““Mitigating greenhouse gas Mitigating greenhouse gas

emissions from energy supply emissions from energy supply in South Africa”in South Africa”

Mark Howells

Energy Research Institute

IntroductionIntroduction

The ERI – aims and directionGHG Inventories – the starting pointBaselines – what the players seeIntegrated Energy Modelling – the big pic. Mitigation – how to reduce the emissionsIndustrial projects – Major players in SATowards CDM in SA

The Energy Research InstituteThe Energy Research Institute~ ~ Aims and Direction ~Aims and Direction ~

Education Capacity building Promote policy

discussion – NOT write it

Useful research,– Government– Industry

The Energy Research InstituteThe Energy Research Institute ~ ~ GHG work ~ GHG work ~

InventoriesInventories BaselinesBaselines MitigationMitigation Country studies, UNFCC, Country studies, UNFCC,

IPCC, MSc’s & PhD’sIPCC, MSc’s & PhD’s IEPIEP Case studiesCase studies Information Information and CDM applicationsand CDM applications

The Energy Research InstituteThe Energy Research Institute ~ ~ GHG work ~GHG work ~

Greenhouse Gas InventoriesGreenhouse Gas Inventories

Snapshot Complete energy sector ’83-’93 Inventory and

1990 & 94 for UNFCCC Problems:

– Consumption data– IPCC data– NEEDS Urgent attention NEEDS Urgent attention

$20 Billion dollars.$20 Billion dollars.

Integrated Energy ModellingIntegrated Energy Modelling~ The big picture ~~ The big picture ~

Energy use & GHGEnergy use & GHG Need the big pictureNeed the big picture National economy for National economy for

1995-20251995-2025 No IEP = problems!No IEP = problems! LEAP 2000:China etc.LEAP 2000:China etc. MARKAL: IEAMARKAL: IEA ERI is using both …ERI is using both … What to do, how, where & What to do, how, where &

when …when …

Baselines for the Energy Baselines for the Energy Sector: Sector: BUSINESS AS USUALBUSINESS AS USUAL

Modelled for 1995-2020

Stakeholder input Business as usual CDM funds Mitigation options Need Integrated

Energy Planning tools

Mitigating GHG emissions Mitigating GHG emissions from the energy supply sector…from the energy supply sector…

ElectricityElectricityLiquid FuelsLiquid FuelsCoalCoalReducing Reducing demanddemand

Mitigation OptionsMitigation Options~ Electricity ~~ Electricity ~

Clean CoalClean Coal Renewables: Renewables:

Wind and SolarWind and Solar Imported hydroImported hydro

GasGas NuclearNuclear

PBMRPBMR ConventionalConventional

South African Power South African Power GenerationGeneration

SA will require new generation capacity by about 2008 (assuming present modest increase in demand)

SA now generates the world’s cheapest electricity

The SA economy is energy intensive and depends on cheap energy (e.g. aluminium smelting)

South Africa Electricity South Africa Electricity CapacityCapacity

Operating Capacity, MWe (1999): Total: 43,142 (100%) Coal: 38,287 (88.7%) Nuclear: 1840 (4.3%) Storage: 1580 (3.7%) Hydro: 668 (1.5%) Gas: 662 (1.5%) Bagasse: 105 (0.2%)

Coal GenerationCoal Generation Advantages:

– Reliable, with proven technology

– Large reserves of coal in the world

– Competive in price– Employment

Disadvantages:– Carbon dioxide emissions– Coal is expensive to transport– Quite high capital costs– High loss of life from mining

accidents

Future of Coal GenerationFuture of Coal Generation

Supercritical: already happening

IGCC: likely but limited Fluidised Bed: limited Combined Heat and

Power (CHP): uncertain under deregulation

Currently most economic plan

Generation from GasGeneration from Gas Advantages

– High thermal efficiency (CCGT)– Low capital costs– Quick construction time– Fairly clean

Disadvantages– Uncertainty about gas prices in

future– Gas has other uses (e.g.

production of liquid fuels)– Greenhouse emissions– Loss of currency

Future of Gas GenerationFuture of Gas Generation

Seems likely to increase relative to other energy sources but there is much uncertainty over future gas prices

SA Future Generation: GasSA Future Generation: Gas Gasfields in SA & neighbours are small

– Mossgas: 17 bcm (663 PJ)– CBM, Waterberg: 90 bcm (3393 PJ)– Kudu, Namibia: 85-250 bcm (3315-9750 PJ)– Pande, Mozambique: 40-80 bcm (1560-3120 PJ)– (SA’s total energy demand in 1995: 4426 PJ)

Piping gas from Kudu to Cape Town would be expensive

Gas from Congo? Better things to do with gas (feedstock for chemical &

liquid fuel production, heating, steelworks etc) Limited potential for large scale electricity generation

Nuclear Power GenerationNuclear Power Generation Advantages

– Reliable: safety record in the West

– no greenhouse emissions in operation

– Fuel can be cheaply transported (very small in mass)

– Competive total costs Disadvantages

– High capital costs– Bad public perceptions

(irrational fears about safety, radiation, weapons and waste)

– Therefore political problems

Future of Nuclear GenerationFuture of Nuclear Generation Move to simpler designs with Move to simpler designs with

passive safety, offering lower passive safety, offering lower capital costs, quicker capital costs, quicker construction and easier construction and easier licensing.licensing.

Perhaps move to smaller units, Perhaps move to smaller units, offering more speed and offering more speed and flexibility in planning capacity.flexibility in planning capacity.

Final waste disposal sites must Final waste disposal sites must be approvedbe approved

In the long term: breeder In the long term: breeder reactors, thorium fuelreactors, thorium fuel

HydroelectricityHydroelectricity Advantages

– Reliable, with proven technology

– Economically competitive– Quite clean

Disadvantages– Dams are expensive, with

long construction times– Environmental problems

(silting, slaination, upsetting natural flows, displacing people, methane from rotting vegetation)

– Difficult to find and approve new sites

Future of HydroelectricityFuture of Hydroelectricity

It will be increasingly difficult to find and approve new sites in most of the world

But there is enormous potential in central Africa

Imported HydroelectricityImported Hydroelectricity Additional Hydro Potential in

Central Africa– Zambezi: 6000 MWe– Inga Falls (Congo): 50,000 –

100,000 MWe– Other: 1200 Mwe

Inga could be run of river (no dam)

Huge potential but political problems and questions of security of supply

Wind and Solar PowerWind and Solar Power Advantages

– Clean– No greenhouse emissions– Free energy

Disadvantages– Expensive electricity– Dilute, intermittent,

unpredictable energy– Large land area required– Only certain sites are

suitable– Environmental problems for

wind (eyesore, kills birds)

Future Wind & Solar Future Wind & Solar GenerationGeneration

Unlikely to provide more than a small fraction of total electricity

Growth of wind & solar generation will depend on government policy and subsidies

SA Future Generation: WindSA Future Generation: Wind

Suitable wind conditions near the coast

Eskom and perhaps Darling Wind Farm will be installing wind turbines

High cost Large land use Intermittent supply Good for supply to small, remote

communities But unlikely to supply more than a

small fraction of SA’s electricity demand

SA Future Generation: SolarSA Future Generation: Solar Very good solar conditions in

Northern Cape (6 kWh / m2 / 24 hours)

Could be solar thermal or photovoltaic

High costs Intermittent energy, requiring

storage Large land usage Good for supply to small, remote

communities But unlikely to supply more than

a small fraction of SA’s electricity demand

SA Energy Reserves (without Breeder SA Energy Reserves (without Breeder Reactors)Reactors)

(excluding renewable energy)(excluding renewable energy)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

EJ

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

EJSA Reserves (with breeder reactors)SA Reserves (with breeder reactors)

(excluding renewable energy)(excluding renewable energy)

Mitigation options: OilMitigation options: Oil

Import finished product

Shift coal-oil to gas-oil

Improve storage of crude

Mitigation options: CoalMitigation options: Coal

More efficient mining Combustion of methane Extraction of methane Prevention of spontaneous

combustion

Mitigation options: Reducing Mitigation options: Reducing energy demandenergy demand

Energy Efficiency in industry– Can create

infrastructure– Best short term option– Industry understands

market mechanisms

Current Industrial ProjectsCurrent Industrial Projects

Applications for CDM Link between GHG’s

and energy management

Extension of energy efficiency work

Towards anTowards an ‘enabling environment’ ‘enabling environment’

w.r.t. energy managementw.r.t. energy management Case studies Industry buy-in Linkages with national

energy efficiency programs

Assessment of industrial potential

Industrial Energy Efficiency Association

In conclusion:In conclusion:Some warningsSome warnings

CDM may be used to subsidise Annex 1 economies

Trade implications SA could be left behind

with respect to CDM funds Much current data is very

questionable Fuel costs, such as gas

prices must be viewed with caution.