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Journal of Futures Studies, August 2003, 8(1): 61-72

Molitor Forecasting Model: Key Dimensions for Plotting the "Patterns of Change"

Graham T.T. MolitorPublic Policy ForecastingU.S.A.

Key arrays depicting the developing dimensions ofchange processes comprising the Molitor ForecastingModel reveal future trends with an extraordinary accura-cy. Observing policy making -- ranging from the WhiteHouse to Fortune 500 Companies, from politics to busi-ness -- the author organized, piece-by-piece, the practicalexperiences from which these "patterns of change" werederived. Based on the innumerable policies and pro-grams being developed, for nearly 50 years Molitor

wrote down the step-by-step activities giving rise tochange. Over 100 different patterns of change processeshave been developed, including the nine described inthis short article.1 This article presents and briefly explainsnine of these template timelines. Each one contributes apiece of the puzzle. Arrayed together, the cumulativeeffect reveals and corroborates the trend and direction,the verve and deterministic outcomes of impendingchange.

To begin with, forecasting presupposes a thoroughknowledge of factors prevailing in the EXTERNAL ENVI-RONMENT provide the setting or context for sizing upany situation. This undergirding backdrop consists of thetwo great divisions of reality or "being" in which civiliza-tion is ensconced:

1. The natural or physical science realities constituting

the particular environment. Constants of naturalphenomena (including cyclic patterns) basicallystructure the parameters of a given environment.Ambient freezing a boiling temperatures imposeknown constraints influencing states of matter, cli-mate differences, ocean currents, and so on.Geological conditions influence the coming and

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going of Earth's features, tectonic platemovements, earthquake potentials alonggeographic fault lines, volcanic activity,and so on. Both factors influence distribu-tion and survival of flora and fauna. On acosmic scale, the lifecycles of stars andplanetary systems script Earth's beginningand demise. Who's got the oil (OPEC),coal (U.S. and Russia), and the "lockhold"on nuclear fusion. The list that encom-passes what "nature" has provided, couldgo on. It doesn't take a rocket scientist tofigure that out. Countries with scantresources and adverse weather, likeBangladesh, face great adversity and dimprospects. Nations endowed with abun-dant natural resources, favorable climate,good soil, and so on have a much morepositive base to build upon.

2. The other great sphere involves the man-made and human resource dimensions thatcontinually shape any given situation orenvironment. What any given jurisdiction ororganization "brings to the table" has amaterial bearing on potentials for makingthe most of what they've got. Educationalstatus and illiteracy materially affect thesepotentials. So too, does a population baseof 1.25 billion. Small groups typically havelimited potential compared to huge ones.It's impossible, for example, for an individualto construct a Boeing 747 in a backyard, buthuge aerospace companies can. Totalitarianorganizations/states have different potentialsthan democratic ones. Capitalist societieshave different opportunities than commu-nistic ones. Downtrodden castes or minori-ties have different possibilities than elites.

First and foremost in shaping the humancondition is the all-pervading influence of theECONOMIC SECTOR DOMINANCE, rangingfrom households to civilization itself upon whichhumanity is dependent and around which it iscentered. Everybody has to "make their way."Jobs and livelihoods overwhelmingly dominateprospects for individuals and their dependents,as well as entire communities, nations and the

entire world. Sizing up the potentials of ongoing

"progress," researchers tend to look at the eco-nomic levels of development prevailing in agiven situation. Eras of humanity have beenmolded by the overshadowing influences associ-ated with shifts from agriculture to manufactur-ing, on into services, and currently (among so-called advanced economies) centered on infor-

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mation-based undertakings. Millennial prospectsindicate at least five major new economic erasthat will drastically alter the shape of things tocome. Incremental factors, step-by-step, inchentire nations headlong toward these newepochs. Outcomes are deterministic, not fatalis-

tic. The powerful momentum of developmentslead, sooner or later, to foregone conclusion.

Lifestyles, values, ideology, philosophicalprinciples each are profoundly altered by thedominant mode of activity abroad in a commu-nity. Hard work ethic associated with agriculture

and manufacturing, waned as society movedinto service sector dominance. Hedonistic ten-dencies came to the forefront. Impendingleisure-dominated societies will further accentu-ate that stance. Life science era capabilities toalter genetic outcomes and transform/control lifeportends human control over the very nature oflife itself. Mega-material potentials, including theeventual ability to reconstruct inorganic matterand fashion designer materials to order, entailpowers to control the very shape of matter thatmakes up and configures the nature of our envi-ronments. Awesome powers to control andmanipulate animate and inanimate matter,organic and inorganic matter to whim totallyalters human conceptions of "being." These radi-cal changes will necessitate new concepts of thesoul, spirituality, and religious beliefs.

If you understand the past and present, andassess prospective breakthroughs and possibili-ties within the limits of possible change, thenprojecting outcomes becomes a cinch. Easiersaid, than done.

The genesis of change originates in creativeminds. Merely conceiving innovative ideas is notenough. Concepts must be put forward andnurtured. Ethereal musings require application ifthey are to make any difference. Although mostgreat ideas emanate from the gifted few, a fairshare of important ideas emanate from practicalexperience and experimentation by hordes ofless gifted individuals.

INNOVATION involves applying abstractconcepts to practical purposes. This phase car-ries ideas to fulmination. Patent filings andgrants provide a one indication of advances, as

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do venture capital investments, and - overall --research and development activities across abroad spectrum of involved institutions.

Sound ideas affecting sciences are posed asunproven hypothesis. All manner of enhance-ment and refinement follows. Eventually, proofsprovide verification. Overcoming grudgingresistance at the outset, acceptance generallydevelops in time. As Victor Hugo once put it,"No army can stop an idea whose time hascome." Widespread acceptability, sooner or later

congeals. The old gets displaced by the new.But, even as a new "comfort zone" is found withthe new, the ceaseless search already is under-way for carrying development along one stepfurther. That perpetual search for doing thingsjust a little better is the driving force behind theperpetual chain of successive technologicalimprovements . Progress itself is measured bythe very status of ongoing quests.

There is a tendency to think of ideas interms of physical sciences, technology and

"things." Social inventions involving the "soft"sciences tend to be an overlooked dimension ofchange processes. Social inventions include phe-nomena like marriage and divorce, legislativebodies and courts, democracy, and so on.

Inventions of this sort may have societal impactsfar greater and far more important than thosebased on hard sciences.

Following adoption of new ideas and their

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practical application (innovation), ramificationsor impacts of those new phenomena - EVENTS -creates another pattern of change. Impact ofevents can be positive or negative. The good are

welcomed with open arms, and rapid accept-ance and widespread use soon follows. The"bad" influences or effects, the downsides poseproblems. Speed of response depends, to a large

extent, upon the severity of the problem posed.Serious problems tend to be swiftly dispatched.

No matter how meticulous the risk-benefitanalysis may be, the unpredictability of humannature often interposes bizarre situations thatrequire a second look. Nobody recognized thatrefrigerators provided an "attractive nuisance"

that led to entrapment and death of manyyoung children. The response, following theseevents was to require low-torque magnetic doorclosures, and removing hinges and doors priorto discarding older models. Effects sometimestake years to fester and be recognized. Toxicity ofworker exposure to vinyl chloride workers was

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not identified until 29 years after productioncommenced. Once recognized, the number ofknown cases skyrocketed. Onset of diseaseresulting from asbestos exposure may not bemanifested until 46 years after exposure.

Lawsuits involving hundreds of thousands ofexposed individuals still plague the courts.

Elaborate systems and institutions havebeen established to monitor serious event pat-terns. Specialized data collection units within

companies, non-governmental organizations,universities, government, and other institutionshave been established to gather and assessposed risks. Statistical refinements, includingterms to characterize special problems or situa-tions, emerge as more is known about a specificphenomena. Following recognition and quantifi-cation of serious (and sometimes not so serious)

problems, remedial steps are undertaken to elim-inate, reduce, or ameliorate risks. Correctivemeasures pare back adverse event incidence,and thereafter public interest wanes.

LEADING AUTHORITIES. A vanguard ofleading authorities, experts and advocates are atthe forefront to elucidate, explain and otherwise

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advance the process of change. A gifted fewintellectuals hatch the ideas, scientists developthem, researchers refine them, sales and market-ing professionals disseminate the fruits, and userspopularize responses or use.

True "fountainheads" of ideas/innovationare few in number. In any specialized area ofinterest, discipline or specialty there always is asmall handful of individuals who are head andshoulders above the others. It is not unusual fortrue originator expertise to number as few as 6-12 individuals, perhaps 20 worldwide. Afteroriginal ideas or concepts are wafted, entire ech-elons of others get involved in forwarding thematter under discussion. Once set in motion, avast horde of scholars, institutional leaders andinfluential opinion molders become engaged inmoving matters along. Occasionally, person(s)victimized by a phenomena evoke sympathy,and may wind up personifying and spearhead-ing a specific problem. Champions of causesstep into the limelight to carry problems (oropportunities) into the public spotlight and pop-ularize them, gather support for taking action.Each of these leader categories can be furtherbroken down into sub-groups that prove usefulin measuring the extent and degree of influenceexerted in a given situation. The sheer din andnumber in the vanguard of change create pres-sures that become increasingly hard to ignore.

New ideas begin as inchoate thoughts.Informal deliberations and oral discussions areprelude to shaping thoughts into coherent form.Over time, new ideas find their way into morepermanent media. Often there is a considerablelag between the time creative thoughts are firstconjured up or mentioned and the point thatthey find their way into written form.Sometimes, creative thinking never gets beyondthe thought stage, never finding its way intoprint. Most important, widespread publicationputs new concepts before much larger audi-ences. Initial expression typically is found in sci-entific and technical literature. This process usu-ally starts with the most narrowly focused topicalcoverage journals. Dissemination of ideas growsas the more popular and widely read journalspick up on them. The trendline of this accumu-

lating pressure is plotted by chronological date,the number of articles or column inch countsindicating the relative "push." Increasing famil-iarity by the widening circle of interested personsincreases and speeds up the pressures forchange.

No matter what the issue, or even hownovel it may be, a vast range of thought alreadyhas been expressed somewhere and someplace.Getting on top of things simply involves "miningthe data." It's there - somewhere. The trick is tofind it. Written materials provide a more perma-nent and readily available data base for docu-mentary research. Scientific, technical and pro-fessional journals are of greatest importance inany search. That's where the answers, in oneform or another, will be found. Sometimes thisinvolves piecing together inputs from far-flungfields of knowledge. Synthesis of disparate partsoften helps to reveal more obscure matters. Thetrick is to know when to "cut bait." Avoid themistake of overkill, researching mattes to death.

The Molitor Model, based on observationsover many decades and construction of innu-merable massive literature counts, reveals andcorroborates a flow of coverage. This sequenceflows from highly specific, serious scientific jour-nals to mass media coverage. It proceeds fromthe prolix to the popular. Literature countsarrayed year-by-year reveal a slow take-off, anincreasing pace at mid-point, and a tailing offthat often occurs about two-thirds of the waythrough the covered time period, and a radicaldrop off during the last year or so (due largely toreporting and compiling delays).

Bibliometric counts that measure only theworks of leading authorities on a specific topic,also follow a similar pattern. The overwhelmingbulk of most surveys of scientific literature turnup an overwhelming preponderance of writerswith only 1-2 articles on a topic to their credit -these are the "kibitzers," the "wannabes," and the"camp followers." Their commentaries may beinteresting, but they are not seminal.

As new and interesting developments comeabout, entrepreneurial publishers are there. Thefirst automotive magazine, The Horseless Age,was published in 1895 and it heralded advent ofmotor vehicles. The Fish Protein Concentrate

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News made its debut when global protein defi-ciencies topped foreign aid agendas. Obscureand highly specific publications, such as TheBioelectro-Magnetic Society Newsletter, identifiesa unique and limited-focus organization, andtypifies how narrow coverage may be. Yearsago, this author maintained a collection of over60 different publications limited to covering sug-ars and sweeteners out of an estimated hundredssurmised to be published worldwide! Whowould have ever thought such a thing!

Books, integrating accumulated knowledgeon a given subject, emerge sometime after treat-ment in periodicals begins. Books written bysome authors may sum up their life long work ina coherent coverage of it entirety. Persuasive

influence of coherent and compelling explicationof issues may launch a new discipline, discoveryor destiny of nations. Harriet Beecher Stowe'sUncle Tom's Cabin, dealing with emancipatingslaves, was credited by President Lincoln for start-ing the Civil War! Rachel Carson's Silent Spring,triggered renewed interest in saving the environ-ment, Ralph's Nader's book, Unsafe At AnySpeed, brought about automobile safety lawsand initiated a new wave of consumer protec-tion. The power of the pen can be mighty.

Artistic and visionary works (science fiction,poetry, novels, posters, protest signs, rap music,etc), uninhibited by peer constraints or politicalcorrectness, often elucidate plausible ideas longbefore serious scientific minds take them up. In

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like manner, scientists often ruminate about,conceptually articulate, and write about whatmight be within the realm of the possible, longbefore scientific advances make those distantdreams a reality.

Chronicles of change are not limited toprinted materials. Hard copy, however, doesprovide a permanent and easily consulted database that "anchors" serious research. Photo-jour-nalism, theatrical production, motion pictures,jokes, cartoons, even rallies and demonstrations,all of these and literally every other imaginableform of communication, are part and parcel ofthe expression of ideas and public opinion thathelp move ideas, events and issues along acrossthe stage of advancing change.

As ideas emerge, hosts of newly formed oron-going, organizations and institutions of everyimaginable sort enter the change process. Onceestablished, the very existence and activities ofgroups that take up a cause become a lightningrod that attracts other interested parties and newadherents. Expansion of activities often flowfrom originating local areas, to regions, spannations, and may become global in scope.Trendlines depicting organization growth are

plotted by tabulating the number of organiza-tions, persons involved or resources committed.Typical timelines of these measurements depict aslow onset, a jolt upwards at the early outset, fol-lowed by steady but slower growth. Ultimately,critical mass is achieved when the numbers orvolume of activity become so large that it simplyforces serious and sustained consideration ofmatters at stake.

Things rarely "just happen" randomly andwithout coherent direction. Organizations andinstitutions provide a rallying point, a centralplace to collect data, ensure continuity, and pro-vide a responsible cadre to mange and lead fur-ther development of ideas or issues.

There's no limit to the kinds of organiza-tions that emerge to champion a specific view-point or cause of any kind. For example, TheExotic Dancers League (burlesque house strip-pers) was established primarily to oppose grow-ing competition from more permissivetopless/bottomless bars. Protestors objecting toBritish taxation of the Colonies staged the BostonTea Party, that contributed to overt rebellion.The role of "Greens" in defining, advancing andcontrolling environmental depredations hasbeen quite successful.

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Expert advisory committees and commis-sions established by national governments -especially those in Sweden, Great Britain, andthe U.S. - have played prominent and pivotalroles in innumerable causes and issues. In fact,one of the starting points for many of my studieshas always been to secure all available "blue-rib-bon" reports from just these three countries!Virtually every important issue is carefully andexpertly researched by numerous organizationsin most very nation. Reports developed byacknowledged experts provide a ready resourcefor delving into new issues. The secret is recog-nizing their value and knowing how to obtainsuch reports.

A small vanguard of governments, duringany time in history, consistently tend to be themost venturesome, experimental, and progres-sive. Precursors -- also termed bellwethers, pace-setters, leading jurisdictions -- test the mettle ofsolutions.

When adversities need to be curbed or ben-eficial developments need to be encouraged,governments often establish laws supportingdesired outcomes. Before dwelling on legislativelead-lag relationships, it must be emphasizedthat a host of "public policy" responses invariably

are inveighed. These responses range frominformal rules and settlements, to judicial settle-ments between parties (or classes), self-govern-ment, voluntary accommodation (such as indus-try-wide solutions), contractual arrangementsbetween parties, and on into the full range ofexecutive, legislative, regulatory and judicial deci-sion making. Setting matters straight entailssuch a range of responses, each one providing aseparate "barometer" of change, its directionpace, and timing.

Based upon plotting thousands of chrono-logical timeline arrays of state and local lawsreveals a predictable sequence of legislative lead-ers and laggards. Listing enactments bychronological adoption dates (not the effectivedates) indicates sequences that indicate likelytiming for responses over the course of the com-ing years. These "patterns of change" follow anS-curve shape. Lawmaking never occurs every-where at the same time. The sequence startscautiously with initial innovators and earlyadopters, followed by a surge of followers duringmid-course, and terminates with a slow finish (ifever) by a few laggards. One proven successleads to emulation elsewhere.

Local government bellwethers among U.S.

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county and city governments include: Berkeley,New York and Boston. Sub-jurisdictional bell-wethers internationally include: Stockholm, Oslo,Copenhagen, Amsterdam, The Hague, NorthRhine-Westphalia, Bonn, London, Brussels, St.Gallen, Zurich, Basel, Bern, Saskatchewan, Tokyoand New South Wales. Laggard state and localjurisdictions include Mississippi, Alabama,Arkansas, South Dakota and Louisiana in the U.S.Internationally, lesser -developed and impover-ished countries, such as Bangladesh andEthiopia, are among the laggards.

Response by nation-states also occurs inpredictable patterns. After actual implementa-tion somewhere, the principle(s) involved ceasesto be merely theoretical. As it undergoes "fieldtesting," validity and desirability of particularapproaches for coping with matters tests andproves its mettle. Principles proven by onenation spread from one country to the next.

The usual S-curve patterns also pertains tonation-states. Once the initial tier of 4-8 earliestadopters have established a particular policy orprogram, the successes (or failures) amassedstimulate similar responses elsewhere. These"patterns of change" commence in Scandinaviaand Western European nations. Responses therealmost always foreshadow what's ahead for theU.S. Precursor jurisdictions, corroborated byinnumerable timelines arrays, currently include:Scandinavia (Sweden Norway, Denmark, some-times Finland), and Western Europe(Netherlands, Germany, Switzerland, France,U.K.); North America (U.S., Canada). Additionalnations sometimes included among earlyadopters include: Australia, New Zealand, Japanand Iceland. Eastern European nations (Poland,Czechoslovakia, and the former USSR) also havebeen leaders for some issues, such as environ-mental matters (pesticides, synthetic food colors,electro-magnetic field hazards). Lesser devel-oped nations in Asia (Bangladesh, Nepal, et al),and Africa (Burkina Faso, Zaire, Ethiopia, et al)consistently are among the laggards. Rankordered adoption of legislative solutions typicallyfollows the sequences arrayed in the chart anddescribed here in a lock-step-like manner.

One parting tip: I have found that Swedenand California so often have been the "very first

by whom the new is tried," that they provide aforecaster's shortcut (at least for later-adoptingjurisdictions). In other words, activities in justthese two jurisdictions provide a somewhat reli-able indicator for anticipating developments like-ly to be undertaken elsewhere.

Concluding thought. The nine "patterns ofchange" from the Molitor Model describe someof the elements or templates that explicatecumulative "drivers" of change, most any kind ofchange. Starting from a baseline of thoroughfamiliarity with the external environment, thenatural and human resources prevailing in a spe-cific situation, especially the stage of economicdevelopment, constitute the preconditions andthe starting point for forecasting. Everythingstarts with ideas. Practical application of abstractthoughts - innovations - generate "ripple effects,"telltale event patterns that measure impacts, pos-itive or negative. Leading authorities are the"guiding lights" that champion and advance thenew. Cadres of intellectual elites, victims, andhordes of interested parties generate a wave ofdebate in all mediums of expression, the writtenword best documenting that progression orregression of change. In turn, these hordes ofindividuals rely upon organizations and institu-tional arrangements that sustain and lead discus-sions. All of the pressures involved generate cli-mates of public opinion that prompt govern-ments to respond, hopefully in a manner thatadvances humanity's best interests.

Correspondence: 9208 Wooden Bridge Road, Potomac, Maryland20854, USA. gttmolitor@AOL.com

Notes 1 A forthcoming book entitled The Power to

Change the World will describe over 100 ofthese "patterns of change."

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