ABC Company, Inc.Estimated Statement of OperationsFor The Years Ended December 31, 2010. 2011, 2012, and 2013

2010 2011 2012 2013 2010 2011 2012 2013

Revenue:

Installation Revenue 450$ 3,825$ 21,038$ 73,633$ 77.1% 84.3% 82.3% 80.6%

Non-Installation Revenue

Service Fees 89$ 623$ 4,361$ 17,444$ 15.2% 13.7% 17.1% 19.1%

Other Non-Installation Revenue 45$ 90$ 158$ 237$ 7.7% 2.0% 0.6% 0.3%

Total Revenue: 584$ 4,538$ 25,557$ 91,314$ 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Direct Costs:

Installation Costs 338$ 2,678$ 12,623$ 36,817$ 57.9% 59.0% 49.4% 40.3%

Non-Installation Costs 38$ 193$ 1,175$ 4,420$ 6.5% 4.3% 4.6% 4.8%

Direct Costs: 376$ 2,871$ 13,798$ 41,237$ 64.4% 63.3% 54.0% 45.2%

Other Cost of Services 88$ 567$ 2,556$ 6,849$ 15.1% 12.5% 10.0% 7.5%

Gross Margin ($) 120$ 1,100$ 9,203$ 43,228$ 20.5% 24.2% 36.0% 47.3%

Gross Margin (%) 20.5% 24.2% 36.0% 47.3%

Operating Expenses:

Sales 292$ 1,588$ 6,389$ 18,263$ 50.0% 35.0% 25.0% 20.0%

Marketing 263$ 1,361$ 5,111$ 13,697$ 45.0% 30.0% 20.0% 15.0%

Research & Development 175$ 998$ 2,811$ 8,218$ 30.0% 22.0% 11.0% 9.0%

General & Administration 44$ 295$ 1,533$ 4,566$ 7.5% 6.5% 6.0% 5.0%

Total Operating Expenses: 774$ 4,242$ 15,844$ 44,744$ 132.5% 93.5% 62.0% 49.0%

EBITDA (654)$ (3,142)$ (6,641)$ (1,516)$ -112.0% -69.2% -26.0% -1.7%

Other (Revenue) & Expenses:

Interest 80$ 156$ 32$ 80$ 13.7% 3.4% 0.1% 0.1%

Taxes 8$ 9$ 11$ 15$ 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%

Depreciation & Amortization 13$ 67$ 268$ 874$ 2.2% 1.5% 1.0% 1.0%

Total Other (Revenue) & Expenses 101$ 232$ 311$ 969$ 17.3% 5.1% 1.2% 1.1%

Net Income (Loss) (755)$ (3,374)$ (6,952)$ (2,485)$ -129.3% -74.3% -27.2% -2.7%

Statement Notes:

Revenue

Market 1 43$ 2,320$ 12,205$ 46,232$ 7.4% 51.1% 47.8% 50.6%

Market 2 230$ 1,201$ 7,652$ 26,450$ 39.4% 26.5% 29.9% 29.0%

Market 3 256$ 932$ 3,250$ 12,658$ 43.8% 20.5% 12.7% 13.9%

Market 4 55$ 85$ 2,450$ 5,974$ 9.4% 1.9% 9.6% 6.5%

Total Revenue 584$ 4,538$ 25,557$ 91,314$

Headcount

Existing 13.00$ 18.00$ 61.00$ 298.00$ New Hires 5.00$ 43.00$ 237.00$ 830.00$ Total Headcount 18.00$ 61.00$ 298.00$ 1,128.00$

Capital Expenditures 126.00$ 424.00$ 1,584.00$ 4,474.00$

Dollars (000's omitted) Percent (%) of Revenue

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Rule #1: If you cannot read the

financial statement from two feet away the font is

too small

(i.e. there are too many details)

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ABC Company, Inc.Projected Statement of OperationsFor The Years Ended December 31, 2010. 2011, 2012, and 2013

2010 2011 2012 2013

Revenue:

Market 1 43.00$ 2,320.00$ 12,205.00$ 46,232.00$

Market 2 230.00$ 1,201.00$ 7,652.00$ 26,450.00$

Market 3 256.00$ 932.00$ 3,250.00$ 12,658.00$

Market 4 55.00$ 85.00$ 2,450.00$ 5,974.00$

Total Revenue 584.00$ 4,538.00$ 25,557.00$ 91,314.00$

Gross Margin ($) 120.00$ 1,100.00$ 9,203.00$ 43,228.00$

Gross Margin (%) 20.5% 24.2% 36.0% 47.3%

Operating Expenses:

Sales & Marketing 555.00$ 2,949.00$ 11,500.00$ 31,960.00$

Research & Development 175.00$ 998.00$ 2,811.00$ 8,218.00$

General & Administration 44.00$ 295.00$ 1,533.00$ 4,566.00$

Total Operating Expenses: 774.00$ 4,242.00$ 15,844.00$ 44,744.00$

Other Expense/(Income) 101.00$ 232.00$ 311.00$ 969.00$

Net Income (Loss) (755.00)$ (3,374.00)$ (6,952.00)$ (2,485.00)$

Statement Notes:Headcount

Existing 13.00$ 18.00$ 61.00$ 298.00$ New Hires 5.00$ 43.00$ 237.00$ 830.00$ Total Headcount 18.00$ 61.00$ 298.00$ 1,128.00$

Capital Expenditures 126.00$ 424.00$ 1,584.00$ 4,474.00$

Dollars (000's omitted)

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Rule #2: Pennies are only for accounting auditors

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ABC Company, Inc.Estimated Statement of OperationsFor The Years Ended December 31, 2010. 2011, 2012, and 2013

2010 2011 2012 2013

Revenue:

Market 1 43$ 2,320$ 12,205$ 46,232$

Market 2 230$ 1,201$ 7,652$ 26,450$

Market 3 256$ 932$ 3,250$ 12,658$

Market 4 55$ 85$ 2,450$ 5,974$

Total Revenue 584$ 4,538$ 25,557$ 91,314$

Gross Margin ($) 120$ 1,100$ 9,203$ 43,228$

Gross Margin (%) 20.5% 24.2% 36.0% 47.3%

Operating Expenses:

Sales & Marketing 555$ 2,949$ 11,500$ 31,960$

Research & Development 175$ 998$ 2,811$ 8,218$

General & Administration 44$ 295$ 1,533$ 4,566$

Total Operating Expenses: 774$ 4,242$ 15,844$ 44,744$

Other Expense/(Income) 101$ 232$ 311$ 969$

Net Income (Loss) (755)$ (3,374)$ (6,952)$ (2,485)$

Statement Notes:Headcount

Existing 13$ 18$ 61$ 298$ New Hires 5$ 43$ 237$ 830$ Total Headcount 18$ 61$ 298$ 1,128$

Capital Expenditures 126$ 424$ 1,584$ 4,474$

Dollars (000's omitted)

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Rule #3: Use $ (dollar signs) on the

first and last row only.

Unless, of course, you are mixing rows of $ and %, etc.

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FORMAT CREDIBILITY

The presentation format does not interfere with (or create

noise for) the reader

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ABC Company, Inc.Projected Statement of OperationsFor The Years Ended December 31, 2010 through 2013

Revenue:

Market 1 43$ 2,320$ 12,205$ 46,232$

Market 2 230 1201 7652 26450

Market 3 256 932 3250 12658

Market 4 55 85 2450 5974

Total Revenue 584 4538 25557 91314

Gross Margin ($) 120 1100 9203 43228

Gross Margin (%) 20.5% 24.2% 36.0% 47.3%

Operating Expenses:

Sales & Marketing 555 2949 11500 31960

Research & Development 175 998 2811 8218

General & Administration 44 295 1533 4566

Total Operating Expenses: 774 4242 15844 44744

Other Expense/(Income) 101 232 311 969

Net Income (Loss) (755)$ (3,374)$ (6,952)$ (2,485)$

Statement Notes:Headcount

Existing 13 18 61 298 New Hires 5 43 237 830 Total Headcount 18 61 298 1,128

Capital Expenditures 126$ 424$ 1,584$ 4,474$

Dollars

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Rule #4: Use column headings that

make sense

(and there are violators of this in the room)

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Rule #5: Numbers with thousands or millions must have commas

This: 54,556Not this: 54556

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ABC Company, Inc.Projected Statement of OperationsFor The Years Ended December 31, 2010 through 2013

2010 2011 2012 2013

Revenue:Market 1 43$ 2,320$ 12,205$ 46,232$

Market 2 230 1,201 7,652 26,450

Market 3 256 932 3,250 12,658

Market 4 55 85 2,450 5,974

Total Revenue 584 4,538 25,557 91,314

Gross Margin ($) 120 1,100 9,203 43,228

Gross Margin (%) 20.5% 24.2% 36.0% 47.3%

Operating Expenses:

Sales & Marketing 555 2,949 11,500 31,960

Research & Development 175 998 2,811 8,218

General & Administration 44 295 1,533 4,566

Total Operating Expenses: 774 4,242 15,844 44,744

Other Expense/(Income) 101 232 311 969

Net Income (Loss) (755)$ (3,374)$ (6,952)$ (2,485)$

Statement Notes:

Headcount

Exist ing 13 18 61 298 New Hires 5 43 237 830

Tot al Headcount 18 61 298 1,128

Capital Expenditures 126$ 424$ 1,584$ 4,474$

Dollars

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Rule #6:

Don’t mix fonts

Or font size……

And do not use a silly fontCOPYRIGHT © 2010

Rule #7: Text is left justified

Numbers are right justified

Violators confuse the reader

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Rule #8:Do not overdo color

andDo not highlight in dark colors

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Spot color

Rule #9:Round your numbers to the

nearest thousand for presentations

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Thank you Joe Caruso for this suggestion

Rule #10:

Spelle Check

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And do not tell me you relied on Microsoft…….

Financial Forecast in your Slide deck is a Marketing Effort!

(Huh)?

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• Provide cost-effective outsourced (part-time) CFO support

• Clients range from pre-revenue startups to later stage privately held companies

• Goal = provide strategic financial advice and handle all accounting/ financial matters so the entrepreneurs can focus on driving the business

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David Fogel, CPA Serial entrepreneurial CFO Principal of Swifton CFOs LLC (circa 2009) Experience with high tech companies ranging from biotech

to telecom services to healthcare IT to social media to… Adjunct Professor of Finance – WPI Judge & Mentor: Sponsor: Associations:

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Developing The Financial Forecast

1. Defined

2. What about the assumptions?

3. Creating the sales forecast

4. Spreading the numbers

5. Creating the statements

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Ty DancoMember, Mass Medical AngelsMember, North Country Angels

"I'll never believe your revenue numbers anyway, but I sure want to scrutinize your

assumptions and expenses!"

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Developing The Financial Forecast

1.What are financial projections?

Collection of statements that present your business in numbers (IS, BS, CF, Cap)

“Does the story make sense?”“Does the story add up?”

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Set your goals from top downbut…..

Prepare the model from the bottom upthen….start over

with your top down goals

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Developing The Financial Forecast2. What about the assumptions?

Document the source of each number you produce - Why? - Knowledge of the assumptions proves that the

entrepreneur understands the business- Prove it to yourself

Sources of assumptions- Estimated or best guess (really try not to SWAG)

- Desired goal to be obtained- Primary market research – surveys, vendor quotes- Second market research – purchased or gov’t information

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Developing The Financial Forecast2. What about the assumptions? (part 2)

Start-up costs (uses of $)Financing (sources of $)Capital expenditures (costs with >1 yr life)Fixed expense (cost of being in business)Variable expense (cost of doing business)Projected sales (anticipated revenue earned)Cash flow (anticipated $ received and spent)

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• Expenses up to the point when you are open for business…….which is when?

• List all the uses of money – describe exactly how spent

• Two types: Fixed assets & Working Capital• Examples?

Fixed Assets = Equipment, Furniture Working Capital = Rental deposits, Insurance

Start-up cost assumptions

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• Sources where $ will come from• Where?

Entrepreneur and team F&F Bank loan (though not likely for start-ups)

Debt from owner or outside creditor Equity capital

• ID the amount, terms of repayment (mos), and rate if interest or return

Financing assumptions

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• Costs that have a “lifetime” greater than one year AND an individual or collective cost greater than $2k

• Predict some fixed assets by headcount, some by significant changes in sales volume, some by changes in product lines, etc.

• Examples: Leasehold improvements, Furniture & fixtures, Machinery

• Note: Probably expense the PCs and Macs (but try to keep track of them anyway)

Capital Expenditures(aka Fixed Assets)

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• Costs of being in business• Do not vary by sales volume (i.e. day-to-day)• But DO increase as the business scales• Create fixed cost projections on monthly basis• Research through correspondence with outside

vendors• Record the source & amount from each vendor……..• Examples: Rent, Utilities, Salaries, Benefits,

Marketing expenses, Administrative expenses

Fixed cost assumptions

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• Costs of doing business• May vary directly with sales volume• DO increase as the business scales• Expenses incurred with the next “unit” of

product or service• Research through correspondence with outside

vendors• Examples: Materials, direct/indirect labor, and

shipping costs

Variable cost assumptions

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What product(s) and/or service(s) Quantities Price When (seasonality/cyclicality)? T&C’s

Projected sales assumptions

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• Convert your business activity to cash activity• When will cash be collected from customers?

May vary by product line and by customer Generally assume 45 days---though currently

customers are extending to 60 days• When do you pay your vendor’s invoices?

May vary by product line and by vendor Generally assume 30-45 days Need to create “referenceable” vendors

Cash flow assumptions

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Developing The Financial Forecast

3. Creating the sales forecast

BEST - Predict by customer as detailed as possible….but include customer turnover

BETTER – Predict by market

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Developing The Financial Forecast3. Creating the sales forecast (part 2)

How do I start? Market research• Gov’t resources

US Census BureauIRS Statistical Data

• Trade association• Primary & secondary research

Select your geography

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Developing The Financial Forecast3. Creating the sales forecast (part 2)

Small Client

Medium Client

Large Client

Average Hours Per Week

4 Hours 8 Hours 16 Hours

Average Contract $ Per Week

$500 $1,250 $2,500

Predict by client (customer) types• By market• By size

Then ID certain characteristics

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Developing The Financial Forecast3. Creating the sales forecast (part 3)

Predict using Sales staff• Assume lag time (3-6 mos.)• Estimate the pipeline

• # of calls / meetings per staff• # of sales per staff

• Remember: Not all staff start same date• Spread out the volume by month – with

realistic goals• ….Consider turnover of sales staff

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Forecast Trap:Why they call them “Gross Sales”

• Returns• Discounts• Rebates• Chargebacks• Markdowns

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Forecast Trap:

Do not over-estimate first year revenue

(we can’t sell millions in first month?)

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Developing The Financial Forecast4. Spreading the Numbers

• Yes, you need to do it monthly -- for the entire period

• No flat numbers – consider the meaning – use % increases

• Think: As headcount increases rent increases (just not variably)

• Start with revenue, then cost of services

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Multiple Model Trap:One model, Multiple options (triggers)

Making fundamental changes in the base model and then forgetting to make similar changes on the “other scenario models”

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Tip:Integration

Must use an integrated model

Headcount addedPayroll and benefits calculationSummarized employee costsIncome StatementCash Flow

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Tip:Use Rounding

Use the MS Excel “rounding function” --- otherwise your

numbers may not add up

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Question?

Is the methodology Accrual or Cash?

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Tip:If you want to be taken seriously do

not use round numbers

This: 53,567Not this: 50,000

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Tip:Project payroll & benefits in detail

• Payroll & benefits are often the most costly expense yet they are often neglected.

• Project monthly to handle start dates correctly

• Match additions of people with milestones

• Employer-provided benefits should be determined by person for more accuracy (e.g. mandatory costs)

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Tip:Projection Numbers are not separate from

the Company Plans

Company Plans

Goals Projects Responsible Revenue/Cost

Dates

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Tip:Be careful with Depreciation and

Interest expense

• Depreciation is a non-cash expense – do not include in cash flow

(we’ll worry about how to calculate this when you come see me)

• Interest expense does not include the principal portion of your payment

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Ben LittauerMember, Boston Harbor Angels

"I like to see a business model spreadsheet with the assumptions clearly called out as variables.

Then I can twiddle the knobs and see how sensitive profits are to the assumptions."

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Tip:Don’t forget the…..

Sales commissions – Direct connect them to your sales staff’s (or sales rep) sales

Bonuses – Include in your payroll model

Recruiting expenses – Peg them to change in new employees

Debt - Many forget to include Interest Expense on the income statement even though there the Company has incurred Debt

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Presentation Suggestions

Steady, consistent evolution of the model Revenue growth in $ Expenses over time in %

Know the % change for major components

Do not allocate G&A/Facilities expenses

Show depreciation separately (non-cash)

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Tip:Reasonableness

1. Once you think you are done take the smell test --- Do the numbers really make sense (i.e. can you really increase revenue w/o an increase in costs)?

2. Do the Like-Kind test. Compare your “metrics” versus your competition

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Creating the Statements

1. Consider it a Marketing Effort2. Present the Pro-Forma Financial

Statement3. Graph the Revenues, Income, and Cash4. Present the Headcount

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ABC Co.($ 000's omitted)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Pro Forma Financial StatementRevenue -$ 1,875$ 44,953$ 108,238$ 180,161$ Cost of Service - 1,162 12,739 5,369 - Gross Margin - 712 32,214 102,868 180,161

38% 72% 95% 100%

Operating ExpensesEmployee Costs 1,303 2,972 3,587 4,198 4,379 Professional Fees 253 637 1,780 1,230 1,135 Marketing & Travel 61 525 2,340 293 658 Administrative Expenses 60 55 232 41 47 Development & Pilot Manufacturing 409 819 262 965 1,733 Facility & Other 195 801 1,206 1,612 2,023 Total Expenses 2,282 5,807 9,407 8,340 9,976

Depreciation & Amortization 42 98 301 590 791 EBIT (2,324) (5,193) 22,507 93,939 169,394

Net Income (2,639) (5,411) 16,893 55,530 100,603 0% -289% 38% 51% 56%

Pro Forma Cash FlowCash from Operations (2,597) (5,313) 17,193 56,120 101,393 Cash from Working Capital (31) (936) (2,879) (2,754) (3,437) Cash from Investments (57) (297) (1,052) (607) (600) Cash from Financing 7,000 - 42,000 - -

Net Cash Flow 4,315 (6,545) 55,262 52,759 97,357 Ending Cash 6,644$ 99$ 55,360$ 108,119$ 205,476$

Income Statement

Cash Flow Statement

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ABC Company – Financials by Year($ 000’s omitted)

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ABC Co.2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Manufacturing - 1 1 1 1 Sales & Marketing - - 1 4 4 Research 7 19 19 19 19 Executive/Admin 3 8 9 9 9 International - 1 2 3 4 Total 10 29 32 36 37

Headcount Summary

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ABC Co.2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Manufacturing - 1 1 1 1 Sales & Marketing - - 1 4 4 Research 7 19 19 19 19 Executive/Admin 3 8 9 9 9 International - 1 2 3 4 Total 10 29 32 36 37

2010 Jan, 10 Feb, 10 Mar, 10 Apr, 10 May, 10 Jun, 10 Jul, 10 Aug, 10 Sep, 10 Oct, 10 Nov, 10 Dec, 10

Manufacturing - - - - - - - - - - - - Sales & Marketing - - - - - - - - - - - - Research 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 Executive/Admin 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 International - - - - - - - - - - - - Total 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10

2011 Jan, 11 Feb, 11 Mar, 11 Apr, 11 May, 11 Jun, 11 Jul, 11 Aug, 11 Sep, 11 Oct, 11 Nov, 11 Dec, 11

Manufacturing 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Sales & Marketing - - - - - - - - - - - - Research 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 Executive/Admin 4 4 4 4 4 5 7 7 7 8 8 8 International - - - - - 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Total 24 24 24 24 24 26 28 28 28 29 29 29

2012 Jan, 12 Feb, 12 Mar, 12 Apr, 12 May, 12 Jun, 12 Jul, 12 Aug, 12 Sep, 12 Oct, 12 Nov, 12 Dec, 12

Manufacturing 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Sales & Marketing - - - - - - - - - - 1 1 Research 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 Executive/Admin 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 International 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Total 30 30 30 30 30 31 31 31 31 31 32 32

2013 Jan, 13 Feb, 13 Mar, 13 Apr, 13 May, 13 Jun, 13 Jul, 13 Aug, 13 Sep, 13 Oct, 13 Nov, 13 Dec, 13

Manufacturing 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Sales & Marketing 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 Research 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 Executive/Admin 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 International 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Total 32 32 34 34 35 35 36 36 36 36 36 36

2014 Jan, 14 Feb, 14 Mar, 14 Apr, 14 May, 14 Jun, 14 Jul, 14 Aug, 14 Sep, 14 Oct, 14 Nov, 14 Dec, 14

Manufacturing 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Sales & Marketing 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Research 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 Executive/Admin 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 International 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Total 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37

Headcount SummaryFor your review

only. Not for presentation

Looking at the monthly

headcount helps you find obvious

discrepancies

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More on charts and tables……

1. Highlight revenue especially as compared with your competition

2. Explain the sales & distribution model (…so about those 90% margins)

3. Key events to next funding round4. Cash flow cycle

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Universal Truths:

1. Project monthly, Present annually2. Projections constantly change,

let them. Not an annual exercise.Develop as a monthly exercise.

3. Financial must be consistent with rest of presentation

4. Do not need to be hung up with GAAP, but don’t go rogue

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Even More Universal Truths:5. Be consistent – Don’t portray cost

categories (or individuals) differently by year

6. P&L Income ≠ Cash Flow (we know this right?)

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Developing The Financial Forecast

Contact Information:David A. FogelPrincipalSwifton CFOs

Email: dfogel@swiftoncfos.comWebsite: www.swiftoncfos.comTwitter: @swifton

Phone: 781.806.5436Cell: 781.910.7559

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