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Critical Aspects and Future Challenges Within the NZ
Forestry Supply Chain
Forests + Wood Processing
• 3% NZ GDP• Export earnings $4.7 billion• 70% of production is exported (47% as logs)• Very capital intensive: $20.9 billion invested• Strategic Action Plan to get to $12 billion export earnings
by 2022
Forecasts are based on assumptions. This scenario assumes total wood availability is non-declining until 2034. Large scaleOwners availability is at the owners stated intention until 2015 and then non declining.
-
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000Re
cove
rabl
e V
olum
e (m
3 )
Forest Harvest - Radiata pine
Historic Harvest (Actual) Forecast Harvest (All Owners) Forecast Harvest (Large-scale Owners)
Historic Harvest (Actual) Forecast Harvest
HS&E
12REGIONAL
AUTHORITIES
41LOCAL
AUTHORITIES
Compliance Critical to Productive Profitable Business
•Diversity across RA’s and LA’s•National Environmental Standard (NES)
Activities and Tasks Within the Supply Chain
• Harvest Planning & Engineering (Critical)• Harvesting (meat ind)• Transport & Logistics• SOP (Sales and Operational Planning)
Harvest Planning & Engineering
• Paper plan• Field visit to assess attributes and hazards• Generate a prescription• HS&E• Road line crew to strip trees• Construct roads and landings
Current Situation • Summary of existing engineering principles• Barriers to implementation of best practice
Opportunities • Risk management processes• LiDAR and engineering design processes• Sub-grade compaction and improvement
Issues & Opportunities
Existing Body of Knowledge
• The science of building roads is well established
• Geotechnical engineering• Soil mechanics• Pavement design• Hydrology / Hydraulic’s• Strength of materials• Geometric design
Barriers to Implementing Best Engineering Practice
• Expertise and skills to use new technology is limited.• The sheer scale of the national forest roading programme• A poor forward roading position • A poor understanding of engineering principles
Why Invest in Better Technology/Engineering
• Based on a harvest of 26.12 million m3 (2011 year end)
• With a 47% cable and 53% ground based
• With respective average roading costs of $10 and $5/m3
• The collective national forest roading prgramme is in the order of
$200 million (plus)pa• 14,000kms.
• New forests will require an investment of $1.5 billion over next 10 years, in roading
The Risk• Infrastructure projects are notorious for running over
budget and time
• One 2003 study carried out by Flyvberg et al looking at the success of infrastructure projects concluded: Cost escalation/over-runs on infrastructure projects are the norm
Cost estimates used in decision making are often misleading and are characterised by large standard deviations
Roading projects typically exceed estimates by 20%
• The implication if applied to the collective NZ forest roading programme over the next ten years is a
$400 million cost escalation risk
Risk Management and Decision Making
• How reliable are your estimates?
• How certain are you that the estimates can be delivered?
No estimate should be given without a probability statement
LiDAR (Light Detection & Ranging)
• Provides high quality digital terrain information • Improved risk identification
Practical Application of LiDAR Standard 1:5,000 harvest plan DTM (with roads & landings)
The Low Hanging Fruit
• Greater attention to sub-grade compaction
• Improved pavement construction practice
• Potential cost savings to the industry over the next ten years if pavement depths can be reduced by 50-100mm
$125 - $250 million
(Based on 14,000 km x 4m wide and assuming an average delivered metal cost of $45/m3)
Removing Barriers to Improving Sub-grade
• Establish and maintain a forward position
• Project management (operational planning)
• Manage the road-line salvage / construction interface
• Realise the value of these:
Harvesting
• Ground based; 350 to 1200t/day
• Cable hauler;180 to 350t/day
Critical Aspects and Challenges• HS&E
Mechanised log makingQuality and valueACoP Safety in Health in Forestry Operations i.e. grapple hauler
extractionEnvironmental compliance
• Productivity gains Improved planningMechanised felling and bunching for haulersMechanised log makingMaintain and improve quality/value out-turn
Transport & Logistics
• On Highway
• Off Highway
• Rail
Critical Aspects and Challenges
• Ageing workforceReplenishment programRecruitment campaignAccelerated Driver Licensing
• HS&E Improved TrainingLTSC Bronze, Silver, GoldHPMV’s (reduced fuel consumption and carbon
emissions)
Critical Aspects and Challenges
• Efficiency and Productivity gainsWork with Port companies to better utilise time and
equipment, as opposed to grizzling about storage capacity - COLLABORATION!!
24 x 7, 4 on 4 off x 7Technology (GPS, data transfer etc.) Improve Port throughput ($5m plus per annum)High Productivity Motor Vehicle’s (HPMV’s)
Critical Aspects and Challenges
• HPMV’sLong time in the makingNZTA working with usSecond to general freight31m tonnes pa20% > productivity, 9% < fuel use8,000 less transactions through
Rotorua paHuge Potential yet to be realised
HPMV
NOT HPMV!
HPMV’s cont’d
• ChallengesLocal authorities struggling with this initiativeEnforcement, increased axle loading tolerancesPavement and bridge upgrades
Summary
• Critical AspectsGreenfields roading task ahead is ENORMOUSProductivity and efficiency gains extended hours etcHPMV’s up and running
• ChallengesUp skill and improve planning & engineering personal and
processesManage the increasing volume effectivelyCOLLABORATION across all stakeholders, including central and
local government
Investigating Alternative Options in Log Transport….