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Where will we be in 2050?
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Michael WeberDeputy Executive Director for Operations
U.S. Nuclear Regulatory CommissionSeptember 15, 2010
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Overview
• Welcome• Vision• Where will we be in 2050• Insights• Bottom
Line
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Vision
• Essential in leadership– Communicate a better future– Inspire
commitment and motivation– Leverage uncertainty
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– Assess the challenge and plan the journey• Risky forecasts
– “Energy too cheap to meter” Lewis Strauss– “200 NPPs by
2000”
• “If you don’t know where you are going, any road will get you
there.” Lewis Carroll
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Where Will We Be in 2050?
• Number of nuclear power plants?• Tons of spent fuel?• Numbers
of casks?• Reprocessed fuel?• Operating geologic repositories?
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Nuclear Power Plants
• World– Today – 438 operating plants– 2050 – 900? 590 –
1415*
• U.S.– Today – 104 operating plants– 2050 – 125? 130 – 260*
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Source: Extrapolated from EIA, DOE/EIA-0383 (2010)*IAEA
Reference Data Series No. 1 (1 GW/plant)
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Total and Nuclear Capacity - 2009
15002000250030003500
Total Hi
0500
10001500 Total Hi
Total LoNuclear HiNuclear Low
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Total and Nuclear Capacity - 2050
15002000250030003500
Total Hi
7
0500
10001500 Total Hi
Total LoNuclear HiNuclear Low
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Tons of Spent Fuel
• World– Today
• 325,000 tHM produced110 000 tHM d• 110,000 tHM reprocessed
– 2050• > 800,000 tHM produced• > 300,000 tHM
reprocessed
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Source: Extrapolated from ARIUS (2010)
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Growing Spent Fuel Inventory
Cumulative Used Nuclear Fuel Scenarios
200,000
250,000
s
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50,000
100,000
150,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
Met
ric T
ons
Reference: Crozat, March 2010
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Numbers of Spent Fuel Casks
• U.S.– Today – 1200 casks– 2050 - > 2200 casks
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Geologic Repositories
• Today – U.S. – Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (only defense
transuranic waste)
• 2050 – U.S. (WIPP) and several national repositories
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Looking Back from 2050
• Nuclear power plants built 90 years ago• Fuel transported that
is 80-90 years old• Cooler and less radioactive, but more
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brittle?• Optimum materials for baskets, seals,
casks?• Sufficient safeguards controls and
measures when placed in the cask?
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Insights from this Forecast
• Safety and security remain paramount• Environmental
sustainability and
energy security are important and
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complementary goals• An integrated approach today can
enhance flexibility, efficiency, and coherency
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Implications for CFD
• Reliance on CFD analysis will increase– Operating reactors–
New reactors– ReprocessingReprocessing– Transportation– Storage
• Simulations need to be benchmarked and validated
• Your work today builds the foundation
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Bottom Line
• Given the importance of nuclear safety and security, it is
important that we “get it right”
• Thanks
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