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Minnesota’s Long Term Fiscal Challenges. Tom Stinson, State Economist Tom Gillaspy, State Demographer December 2007. Minnesota Is at an Inflection Point. Demographic changes, globalization and technological advances will alter Economic structure Infrastructure and social investment needs - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Minnesota’s Long Term Fiscal Challenges
Tom Stinson, State Economist
Tom Gillaspy, State Demographer
December 2007
Minnesota Is at an Inflection Point
• Demographic changes, globalization and technological advances will alter
– Economic structure
– Infrastructure and social investment needs
– Entitlement and related spending
– Government resources
• Minnesota may need to prepare for change
Budget Priorities Will Change: More 65+ Than School Age by 2020
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
18-24
65+
5-17
Census counts & State Demographer projection
Budget Priorities Will Change: More 65+ Than School Age by 2020
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
18-24
65+
5-17
Census counts & State Demographer projection
Budget Priorities Will Change: More 65+ Than School Age by 2020
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
18-24
65+
5-17
Census counts & State Demographer projection
Budget Priorities Will Change: More 65+ Than School Age by 2020
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
18-24
65+
5-17
Census counts & State Demographer projection
State Taxes Paid by a Married Couple Before and After Retirement
Income Income Tax
Sales Tax
Total Change Pct
Working
$35,000 $1,236 $782 $2,018
$65,000 $3,387 $1,295 $4,682
Retired @ 70 %
$25,000 $0 $559 $559 -$1,459 -72%
$45,000 $1,091 $896 $1,987 -$2,695 -58%
Aging Is the Dominant Trend in Minnesota and the Nation
• It is not normal for a society to age
• Dramatic changes are coming over the next 4 years
• Sharp increase in retirements will begin in 2008
• In 2011, the number of 65th birthdays will increase substantially
From 2005 to 2015, fastest growth in Minnesota will be for ages 55 to 69
Projected change in number
16,2003,9006,700
44,50098,000
119,400107,200
55,500-43,400
-64,100-700
67,20051,800
-9,600-29,200
7,40049,100
37,600
85+80-8475-7970-7465-6960-6455-5950-5445-4940-4435-3930-3425-2920-2415-1910-14
5-90-4
Source: Minnesota State Demographic CenterNumbers are rounded
The Number of Workers Turning Age 62 Will Jump 30 Percent in 2008
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
7/05 to7/06
7/06 to7/07
7/07 to7/08
7/08 to7/09
7/09 to7/10
7/10 to7/11
7/11 to7/12
Year Turning Age 62
Wo
rke
d W
ith
in P
as
t 5
ye
ars
2005 ACS
Minnesota’s Dependency Ratio Is at a Record Low
47.7
57.8
76.169.4
53.3 54.550.7
47.3
54.8
64.3 64.9 65.4 66
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Dep
enden
cy R
atio
Dependency Ratio= Number of children (0-14) plus number of elderly (65+)Divided by the population 15 to 64 time 100
The Proportion of Seniors Will Increase
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Pe
r 1
00
Ag
e 1
5 t
o 6
4
Aged Dependency Youth Dependency
Under 15 and 65+ per 100 age 15 to 64
Aging of Society Will Impact Private and Public Spending
• Health care spending will increase
• Shift in government priorities to issues of aging and health
• Older voters often more fiscally conservative
• State tax base will be affected as baby boom reaches retirement age
Health Care Will Grow as a Proportion of GDP Through 2025
CBO Expects Medicaid Spending to Double by 2016, State Tax Revenues
Will Not Keep Up
0
50
100
150
200
250
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Medicaid CostRevenue
Index, 2006 = 100
Aging is not the only concern
By 2020 Minnesota Will Add About ¾ Million People And 1/3 Million
Households
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2006 2010 2020 2030
State Demographer projection revised 2007
Childless Couples And 1-person Households Projected To Grow
-24,500
29,000
-7,200
127,700
6,400
77,800
24,000
Married with Kids
Single Parents
Married No Kids,under 55
Married No Kids, 55+
Living Alone Under55
Living Alone, 55+
Other Households
Projected change, 2005 to 2015
Minnesota State Demographic Center projections
Upper Midwest Becoming More Diverse But Still Less Than The Nation
4%
6%
6%
9%
9%
24%
9%
14%
10%
13%
14%
34%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Iowa
Minnesota
North Dakota
South Dakota
Wisconsin
United States
Percent Population of Color
2006
1990
Note: Population except white alone, not Hispanic, 2006 Census Bureau estimate
Minnesota’s Foreign-Born Population Increasing Since 1970
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2006
Source: Census, 2006 ACS
Projected change in Minnesota income by type (preliminary results)
Assuming constant income by age and household type
8
6
15
24
12
4
36
65
Total
Earnings
Assets
Social Security
Projected Change in Income
2015-2035
2005-2015
Minnesota State Demographic Center
State Taxes Paid by a Married Couple Before and After Retirement
Income Income Tax
Sales Tax
Total Change Pct
Working
$35,000 $1,236 $782 $2,018
$65,000 $3,387 $1,295 $4,682
Retired @ 70 %
$25,000 $0 $559 $559 -$1,459 -72%
$45,000 $1,091 $896 $1,987 -$2,695 -58%
An Increasing Proportion of Consumption Goes for Services
Much of Minnesota’s Tax Base is More Volatile than GDP
-15
0
15
30
45
Wages GDP Cons Dur MotorVeh
BusEquip
CorpProfit
CapGains
Mean + / - Std Dev
Mean Growth Rate for Nominal GDP
Minnesota Has Been Very Successful (Especially For a Cold Weather State at the End
of the Road)
• Our economic growth rate has exceeded the national average
• Our population growth rate leads the frost belt
• We rank with the leaders on many social and economic indicators
Minnesota’s Current Success Is Due to Decisions Made 50+ Years Ago
• Private sector and public sector decisions established the foundation for growth in Minnesota’s economy
• Wise investments were made
• Dealing with challenges accompanying the baby boom was a key to our success