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Min Ye Paing Hein Landless and Poverty in Myanmar World Bank

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Introduction Landlessness is a highly politicized issue in Myanmar Some scholarly attention (Dapice et al, 2009 2010 2011) (MSU/MRDI, 2013). Landlessness is not a monolithic phenomenon and myriad paths lead to landlessness 5/15/2015 2

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Objectives To present a systematic analysis of landlessness and poverty in Myanmar. To explore varieties of landlessness in Myanmarie., different sub-groups of landless (rural/urban, poor/non-poor, national/sub-national zones). To identify some main drivers of landlessness and poverty. 5/15/2015 3

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Data Sources Integrated Household Living Condition (IHCLA) surveys (UNDP and the Ministry of National Planning and Economic Development) (2004/2005 and 2009/2010) IHLCA II revisit (World Bank, 2014) LIFT baseline Survey and JICA Dry Zone study The Qualitative Social and Economic Monitoring (QSEM) study (World Bank) Extant quantitative and qualitative studies 5/15/2015 4

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Landless in Myanmar 5/15/2015 5

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The Landless: Concentration 5/15/2015 6

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Poverty Profile of the landless 5/15/2015 7

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Ecological Zones in Myanmar 5/15/2015 8

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9 Landlessness UrbanRural PoorNon-Poor PoorNon-Poor 1.Differences in Socio-Demographic Profiles 2.Differences in Labor Market Characteristics

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The Profiles of Rural and Urban Landless The data shows that the profile of landlessness in the urban area is qualitatively and quantitatively very different from the profile of landlessness in the rural area 5/15/2015 10

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Welfare indicators for rural landless on both side of the poverty line are most often worse off than those of the urban landless poor. 5/15/2015 11

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Rural and Urban: Labor Market Characteristics of the landless Agriculture plays a relatively more diminished role for non-poor than the poor in both rural and urban sectors. Wholesale and retail trade is the most commonly listed major source of income for the urban landless followed by services, transport, manufacturing, services, construction and education. Wholesale and retail trade is listed as the main source of income for the majority of the urban landless non-poor accounting for 40 percent of the respondents within the domain of all listed occupational categories while agriculture is listed as the main source of income for only 1.5 percent of such respondents. Agriculture is the main source of income for the majority of rural landless poor with listed sectoral categories (47.15 percent) compared to 37.7 percent for the rural landless non-poor. 5/15/2015 12

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Financial behaviors of the Urban and Rural landless. IHLCA II current consumption loans are the most cited reason for borrowing the last loans among the landless, which is followed by non-farm investment. 58 percent of rural landless poor list current consumption as the main reason for taking out their last loan. Conversely, non-farm investment is the main reason of taking out the last loan for the urban non-poor with 43.4 percent of the population in that category LIFT and QSEM 57 percent of the landless listed food purchases as the main reason for the loans with the last 12 months compared to 30 percent for the landed 3.4 percent of the landless reported that the purchase of agricultural inputs for the household as the main reason compared to 33 percent to landholders. The landless have very limited access to finance and they are exposed to high-interest loans due to their inability to use land as collateral 13

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5/15/2015 14 Landlessness DeltaDry Zone PoorNon-Poor 1.Differences in Socio-Demographic Profiles 2.Differences in Labor Market Characteristics Coastal Hill Poor Non- Poor Poor Non- Poor Poor Non- Poor

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Educational Profiles of the Landless: Agro-ecological Zones The coastal region has the highest percentage of landless poor without any educational qualification at all (37 percent) with an additional 40 percent of the landless poor had only completed primary school. Therefore, the data shows that the landless poor in the coastal region are primarily situated in the lowest strung of Myanmars formal educational ladder. The delta region has the lowest proportions of the landless with no educational qualification and primary education both across the poverty line. Conversely, the delta region also has the highest percentages of university graduates amongst the landless both above and below the poverty line (12 percent and 2.53 percent respectively). 5/15/2015 15

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Dimension of deprivation may be different across space. 5/15/2015 16

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Regional Labor Markets & Human Capital Accumulation This divergence in the patterns of human capital accumulation within these regions may tie to the structure of regional labor markets and return to education in these markets. For example, in the delta, around forty three percent of all listed occupations for all the laborers are congregated in the modern occupations such as legislators, professionals and technicians and service sectors whereas the percentage share of modern occupations in the dry zone and coastal regions are limited to approximately twenty percent of the population. 5/15/2015 17

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Diminished Role of Agriculture Amongst the Non-poor If we compare the source of employment between the poor and non-poor amongst the landless across all ecological zones, the share of agriculture in the employment for the poor is invariably larger than that of non-poor. It is most pronounced in the delta and the hilly region as the percentage share of the agriculture in the employment for the non-poor is at least half the share of the employment in the agriculture for the poor. The percentage share of the trade sector in the employment is consistently and perceptibly lower for the poor compared to that of the non-poor in all ecological zones. 5/15/2015 18

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Sectoral Distribution of Employment Across Ecological Zones Wholesale and retail trade sector is the most dominant sector amongst the landless in all ecological zones except for the dry zone in which agriculture, hunting and forestry sector is the most dominant sector of employment for the landless. However, if we look at the entire labor market, the size of agricultural sector is consistently larger than that of the wholesale and retail trade sector in terms of employment. In the dry zone and the hilly zone, the magnitude of employment in the agricultural sector is four times larger than that of the wholesale and retail trade sector. the percentage share of the wholesale and trade sector is the largest amongst the landless compared to marginal farmer (less than two acres), larger landholders (more than two acres) in all ecological zones, thus showing the prominence of this sector for the landless in Myanmar. 5/15/2015 19

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Causal Labor and Landlessness 14.2 percent of the landless are employed as causal workers. Yet, the prevalence of landless amongst the casual workers is markedly high because more than 85 percent of causal workers are also landless. the hilly region has the smallest amount of overlap between the landless and casual laborers whereas in the delta/coastal ecological zone, this overlap is at its peak with 89 percent of casual laborers falling into the category of landless. (LIFT) On the national scale, causal workers constitute 9.33 percent of the national work force, 4.3 percent of urban work force and 11.16 percent of the rural work force. 5/15/2015 20

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The Nexus between Casual labor and Poverty 5/15/2015 21

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Welfare indicators for Casual Laborers 5/15/2015 22

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Landless and Casual Poor 5/15/2015 23

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Casually.. Welfare indicators for rural causal workers on both side of the poverty line are most often worse off than those of the urban casual poor Causal poor are consistently worse off than those of landless poor across myriad welfare indicators. 5/15/2015 24

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Main Drivers of Landless ( 1)Policy??? 2011 Farmland Bill (Willis, 2013) (Asian Legal resource Centre, 2012) A bias towards large-scale mechanized farms (Hudson-Rodd and Nyunt, 2001) (Nge, 2014) 471,323 Acres of uncultivated, virgin and wet lands to 19 private entities in 1999 (Hudson-Rodd and Nyunt, 2001) 1.75 million Acres to 216 private companies by 2010. (Food Security Working Group, 2011) Land re-appropriation from 734 farm families to the hands of twelve private entities. (Nge, 2014) 5/15/2015 25

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Political Economy of Land (Nge,2014) 5/15/2015 26 Lot No.Name of Company Acreage Assigned Affected Farming Households Note on Proprietor of the Company 1Wun Yan Kha50063*U Tin Win (MP) 2Shwe Naga Min50062* U Win Myint (Current Minster of Commerce; former Chairman, UMFCCI) 3Max Myanmar50077U Zaw Zaw (Max brand Drinks, Chairman MFF) 4Shwe Hein Htet50062*U Win Naing (Construction and Gem Companies) 5Eden50062*U Chit Khine (Chairman, MRIA) 6Green Asia50060U Tun Myint Naing (Asia World Co., Son of Lao Hsihan) 7 Amyothar KyiPwa Toetatyay50071U Soe Tun Shein (Proprietor, gold mines) 8Shwe Taung50063U Eike Tun (Chairman, liquidated Asia Wealth Bank) 9Pinle Koe Thwe50068U Aung Than Oo (MP) 10Good Brothers50062*U Hla Oo 11Mya Shwe Wah50062*Later Taken over by Pinle Koe Thwe Co. Line#9, above 12Shwe Naga Min163.723*U Win Myint (Current Minster of Commerce; ) * Estimated based on Statement of Deputy Minister U Khin Zaw Statement of Deputy Minister for Agriculture and Irrigation at Pyihtaungsu Hluttaw on Oct 24, 2011. Kyay Mon, Oct 25, 2011.

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Main Drivers of Landless (2) Climatic Extremes??? Coastal Zone to cyclones and the dry zone to draughts Rakhine and Mandalay have the highest number of village tracts with multiple natural disasters. (Agricultural Census, FAO) Financial and Human losses from extreme weather events (MSU) Cyclone Nargis (Dapice, 2009) 5/15/2015 27

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(3) Structure of the Economy??? 5/15/2015 28 Main Drivers of Landless

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Lowest Agricultural Productivity in the region 5/15/2015 29

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Prominence of Extractive Industries Sales from Gas and Jade- 20% of the GDP (Dapice, 2013) Gas/oil and electricity account for more than 90 percent of the total FDI. Agriculture Sector- 0.5 percent of FDI. 5/15/2015 30

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Concluding thoughts Consumption poor amongst urban landless are better off across many a welfare indicator than both consumption poor and non- poor amongst rural landless. Manifestations of poverty amongst the landless vary by region: For example, (1) acute deprivation in sanitation amongst consumption poor in the coastal zone vis--vis the rest of the consumption poor across the country (2) landless poor in the dry zone are particularly worse off in terms of having a dwelling with durable housing materials across all ecological zones. The research also speaks to the diminished role of agriculture for those landless and casual laborers above the poverty line and the more prominent role of trade sector and non-farm investment for non-poor across a majority of ecological zones. 31