr 11 Hogs closed at $94.22, up $0.50, May 11 Hogs closed at $103.07, unch, Jun 11 Hogs closed at $103.57,down $0.30Hog futures ended the day mixed with most contracts closing higher on the day. Lean Hog futures closed up $1.75 for the week. Feed pricesfor the week were higher. The Lean Hog Index was up $0.82 as of March 30th from the previous day at 88.03. The difference between April





hogs and the Index is just over $6. 00. Cash hogs in IA/MN were up $1.83 at $89.06 this afternoon, WCB hogs were $1.11 higher and ECBhogs were $1.06 higher. The pork trade was slow to moderate with light to moderate demand and offerings. The Carcass ended lower on theday.

Cotton: Friday’s Close: May 11 Cotton closed at 195.55, down 468 points, Jul 11 Cotton closed at 188.1, down 480 points Dec 11 Cottonclosed at 132.18, down 32 pointsCotton futures closed lower on old and new crop with the new crop taking the brunt of the selling. Cotton was down 894 points for theweek. Although acreage intentions were below what the industry was expecting, acres are the highest since 2005. Yields of course remain amystery. The USDA will report the U.S. and world cotton situation on Friday, April 8th. A report from the Australian cotton industry statedAustralia will produce 4.05 million bales of cotton. Growers were able to save much of the cotton that was at risk from summer floods.Australian production is above the record 3.5 million bales produced in 2001/02. Other countries have also increased cotton production thisyear. The International Cotton Advisory Committee sees world production rising to 27.4 million MT in 2011/12 and considers that increasesmall when looking at the doubling of cotton prices in the past year. However that price increase is not necessarily reflected in the cashmarket. Certificated stocks were at 205,273 bales up from the previous days 204,082 bales.

National Weather Service Flood WarningsE South Dakota, NW Iowa, SW Minnesota Southern Minnesota

National Weather Service Flood WarningsRed River Valley, E North Dakota , NW Minnesota SE Minnesota , NE Iowa, SW Wisconsin





May 11 Corn Daily Chart Weekly Corn Chart

May 11 Soybean Daily Chart Weekly Soybean Chart

May 11 Mpls Spring Wheat Daily Chart Weekly Mpls Spring Wheat Chart

Documents

Monday, April 4, 2011 - Amazon S3 · 2013-09-25 · Monday, April 4, 2011 ... Old crop corn looks to have unprecedented tight stocks and it is expected that the market needs to work