Migration in a World of Global Change · - Current systems still focus on migration/asylum nexus - At international level: transitional period in managing migration 4. Migration management

1

Migration in a World of

Global Change

New Strategies & Policies

for New Realities

2

Physical

mobility

Realities of

present-day

migration

Vital linkPolicy

mobility

Policy

responses,

strategies, &

mechanisms

3

1. Changes in International Migration

1. Volumes: more people on the move

Source: UN Pop. Div. Total population

Migrants

Chart 1. Migrants vs. total population (millions)

3258 3,980 4,7206,300

7584

105

175

230

8,077

1965 1975 1985 2002 2050

4

2. More types of migration

- Skilled: considerable increase


Chart 2. Number of H-B1 visas issued by U.S. 1998-2003

Source: U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service

65,000

115,000 115,000 107,500

195,000 195,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003


5

2. More types of movement


- Tourism: high number of arrivals


Source: World Tourism Organization

Chart 3. Numbers of worldwide arrivals (millions)

455.9550.4

687.3 684.1 702.6

1000

1,560

1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2010 2020


6

2. More types of movement

- Study and research

- Irregular outflows

- Family reunification

- Business

- Forced migration




- Tourism: high number of arrivals

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3. More destinations

- Past: a handful of “immigration” countries

- Present: almost all countries affected

Major movements 1960s

Major movements 1990s


8

D

4. More routes and travel strategies

- Short(er)-term

- Multi-stage

- Circular

3. More destinations


2-5 years

CA B

A

B C

D

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2. Driving forces behind today’s mobile world

- Increase of world population: expected to continue until 2050

a. Demographic trends

Source: UN Pop. Div.

6.076.45

6.837.19

7.54 7.85 8.13 8.37 8.59 8.77 8.91

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Chart 4: World population to the year 2050 (billions)

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- Ageing of developed world’s population

- Younger, more dynamic population in emerging economies

Source: UN Pop. Div.

Germany

11.1%

23.2%

Mexico

20.5%

6.9%

Japan

23.3%

12.7%

Vietnam

33.4%

4.8%

Population 15-25Population +60

- Seek opportunities abroad



Chart 5. Age brackets as % of total population in selected countries

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- Ageing of developed world’s population

- Younger, more dynamic population in emerging economies

- Migration increasingly seen as a

desirable life choice


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- Massive rural to urban migration

- Growth of cities

13

- Today’s migrant is not a

male head of household –

more than 50% of migrants

are women


48.5 48 48.5 51.7 52.4

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Chart 6: Women migrants as percentage of total migrants

- Feminization of migration

Source: Migration Policy Institute

14

- Developed world: open societies

- Internal freedom of movement

- Liberal access for tourism, business, etc.

- Move towards more multi-ethnic societies


15

- Trans-national communities: considerable

growth in past four decades

- Will act as support structure and basis for further migration

(family reunification) regardless of economic cycles


Austria Germany Spain Sweden Switzerland Canada U.S.

299

761

4174,363

4,845

7,296

226

398

895

390

456

477952

1,065

1,424

3,900

4,558

5,133

19,797

30,466

16,435

Chart 7: Numbers of foreign born in selected countries (Hundreds of thousands)

1985

1990

2001

Source: National Authorities and Council of Europe

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b. Economic factors

- Income disparities


600 1,500 2,400

15,000

1,50012,000

20,000

35,000

2,500

25,000

40,000

120,000

Albania Phillipines Brazil U.S.

Chart 8. Average yearly incomes in selected countries

Source UNDP

Low-income

Medium income

High income

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b. Economic factors


- Income growth

- Prosperity has two stage effect on

movement: outbound first, stabilization

second

- Typical migrant not in the lowest

income range. More towards highest.

- Move from well to better


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b. Economic factors


- Income growth


36,000

28,000

14,000

4,000

24,000

18,000

7,000

2,000

1960 1970 1980 2000

Chart 9. Cost of air travel on selected routes: 1960 - 2000

New Dehli - New York

Nairobi - London- Cost of transportation

Dollars costs adjusted for 2000 buying power parity

Source: IATA

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- Integrated world economy

- Economies: pace of change

accelerating, requires varying-profile,

more mobile labour force to service

- Money, goods and services flow more freely

across borders. People inevitably follow.


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c. Forced migration still a presence

- IDPs: largest form

of forced migration

- Persecution/conflict

- Environmental disaster

and degradation


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3. Implications for policy makers

1. Migration: considerably more multi-faceted than

several decades ago. Requires multi-faceted policies.

2. Reflects world with faster pace of change

at all stages of the migration cycle

3. Implications at both

individual and societal level

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4. Considerable momentum behind migration

- Enforcement of restrictive migration policies expensive

- Economies deprived of labour of all skill levels

- Entails rolling back civil liberties

- Not irreversible but considerable cost to “opposing”

it for both origin & destination countries.


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5. Choice to be made:

- Manage migration and

harness its positive potential

- Cede control to ‘market’

forces: irregular outflows,

trafficking/smuggling

Balance facilitation and control


24

- Current systems still focus on migration/asylum nexus

- At international level: transitional period in

managing migration

4. Migration management systems:

in step with realities?

7584

92105

136 142

175

230

4.36 3 0.911.8 17.2 18.3

11.7

1965 1975 1980 1985 1990 1992 2000 2050

Chart 10. Refugees vs. migrants 1965-2050 (millions)

Migrants

Refugees

Source: UNHCR, UN Pop.Div

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- Systems address minority percentage of movements





managing migration

8.00%

92.00%

Migrants

Refugees

Chart 11. Migrants, refugees as average % of total movements

(1965-2000)

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- Not well adapted to reap positive outcomes of migration



- Systems address minority percentage of movements



managing migration

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1. Link between migration and development

- Remittances: considerable potential

5. Policy challenges

Official Remittances

FDI Inflows

Private capital market

Official inflows

Chart 12. Remittances vs. other inflows in developing countries (billions)

-50

0

50

100

150

200

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

22.6

17.7

21.3

41.2 72.3

170.3

-3.9

3.7

Source: IMF, World Bank

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- Skills transfer

- Investment flows by expatriates/immigrants

- Regular labour migration/exchange schemes

- Remittances: considerable potential

1. Link between migration and development


29

- Passage

2. Migration as a life-cycle

- Integration

- Long(er)-term

perspective- Immediate

post-arrival

- Pre-departure


30

Offers insights into:

- Challenges for governments

- Policy solutions

- Difficulties facing migrants

at each step of the way

- Passage

- Integration

- Long(er)-term

perspective- Immediate

post-arrival

- Pre-departure


2. Migration as a life-cycle

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- Preparation for

migration (information)

- Recruitment

- Health screening

- Migrant rights

a. Pre-departure

- Cultural

orientation

- Language

training


32

- Protection

- Security

b. Passage


33

- Facilitated

entry

c. Post-arrival

- Reception

facilities

- First-stage practical

‘survival’ skills


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- Integration

- Citizenship

- Harnessing potential of

immigrant communities

- Remittances, investment, business

development

- Skills transfer & return

d. Longer term


35

Migration &

Development

Facilitated

MigrationMigration

Control

Forced

Migration

Four pillars to a coherent migration policy

Deal effectively with major challenges

Reap benefits of migration

Address human aspects of migration


3. Comprehensive approach

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Migration and

development

Facilitated

migration

Migration

Control

Forced

migration

Cross-cutting activities

Technical co-operation

Protection of rights

Information gathering and research

Policy debate and guidance

Regional and international co-operation

Advocacy, Public information and Education

Migration health

Return of Qualified Nationals

Exchange of expertise

Remittances

Relations with Diasporas

Micro-credit schemes

Targeted assistance

Brain drain and gains

Workers and Professionals

Family Reunification

Consular Services

Policy Harmonization

Recruitment

Documentation

Language Training

Cultural Orientation

Integration

Capacity-Building

Border Management

Policy Harmonization

Ass. Returns & Reintegration

Interdiction

Trafficking/smuggling

Stranded migrants

Asylum and refugees

Resettlement

Repatriation

Integration

Internally Displaced Persons

Post-Conflict Recovery

Demobilization

Claims and Compensations

Elections and Referenda


37

Geneva Migration Group

Global Commission

Berne Initiative

IOM Council

International Dialogue

on Migration

4. Discourse at global level


38

Regionalization – RCPs on every continent

Increased cooperation: exchange of data & information

More comprehensive discourse evolving

4. Discourse at global level


39

Governments at various levels

IO’s

NGOs

Employers

Recruitment agencies

5. Partnerships


40

7. Conclusion

1. Mobility - prevalent feature of modern life

2. Choice: managed or disruptive

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3. Policies need to balance:

7. Conclusion

- and on the individual

- and facilitation

- negative impacts

- control

- positive outcomes

- impact on societies

42

IOM Vision

Orderly migration: beneficial for societies

Promotes individual and societal development

7. Conclusion

43

Physical mobility

Should be met with

7. Conclusion

Policy mobility

Documents

Migration in a World of Global Change · - Current systems still focus on migration/asylum nexus - At international level: transitional period in managing migration 4. Migration management