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Models and Scenarios Towards 2050 Perspective-The National Modelling Level
MILESECURE-2050Multidimensional Impact of the
Low-carbon European Strategy on Energy Security, and Socio-Economic Dimension up to 2050 perspective
WP4 tasks, by Zygmunt Parczewski & Adam Umer
IEn & EnergSys, Poland
EUROPEAN SOCIETIES FACING ENERGY TRANSITIONThe challenge of the human factor and energy security, up to 2050
Rome, February 17-18, 2015
This project has received funding from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement no. 320169
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MILESECURE-2050 European Societies Facing Energy Transition Rome, February 17-18, 2015
Table of contents
Introduction (key issues; differences vs. similarities)
Methodological approach – general scheme
SMET ’fuzzy’ model – main features
General scheme
LCE- technologies
Energy security & BM
CGE-FEU and MESO-Impact expected results
Models and Scenarios Towards 2050 Perspective-The National Modelling Level
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MILESECURE-2050 European Societies Facing Energy Transition Rome, February 17-18, 2015
Societal energy transition at National level -
Key issues:
Significant differences in socio-economic development and welfare – need different treatment and distinct modelling (DE vs. PL)
Significant differences in energy mix and balances (clean – dirty; imported – own; more political vs. market oriented, …)
Societal aspects in NMS’12 are very new (innovative vs.)
Local democracy (communes) - still not enough active(very short history and unfavourable political system, DK vs. PL)
Introduction
Models and Scenarios Towards 2050 Perspective-The National Modelling Level
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MILESECURE-2050 European Societies Facing Energy Transition Rome, February 17-18, 2015
Significant differences in socio-economic developmentThe National Modelling Level
The results of EU states clusters - complete set of 67 diagnostic variables; data for 2012
The results of EU states clusters – sub-set of 43 socio-cultural variables; data for 2012
Introduction-Socio-economic
development
„An analysis and evaluation of the EU statesdevelopment coherence – some social and economicaspects” –
(CLAN report, Nov. 2014)
General conclusions (based on 2000 – 2012 data sets):a) Significant economic changes has occurred (NMS’10 vs. EU’15)b) Socio – cultural changes proved to be much more stable (resistant to changes)
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MILESECURE-2050 European Societies Facing Energy Transition Rome, February 17-18, 2015
Significant differences in socio-economic developmentThe National Modelling Level
Source: Self-analysis on the basis of Credit Suisse Global Wealth Databook 2013
Introduction- Socio-economic development
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MILESECURE-2050 European Societies Facing Energy Transition Rome, February 17-18, 2015
CO2 emission – how to bridge the gap? (social behaviours, …)
WP1: Deliverable 1.4; Data source: http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/14/data.htm
Introduction- Socio-economic development – CO2 emissions (EU’28)
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MILESECURE-2050 European Societies Facing Energy Transition Rome, February 17-18, 2015
Macro- models applied –national level
Methodological approach – general scheme
& SMET highlights
Models and Scenarios Towards 2050 Perspective-The National Modelling Level
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MILESECURE-2050 European Societies Facing Energy Transition Rome, February 17-18, 2015
Socio-economic macro-modelling Methodological approach – general scheme
General idea of CGE – FEU modelling process(national level analysis) by EnergSys and IEn
WP3 human factors transformation
SMET(fuzzy model)
IMACLIM(National economy)
CGE-FEU(base year 2010)
EnS-Macro(growth model)
FEU-module(Final Energy Use technologies in
residential and transport sectors)
Key assumptions:Demography,Accumulation rate,Productivity, other
Labour force;Capital stock
Techno-limits paths, costs and paceof their implementation:• RES energy supply techno.• FEU (residential + transport)
International fuel and ETS „carbon” prices paths
Meso-Impact modules
(industry, households)
•Country GDP•GVA structure•Energy prices•Employment•CO2 emissions•Households income•Production by sectors’•Wages•…
Market penetration LCE technologies –data gathering and „S-curves” estimation
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MILESECURE-2050 European Societies Facing Energy Transition Rome, February 17-18, 2015
Socio-economic modelling SMET – ‚fuzzy’ model general idea
Option 1
Option 2
Option ’3’
P3
Societal Factors by E, S, P domains
(WP2 & WP3)
Societal processes (WP3 out ~ WP4 inp
P1
E3
S7
En
S5
E6
Pk
SMET(Socio Metric
Energy Transition
„fuzzy” Model)
IMACLIM-R(EU’28)
&
CGE model(EU states)DE, IT PL
SMET outputs: LCE-technologies
(S-curve saturation level –RES vs. SOS)
Societal parameters (S-curve pace of implementation –country specific)
Institutional inertia
Other,
WP4 – Modelling approach, analyses, verification and validation issues
Iterative process (if necessary)
Societal Energy Transition Consolidating societal input data into quantitative parameters
S1
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MILESECURE-2050 European Societies Facing Energy Transition Rome, February 17-18, 2015
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MILESECURE-2050 European Societies Facing Energy Transition Rome, February 17-18, 2015
Socio-economic modelling SMET – ‚fuzzy’ model highlights (LCE-technologies)
A1- Production and delivery of energy 1. Wind farms onshore2. Wind farms offshore3. PV-Big solar farms4. Other LCE technologies
e.g. Adv_CCGT,…
A2– Individual energy use by households5. Thermo-modern. buildings6. New H-efficient buildings7. Passive buildings8. PV (small)9. Solar panels 10. Small wind turbines11. H-efficient electrical appliances12. Shifts: car – public transport
(urban & trains)13. Shift: car – bikes & walk 14. Hybrid & EV cars
A3– Other energy customers – public & business
15. Thermo-modern. public & commercial buildings
16. Shift: road freight transport – train17. Liquid biofuels18. Hybrids & EV vans and buses
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MILESECURE-2050 European Societies Facing Energy Transition Rome, February 17-18, 2015
Socio-economic modelling
SMET – ‚fuzzy’ model highlights - energy security
Thermal power large units
Thermal power –S & M units
Nuclear energy
Other RES, e.g. Bio-
Intermittent sources (wind +
pv)Renewables
Assumed max. share of installed RES-
intermittent capa.Secure power units structure(by fuels and capacity units)
Power security balancing (daily, seasonal) – country specific:1. „Security margin” ~ share of intermittent RES in total Net Gen. Capacity2. Structure of Net Generating Capacity
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MILESECURE-2050 European Societies Facing Energy Transition Rome, February 17-18, 2015
Socio-economic macro-modelling
CGE-FEU – OUTPUTS - validation
EU states
EU’27BM – scenarios(EU documents)
Milesecure scenarios(Imaclim & CGE-FEU)
Definition of indicatorsCategories:
- Demography- Economy- Energy- Emissions- Prices
…
Categories:- Demography- Economy- Energy- Emissions- Prices
…Milesecure outputs & BM Indicators comparison Ok?
STOPYes
No
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MILESECURE-2050 European Societies Facing Energy Transition Rome, February 17-18, 2015
Key R& D expected results of the EU states: DE, IT, PLin foresighted period of 2010 – 2030
CGE-FEU & SMET:
First time societal energy transition impact will be modelled taking into account advanced results of „human energy concept” - (WP2 & WP3)
GDP growth rates and the national economies structural changes influenced by LCE scenarios
Societal energy transition impact on supply and demand side techno-impl.
CGE-FEU and MESO-Impact main resultsThe National LCE- scenarios outputs
MESO-Impact modules (linked to CGE-FEU outputs):
Changes of energy costs in energy-intensive branches ( threaten by CL-phenomenon)
Changes of households energy costs vs. fuel poverty
The EU state representatives position on energy transition cost curve to be build
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MILESECURE-2050 European Societies Facing Energy Transition Rome, February 17-18, 2015
Thank you for attention
Zygmunt Parczewski & Adam UmerIEn & EnergSys;
(Institute of Power Engineering; Systems Research Ltd.)