Michael S Wright Director, Greenstreet Berman Ltd T: 020 3102 2117

National FSECToolkit Conference

2013

Fire and rescue response time fatality rate relationships: IRS

based updates and new FSEC modelling routines

Michael S Wright

Director, Greenstreet Berman Ltd

T: 020 3102 2117

[email protected]


2013

Aims• Replace fire & rescue fatality rate

relationships with regressions using latest IRS data

• Model non fatal casualties• Align FSEC & IRS special service

categories• Improve time of day modelling• IRS date supplied for 31/3/ 2009 to

30/09/2011


2013

Screening of special services

• Fatality rate• Response

time relationship

• Total number of cases

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

% o

f all

spec

ial

serv

ice

deat

hs


2013 0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

2.24 7.75 12.85 17.89 22.91 27.93 32.94 46.48

Fatalities as a per

cent of all FCRs

First response time (Minutes)

RTCs

Effecting entry to medical cases

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

3.16 14.83 28.98

Per cent of FCRs

First response time (minutes)

Fatal Slight or rescued Serious injury


2013

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

3.16 14.83 28.98

Fatalities as a per

of all FCRs


Other transport extrications

Other transport release of persons

Other transport other

Other transport standby

Other transport make vehicle safe

Other transport advice only

Other transport

• Also checked sub categories for other types of special services


2013

Alignment of new to current FSEC special service categories

Current FSEC category

Proposal Special service IDs

Road Traffic Collision Retain 1 and 6Extrications Redefine as Other

Rescue60, 61, 62, 63, 67

Other Special Services

Redefine as Other Transport rescues

10 and 15

Lift release Delete -Lock in /lock out Delete -Rescue from height Replace with Suicide 270 and 271Line rescue Replace with co and

first responder 282 and 283

HAZCHEM Delete -Rescue from water Retain 30, 31 and 32


2013• Evidence of relationship with serious

casualties and deaths

y = 0.0043x + 0.2087R² = 0.8572

y = 0.0024x + 0.0202R² = 0.7544

1%

6%

11%

16%

21%

26%

31%

36%

41%

46%

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Casualties as a fraction of RTC FCRs

1st response time (minutes)

Serious injuries

Fatalities

Revised response time relationships (RTCs)


2013

Impact of second response time (RTCs)

• Tend to show increased fatality rate as second response gets longer

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

12%

1 to 5 6 to 10 11 to 15 16 to 20 21 to 25 26 to 30 31 to 35

Fatalitiesas a % of FCR

incidents

Second appliance response time (minutes)

1 to 5

6 to 10

11 to 15

16 to 20

21 to 25

26 to 30

31 to 35

First applianceresponse time

(minutes)


2013

Second appliance & serious casualty models

Second response time• No

– Water Rescues, Suicides

– Other Transport Incidents

– Medical Incidents• Yes

– RTC – Other Rescue

Serious injury model• No

– Suicides, Water, Other Transport

• Yes– RTC– Medical– Other Rescue


2013

Ratio of fastest to slowest response time fatality rates

• 5.5 times for RTCs• 18.6 times for Other Transport rescues• 2.5 times for Other Rescues• 12 times for Water rescues• 2.4 times for Medical Incidents• 3.2 times for Suicides


2013

Impact on predicted deaths

• 22.5% more deaths than the current FSEC functions

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

RTCs Other transport rescues

Other rescues

Water rescues

Medical incidents

Suicides

Number of deaths

Current FSEC prediction

Proposed function

Reported deaths


2013

Dwellings

• Not much change in response time fatality relationship

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

0 to 5 6 to 10 11 to 15 16 to 20 >20

Fatalities as a % of FCRs

First response time

2006 FDR1 analysis

2012 IRS analysis

2006 risk definition

2002 risk definitions


2013

Dwelling serious non fatal casualties

• Weak relationship

y = 0.037e0.0234x

R² = 0.3416

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Serious injury as a fraction of

FCRs



2013

Dwelling 2nd and 3rd response times

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

1 to 5 6 to 10 11 to 15 16 to 20 21 to 25

Fatalities as a % of all FCRs

Arrival time of second appliance (minutes)

1 to 5

6 to 10

11 to 15

16 to 20

Arrival time of 1st appliance

Only 1 appliance incidents

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

1 to 5 6 to 10 11 to 15 16 to 20 21 to 25 26 to 30 31 to 35

Fatalities as a % of all FCRs

Arrival time of third appliance (minutes)

1 to 5

6 to 10

11 to 15

Arrival time of 1st and

2nd appliance


2013

Dwelling – One vs 2+ appliance incidents

• Lower fatality rates if just one appliance

y = 0.0129e0.0668x

R² = 0.9212

y = 0.0229e0.06x

R² = 0.9388

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Fatalitiesas a fraction

of FCRs


1 appliance incidents

2+ appliance incidents


2013

Dwelling type fatality rates

• Really related to type of dwelling• Developed dwelling type risk factors


2013

• Can determine a relationship

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

<10 10 to 20 >20

% of FCRs


Rescues

Fatalities

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

Vulnerable Sleeping Work Public Education Prison

Fatalitiesas a % of all FCRs

Type of Other Building

• Building type important

Other Buildings


2013

Individual & Societal Risk

• Model each and add together• Big impact on results

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

All HMOs Other

Dea

ths

per a

nnum

New prediction

Actual

Old prediction


2013

Time periodsEnable modelling of impact of change

shifts systems:• Split risk by time period• Allow finer modelling of shifts• Flexible time period boundaries for

shifts• Minimal change in results• Shows impact of (e.g.) removing

appliance at night


2013

Conclusions• Results sensitive to every second of

change in response time• Includes serious non fatal casualties &

second appliance times where applicable• Far more accurate modelling of Other

Buildings• More accurate special service modelling• Can model impact of change in shift

systems• Consistent with IRS• ...minimal extra work for users – all

optional

Documents

Michael S Wright Director, Greenstreet Berman Ltd T: 020 3102 2117