ML No2_Sept3-7-2009

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Volume 24, Issue 2 September 3-7, 2009

COLLEGE FOOTBALLKICKOFF ISSUE!

Everything Youll Need For Opening Week!

Betcha Didnt Know Handicapping Article

Awesome Angle & Tremendous Trends

Incredible Stat of the Week

Analysis on Every Lined Game

Full Schedule with Opening Lines

w w w . P L A Y B O O K . c o m 1 . 8 0 0 . P L A Y B O O K

GET EVERY EDGE IMAGINABLEGET SMART GET PLAYBOOK

93% AWESOME ANGLE INSIDE!

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10 GOLDEN RULES OF A GOOD FOOTBALL HANDICAPPER

A Weekly Insight Into The Art Of Sports Handicapping

BETCHA DIDN'T KNOWby Marc Lawrence

View Marc's Awesome Angle Of The Weekat the PLAYBOOK.com website!

ATS W-L Record

Since 1993:

13-1(93%)

HERE WEGO AGAIN

PLAY AGAINST anycollege conference team

in Game One of the season

if they are playing with

triple revenge exact.

AWESOME ANGLE

OF THE WEEK

T R I V I A T E A S E R

Imagine knowing of a coach that is 18-1 SU in season opening gamesin his college football head-coaching career, including 16 straight wins ina row. Now imagine that same coach as an UNDERDOG on the opening

week college card. Who is this prime-time puppy?

For the Trivia Teaser answer, turn to page 4.

THIS WEEK'S AMAZING SITUATIONAL PLAY

Be sure to check out the COACHES LEAGUE for ATS records on everyCollege & NFL coach in 16 key situational roles. Simply log on to www.PLAYBOOK.com and click on the COACHES LEAGUE.

T R I V I A T E A S E R

Play Against:RUTGERS

A

question Im most commonly asked is,What does is really take to be a good

football handicapper? Well, for openers,there is no one thing that makes a person agood handicapper. Its a combination of factors,beginning first with putting as many edges inyour favor as possible. That, along with standingby a method of tried and true practices, can putyou into a position to win.

Allow me to share with you my 10 GOLDENRULES OF A GOOD FOOTBALL HANDICAPPER.Because they are constants, they remain thesame today as yesterday

1. ALWAYS RESPECT THE ODDSMAKERNever forget the oddsmaker is the enemy,and must be respected. Dont get drawn intoa battle of testosterone, making believe yourline is better than his. Hes paid to put a solidnumber on games, and does it exceptionally well.

Concentrate on handicapping the game withthe line he puts out, not with the line you feel itshould be. Let your ability, not your ego, be thedetermining factor in your success.

2. THE NAME OF THE GAME IS VALUE WITHOUT IT YOU CANT WINDo not settle on a game just because it handicaps.To be a good play it must have line value. Thisalso means not abusing good numbers (primarily3s and 7s). If you have a good underdog thatwas taking 3 points earlier in the week, donot take less on game day. There will alwaysbe another game, with value, down the road.Handicappers who take bad numbers becomebad handicappers.3. WINNING TEAMS FINDS WAYS TO WIN;

LOSING TEAMS FIND WAYS TO LOSEBy concentrating on winning teams, in the rightsituations, you increase your chances of winning.Thats because winning teams usually dont beatthemselves (turnovers, penalties, etc.). On the flipside, losing teams are losers because they makemore mistakes at crucial times in a game. Lookto play on winning teams as underdogs, and toplay against losing teams as favorites.

4. LEARN TO BECOME A CONTRARIANUnderstand that bookmakers make nice livings

by taking a majority of action from squares,or people who bet on popular public teams. Bylooking to fade these teams you not only putyourself in better position to win by gettingbetter odds, you also put yourself in a higher win-percentage bracket. If a game looks too obvious,pass.

5. STATISTCS DONT LIEStatistics report strengths and weaknesses inteams. Some teams may win games with poorstats but it is only a matter of time before theirpoor performance on the playing field catchesup with their win-loss record. By finding oneteams strength, and identifying another teamsweaknesses, you can get a feel for hiddenadvantages.

6. LETDOWNS AND LOOKAHEADS

Football teams are human and therefore playwith emotion. When one team comes off a hugeeffort, they can easily have a letdown the nextgame. Conversely, if they have a huge lookaheadgame up next (a primary rival, revenge from ahumiliating loss, etc.) they often times arent asfocused as they should be.

7. YOURE ONLY AS GOOD AS YOURINFORMATIONBecause the foundation for handicapping isputting as many edges in your favor as possible,its important to seek good, reliable information.In this age of the internet and instant electroniccommunication, there is a world of winninginformation out there waiting to be discovered.The more you learn, the better your chances ofsuccess.

8. TAKE INJURIES WITH A GRAIN OF SALTThe single largest factor in early line moves isinjuries. The Wise Guys live and die for them,unearthing every nook and cranny, ferretingthem out. When they get wind of a twisted kneeor a lingering hangnail, they jump on it like abank robber left alone overnight in a vault. Theproblem, though, is once you have had a chance

to play an injured game the line value is nolonger there (see Rule No. 2). Remember this:

every team has backup replacements waitingfor a chance to enter the starting lineup. Thisespecially holds true when it comes to runningbacks. As my good friend, the late RichardKlamian contended, its only when clusterinjuries hit that a team has a difficult timecarrying out its game plan. When it comes toinjuries, its caveat emptor buyer beware.

9. DEVELOP A STYLE AND PERFECT ITThere are three primary forms of handicappingthat exist today Fundamental, Statistical andTechnical. To live by one alone can be dangerousto your wealth. The best handicappers I knowincorporate all three of these aspects intotheir repertoire. I am primarily a technicalhandicapper. Its the area I attack the hardest,and with them most fervor. Learn to develop a

style most comfortable to your approach andperfect it. But be sure to incorporate the othertwo methods into your style. They, too, are edgesof information that need to be utilized.

10. BE WILLING TO GO THE EXTRA YARDIf you want to succeed you have to be willing topay a price. It doesnt matter which professionyoure in or what stage of life youre in, you mustabsolutely be willing to outwork your opponent ifyou wish to continue to succeed. By being willingto burn the midnight oil, staying healthy in bodyand soul, and remaining steadfast in your beliefs,you will succeed. Thats a guarantee.

There you have it, my ideas on what it takes tobe a successful handicapper. Oh yeah, perhapsthe most important principle of all is to practice

the GOLDEN RULE in life DO UNTO OTHERSAS YOU WOULD HAVE THEM DO UNTO YOU. Bydoing so you will learn to respect not only thecompetition, but, more importantly, yourself aswell. Good luck this football season.

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College Football Games

2-MINUTE

HANDICAP ATS = Against The Spread A = Away Con = Conference D = DogF = Favorite H = Home Rev = Revenge R = Road SU = Straight-Up

FOR A COMPLETE 2-MINUTE HANDICAP OF EVERY GAMEON TODAY'S CARD, VISIT www.PLAYBOOK.com

Thursday, September 3

S Carolina 5-1 in 1st dog role of season 4-1 weekdaysNC STATE SERIES: 4-1 L4 0-5 non con favs 5 < pts 0-3 Game One

Utah St 4-1 in 1st of BB RGs 0-5 weekdays 1-4-1 dogs 20 > ptsUTAH SERIES: 5-1-1 L7 6-2 HFs 20 > pts 7-3 weekday HG

Oregon 12-0 L12 as non con dogs 8-2 away bef BB HGsBOISE ST 7-1 weekday HG 7-1 favs 7 < pts 4-1 in 1st of BB HGs

Saturday, September 5

Navy 14-2 dogs 21 > pts 0-3 L3 vs Big 10 1-3 A Game OneOHIO ST 4-1 in 1st of BB HGs 1-4 non con favs 21 > pts

Akron 6-1 dogs 24 > pts 7-3 A vs non con opp 3-1 Game OnePENN ST 6-1 non con favs 24 > pts 5-1 DD favs in 1st of BB HGs

Nevada 0-3 bef week of rest 2-10 dogs 13 > pts 1-3 Game OneNOTRE DAME 0-3 H vs WAC opp 1-5 Game One 2-9 favs 13 > pts

Georgia 12-1 L13 away vs non con opp 5-2 RDs < 7 ptsOKLA ST 3-0 bef Houston 5-1 H vs non con opp 0-4 favs 7 < pts

Va Tech 11-3 dogs 7 < pts 0-2 Game One 1-3 vs SEC oppAlabama 5-1 bef BB HGs 4-1 non con favs 10 < pts 3-6 Game One

Maryland 1-5 Game One 1-4 A bef BB HGs 3-7 dogs 20 > pts

CALIFORNIA 3-0 w/ non con rev 5-1 Game One 4-1 H vs non con oppSan Jose St SERIES: 2-0 L2 7-2 Game One 2-5 RDs 24 > ptsUSC 8-3 H bef BB RGs 0-3 H Game One 1-4 H vs WAC opp

Lsu 4-1 non conf RFs 2 > pts 6-2 A bef BB HGsWASHINGTON 1-5 Game One 1-5 as DD HDs 2-6 in 1st of 3+ HGs

La-Monroe 4-0 dogs 28 > pts 1-4 L5 vs Big 12 opp 1-3 Game OneTEXAS 3-0-1 favs 40 > pts 5-1 Game One 9-3 H vs non con opp

Sunday, September 6

Ole Miss 2-9 RFs > 8 pts 1-4 favs Game One 2-7 A vs non con oppMEMPHIS SERIES: Host 6-2 10-2 HDs > 7 pts 2-6 H vs non con opp

Monday, September 7

Cincinnati SERIES: 5-2 L7 / Dog 6-1 11-0-1 L12 as dogs 7 < ptsRUTGERS 6-2 Game One 0-9 L9 as favs 7 < pts 1-4 favs w/ con rev

Miami Fla SERIES: Dog 7-1 7-1 Game One 4-1 dogs 6 < ptsFLORIDA ST 0-4 weekdays 2-7 favs Game One 2-7 con favs 6 < pts

TEAMS KEY FACTS, STATS & ATS TRENDS

(All results are preseason ATS Against The Spread and most recent,unless noted otherwise. Content contained in this report remains exclusive privateproperty of PLAYBOOK and the PLAYBOOK Database and may not be reused

or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.

Georgia is 34-3 SU against non-conferenceopposition, including 28-1 during the regular

season, under head coach Mark Richt.Be sure to read the INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEKeach week in the PLAYBOOK Football Newsletter!

INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK

SMARTBOX

NEW COLLEGE COACHES

Pair a new coach/lousy team against a good team (onewho won six or more games last year) in season openers andyou have the makings of a massacre, as these pairings findnew coach/lousy team combinations at 5-49 SU and 13-36-2 ATS. There are six such pairings to open the 2009 season(the new coach/lousy team listed first):

9/3 Utah State vs. Utah. 9/5 Miami Ohio vs. Kentucky,Syracuse vs. Minnesota and Washington vs. LSU. 9/12 Iowa State vs. Iowa andWyoming vs. Texas. Forewarned isforearmed!

New Head Coaches With Lousy Teamsvs. Good Teams Spell Disaster

New Head Coaches Are Moneyburners

For the most part, new coaches are brought into collegefootball programs that are in need of a transfusion. Much likea body that undergoes alterations during a lifestyle change ofdiet and exercise, it also takes a while before first year coachesturn a program around. In fact, all teams with 1st year headcoaches are 1307-1445-45, or 47.4% ATS, since 1990.

The groundwork is laid in the first year, when new coachesinstall new playbooks and game plans. Consequently, theseteams really struggle out of the gate. Thats confirmed by thefact that, since 1990:

1st Year College Football Head Coaches in Game One are a42.2% pointspread proposition, going 82-112-6 ATS.

New Head Coaches With Lousy TeamsAre Lousy In Season Openers

A lousy team is often defined as winning four or fewer gamesthe previous year. We agree with that statement because:

Four win (or less) teams, with a new 1st year head coach,are 34-59-5 ATS in their initial game scheduled. No less thanfourteen teams open the season in this role, eleven thisweek. They include: Army, Eastern Michigan, Miami Ohio,New Mexico, New Mexico State, Purdue, San Diego State,Syracuse, Toledo, Utah State and Washington this week,along with Iowa State, Mississippi State and Wyoming

next week.

COMING NEXT WEEK

THE WISE GUYS ARE BACK!Now in its 26th year, the WISE GUYS CONTEST is a $10,000 winners-take-all contest sponsored by JUST BET.com. Top SINGLE PLAY BESTBETS appear every week in the PLAYBOOK Football Newsletter!

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Remember: You Have A PLAYBOOK BEST BET Whenever Our Predicted Margin Of Victory Is 7 Or More Points In Favor Of Your Line

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2009 COLLEGE FOOTBALL - WEEK ONE

Thursday, September 3South Carolina over NC STATE by 1The 2009 season kicks off in Raleigh where well find out early if theWolfpack and ACC Freshman of the Year QB Russell Wilson are thereal deal. The linesmakers certainly think so as they have installed thehosts as a 4-point choice the first time State has carried the favoritetag since December of 2007 when they were blown out by Maryland,37-0. In fact, Tom OBriens crew was the only bowl team that was notfavored in any game last season! Their current 0-6 ATS run in theirfirst lined game of the season doesnt bode well against a Gamecocksquad that is 5-1 ATS in their initial underdog role of the season. Withthe Ol Ball Coach the answer to this weeks TRIVIA TEASER (seepage 2) and the Pack 0-5 ATS as non-conference favorites of 5 or lesspoints, well gladly grab the points in this false favorite special.

UTAH over Utah St by 20With the SMART BOX and series history clearly pushing us to side withthe hosts, youd think we would have no problem laying the threeTDs in this one-sided intrastate affair. Instead, lets get you ready forCollege Gameday Not so fast, my friends! For openers, our M.O.has always been to fade teams coming off unbeaten seasons. Andwhen you throw in the fact that they are facing their former defensivecoordinator, you can see our reluctance to jump in with both feet. Butwere not ready to tango just yet with the Aggies and their 1-4-1 ATSmark as dogs of 20 or more points. With the Utes dominating the seriesto the tune of 7-2-1 ATS, including the last seven by 16 or more points,were just going to play Switzerland and stay neutral in this one.

BOISE ST over Oregon by 3One of four opening week contests that finds a pair of Top 25 squads

looking to improve on their pre-season rankings. The Broncos upsetthe Ducks, 37-32, as 10.5-point dogs last season in Eugene and nowplay host on the blue rug where they are an ultra-comfortable 58-4SU. While the sagacious square (SMART BOX) reminds us about thetoils of 1st-year head coaches in debut games, former OC Chip Kellyhas been groomed for this position and former HC-turned-AD MikeBellotti has his footprint all over this program. Oregon averaged 30PPG on the road under Bellotti and that ties in nicely with the Smurfsmoney-burning 1-10-1 ATS proposition as chalk when they allow 27or more points. The visitors 12-0 ATS mark as regular season non-conference dogs has us all ducky over Thursday nights primetimeESPN affair. Its a take, as this one has FG written all over it.

ADDED GAMES

Friday, September 4Tulsa over TULANE by 14

You would think Tulsas 4-0 SU and ATS series mark, in which theyhave outscored the Green Wave, 181-49, would send us straight tothe window. Throw in the fact that Tulane is a Phyllis Diller-like 2-32ATS in their last 34 home games when they allow 35 or more pointsand you can see why we might not even pass go. But the truth ofthe matter is there are better games on the board. While theres nodenying the Golden Hurricane can light it up (44 PPG under ToddGraham), they did lose OC Gus Malzahn to Auburn and are breakingin a new QB in Jacon Bower. Yes, the hosts are just 5-13 ATS as doubledigit HDs, but well counter that with Tulsas 3-10-1 ATS log in its firslined game. Like the last pick in gym class, well be riding the bench

this afternoon in the Superdome.

NOTE: Home team is shown in ALL CAPS. PLAYBOOKselection appears in Bold. Should we pass or not have astrong opinion on a game, neither team will be bolded.

www.PLAYBOOK.com

NOTE: Next weeks PLAYBOOK (issue #3) will include a complete slate of

NFL writeups and will be available after 6:00 PM ET on Tuesday, 9/8/08.

Troy over BOWLING GREEN by 7This is one of two opening week Sun Belt-MAC tilts and if 2008 was anyindication, the southerners should have their way with their Midwestcounterparts. The Belters not only did it on the scoreboard, winningall three contests SU, but also fattened many a wallet by covering allthree as well. The Trojans of Troy have protected their backers wellin Game One posting a spotless 6-0 mark in their brief ATS historybut have come apart at the seams as non-conference favorites with asoft 0-6 record. The Bee Gees have been sweet music as home dogs,posting a brilliant 20-3 ATS mark but and theres always a but itsanother case of a 1st-year head coach taking over after a mediocreseason. With the Vegas boys posting a sharp 6.5-point number on thisone, well stay on the sidelines with clipboard in hand and just watchand learn.

BALL ST over North Texas by 14Another thrilling Sun Belt-MAC matchup but this one finds the menfrom MAC holding the upper hand, at least on the scoreboard. With

just three wins over the last two seasons (two of them coming againstWestern Kentucky), we cant expect the Lean Green to pull the outrightupset but we can expect them to stay inside the 17-point price tag2009 should find the Gonads in a transition period as HC Brady Hokebailed for the San Diego sun, QB Nate Davis jumped to the NFL andfour offensive linemen were lost to graduation. These are not thesame Cardinals that won 19 games over the last two seasons and theystill may be feeling the effects of the two season-ending losses (the laswith new HC Stan Parrish on the sidelines) that saw a terrific season godown in flames. Well play Dodge ball tonight with the visitors andlook for an offense that has posted two straight 4,000-yard seasons tocompensate for a defense that has been shredded for more than 5,000

yards over the same span. If you must, lets break some balls.

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Saturday, September 5

3#BEST BET

One cant blame Buckeye backers for circling September 12th ontheir calendars when the Men from Troy visit the Horseshoe, butthey must first take care of business on this opening Saturdayin September. Navy certainly doesnt have Ohio States pedigreeon the gridiron but they have never been and never will beconsidered pushovers. For starters, no non-BCS squad has moreSU wins (13) against BCS opposition than the Middies since2003. And they have been money in the bank when taking abig number. Theyre a bulletproof 17-3 ATS as road dogs of 20or more points since 1991 and in the 76 games they have playedsince the 2003 season, they have been on the short end of a 22 ormore point deficit only five times! 2nd-year HC Ken Niumataloloalso arrives with the nations most improved scoring defense. Asfor the Buckeyes, theyll need this one to get ready for that hugerematch against USC. With just four offensive starters returning,an unsettled offensive line and a pair of 1st-round defensivestarters lost to the NFL draft, expect Tressel to work out thekinks of his new pistol-offense and play this one close to his redvest. The Terrelle Pryor show is not quite ready for viewing at atheatre near you not yet, anyway.

OHIO STATE over Navyby 10

PENN ST over Akron by 24Like the Energizer Bunny, Joe Paterno just keeps going and going. In43 seasons as Penn States head coach, Joe Pa has won two nationalchampionships, 23 bowl games and leads Florida States Bobby Bowdenin the career-win category by one with a whopping 383 victories.Chances are good that the defending Big 10 champ Nittany Lions willnab no. 384 for Joe today over an Akron squad that collapsed downthe stretch last year to finish 5-7. But covering the current line of 24points may not be all that easy for the 8th-ranked Nits. Many of lastyears key performers are gone, including a trio of offensive linemen,several talented wide receivers and all four starting defensive backs. Bycontrast, Akron returns 15 starters (nine on offense) featuring QB ChrisJacqueman, his two leading wideouts and four big-eaters on the OL.Embattled head coach J.D. Brookhart (27-33 in five seasons) also hopesto add some zip to his squad with the addition of former Pittsburghand Stanford coach Walt Harris (assistant HC) and Miami Ohios ShaneMontgomery (OC). A trip to the archives tells us Akron owns a nifty7-1 ATS mark lately as dogs of 22 or more points, plus theyve coveredseven of the last ten against non-MAC opponents. Yes, Paternos Lionsare 40-11 SU the last four seasons but theyre just 26-22-1 ATS. The Zipsstop unit may have been a disaster last year (finished 90th overall intotal defense) but until superstar QB Daryll Clark gets in synch with hisnew pass receivers and blockers up front, were not comfortable layingthe big points with PSU. Slight lean to the Tiremakers here.

MICHIGAN overW Michigan by 8If you thought things were bad for Rich Rodriguez in his first yearwith the Maize-and-Blue after finishing with an unconceivable 3-9mark, you aint seen nothing yet. Not only has Rodriguez beenaccused of illegal workout violations by former and current players,

but then came the ultimate slap one of his players left for OhioState. OUCH! Thats like a Capulet falling for a Montague but wellleave that story for another day. Four home games to start the seasonand 11 offensive returning starters has Richie Rich looking for a quickSU start. But the Wolves have not been exactly Usain Bolt-like outof the ATS starting block, posting a tortoise-like 0-7 ATS log in theirfirst two games of the season over the last four years. Theyve alsodropped the ball against the Mighty MAC, going 0-5 ATS over thelast three seasons. With the Broncos 6-0 ATS in the first of back-to-back road games and 7-3 ATS when taking more than a TD versus Big10 opposition, well look for Richie to get the win but not the cover inthis Ann Arbor opener. A loss here might have Michigan fans asking,Oh Lloyd, wherefore art thou?

Connecticut over Ohio U by 10We pointed out this fact in the 2009 PLAYBOOK Football HandicapperYearbook but we think it bears repeating: Connecticut is one of onlythree teams to improve on both sides of the ball yet slip SU and ATS lastseason. Programs that fit this profile almost always reward their backer

the following year so well be looking to ride the Huskies whenevepossible this season. Dont let the loss of QB Tyler Lorenzen and BigEast Player of the Year RB Donald Brown scare you off here UConnhead coach Randy Edsall has built this team into a deep, disciplined unitthats cashed three of its last four tries as road chalk. On the other handOhio coach Frank Solich has seen the win totals drop at Athens over thepast two seasons and word is hell employ the seldom-successful twoheaded quarterback approach on offense in 2009. Granted, senior QBsTheo Scott and Boo Jackson are both talented players but we think anoffensive unit performs better when familiar with a single field generaleading the attack. Ohios dreadful 0-7 SU record in season openerscombined with a 1-6 SU mark versus Big East opposition only cementsour opinion. UConn has rolled to six straight season-opening wins by anaverage of 34.7 PPG under Edsalls guidance. The margin wont be thagreat today but the Huskies should bring home the cash.

NOTRE DAME over Nevada by 8After a 7-6 season that was preceded by a 3-9 campaign, CharlieFighting Irish have landed a spot the Top 25. Huh? It appears thatNBC (Notre Dame Broadcasting Company) has a say in the polls. Theymust also have a say in the lines as this one opened at 10 and hassince moved to two TDs. Keep the points coming because what thebig wigs DONT have a say in is the Irishs 0-3 ATS mark versus WACopposition or their 1-5 ATS record in season openers. Oh, and lets noforget about that little 2-9 dandy as favorites of 13 or more pointsStarting QB Jimmy Claussen says that Weis wont lose his job becauseof his play. But unfortunately for Charlie, Jimmy dont play no D andNevada arrives with some heavy offensive artillery, led by explosive QBColin Kaepernick, defending WAC rushing leader Vai Taua and formeWAC rush champion, Luke Lippincott (recently granted a 6th year oeligibility). The Double Deuce offense (200 yards rushing and 200

yards passing) accounted for over 500 YPG while averaging 6.1 YPRlast season and scored more than 30 points in ten of twelve gamesYou might want to check out this stat before stewing with the Irish: intheir last 50 games, Notre Dame is 8-41-1 ATS as a home favorite inwhich they allow more than 20 points. Sorry, Charlie, we dont wantany of that not against a foe that has eclipsed that mark in 42 of itlast 48 regular season contests.

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GAME OF THE WEEKPSETUPSET UPSETUPSETGeorgia over OKLAHOMA ST by 6

A clear-cut case of perception versus reality. Perception: Georgia,last years pre-season No. 1 team in the land, badly blew its shotat a BCS championship and will become an SEC also-ran in 2009after losing QB Matthew Stafford, RB Knowshon Moreno and WRMohamed Massaquoi to the NFL. Meanwhile, Oklahoma Statereturns all its firepower from the 2nd-most prolific offense inschool history Senior QB Zac Robinson, RB Kendall Hunter andWR Dez Bryant (combined for 38 TDs in 2008). Against a visitingsquad hampered by a green QB with just one career start and apoor-tackling defense that was the 4th most-penalized group inthe country, the Stillwater Cowboys should ride roughshod overthe outclassed Dawgs, right? Reality: Feast your eyes on thesenumbers from our PLAYBOOK.com database. Georgia has cashedin 12 of its last 13 road games versus non-SEC foes and the Bulldogsare a golden 25-4 SU in season openers since 1980. No such luckwith Okie State. The Pokes are 0-4 as chalk of 7 or less points, 1-3SU and ATS when tackling the SEC and head coach Mike Gundy isa money-burning 11-18-2 ATS as a dog or favorite of 7 or fewerpoints. Georgias Richt thinks 5th-year SR QB Joe Cox will raisesome eyebrows. When it comes to quarterback play, you needan accurate passer, a great decision-maker, and a guy who canlead. Joe really personifies all of those characteristics. Matchedagainst a Cowboys defense that was stampeded for 406 yards per

game last year, look for Georgia to play ball control offense andkeep OSUs gunslingers corralled on the sidelines. Sure, the Pokesfigure to be vastly improved in 2009 but laying almost a TD rightout of the gate to an opponent of this pedigree seems like toobig a leap to us especially when Georgia is the featured team inthis weeks INCREDIBLE STAT. How bout them Dawgs!

Kentuckyover Miami Ohio by 16 (Cincinnati, OH)If the season were a sprint, Rich Brooks crew would be holding goldas his Wildcats have raced out to 4-0 and 5-0 starts, respectively, ovethe last two seasons. Of course the majority of those wins have comeagainst non-conference opposition and this season opener shouldprove no different as we expect the RedHawks of Miami Ohio to falprey to the quick-starting Cats. The SEC visitors have had their wayagainst MAC foes, boasting a solid 13-1 SU mark over their last 14meetings. Theyve also performed admirably as road chalk, posting anifty 7-3, 70% record. With Miami Ohio a putrid 2-17-1 ATS in theilast 20 SU home losses and the SMART BOX saying a resounding no

to Haywoods Hawks, well don our derbies and look to go wire-towire with the Wildcats this afternoon in Oxford.

Oklahoma over Byu by 16 (Arlington, TX)This matchup takes place at the new Dallas Cowboys Stadium andCougar fans are already weighing the tradeoff of a glamour gameon the national stage against the very real possibility of openingthe season with a lopsided loss. Is there a risk that we arentundefeated, and we arent the BCS buster? asked BYU coach BroncoMendenhall. I think thats a very shortsighted view and my interesis in building the program over the long term. Its safe to say hesaccomplished that goal: with three consecutive 10+ win seasons inthe bank, Mendenhall has been eclipsed in total victories only byBoise State, Florida, Ohio State and Oklahoma over the same timespan. Meanwhile Oklahomas Bob Stoops has almost become a

victim of his own success. After beating Florida State for the nationachampionship in 2000, hes lost three BCS national championshipgames (to LSU, USC and Florida) and two other BCS bowls (to BoiseState and West Virginia). With Heisman-winning QB Sam Bradfordreturning to guide an offense that topped 50 points in nine of 14contests in 08 and nine starters back from a punishing defenseexpectations are again ridiculously high for the 3rd-ranked SoonersThe Cougars return some offensive weapons of their own in QB MaxHall, RB Harvey Unga and WR Dennis Pitta and with all the pressureweighing on Oklahoma here, wed bite taking three TDs with theMormons in Norman, let alone Arlington. The Cougars are 8-1 ATS inlidlifters and will catch Bradford working behind a rebuilt offensiveline here. Take it if you play it.

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Illinois over Missouri by 8 (St. Louis, MO)Wed love to snap the rubber band with Illinois in this spot as recentdouble revenge should have Zooks crooks clamoring for paybackagainst a green Missouri squad. Only the Illinis 3-8 SU and 2-9 ATSfailure in this series tempers our enthusiasm. The Illini do return eightstarters on the offensive side of the ball, including QB Juice Williams,and should have their way with a Mizzou group that limps in with fourreturning defensive starters and just one defensive lineman. Despitea 5-7 season, the boys from Champaign actually produced better statsthan their 2007 Rose Bowl season. With Gary Pinkels group gutted bygraduation losses, including 4-year starting QB Chase Daniel and star

WR Jeremy Maclin, well glance past Illinois 1-6 ATS mark in openinglined games and look for them to squeeze out an ATS cover.

4#BEST BET

Okay, stop snickering. We know Rice steamed its way to a superb10-3 SU mark in 2008 punctuated by a 38-14 massacre of WesternMichigan in the Texas Bowl and that the Blazers got ripped for429 yards per game en route to a dismal 4-8 campaign. But nowhear this. The Owls are without eight of eleven starters fromtheir 41-PPG offense, including all-CUSA QB Chase Clement (4119yards and 44 TDs in 2008) and skywalking WR Jarrett Dillard.Translation? Rice graduated 97% of its passing and 93% of its

total rushing yards! At the opposite end of the spectrum, UABreturns 18 starters with both the entire offensive and defensivelines back intact. And that Blazer defense we bad-mouthedearlier improved dramatically by seasons end: they gave up 129points and 1703 yards in their initial three games but slashedthose numbers to just 41 points and 848 yard in the closing trioof contests. Those other boys from Bama have also compiled asweet 20-5 ATS record in their last 25 SU lined home wins, vastlysuperior to Rices 2-12-2 ATS mark in its last 16 SU road losses.With the Owls facing back-to-back road games versus Texas Techand Oklahoma State after this one, its hard not to feel a bit sorryfor last years most-improved FBS team. But were in the businessof cashing winning tickets, not doling out sympathy. Step up tothe green-and-gold window here.

UAB over Rice by 16

WAKE FOREST over Baylor by 7Heres another one of those perception teams the Baylor Bears.Despite winning just four games in 2008, the Waco Bruins made hugestrides on both sides of the ball and are expected to improve basedon last years performance. A lot of the expectations are centered ondynamic QB Robert Griffin, the 08 Big 12 newcomer of the year, whodazzled opponents with 2,091 yards passing and 843 yards rushing.On defense, linebacker Joe Pawelek and safety Jordan Lake are two ofthe top players in the conference, and the Bears return 20 of 24 start-ers (counting the specialists), the most the program has brought backsince 1969. Even so, the feeling here is the line has been over-adjusteddue to Baylors perceived improvement. First, we cant overlook thefact that Art Briles team lost by 28 points as 11.5 home dogs to theDeacs in the 08 season opener. Second, while were on the subject oftalented quarterbacks, lets not dismiss Wakes Riley Skinner. Not only

is the senior the most accurate passer in ACC history, hes compiled asolid 12-3 SU and 9-5 ATS log against non-con opposition (8-1 ATS asa dog or favorite of 4 or less points). And third, the Demon Deaconscould easily have reached double-digit wins last year had they not suf-fered five losses by an average of 5 PPG. With Skinner coming off an11-for-11 performance in Decembers Eaglebank Bowl win over Navyand head coach Jim Grobe declaring, Were deeper at receiver thanweve ever been, expect Baylor to be on the receiving end of a SUand ATS season-opening beatdown.

Minnesota over SYRACUSE by 10Foldin Gophers collapsed like a Madoff investment last year, starting7-1 before finishing 7-6 despite a defense that improved 138 YPGfrom 2007 (3rd best in nation). Even with the defensive turnaroundTed Roof resigned and was replaced by Kevin Cosgrove (Nebraska) and

Ronnie Lee as co-defensive coordinators. OC Mike Dunbar was alsoshown the door in favor of Jedd Fisch, who spent the last eight yearin the NFL. Minnesota head coach Tim Brewster and his rebuilt staffwelcome back 18 returning starters, including QB Adam Weber (2,761yards and 15 TDs) and WR Eric Decker (most catches in the Big 10 lastyear). The return of RB Duane Bennett should also bolster a woefurushing attack that finished 104th in the nation. New Syracuse headman Doug Boney Marrone inherits the unpleasant task of erasing thestench of the Greg Robinson regime: four consecutive cellar-dwellingseasons and a combined Big East record of 3-25. Marrone is excitedover the potential of QB Greg Paulus but must first focus his attentionon the offensive line, a group he has described as awful. We thinka change of leadership will revive the moribund Orange programbut not here. The Cuse stands 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in recent seasonopeners and theyve cashed only twice in their last 10 tries as home

dogs. When the SMART BOX speaks, we listen.

E MICHIGAN over Army by 8Mirror, mirror on the wall, whos the baddest of them all? With120 teams participating in the FBS division, these two programs areperpetual bottom-feeders. Youll probably have a better chance ofgetting your hands on a Paris Hilton choir video than seeing eitherof these two programs crack the Top 100 anytime in the near futureAnd speaking of mirrors, the similarities between these two groupsare plenty. Neither has won more than four games in a season thidecade, including identical 3-9 marks in 2008, and both are countingon their fourth coach in 10 years to get things turned around. WhileEMUs Ron English returns eight starters on both sides of the ball including an offensive line that has combined to start 94 games thecupboard is bare for Armys Rich Ellerson as his Cadets are armed with

just ten returnees, including three on offense. Look for the morepotent Eagles to avenge last seasons 17-13 setback and hand theCadets their seventh straight season-opening SU and ATS loss.

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WISCONSIN over No Illinois by 13Its been an unseasonably cool summer in the nations midsectionbut the temperature under Wisconsin head coach Bret Bielema hasremained in the hot zone. After coasting to a 21-5 SU mark in hisfirst two seasons, Bielema had to watch his Badgers do some veryun-Wisconsin-like things in 2008. Wisky lost five of its first six Big 10contests and ended the season with a humiliating 42-13 blowout byFlorida State in the Champs Sports Bowl. The explanation was simple:the Badgers just couldnt finish. We had some really great players,but we didnt play hard all the time, says Wisconsin senior DE OBrienSchofield. We didnt play four quarters. We gave up at times.

Northern Illinois exhibited a similar M.O., dropping three of its lastfour regular season games before squeaking into a bowl game witha 6-6 record. The real eye-opener in DeKalb was the Huskie defense:rookie head coach Jerry Kill oversaw the 2nd-best overall defensiveimprovement in the country (138 YPG and 12.8 PPG). The NIU defenselost two-time MAC MVP Larry English to the NFL, but the defensiveline and linebacker corps own enough talent to offset the absence ofseven starters. Normally, wed jump all over a Wisconsin team thatscovered eight straight as a non-conference favorite of 24 or fewerpoints but this team played too many close-call games in 08 to belaying big points in a season opener (six games last year decided by 3or less points). The Huskies have barked their way to an 18-8 ATS markas double-digit dogs and could hang tight with a Wisconsin squadbeset with questions at quarterback. The Badgers are also missingstalwart RB P.J. Hill, who left early for the NFL, and six veterans who

combined for an amazing 237 career starts. Bielema will be hot underthe collar before this ones over. Well hitch a ride with the sled dogs.

PURDUE over Toledo by 11If youve checked out the SMART BOX on page 3, you know werepretty much handcuffed here since both head coaches check intotodays game as first-timers. Frankly, itll be somewhat strange to lookover at the Purdue sidelines and not see Joe Tiller, a fixture at WestLafayette for the previous twelve seasons. Taking their cue from oneof college footballs fastest-growing trends, the Boilermaker brasshired new coach Danny Hope to serve under Tiller for one seasonbefore stepping in as his replacement. Hell show up for work herewith only 11 returning starters and missing the services of departedQB Curtis Painter, the Big 10s passing leader in 08. Things look morepromising for Toledo head coach Tim Beckman: 18 starters are back,including 3-year starting QB Aaron Opelt and the entire offensiveline. However, the Rockets have fizzled their way to three consecutivelosing seasons and failed miserably as non-conference road dogs,going 3-10 ATS. Purdue owns a gaudy 24-3 SU record versus theMAC, with 20 of those wins coming by double-digit margins. But withtodays pointspread landing in the double-zone, were not left withmuch wiggle room to make a solid call. Since the digitally-remasteredBeatles catalog will be available for purchase on September 9th, wellheed the advice of the Fab Four and just let it be.

Stanford over WASHINGTON ST by 16Disgraced coach Greg Robinson may have been chased out of Syracusebut his legacy is alive and well in Pullman, Washington. EchoingRobinsons futility, second-year WSU head coach Paul Wulffs 2008debut was an absolute disaster: a 2-11 overall record, a defensethat was pounded for over 50 points in six games and eight losses inconference play by an average margin of 47 PPG. Yikes! Little wonderthen, that 5-7 Stanford who annihilated the Cougars 58-0 last yea is a 16-point road favorite in this season opener. Those are somescary numbers but these stats pertaining to the visitors are equallydisturbing. Stanford is a weak 2-10-1 as a road favorite of 9 or more

points and the Farmboys have won only 8 of their last 30 Pac 10 roadtrips with not a single win coming by more than 17 points. Howeverwe cant blame Wulff for Washington States shameful 1-6 ATS homerecord in this series. Can you sense our complete lack of interest?

AUBURN over Louisiana Tech by 6Youve gotta love working in America. Where else can you win 5 of24 games and get promoted? That certainly is the case for new Tigershead man Gene Chizik as he leaves Ames for SEC country. The defensiveminded Chizik will rely on former Tulsa OC Gus Malzahn to unveil anew spread offense in hopes of bolstering a pathetic Auburn offensewhich produced only 17 PPG in 2008. The hosts should find it toughin the early going as the Bulldogs of Louisiana Tech may actually havea little more bite than bark this season with seven defensive startersreturning from a team that ranked in the Top 10 nationally against

the run last year. The Techsters putrid 3-17 ATS log as non-conferenceroad dogs is a concern but with their entire O-line and D-line intactwell look for them to hand the Cats their seventh loss in their lastnine contests as home favorites versus non-conference opponentsAnd lets not forget this little ditty uncovered from our PLAYBOOKcom database: double-digit favorites who lost four or more games by6 or less points the previous year are just 4-8 ATS. Dooley dogs!

TEXAS A&M over New Mexico by 17The aforementioned Greg Robinson didnt own the copyright on uglylast season. New Texas A&M head coach Mike Sherman kicked off 2008with an Aggies team that boasted a 14-0 SU and 11-3 ATS record inlined home openers. Sixty minutes later, Shermans bunch had laid amammoth egg, losing 18-14 to lowly Arkansas State as 19-point homechalk. Needless to say, the humbled Aggies will look to make amendshere when they entertain New Mexico minus 11-year coach RockyLong (now on the staff at San Diego State). That makes new Lobocoach Mike Locksley a SMART BOX fade and a solid performance bythe hosts today could provide the fuel for a 4-0 start before OklahomaState comes calling on October 10th. New Mexicos pathetic 0-6-1 ATSmark in its first lined game and a 1-3-1 ATS ledger at Big 12 sites sounda lot like receiving orders to face the firing squad. With 16 startersready to erase last years painful memories, the Aggies should leavesome bloodied and beaten Lobos on the battlefield today.

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Alabama over Va Tech by 11 (Atlanta, GA)A showdown between two of the nations highest-paid coaches, thiscould very well be the days most intensely-fought, physically punishinggame. The 7th-ranked Hokies are a near-unanimous choice to ruleover the ACC this year while #5 Alabama is expected to once againchallenge mighty Florida for SEC supremacy. Despite the resurgentTides 12-0 regular season in 2008, Bama comes into this matchupriding a bitter 2-game losing streak. But Nick Sabans troops also fallinto one of our favorite opening-game categories, that of red-facedbowlers, after they laid 9.5 points to Utah in the Sugar Bowl and gotdismantled by a 31-17 score. Frank Beamers squad closed strong with

four straight wins, including a convincing 20-7 decision over Big Eastchamp Cincinnati in the Orange Bowl. But after losing star RB DarrenEvans to a season-ending knee injury just weeks ago, Tech will onceagain have to lean on its rock-ribbed defense to hang with the Tidehere (Hokie D has allowed an average of just 263 YPG since 2004,tops in the FBS). Should Alabama claim the outright win, VTs chancesfor a pointspread cover plummet dramatically: the Techsters are just6-15-1 ATS in their last 22 SU losses as an underdog. The neutral sitelocation at the Georgia Dome favors the Tide so well look for theNictator to reward Bama backers with their 10th ATS win in 15 tries.

Idaho over NEW MEXICO ST by 1A rare opening week conference fray finds the Vandals on the WAChighway as they travel to New Mexico State, a squad they have ownedin recent years. Can you imagine being knocked around by these sorry

Spuds? Idaho owns only nine wins over the past four seasons andthree have come at the hands of the equally sorry Aggies. In fact,theyve covered six of the last seven in this series and three of four onthis field. With the hosts a pathetic 6-18 ATS as conference chalk andnew HC DeWayne Walker a SMART BOX fade, well back the visitorswho are a surprising 3-0 SU and ATS on the road as favorites or dogsof 3 points or less. Look for Robb Akeys Vandals to steal one as thewrong team is favored tonight in Las Cruces.

UTEP over Buffalo by 10Heres a curious line. UTEP, a program in a steady 3-year decline underMike Price, installed as a TD favorite over a Buffalo squad thatsreached new heights under respected 4th-year head coach Turner Gill.The Bulls enjoyed their first winning season since the Ice Age last yearwith 8 wins (3 in overtime) and an appearance in the International

Bowl. However, in our opinion, such rapid improvement of a perennialdoormat makes them primetime play against material the followingseason. Buffalo will sorely miss veteran QB Drew Willy while theMiners welcome back rifle-armed QB QB Tommy Vittatoe, who passedfor 6375 yards and 58 TDs in two seasons. UTEP also returned its twomain RBs among 15 starters and 55 lettermen. Meanwhile, the Bullssuffered a crushing blow when star RB James Starks blew out a kneeand will be sidelined for the season. With the Bison dragging behind ahorrible 1-11 SU record in road openers, look for the Miners to extracttheir pound of flesh for last years season-opening 42-17 blowout atBuffalo.

CALIFORNIA over Maryland by 24You cant blame Terp fans for doing a little California Dreamin thesedays. Not only did the gridiron gang shock the Bears as 14-point homepups last season, Marylands hoopsters followed it up in March with a1st-round win over California in the NCAA Mens Basketball Tourney.Were big fans of the Mamas and the Papas and our trusty databasetells us that maybe all the leaves are brown and the sky is gray forRalphs turtles: they carry an 0-7 ATS log in their first lined game anda 1-6 ATS mark away versus an opponent with revenge. Couple thatwith Cals 5-1 record in season openers and their spotless 3-0 penchantfor non-conference revenge and you can see why covering this 3-TDspread could be a reality for Jeff Tedfords 12th-ranked Bears.

USC over San Jose St by 31Dick Tomey cant get no respect. Hes the 7th active winningest headcoach in the country and, with 15 starters returning, could have his bestteam in five years at San Jose. So why did the Spartans schedulemakedecide the Tominator should start the 2009 season against a pair of

teams that combined to go 25-1 SU last year? Cant answer that butwe do know this: USCs Pete Carroll is on the cusp of establishing anhonest-to-God DYNASTY in Los Angeles. In nine seasons, Carroll hasproduced 33 first-team All-Americans, 14 first-round draft picks andthree Heisman winners. USC has also finished in the AP Top 4 in sevenconsecutive seasons, playing in a BCS bowl each time, and are gunningfor their eighth straight Pac 10 title. True to form, the 4th-ranked Trojanlost 11 players to this years NFL draft, theyll be starting newcomeMatt Barkley at QB (the first non-redshirt freshman quarterback tostart a season opener for USC), and theyre still favored by 35 pointsover Tomeys Spartans! And, as you might expect, the homeboys ownthe majority of ATS edges here. USC has covered five of the last six anon-conference chalk of 24 or more points and cashed eight of elevenat the Coliseum before heading out on back-to-back road trips. Stillwe just cant get worked up about laying a ton of points with USC

when theyve got one of their biggest games of the season loomingon next weeks horizon, a showdown with #6 Ohio State in ColumbusHowever, that is by no means a recommendation to buck the Trojanhere. Last year they returned only 11 starters, suited up a new QBembarked on a coast-to-coast trip and still blistered Virginia, 52-7. Wesuggest you look elsewhere today.

ARIZONA over C Michigan by 3Arizonas Mike Stoops looks to build on the first winning season in his5-year reign but hell have to do it without his wife (going through adivorce) and his all-everything QB Willie Tuitama. The MVP of the 2008Las Vegas Bowl hit the graduation trail handing over the reins to a newtwo-headed QB tandem in SO Matt Scott and Michigan State transfeNick Foles. With RB Nic Grigsby, All-American TE Ron Gronkowski andall three WRs returning, Stoops should have plenty of weapons athis disposal. However, like having two wives, two-headed quarterbacksituations rarely work. Besides, its not the offense but the defensethat will be tested in the 2009 opener as QB Dan LeFevour and hisred-faced Chippewas invade Tucson. The Chips ended a promising2008 campaign with three straight losses, including a 24-21 bowl lossto FAU as 7-point favorites, placing them squarely in the red-facedbowler category. LeFevour, who has accounted for almost 12,000yards of total offense in his stellar career, has been a handicappersdelight. Hes rewarded his backers with a 25-12-2 ATS mark and wellook for more of the same tonight in this double-digit dog role. Andspeaking of big numbers, some teams just arent meant to play therole of double-digit chalk. The Wildcats are one of them as they carrya Rosie ODonnell-like 14-41 ATS weight in this situation. Grab MACFevour and chip away tonight with the visitors.

NOTE: Next weeks PLAYBOOK (issue #3) will include a complete slate of

NFL writeups and will be available after 6:00 PM ET on Tuesday, 9/8/08.

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5#BEST BET

Its back to business in the Bayou. After three straight 11-pluswin seasons including a 2007 National Championship, Les and hisfat cats were hit with a dose of reality. The Bengals five losseslast year were the most suffered by a defending champion since1943 and Miles will be looking to trade in his ESPN commercial

appearances for some primetime exposure. He gets it startedthis Saturday (10:30 ESPN) and he couldnt have hand-pickedan easier opponent. The Huskies do return 18 starters fromlast season but that group was a sledless 0-12 and now turnsto former USC OC Steve Sarkisian for help. Besides taking on agroup of Cats that are a prowling 36-9-4 ATS when they win SUas road favorites, Sarkisian must also tackle our SMART BOXand its 0-8 ATS manifest as home dogs of 15 or more points incoaching debuts. With the hosts just 4-16 ATS in their last 20 SUlosses as a home dog and 1-5 as DD HDs, well look for Miles toimprove on his stellar 16-6-1 mark as a non-conference favorite.With Florida and Alabama grabbing most of the SEC spotlight,expect Les and company to stay under the radar and quietlymake amends for last season as least until that October 10thshowdown with the Gators. Hey Les, Can you picture yourselfback in the National Spotlight? We can.

Lsu over WASHINGTON by 28

UCLA over San Diego St by 27Former UCLA golden boy Rick Neuheisels return to his alma materlast season did not go exactly as planned. The one-time Bruins QBand MVP of the 1983 Rose Bowl win over heavily-favored Illinois,Neuheisel saw his team stumble to a 4-8 finish, its lowest win totalsince 1999. Dont look for a repeat performance in 2009; UCLA isloaded on offense with nine returning starters including elusive RBKhalil Bell. And Neuheisel, who was critical of the Bruins quarterbackplay last year, replaced starter Kevin Craft with freshman phenomKevin Prince. New San Diego State head coach Brady Hoke traded thefrozen tundra of Muncie, Indiana for the sun and surf scene to try his

hand at rebuilding a pitiful Aztec program. Our friendly SMART BOXsays to avoid Bradys boys here and our database concurs: SDSU is just1-7 ATS in the last eight series meetings (1-6 at home) and 2-8 ATSoverall versus the PAC 10. UCLA weighs in with a hefty 13-2 ATS markin Game One, including a 12-1 record against non-conference foes.Can you spell B-L-O-W-O-U-T?

ADDED GAMESNEBRASKA over Fla Atlantic by 24

While theres probably a better chance of spotting a vestal virgin at aMarilyn Manson concert than seeing FAU pull off the outright upset(0-6 SU against this conference), the 20-point price tag doesnt look althat enticing after checking out a few gems from our PLAYBOOK.comdatabase. For starters, the visitors have been outscored 240-46 in theisix jousts with the Big 12. Even worse, HC Howie Longname has hadlittle-to-no bite as a dog of more than 17 points in his career, cashingonly 6 of 22 in this role, including 0-9 his last 9. While we do believeSR QB Rusty Smith is healthy and primed for a big season, his persona1-8-1 SU and ATS record as a non-conference double-digit dog tells usto check back during Sun Belt play. Huskers 6-1 ATS log in their firstlined game clinches it. Big Red brings home the Big Green.

CLEMSON over Middle Tenn St by 11With the Tigers eyeing a revenger against Georgia Tech next Thursdaythis looks like a good spot for Middle Tennessees Rick Stockstill toimprove on his 3-0 ATS mark against ACC foes. The 4th-year HC hascertainly held his own against this conference, winning one of thethree games SU and losing another by just 2 points. With 17 returningstarters, including 10 on offense, dont expect the Blue Raiders to beearly-season pushovers. Clemsons Dabo Swinney did a solid job (4-3after taking over for Tommy Bowden in mid-season but his debut lefa bad taste in the mouths of Tiger fans when Clemmie was handed a21-17 home loss by Georgia Tech. With Tech on deck, dont look for toomany wrinkles from the Clemson offense. They say a little dabll doya but this Dabos more interested in next weeks trip to Atlanta thancovering todays number. With nine former Clemson staff membercurrently residing on the MTSU sideline, look for the Tigers get the W

while the Raiders improve to 7-1 ATS as Game One dogs.

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TEXAS over UL-Monroe by 44Oh, the shark has such pretty teeth dear and he shows em, pearlywhite. Just a jack knife has macheath dear, and he keeps it way out ofsight. You can be sure ol Mackey Brown is going to keep plenty outof sight tonight in Austin with Texas Tech just around the corner andthe Red River Rivalry an arms distance away. Texas has really showntheir teeth as favorites of 40 or more points, posting a spotless 3-0ATS mark but the Warhawks have landed the money four out of fourtimes as dogs of 28 or more points. The visitors 1-4 ATS record versusBig 12 opposition and the Longhorns 5-1 ATS mark in season openershas us thinking hook em. But whatever Mackey wantsDo you

suppose our boy will do something rash?

TENNESSEE over W Kentucky by 35No one has ever accused new Tennessee head coach Lane Kiffin ofbeing subtle. Not long after the 34-year old Oakland Raiders exilewas tapped to replace ousted Volunteer icon Phil Fulmer, Kiffinbranded Gators coach Urban Meyer a cheater during a banquet atthe Knoxville Convention Center. Im gonna turn Florida in righthere in front of you, Kiffin told about 1,000 Volunteer fans whenhe accused Meyer of a recruiting violation by attempting to contact aplayer who was on an official visit to the UT campus. Guess what? Notonly was Kiffin wrong about Meyer committing the violation, he alsobroke SEC rules by publicly criticizing another coach and institution.But Kiffin rebounded recently to steer heavily recruited freshman RBBryce Brown clear of possible NCAA sanctions for taking funded tripsto college campuses while still in high school. Browns arrival shouldmeld nicely with seven returning offensive starters while Kiffin alsomanaged to lure his father, Monte, the veteran DC with Tampa Bayto oversee the defense in Knoxville. Western Kentucky looks severelyovermatched in this lidlifter: the Hilltoppers finished 2-10 last yearwhile going 0-2 SU and ATS versus the SEC (outscored 82-10). Yes, theVols are a less-than-encouraging 6-13 ATS lately when laying doublesand theyll be starting FIVE freshmen Saturday but Kiffin will likelywant to run it up big in his debut to impress the locals. Massacre inRocky Top.

Sunday, September 6

Monday, September 7

RUTGERS over Cincinnati by 1Despite an 11-3 season, Brian Kellys Bearcats are one of a handfuof Big East squads on the outside (of the Top 25) looking in. GregSchianos Scarlet Knights are another one of those Big East outsiderswhich makes this a crucial early season battle for national notoriety aswell as conference supremacy. Schiano will have to get it done for thefirst time since 2004 without 4-year starting QB Mike Teel and, besides

the AWESOME ANGLE demanding a play against Rutgers, our ownpowerful database points us in the visitors direction. The dog is a solid6-1 ATS in this series and Kelly has been golden in this opening week roleas hes a money-making 12-2-2 ATS when taking 12 or less points. Couplethat with the Knights 0-9 ATS log their last 9 as favorites of less than7 points and their 1-4 ATS mark as favorites with conference revengeand, suddenly, our Angle becomes even more awesome. Cincys 4-0ATS weekday mark has the hosts laboring all night. Grab the points.

Miami Fla over FLORIDA ST by 1The Canes brutal opening 4-game schedule finds them in the cozyconfines of Doak Campbell Stadium on Labor Day. Yes, we did say cozyconfines! After all, theyve won three of the last four SU and four othe last five ATS in Bobbys backyard. In fact, this has turned into adog series of late with the puppy fetching the bone in seven of the

last eight contests. With QBs leaving South Florida faster than dogsleaving Philly, the onus squarely falls on the shoulders of Jacory HarrisHarris has promised Miami fans a national championship as well as aHeisman Trophy and if his 30-0 high school record is any indicationof his ability, Randy Shannons program might very well be in goodhands. Recent infractions have ol Bobbys wins dropping quicker thana Heidi Fleiss call girl and his 2-7 ATS mark as conference favoriteof 6 or less points doesnt give us any confidence he will add to thewin total this week. Nor does his 2-7 ATS log versus a conferenceopponent with revenge. U know what to do.

Ole Miss over MEMPHIS by 10No doubt about it the Ole Miss Rebels are the media darlings of the2009 college football season. Mississippi was the only team to beatBCS Champ Florida last year (in The Swamp, no less!) and closed out

the season with a 6-game win streak that included a sound beating ofTexas Tech in the Cotton Bowl. Even so, Houston Nutt and companymanaged to raise the ire of the SEC after Ole Miss signed 37 playersin February, forcing conference leaders to pass a rule limiting footballteams to signing 28 players annually. The Ole Miss situation wasembarrassing for a lot of our coaches, commissioner Mike Slive said.I know Ole Miss plan was to steer those non-qualifiers to the localJUCOs in Mississippi. But it left a sour taste in a lot of coaches mouthswho stress that recruits are students first and athletes second.Ranked #10 in the initial USA Today coaches preseason poll, we thinkthe Rebels will leave an equally sour taste among sports bettors whohave fallen prey to all the hype surrounding this years edition. True,14 starters, including QB Jevan Snead, are back but Ole Miss will nolonger be in a position to ambush unsuspecting foes. The Rebs arealso running headlong into a wall of bad numbers in this seasonopener. Theyre a sorry 2-9 ATS as road chalk of more than 8 points,

2-8 ATS as double-digit favorites away from Oxford, 1-4 ATS as GameOne favs and 2-7 ATS versus non-conference foes in enemy territory.Tommy Wests home dog Tigers own much better pointspread statsfor this matchup. Memphis is 12-4 ATS as double-digit non-con HDsand the series host has covered six of the last eight meetings. TheTigers also benefit from the NCAAs decision to grant a 6th year ofeligibility to QB Tommy Hudgens. With coach West checking in at 8-2ATS when taking 7 or more points at the Liberty Bowl, well count onthe striped cats to take this one down to the wire.

COLORADO over Colorado St by 7The Buffs have owned the neighborhood since this rivalry began in1983 with a 16-5 SU mark but its been the Rams who have collectedthe rent with a 12-8-1 ATS log. And if 2nd-year coach Steve Fairchildcontinues to put his stamp on this Colorado State program, it appearsthe boys from Ft. Collins may be moving on up. Things are alreadylooking better for Fairchild and company as his Rams won as manygames in 2008 as they did in the previous two seasons (7) capped by abowl win. He also has the luxury of an offensive line that has combinedto start 118 games the most in the FBS this season. Colorado, on theother hand, has taken a step back since the arrival of Dan Hawkins

Hawkins, who went 53-11 in his five years at Boise State, has only beenable to muster 13 wins in 37 tries at Boulder. With the visitors on acurrent 6-2 ATS run in their first road game of the season (including2-0 on this field) and the hosts 2-10 ATS as non-conference home chalkof less than 20 points, well grab the elevator going up with Fairchildand the improving Rams.


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NAVY12:00 PMOHIO ST ESPN

AKRON12:00 PMPENN ST

145146

147148

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 7

CINCINATI4:00 PMRUTGERS ESPN

MIAMI FLA8:00 PMFLORIDA ST ESPN

209210

211212

FLA ATLANTIC7:00 PM TIME CHANGENEBRASKA

MID TENN ST6:00 PM TIME CHANGECLEMSON

UL-MONROE7:00 PMTEXAS

W KENTUCKY12:30 PM TIME CHANGETENNESSEE

197198

199200

201202

203204

ADDED GAMES

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 5

FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 4

TULSA8:00 PMTULANE ESPN

143144

ADDED GAMES

2009 COLLEGE FOOTBALL - WEEK ONE

All times listed are Eastern Standard Time Games in Official International Rotation sequence Dates & times subject to change

Listed next to the games below are two entries: OL is the opening line on the contest and PB is the PLAYBOOK margin on the game.You have a PLAYBOOK BEST BET whenever our predicted margin of victory is 7 or more points in favor of your line. Remember, opening lines

are subject to change during the week so always check YOUR CURRENT LINE against the PLAYBOOK line to determine a play.

OL PB

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 3

S CAROLINA7:00 PMNC STATE ESPN

UTAH ST9:00 PMUTAH MTN

OREGON10:15 PMBOISE ST ESPN

127128

129130

131132

W MICHIGAN3:30 PM TIME CHANGEMICHIGAN ABC

CONNECTICUT7:00 PM TIME CHANGEOHIO U

NEVADA3:30 PMNOTRE DAME NBC

GEORGIA3:30 PMOKLAHOMA ST ABC

KENTUCKY@Cincinnati12:00 PM TIME CHANGEMIAMI OHIO ESPNU

BYU @Arlington, TX7:00 PM TIME CHANGEOKLAHOMA ESPN

MISSOURI3:30 PM (St. Louis, MO)ILLINOIS ESPN

RICE4:00 PMUAB

BAYLOR3:30 PM TIME CHANGEWAKE FOREST

MINNESOTA12:00 PM TIME CHANGESYRACUSE ESPN2

ARMY7:00 PME MICHIGAN

NO ILLINOIS7:00 PMWISCONSIN BIG 10

149150

151152

153154

155156

157158

159160

161162

163164

165166

167168

169170

171172

OL PB

3

1

TOLEDO12:00 PM TIME CHANGEPURDUE

STANFORD6:00 PM TIME CHANGEWASHINGTON ST

LOUISIANA TECH7:00 PM TIME CHANGEAUBURN ESPNU

NEW MEXICO7:00 PM TIME CHANGETEXAS A&M

VA TECH8:00 PM (Georgia Dome)ALABAMA ABC

IDAHO8:00 PMNEW MEXICO ST

BUFFALO9:00 PMUTEP CBSC

MARYLAND10:00 PMCALIFORNIA ESPN2

SAN JOSE ST3:30 PM TIME CHANGEUSC

C MICHIGAN10:00 PMARIZONA

SAN DIEGO ST7:30 PM TIME CHANGEUCLA

LSU10:30 PMWASHINGTON ESPN

173174

175176

177178

179180

181182

183184

185186

187188

189190

191192

193194

195196

OL PB OL PB

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 6

OLE MISS3:30 PMMEMPHIS ESPN

COLORADO ST7:00 PMCOLORADO

205206

207208

21

5

6

14

17

12

4

14

6

14

21

7

4

1

7

5

16

12

16

13

13

6

3

6

21

34

12

16

20

19

40

30

17

11

6

5

20

3

7

14

14

#

#

#

8

10

8

6

16

16

8

16

7

10

8

13

11

16

6

17

11

10

24

31

3

10

28

24

11

44

35

7

1

1

TROY7:00 PMBOWLING GREEN

NORTH TEXAS7:30 PM TIME CHANGEBALL ST ESPNU

133134

135136

17 27

FREE PICKS:1.714.228.6272

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ML No2_Sept3-7-2009