Milk Market Situation - Vlaanderen · 1/10/2019 · 8 6 3 0 7 7 9 3 2 2 1 8 7 1 7 8 7 5 9 9 4 3 3 8 7 7 4 3 7 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 cy mt gr ie fi at dk nl se de

Milk Market Situation

Brussels, 10 January 2019

10 January 2019

!!! Data from some Member States are confidential and are NOT included in this table !!!

+1.2% +1.2%

-1.1%-3.1% -1.5%

-6.2%

-2.4%

+0.6%+0.4%

- 15%

- 10%

- 5%

+ 0%

+ 5%

EU Productions (Jan-Oct 2018 compared to Jan-Oct 2017)

10 January 2019

-5.0% to -2.8%

-2.8% to -2.1%

-2.1% to -0.8%

-0.8% to 0.0%

0.0% to +0.9%

+0.9% to +2.5%

+2.5% to +4.0%

+4.0% to +11.0%

n/a+4.7

+10.5

+3.1

+2.6

+2.3

+3.2

+2.8

+0.7+2.1

+0.4

+1.2

+6.0

-4.1

-2.8

+6.3

+0.5

-1.6

-2.2

+0.7

+2.5

+1.4

+7.7

-0.8

-0.8

-0.3

-2.1

+0.1

Source : MS' Communications to Eurostat, FEGA, AGEA, Reg.479/2010.1(a)1

-4.6

DE, EL, HR, CY and SE figures based on MS notifications to DG AGRI - estimation for IT

10 January 2019

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

15000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

10

00

To

nn

es

EU - Cows' milk collected

2015

2016

2017

2018

Jan-Oct 2018/17 : +1.2%

Last update : Jan-OctSource : Estat - Newcronos

Jan-Oct 2018/17 : + 1.2%

10 January 2019

36.1

32.8

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

48

50

Jan 0

1

Jan 0

2

Jan 0

3

Jan 0

4

Jan 0

5

Jan 0

6

Jan 0

7

Jan 0

8

Jan 0

9

Jan 1

0

Jan 1

1

Jan 1

2

Jan 1

3

Jan 1

4

Jan 1

5

Jan 1

6

Jan 1

7

Jan 1

8

EUR/100 kgEU Raw Milk Prices Evolution (up to November 2018)

Weighted EU Average (real fat content)

EU Milk Equiv. Price (based on SMP and Butter prices)

Source : MS’ communications under Reg. (EU) No 2017/1185 Article 12(a) - Annex II.4(a)

* : provisional figures

57.8

51.6

39.3

39.0

38.7

38.7

37.9

37.3

37.2

37.2

37.1

36.8

36.7

36.1

35.7

34.8

33.7

33.5

32.9

32.9

32.4

32.3

32.3

31.8

31.7

30.7

30.4

30.3

29.7

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

CY MT GR IE FI AT DK NL SE DE IT LU FR EU BE UK HR CZ SK PL SI ES EE PT LT RO BG HU LV

in E

UR

/1

00

kg

E U M I L K P R I C E S

Milk price 2017

Milk price 2018

Source : Member States (Regulation (EU) No 2017/1185 Article 12(a) - Annex II.4(a))

( Nov 2018 vs Nov 2017 )

Source: MS’ communications under Reg. 479//2010

NB: The above national price averages are of mixed nature, some relate to standardised milk,

others to milk with real fat and protein content, pending harmonisation under reg. 479/2010

10 January 2019

Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010

100

150

200

250

300

350Ja

n

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EU

R/1

00 k

g

Weekly EU SMP Prices

2015 2016 2017 2018 IP 2009

Latest price : 169 EUR/100kg

Evolution compared to same period last year : +15%

10 January 2019

178

174

173169

165

153

149

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

DE BE NL EU Avg. CZ PL IE

in E

UR/1

00 kg

EU S.M.P. Prices (up to 16.12.2018)

I.P. : 169.8

Source: Regulation (EU) No 2017/1185 Article 11 - Annex I.7

10 January 2019

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700Ja

n

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EU

R/1

00 k

g

Weekly EU BUTTER Prices

2015 2016 2017 2018 IP 2009

Evolution compared to same period last year : -6%


10 January 2019


582

519

462 453443

423 419 414

150

250

350

450

550

650

SK CZ EU Avg. DE PL IE IT NL

EU

R/1

00 k

g

EU BUTTER Prices (up to 16.12.2018)

Source : Regulation (EU) No 2017/1185 Article 11 - Annex I.7

I.P. = 221.75

10 January 2019

462

169

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan 18

in E

UR/100 k

g

.

EU Quotations of Butter and SMP(EU average based on MS communication and weighted by production)

Butter Intervention buying in price SMP Intervention buying in price

BUTTER prices SMP prices

Source: MS’ communications under reg. 562/2005 and 479/2010

10 January 2019

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

Jan 0

3

Jan 0

4

Jan 0

5

Jan 0

6

Jan 0

7

Jan 0

8

Jan 0

9

Jan 1

0

Jan 1

1

Jan 1

2

Jan 1

3

Jan 1

4

Jan 1

5

Jan 1

6

Jan 1

7

Jan 1

8

in E

UR/1

00 k

g

EU Dairy Quotations

(EU Average Prices based on MS communication and weighted by production)

BUTTER

SMP

WMP

CHEDDAR

Source: Regulation (EU) No 2017/1185 Article 11 - Annex I.7

10 January 2019


150

200

250

300

350

400

450Ja

n

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EU

R/1

00 k

g

Weekly EU WMP Prices

2015 2016 2017 2018



10 January 2019


10 January 2019

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EU

R/1

00 k

g

Weekly EU CHEDDAR Prices

2015 2016 2017 2018

Evolution compared to same period last year : -2%


150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EU

R/100 k

g

Weekly EU EDAM Prices

2015 2016 2017 2018




10 January 2019

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EU

R/1

00 k

g

Weekly EU WheyPowder Prices

2015 2016 2017 2018



- 75 000

- 50 000

- 25 000

0

25 000

50 000

75 000

100 000

125 000

150 000

175 000

200 000

225 000

250 000

275 000

300 000

325 000

350 000

375 000

400 000

Qu

an

tity

in t

on

ne

s

Public SMP Intervention scheme (2017-2018)Buying-in quantity & stocks

Quantities In (2018) Quantities Out (2018)

Quantity offered (2017) Stocks level end of month (2017)

Quantity offered (2018) Stocks level end of month (2018)

219 990

10 January 2019

10 January 2019

EUR/USD

1.1348

10 January 2019

2 250

1 9852 110

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

6 000

Sep

11

Dec 1

1

Ma

r 12

Jun 1

2

Sep

12

Dec 1

2

Ma

r 13

Jun 1

3

Sep

13

Dec 1

3

Ma

r 14

Jun 1

4

Sep

14

Dec 1

4

Ma

r 15

Jun 1

5

Sep

15

Dec 1

5

Ma

r 16

Jun 1

6

Sep

16

Dec 1

6

Ma

r 17

Jun 1

7

Sep

17

Dec 1

7

Ma

r 18

Jun 1

8

Sep

18

Dec 1

8

Prices in U

SD

/tonne

EU/US/Oceania Quotations of SMP

Avg Oceania SMP quotation

Avg EU SMP internal Price

Avg US SMP quotation

Source: MS’ communications under Reg. 2017/1185 & USDA market news

10 January 2019

2 713

3 137

3 417

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

6 000

Sep

11

Dec 1

1

Ma

r 12

Jun 1

2

Sep

12

Dec 1

2

Ma

r 13

Jun 1

3

Sep

13

Dec 1

3

Ma

r 14

Jun 1

4

Sep

14

Dec 1

4

Ma

r 15

Jun 1

5

Sep

15

Dec 1

5

Ma

r 16

Jun 1

6

Sep

16

Dec 1

6

Ma

r 17

Jun 1

7

Sep

17

Dec 1

7

Ma

r 18

Jun 1

8

Sep

18

Dec 1

8

Prices in U

SD

/tonne

EU/US/Oceania Quotations of WMP

Avg Oceania WMP quotation

Avg EU WMP internal Price

Avg US WMP quotation


10 January 2019

4 113

5 178

4 925

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

6 000

6 500

7 000

7 500

8 000

8 500

Sep

11

Dec 1

1

Ma

r 12

Jun 1

2

Sep

12

Dec 1

2

Ma

r 13

Jun 1

3

Sep

13

Dec 1

3

Ma

r 14

Jun 1

4

Sep

14

Dec 1

4

Ma

r 15

Jun 1

5

Sep

15

Dec 1

5

Ma

r 16

Jun 1

6

Sep

16

Dec 1

6

Ma

r 17

Jun 1

7

Sep

17

Dec 1

7

Ma

r 18

Jun 1

8

Sep

18

Dec 1

8

Prices in U

SD

/tonne

EU/US/Oceania Quotations of Butter

Avg Oceania Butter quotation

Avg EU Butter internal Price

Avg US Butter quotation


10 January 2019

3 438

3 132

3 497

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

6 000S

ep

11

Dec 1

1

Ma

r 12

Jun 1

2

Sep

12

Dec 1

2

Ma

r 13

Jun 1

3

Sep

13

Dec 1

3

Ma

r 14

Jun 1

4

Sep

14

Dec 1

4

Ma

r 15

Jun 1

5

Sep

15

Dec 1

5

Ma

r 16

Jun 1

6

Sep

16

Dec 1

6

Ma

r 17

Jun 1

7

Sep

17

Dec 1

7

Ma

r 18

Jun 1

8

Sep

18

Dec 1

8

Prices in U

SD

/tonne

EU/US/Oceania Quotations of Cheddar

Avg OceaniaCheddar quotation

Avg EU Cheddar internal Price

Avg US Cheddar quotation


10 January 2019

153 359136 857

340 898373 767

12 723 12 345

25 772 43 691

3 295 2 413

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

400 000

2017 2018

BUTTER & Butteroil

Exports

EU-28 (up to Oct)New Zealand (up to Oct)Australia (up to Oct)United States (up to Oct)Argentina (up to Oct)

10 January 2019

663 739 691 111

301 642260 275

129 586 . 125 665 .

492 339 .

617 161 .

16 729 11 429

0

100 000

200 000

300 000

400 000

500 000

600 000

700 000

800 000

2017 2018

SMP ExportsEU-28 (up to Oct)New Zealand (up to Oct)Australia (up to Oct)United States (up to Oct)Argentina (up to Oct)

10 January 2019

336

576

293

967

1 005 517 .989 951 .

44 1

42

47 6

37

21 6

46

42 5

90

54 3

46

86 7

65

0

200 000

400 000

600 000

800 000

1 000 000

1 200 000

2017 2018

WMP ExportsEU-28 (up to Oct)New Zealand (up to Oct)Australia (up to Oct)United States (up to Oct)Argentina (up to Oct)

10 January 2019

694 555 697 668

276 891 258 777

135

870

139

665

286 003 294 170

37 266 33 988

0

100 000

200 000

300 000

400 000

500 000

600 000

700 000

800 000

2017 2018

CHEESE

Exports

EU-28 (up to Oct)New Zealand (up to Oct)Australia (up to Oct)United States (up to Oct)Argentina (up to Oct)

10 January 2019

EU-28 Exports (1/2)

Source : Eurostat (COMEXT)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

94102 102

120

135

162

137

1000 Tonnes

BUTTER exports

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18


1000 tonnes

Jan- Oct 2018 exports compared to 2017 : - 10%

BUTTER exports

2017

2018

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

515 520

407

648695

579

780

1000 TonnesSMP exports

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90


1000 tonnes

Jan- Oct 2018 exports compared to 2017 : + 4%

SMP exports

2017

2018

10 January 2019

EU-28 Exports (2/2)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

673

768 786721 719

799829

1000 Tonnes

CHEESE exports

300

400

500

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

388 386374

390401

382393

1000 TonnesWMP exports

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90


1000 tonnes

Jan- Oct 2018 exports compared to 2017 : + 0%

CHEESE exports

2017

2018

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


1000 tonnes

Jan- Oct 2018 exports compared to 2017 : - 13%

WMP exports

20172018

10 January 2019

14 06916 844

35 271

45 724

76 336

53 073

24 010

31 18032 842

18 566

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

80 000

90 000

2 017 2 018

BUTTER + Butteroil

Imports

EU-28 (up to Oct)

United States (up to Oct)

Russia (up to Aug)

China (up to Mar)

Mexico (up to Sep)

10 January 2019

1 8443 258

250 235266 965

88 887

51 42474 343

82 480

44 764 41 865

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

2 017 2 018

SMP ImportsEU-28 (up to Oct)

Mexico (up to Sep)

Russia (up to Aug)

China (up to Mar)

Japan (up to Oct)

10 January 2019

947 857

35 102

12 012

196 106215 525

19 9437 5752 336 4 603

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

2 017 2 018

WMP ImportsEU-28 (up to Oct)

Russia (up to Aug)

China (up to Mar)


Mexico (up to Sep)

10 January 2019

47 36747 156

148 405 142 783146 909

259 184

28 13226 721

221 626235 933

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

2 017 2 018

CHEESE

Imports

EU-28 (up to Oct)


Russia (up to Aug)

China (up to Mar)

Japan (up to Oct)

10 January 2019

Main Dairy Importers (Butter + Butteroil 1/2)

0

25

50

75

100

125

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

73 68

136 139

96 105 98

1000 Tonnes

Russia

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14


1000 tonnes

Jan-Aug 2018 compared to 2017 : - 30%

2017

2016

2018

0

25

50

75

100

125

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

3648 52

80 7182

92

1000 Tonnes

China

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20


1000 tonnes

Jan-Mar 2018 compared to 2017 : + 30%

2017

2018

10 January 2019

Main Dairy Importers (Butter + Butteroil 2/2)

0

25

50

75

100

125

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

13 18 14 2240 47 44

1000 Tonnes

United States

0

25

50

75

100

125

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

29 3040

30 3552

39

1000 Tonnes

Mexico

0

2

4

6

8

10

12


1000 tonnes Jan-Oct 2018 compared to 2017 : + 30%

2017

2018

Jan-Oct 2018 compared to 2017 : + 30%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12


1000 tonnes

Jan-Sep 2018 compared to 2017 : - 43%

2017

2016

2018

Jan-Sep 2018 compared to 2017 : - 43%

10 January 2019

Main Dairy Importers (S.M.P. - 1/2)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

130168

235 253200 184

247

1000 Tonnes

China

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50


1000 tonnes


20172018

0

50

100

150

200

250

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

129 112 120

168136 119

161

1000 Tonnes

Algeria

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40


1000 tonnes

Jan-Jun 2018 compared to 2017 : + 30%

2017

2017


2018

10 January 2019

Main Dairy Importers (S.M.P. – 2/2)

0

50

100

150

200

250

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

27 27

112 95116

136 126

1000 Tonnes

Russia

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20


1000 tonnes

2017

2014

Jan-Aug 2018 compared to 2017 : - 42%

2016

2018

0

5

10

15

20

25

1000 tonnes

Jan-Sep 2018 compared to 2017 : + 7%

2009

2010

0

50

100

150

200

250

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

194236

198 203

259 286 331

1000 Tonnes

Mexico

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50


1000 tonnes

Jan-Sep 2018 compared to 2017 : + 7%

20172018

10 January 2019

Main Dairy Importers (W.M.P. 1/2)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

320406

619671

347420 470

1000 Tonnes

China

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160


1000 tonnes


2017

2018

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

204 188142

204 224 224262

1000 Tonnes

Algeria

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


1000 tonnes


2017

2017


2018

10 January 2019

Main Dairy Importers (W.M.P. 2/2)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

51 64 74 81 75 86 87

1000 Tonnes

Hong Kong

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

55 71 54 3059

12673

1000 Tonnes

Brazil

0

5

10

15

20

25

30


1000 tonnes


2017

2018

0

5

10

15

20

25

30


1000 tonnesJan-Oct 2018 compared to 2017 : - 17%

2017

2013 2016

Jan-Oct 2018 compared to 2017 : - 17%

2018

10 January 2019

Main Dairy Importers (Cheese – 1/2)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

296 316

440

321

209 223 226

1000 Tonnes

Russia

0

5

10

15

20

25


1000 tonnes

Jan-Aug 2018 compared to 2017 : + 8% (estimation for Aug'18)

2017

2016 2017

2018

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

215 235 236 232 249 258 273

1000 Tonnes

Japan

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40


1000 tonnes


2017

2018

10 January 2019

Main Dairy Importers (Cheese – 2/2)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

76 78 85 97 112 110 125

1000 Tonnes

South Korea

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

143 154 148 165200 205 183

1000 Tonnes

United States

0

5

10

15

20

25


1000 tonnes


2017

2018

0

5

10

15

20

25


1000 tonnes


2017

2018

10 January 2019

7 000

7 200

7 400

7 600

7 800

8 000

8 200

8 400

8 600

8 800Jan

Fe

b

Ma

r

Apr

Ma

y

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

in 1

000 t

on

ne

s

U.S. milk production

2015

2016

2017

2018

Source:USDA

Jan-Oct 2018 vs 2017 : + 1.1% (real monthly production)

10 January 2019

Source: Dairy Australia

500

600

700

800

900

1 000

1 100

1 200

Ju

l

Au

g

Sep

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Ju

n

in 1

000 t

on

ne

s

Jul-Oct 2018/19 compared to 2017/18 : - 4.0%

Australian milk production

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

2018/19

10 January 2019

Source: DCANZ - Fonterra

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

Ju

n

Ju

l

Au

g

Sep

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

in 1

000 t

on

ne

s

.

Jun-Oct 2018/19 compared to 2017/18 : + 5.8%

NZ milk production

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

2018/19

10 January 2019

GDT Auction results

Average price (USD/MT, FAS)

Event 2272 January 2019

+2.8%

$2 986

Event 2272 January 2019

+2.8%

$2 986

Butter

+3.9%$ 4 076

Butter MilkPowder

+9.3%$ 3 252

Cheddar

+3.2%$ 3 371

Anhydrous Milk Fat

+3.9%$ 5 137

Butter

+3.9%$ 4 076

Butter MilkPowder

+9.3%$ 3 252

Cheddar

+3.2%$ 3 371

Lactose

+1.6%$ 948

Rennet Casein

+1.3%$ 5 123

Skim MilkPowder

+7.9%$ 2 201

Lactose

+1.6%$ 948

Rennet Casein

+1.3%$ 5 123

Skim MilkPowder

+7.9%$ 2 201

Whole MilkPowder

+1.2%$ 2 705

Documents

Milk Market Situation - Vlaanderen · 1/10/2019 · 8 6 3 0 7 7 9 3 2 2 1 8 7 1 7 8 7 5 9 9 4 3 3 8 7 7 4 3 7 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 cy mt gr ie fi at dk nl se de