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Model Development at NCEP
Brad Ferrier1,2
1 NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC2 I.M. Systems Group, Inc. (IMSG)
(+ Geoff Manikin1, Geoff DiMego1, Eric Aligo1,2)
NCAR & FAA In-Flight Icing Users Technical Interchange Meeting (TIM)
25-26 February 2015UCAR Office
Washington, DC
Regional Hurricane
GFDLWRF-NMM
WRF ARW, NMMB,WRF NMM
Climate ForecastSystem (CFS)
Short-RangeEnsemble Forecast
NOAA’s Operational Production Suite (2014)
GFS, MOM4,NOAH, Sea Ice
North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS)
GEFS, Canadian Global Model
Dispersion HYSPLIT
Air QualityCMAQ
RegionalNAM (NAMRR)
NMMB, Noah3D-V
AR
DA
Regional Bays• Great Lakes (POM)
• N Gulf of Mexico (FVCOM)• Columbia R. (SELFE)• Chesapeake (ROMS)
• Tampa (ROMS)• Delaware (ROMS)
SpaceWeather
ENLIL2
North American Land Surface Data Assimilation
System (NLDAS)Noah Land Surface Model
Global SpectralNoah
3D-E
n-Va
rDA
Global Forecast System (GFS)
3D-V
AR
DA
3D-V
AR
DA
WRF ARW
Rapid Refresh
3D-V
AR
DA
WavesWAVEWATCH III
Ocean HYCOM
Ecosystem EwE
Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS)21 GFS Members
ESTOFSADCIRC
SURGESLOSH
P-SURGESLOSH
WRF ARW3D-V
AR
DA
High Resolution RRNEMS Aerosol Global Component (NGAC)
GFS & GOCART
WRF ARW & NMMB
High Res Windows
(Systems in magenta will be discussed in this presentation)
NCAR-FAA In-Flight Icing 3
Road Map and Themes• Where we are and where do we want to go
– Short-range regional (mesoscale) modeling– Current & future global prediction systems
• Evolution over the next 5 years– From current “model of the day” thinking– To probabilistic guidance from ensemble systems
(Limited discussion on aircraft icing)
25-26 Feb 2015
Regional Systems (4/day)
• 12 km/60L to 84 h (SREF, 16 km/35-40L)• Nests (60L) to 60 h, except 1.33 km
fire weather to 36 h (relocatable)• 1-way nesting• Runs @ 00, 06, 12, 18 UTC
• NMMB & WRF ARW (40L) to 48 h• 00, 12 UTC - CONUS, Hawaii, Guam• 06, 18 UTC – AK, PR• Initialized from Rapid Refresh (RAP)
North American Mesoscale (NAM) High-Resolution Window (HRW) Runs
425-26 Feb 2015 NCAR-FAA In-Flight Icing
Rapid Refresh Systems (24/day)
5
RAP
HRRR
• Developed at ESRL/GSD• WRF ARW model
13 km/50 L
3 km/50 L
12 km
3 km
3 km
3 km 3 km
• Being developed at NCEP/EMC• NEMS/NMMB model
NAMRR
RAP = Rapid RefreshHRRR = High-Resolution Rapid Refresh
NAMRR = NAM Rapid Refresh(to be implemented in Q1FY16)
• RAP - hourly to 18 h• HRRR –hourly to 15 h• LH T tendencies from radar data
• Similar to NAM at 00, 06, 12, 18Z• Hourly runs to 18 h at other times• LH T tendencies from radar data
25-26 Feb 2015 NCAR-FAA In-Flight Icing
+60 L (all domains)
Benefits of radar data assimilation
25-26 Feb 2015 NCAR-FAA In-Flight Icing 6
0-hr anx3-kmradar
DA2013 HRRR
0-hr anxNo 3-km
radar DA
2012 HRRR
Obs23z
30 May 2012
From G. Manikin(NCEP HRRR Briefing)
Benefits of High-Res Models for Aviation
25-26 Feb 2015 NCAR-FAA In-Flight Icing 7
07 June 2012 5 PM EDTReality
3-km HRRR Explicit
Convection 6 hr forecast
13-km RAP Parameterized
Convection 6 hr forecast
Aircraft mustNavigate AroundThunderstorms
No Storm Structure
No Estimate of Permeability
Accurate Storm Structure
Accurate Estimate of PermeabilityFrom G. Manikin
(NCEP HRRR Briefing)
Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF)
25-26 Feb 2015 NCAR-FAA In-Flight Icing 8
(Sample 84-87 h QPF for all 26 members from the parallel SREF)
Ops vs Parallel SREF SystemsOperational SREF
• 16 km, 35 L -- 21 members• 3 dynamic cores / ICs
– NEMS/NMMB from NAM– WRF NMM from GFS– WRF ARW from RAP
• Limited physics diversity• Some clustering by core/IC
Parallel SREF (being tested)
• 16 km, 40 L -- 26 members• 2 dynamic cores / ICs
– NEMS/NMMB (ctl + 12 perts)– WRF ARW (ctl + 12 perts)– Even mix of NAM, GFS, RAP in
perts
• More physics diversity in NMMB & WRF ARW
• Reduced clustering by cores
25-26 Feb 2015 NCAR-FAA In-Flight Icing 9
Both versions of SREF have• ICs: a mix of GEFS and regional perturbations• LBCs: from different GEFS (global ensemble) members
Future Plans: Combine All Systems
10
Longer-range guidance at 00, 06, 12, 18 UTC• High Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF) = multiples of HRRR + NAMRR nests (60 h?)• Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) = multiples of RAP + NAM parent (84 h?)
Shorter-range guidance at more frequent intervals (≤ 1 h)• HREF Rapid Refresh (HREF-RR ) = HREF run at hourly intervals or less (18 h?)• SREF Rapid Refresh (SREF-RR) = SREF run at hourly intervals (24 h?)
25-26 Feb 2015 NCAR-FAA In-Flight Icing
RAP
HRRR
13 km
3 km
12 km
3 km
3 km
3 km 3 km
NAMRR
+ =
(? - forecastranges
are TBD)
Improved Aviation Products
25-26 Feb 2015 NCAR-FAA In-Flight Icing 11
• Aircraft icing (see next slide)• Flight restrictions (with AWC)
• Cloud ceiling heights • Visibilities
• Low-level wind shear• Turbulence• Precipitation type
(rain, snow, freezing rain, sleet)• Simulated radar structures of severe
local storms (with SPC; see 2 slides later)• Mode (discrete cells vs lines)• Cellular structure (supercellular or not)• Evolution
Relocatable 1.33-km Fire WX Nests
(Next slide shows a N-S cross section of clouds &
precipitation from a recent winter storm)
Cross Section from 1.33-km Fire WX Nest
25-26 Feb 2015 NCAR-FAA In-Flight Icing 12
>0°C
<0°C
(Fro
m Er
ic Al
igo)
CompositeReflectivity
• Rimed snow (2<RF<5)• Graupel (5<RF<20)• Sleet (RF>20)
(Temp)
NCAR-FAA In-Flight Icing 13
Old NAMMicrophysics
New Ferrier-Aligo Microphysics
Observed Reflectivity
>= 55 dBZ< 45 dBZ >= 55 dBZ
A BA B
A B A B A B
Improved Simulated Radar Reflectivity Structures of Severe Local Storms (NAM nests)
22 h Forecasts at 20 May 2013 - Moore, OK Tornado Outbreak
(From Eric Aligo)4-km NMMB Forecasts
Verti
cal C
ross
Sec
tions
A B
Hor
izon
tal M
aps
“W”
Weaker Storm Stronger Storm (Improved)
25-26 Feb 2015
14
NCEP Global Models• Recent Global Forecast System (GFS) upgrade
– ~13 km, 64 L, 0 to 10 days– ~33 km, 64 L, 11 to 16 days
• Upcoming Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) upgrade (~20 members)– ~27 km, 64 L, 0 to 8 days– ~33 km, 64L, 9 to 16 days
NCAR-FAA In-Flight Icing
15
Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS)
• Requirements– Provide skillful forecasts out to 30 days– Match the computational efficiency of the GFS– Include advanced data assimilation & physics– Be flexible to meet future demands
• Models under consideration– GFS Global Spectral Model (GSM @ NCEP)– Non-hydrostatic Multiscale Model (NMM @ NCEP) – Non-hydrostatic Flow Following Icosahedral Model (NIM @ ESRL) – Cubed-Sphere Finite Volume (HiRAM @ GFDL)– Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS @ NCAR)– Navy’s Non-hydrostatic Unified Model (NEPTUNE @ NRL)
NCAR-FAA In-Flight Icing
(Replace GFSIn 2019?)