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8/9/2019 Modelo de presentaciones efectivas
1/18
Booz & Company
This document is confidential and is intended solely for
the use and information of the client to whom it is addressed.
Growth in the RecessionChallenges and Opportunities for the Telecom Sector
Beirut, April 16, 200 Conference !resentation
8/9/2019 Modelo de presentaciones efectivas
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Booz & Company
16 April 2002
%
"atin America
North Africa
Gulf
#10
$%1
$astern $urope
Asia &Australasia
Comparative Growth Rates'eal #(! Chan)e p.a. *+
The world is experiencing a far-reaching recession
-ote #ulf includes #CC countries and /emen
8/9/2019 Modelo de presentaciones efectivas
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16 April 200
However, emerging markets, including the MiddleEast, continue to promise sustained economic growth
2009 2010
Old Forecast New Forecast Old Forecast New Forecast
orld Output 2.2 0. . .0
Adva!ced "co!omies 0. 2.0 1.6 1.1
"mer#i!# a!d $evelopi!# "co!omies .1 . 6.2 .0
Africa 3. .3 .3 3.
Central and $astern $urope 2.2 0.3 . 2.
C45 .2 0.3 3. 2.2
Developing Asia .1 . .0 6.
Middle East .3 . . 3.
7estern 8emisphere 2. 1.1 3.0 .0
G$ Growth roectio!s' 2009(2010+
-ote 9Ad:anced $conomies; includes %5, $uro Area, ther Ad:anced $conomies
9(e:elopin) Asia; includes China, 4ndia and the fi:e A5$A- countries
97estern 8emisphere; includes Brazil and ?e@ico
5ource 7orld $conomic >utloo %pdate,
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16 April 2003
Telecom services growth has proven resilient ineconomic downturns, especially in growing emergingmarkets
Glo)al *elecom +ervice Reve!ues*1 200 *%5( Billion
11 20001 2002001 2002
2001 dow!tur!
5ource 4T%
$ssential ser:ice for users
'elati:ely small percenta)e
of disposale income
$eveloped
,ar-ets
"mer#i!#
,ar-ets
-ascent maret sta)e with
continued e@ponential )rowth
momentum
Co:era)e e@pansion in
under penetrated re)ions
*elecom Resilie!ce $rivers
8/9/2019 Modelo de presentaciones efectivas
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16 April 200
as telecom services are !ecoming essential forconsumers
5ource Business 7ee, Booz & Company 5ur:ey 200, Booz & Company analysis
8ousehold )oods
$lectronics
$ntertainment
Tra:el
"u@ury )oods
$ssential Basics
Clothin)
Ratio!ale a!d "vide!ce
oice remains an essential ser:ice
Broadand access is increasin)ly
ecomin) important for consumers
D $.). $uropean Commission is
considerin) a uni:ersal ser:ice
oli)ation *%5> on roadandaccess
Telecommunications ser:icesecome more critical durin) a
recessionsE e.).
D "ess tra:el and facetoface
meetin)s
D "ess social acti:ities leadin) to
more calls and home
entertainment *4!T, internetrowsin), etc.
".pected Cut i! Co!sumer +pe!di!# duri!#
a! "co!omic $ow!tur!*200 *+
8/9/2019 Modelo de presentaciones efectivas
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Telecom plays a key role in ena!ling other sectorsand is thus important for driving overall G"# growthduring this recession
+ector Applicatio!s ( ".amples
/ealthcare
Telemedicine 8ealth ser:ices research >nline monitorin)
Gover!me!t
e!ulic ser:ices -ational acone 4CT
infrastructure
Aviatio!
Ticetin) systems 'outin) systems Aerospace research
o#istics
'F4( and -FC apps Broadcastin) "o)istics 4T applications
"ducatio!
e"earnin) irtual uni:ersity Content mana)ement
$efe!se
5imulation systems 'emote intel )atherin) #!5
*elecom !dustr "!a)li!# Role Co!tri)utio!s to G$ GrowthA:era)e Annual #rowth in +, 12006
Australia#ermany Canada
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16 April 200
Governments see the national !road!andinfrastructure and a key driver for growth out of therecession
Natio!al 3road)a!d Networ-s ( Gover!me!t !vestme!ts
[We] need action and action now. That is why I have ased !y econo!ic tea!
to develop an econo!ic recovery plan" that will help save or create at least two
and a half !illion #o$s% while re$&ilding o&r infrastr&ct&re" As we renew o&r
schools and highways% we'll also renew o&r infor!ation s&perhighway" $eca&se
that's how we'll strengthen A!erica's co!petitiveness in the world.(
When we tal a$o&t the roads and the $ridges and the railways that were $&ilt in
previo&s ti!es ) and those were anti)recession !eas&res taen to help people thro&gh
diffic< ti!es ) yo& co&ld [$y co!parison] tal a$o&t the digital infrastr&ct&re and that
for! of co!!&nications revol&tion at a period when we want to sti!&late the econo!y.
It*s a very i!portant thing;
Ratio!ale
!olicymaers in the %5,
%=, =orea, #ermany,
5pain, and !ortu)al are
looin) at channelin)in:estments in -e@t
#eneration Broadand
-etwors to
D create new Gos
D support new usinesses
D stimulate in:estment
3arac- O)ama'
Radio Address o! the "co!om14
Gordo! 3row!'
*he O)server !terview24
1 httpIIchan)e.)o:InewsroomIentryItheJeyJpartsJofJtheJGosJplanI
2 httpIIwww.)uardian.co.uIpoliticsI200IGanI03I)ordonrownemploymentnewdeal
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Booz & Company
16 April 200
However, Government ownership in nationalincum!ents may create ine$ciencies in operations
K perator Annual 'eports
Gover!me!t Ow!ership ( mpact
mpact of Ow!ership o!
"fficie!c 520064
Other
$rivers
As the telecom sector de:elops, there is a lower need for the
)o:ernment to remain directly in:ol:ed
Chan)in) demo)raphic structure dri:e )o:ernments to free up funds to
in:est in social welfare proGects
'educin) ownership increases pri:ate in:estment attracti:eness
'educin) ownership eases pressure international trade commitments
Re#io!al !cum)e!ts 520074
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ME%& telecom li!erali'ation has led to a rapidincrease in the num!er of operators, particularly inthe mo!ile sector
Num)er of ,o)ile Operators i! the ,"NA Re#io!*2000 200
200200220012000 200 2003 200 2006 200
5ource #loal 4nsi)ht, Booz & Company analysis
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resulting in strong market growth
,"NA *elecom +u)scri)ers*?illion *2003 200
82%
?oile
Fi@ed
Broadand
200
22.0
+
21+
200
21.2
6+
23+
2006
16.
1+
2+
200
12.
63+
+
2003
.3
+
3+
-ote Telecom re:enues are estimates
5ource 4nforma, #loal 4nsi)ht, Booz & Company analysis
,"NA *elecom Reve!ues*%5( Billion *2003 200
816%
20020020062002003
,"NA *elecom ,ar-et Overview
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Booz & Company
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Market level competition is intensifying in mostmarkets, !ut lags in others
Competitive Activit of +u)(Re#io!al Clusters i! the ,"NA Re#io!*200
5ource 4nforma, Booz & Company analysis
< 3 Mobile Players 3 Mobile Players > 3 Mobile PlayersLegend:
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Booz & Company
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This is leading to the emergence of true glo!alplayers in the ME%& region
Num)er of ,"NA *elecom +ervice roviders ) Class
$escriptio! Typically partof lar)e
7estern
$uropean)roup
?ainly state
owned
operators that
ha:e note@panded their
footprint
$mer)in) )loal
telecoms with
assets spannin)
multiple clusters
>perators with
se:eral assets
within the
?$-A re)ion
>perators with
one telecom
asset
>perators that
donLt own
physical
networ
,@NO "mer#i!#
Glo)al
Operators
ocal
!cum)e!ts
".patriate
Operators
3
Re#io!al
Operators
2
5ource #loal 4nsi)ht, Booz & Company analysis
Niche
Operators
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,"NA ,ar-et +hare 3 +ervice rovider Class*+ *200
)essons from advanced markets indicate that localincum!ents tend to disappear in time andglo!al*regional players dominate
"urope ,ar-et +hare ) +ervice rovider Class*+ *200
?->
2+
-iche
'e)ional
1+
#loal
+
0+
-iche
2+"ocal
4ncument
'e)ional +
#loal
1+
?->
5ource #loal 4nsi)ht, ?errill "ynch ?atri@, Booz & Company analysis
,"NA a!d "urope +u)scri)er ,ar-et +hare ) Class
8/9/2019 Modelo de presentaciones efectivas
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8/9/2019 Modelo de presentaciones efectivas
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8/9/2019 Modelo de presentaciones efectivas
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Booz & Company
16 April 2001
.n summary
The telecom sector is less :ulnerale to the )loal recession than other sectors
The sector is seen as a dri:er of the economy and therefore policy maers are dri:in) in:estments
and reform more than e:er efore
D 5upport roadand infrastructure deployment
D $ncoura)e in:estments
D 'educe #o:ernment ownership while increasin) )o:ernment support
The re)ion continues to e@perience )rowth as lieralization ad:ances, howe:er la)s ehind in
some countries where lieralization is necessary
7e will see sin)le maret operators ein) suGect to failure as )loalization pcs up pace
D Bein) part of a )loal or re)ional )roup is a must for lon) term success
The )ap etween the ?iddle $ast re)ion and $urope is narrowin), howe:er some countries need
to play si)nificant catch up in order to reach this le:el